Housing Prices and Money Demand: Empirical Evidence in Selected MENA Countries

2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nadia Mbazia ◽  
Mouldi Djelassi
Keyword(s):  
Money Demand ◽  
House Prices ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
House Price ◽  
Structural Features ◽  
Demand Model ◽  
Mena Countries ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Dynamic Relationships

Abstract This paper examines the links between housing and money empirically in a money demand framework for a panel of five Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries using quarterly data from 2007Q3 to 2014Q4 with the inclusion of house prices as a variable representing the developments in housing markets. We applied the Pool Mean Group Estimation technique to estimate the long-run and short-run dynamic relationships in money demand model. Empirical results provide the evidence that higher house prices lead to a rise in M2 demand in long-run and short-run estimations. This finding may explain the importance influence of the house price developments on monetary policy in MENA countries. The results confirm that the cross-country heterogeneity of money holdings is also connected with structural features of the housing market.

scholarly journals International Real Estate Review

2012 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-42
Author(s):  
Heeho Kim ◽  
◽  
SaeWoon Park ◽  
Sun Hye Lee ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
House Prices ◽  
House Price ◽  
Bank Lending ◽  
Government Policies ◽  
High Price ◽  
Subprime Crisis ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Price Escalation ◽  
Housing Submarket

This paper studies the abnormal price behavior of Kangnam, a premium (high price) housing submarket in Seoul, Korea, which addresses the correlation between house prices, bank lending, and other factors, including income. Kangnam experienced the most dramatic price escalation during the study period (1999-2009) despite Korean government policies to stabilize house prices in 2005 and the U.S. subprime crisis in 2008. The empirical result shows that even though the house price in a premium market is, to some degree, positively influenced by income, it is not affected by bank lending in the short-run while negatively affected in the long-run. This suggests that a premium housing submarket has a peculiar price dynamics of its own unlike the other submarkets which seem to comply more or less with our notion of a general economic theory, especially in terms of house prices and bank lending.

scholarly journals Untangling the nonlinear “knots” of UK’s housing prices

2019 ◽  
Vol 46 (5) ◽  
pp. 1083-1103
Author(s):  
Constantinos Alexiou ◽  
Sofoklis Vogiazas
Keyword(s):  
Housing Market ◽  
House Prices ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
Positive Association ◽  
Research Area ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Nonlinear Ardl ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Uk

Purpose Housing prices in the UK offer an inspiring, yet a complex and under-explored research area. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the critical factors that affect UK’s housing prices. Design/methodology/approach The authors utilize the recently developed nonlinear ARDL approach of Shin et al. (2014) over the period 1969–2016. Findings The authors find that both the long-run and short-run impact of the price-to-rent (PTR) ratio and credit-to-GDP ratio on house prices (HP) is asymmetric whilst ambiguous results are established for mortgage rates, industrial production and equities. Apart from the novel framework of analysis, this study also establishes a positive association between HP and the PTR ratio which suggests a speculative behaviour and could imply the formation of a housing bubble. Originality/value It is the first study for the UK housing market that explores the underlying fundamental relationships by looking at nonlinearities hence, allowing HP to be tied by asymmetric relationships in the long as well as in the short run. Modelling the inherent nonlinearities enhances significantly the understanding of UK housing market which can prove useful for policymaking and forecasting purposes.

scholarly journals House Price Convergence on the Primary and Secondary Markets: Evidence from Polish Provincial Capitals

2019 ◽  
Vol 27 (4) ◽  
pp. 62-73 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mateusz Tomal
Keyword(s):  
Driving Forces ◽  
House Prices ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
House Price ◽  
Secondary Markets ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Convergence Clubs ◽  
Shape Pattern ◽  
Convergence Model

Abstract The aim of this study is to identify whether there is a common house price trend across provincial capitals in Poland. The log t regression is the main method of analysis. Additionally, traditional convergence tests based on the concepts of β- and σ-convergence are used. The obtained results indicate that the cities do not share a common price in the long-run. There are, however, convergence clubs on both primary and secondary markets. In each club, house prices across cities tend to converge to their own steady state. Moreover, research on the driving forces of convergence reports that factors affecting housing prices differ among the clubs. Therefore, policymakers should adjust housing policies in accordance with the characteristics of a given club. In turn, the σ-convergence model demonstrated a very interesting finding, namely, a U-shape pattern of convergence, both on the primary and secondary markets. This pattern is strictly correlated with the level of prices on the markets.

scholarly journals Empirical Analysis of House Price Bubble: A Case Study on Malaysia

2016 ◽  
Vol 11 (12) ◽  
pp. 127
Author(s):  
Fong Kean Yan ◽  
Yap Lya Keng ◽  
Kwek Kien Teng
Keyword(s):  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
House Prices ◽  
House Price ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Price Bubble ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Residential Properties ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
House Price Bubble

The main objective of this research is to investigate the relationship between house price with macroeconomics variables - Gross Domestic Product per capita, inflation rate, Base Lending Rate and amount of household loan disbursed for purchase of residential properties. We try to use these variables to examine if they could trigger a housing bubble to burst in Malaysia. Granger Causality results show that there is univariate relationship from house price to Gross Domestic Product per capita. Though house price and other macroeconomics variables do not Granger–cause each other in short run, but these variables are cointegrated in the long run, i.e. there is no evidence of house price bubble in Malaysia. We suggest that soaring house prices in Malaysia is being supported by the large inflow of foreign funds into the housing sector and the unresponsive supply of houses.

Housing Bubble in Penang Prediction and Determinants

2015 ◽  
Vol 73 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
Loh Yun Lu ◽  
Janice YM Lee ◽  
Usama Al-mulali ◽  
Nurul Afiqah Ahmad ◽  
Izran Sarrazin Mohammad
Keyword(s):  
Price Index ◽  
House Prices ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
House Price ◽  
Decomposition Analysis ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Housing Bubble ◽  
Least Squares Regression ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

House prices in Malaysian cities increased drastically in the past few years, notably in the state of Penang.  The existence of a housing bubble is speculated by major property players. This paper ascertains whether a housing bubble exists in Penang and explores the long-run and short-run determinants of Penang residential prices. Quarterly data (2000Q1 to 2012Q2) of House Price Index is the dependent variable and Gross Domestic Product, Consumer Price Index (CPI), Base Lending Rate (BLR) and Housing Supply as independent variables. Econometric model together with fully modified Ordinary Least Squares regression were used to detect the presence of housing bubble in Penang. The determinants of Penang house prices are based on Granger causality and variance decomposition analysis using the vector autoregressive (VAR) model. The results show no evidence of housing bubble in Penang housing market. CPI has both long-run and short run causality relationship with house prices while CPI and BLR explain a large part of housing price variance. Results show changes in inflation and cost of borrowing will greatly affect Penang house prices.  

Exchange rate effect on money demand in Pakistan

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Iffat Zehra ◽  
Muhammad Kashif ◽  
Imran Umer Chhapra
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Money Demand ◽  
Demand Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Non Linear ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Nardl Model

PurposeThis paper aims to examine association of money demand with key macroeconomic variables in Pakistan. The paper also investigates the asymmetric effect of real effective exchange rate (REER) on money demand.Design/methodology/approachThe study employs both linear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model. Annual data from 1970 to 2018 is used which is subjected to non-linearity through partial sum concept. Empirical analysis is conducted to prove if money demand is influenced by currency appreciation or depreciation, for long and short run.FindingsCointegration test indicates existence of a long-run relationship between money demand and its determinants. Results from NARDL model suggest negative relation between money demand and inflation in long and short run. Real income shows positive but a very minimal and insignificant effect on money demand in long and short run. Impact of call money rates is statistically significant and negative on M1 and M2. Wald tests and differing coefficient sign confirm presence of asymmetric relation of REER in long run with M2, whereas in short run we observe a linear, symmetrical relation of REER with M1 and M2. Stability diagnostic tests (CUSUM and CUSUMSQ) verify stability of M2 demand model in Pakistan.Practical implicationsResults signify that role of money demand is imperative as a monetary policy tool and it can be utilized to achieve objective of price stability. Additionally, exchange rate movements should be critically examined by monetary authorities to avoid inflationary pressures resulting from an increase in demand for broad monetary aggregate.Originality/valueThe paper contributes to scarce monetary literature on asymmetrical effects of exchange rate in Pakistan. Impact of variables has been studied through linear approach, but this paper is unique since it attempts to explore non-linear relationships.

scholarly journals Understanding the short- and long-run relationship between vacant allotment and established house prices

2014 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 200-217 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Rossini ◽  
Valerie Kupke
Keyword(s):  
Price Index ◽  
House Prices ◽  
House Price ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Land Prices ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
A Site ◽  
Urban Land Market

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to address a key issue fundamental to the operation of land and housing markets, that is, the relationship between land and house prices. The study identifies possible causation between established house and vacant allotment prices using the metropolitan area of Adelaide, Australia as a case study. Design/methodology/approach – A key outcome of the study is the construction of a Site Adjusted Land Price Index against which a Quality Adjusted House Price Index is compared. Findings – The results show that there is a lagged effect of land prices on house prices and that this is significant at an interval of eight lag periods. The results also imply that the lead lag relationship between established house and vacant allotment prices is not unidirectional. This suggests that, while a change in house prices leads to a change in land prices in the short-run, the long-run position is for increasing land prices to lead to a delayed increase in house prices. Research limitations/implications – Rising house prices do not simply and solely reflect a shortage of land. There are suggested effects both immediate from house to land and delayed from land to house, particularly in a rising market. Originality/value – The lead lag relationships of both indexes are tested using Granger causality estimates to assess whether theoretical Ricardian concepts still hold in a modern urban land market.

scholarly journals International Real Estate Review

2020 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 65-106
Author(s):  
Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee ◽  
◽  
Seyed Ghodsi ◽  
Keyword(s):  
House Prices ◽  
House Price ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Asymmetric Effects ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Almost All ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The U.S

Since oil is used as an input in the production and delivery process, any change in its price can affect almost all sectors of an economy. Researchers have tried to assess the impact of the rising price of oil on domestic production, inflation, investment, the stock market, etc. In order to determine if inflationary effects of rising oil prices have spread to house prices in the U.S., unlike previous research, we investigate the link between oil prices and house prices by using data from each state of the U.S. Furthermore, for the first time, we engage in asymmetry analysis and find short-run asymmetric effects in almost all of the states but short-run cumulative effects or asymmetric impact in 15 states. Although we also find significant long-run asymmetric effects in 26 states, the results reveal that an increase in oil prices has contributed to house price increase in only 11 states and a decrease in oil prices lowered house prices in only three states.

scholarly journals The sources of house price changes in Malaysia

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 335-355 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shiau Hui Kok ◽  
Normaz Wana Ismail ◽  
Chin Lee
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
House Prices ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
House Price ◽  
Housing Demand ◽  
Macroeconomic Shocks ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Macroeconomic Determinants

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the house market in Malaysia from 2002 to 2015. Specifically, the macroeconomic determinants on the house price and house demand are investigated. Design/methodology/approach Structural Vector Autoregressive Regression was adopted to estimate the unexpected changes in both house demand (residential transaction volume) and prices based on economic theoretical reasoning that consider shock from macroeconomic determinants. Findings The transaction volume and real house prices respond to most of the macroeconomic shocks. While the impact of real gross domestic product (GDP) on house prices appears to be stronger and longer in comparison to other macroeconomic shocks, a 60 per cent change in house prices can be explained by real GDP regardless of whether it is in the short run or the long run. The studies also reveal that a positive effective exchange rate plays an important role when demonstrating the transaction volume. Moreover, monetary liquidity plays a major role in justifying the transaction volume. This implies that mortgage lending may have an impact on housing demand. Meanwhile, movements of house prices cannot be explained by the demand in quantity. This signifies that supply has a strong influence in determining the price. Research limitations/implications This study has implications on policymakers of which the interest rate as a cooling measure might not be effective in the short run. The interest rate has very little impact on housing prices. Furthermore, policymakers should address the concerns on speculations, as the results reveal that monetary liquidity and the exchange rate have a strong impact on the housing demand. Originality/value This study seeks to provide answers regarding the recent upsurge of Malaysian housing prices. Besides focusing on the house price changes, this study addresses the role of transaction volume while evaluating the house market, as housing prices are usually downwards rigid. Since the price and transaction volume are both related to the transaction activity, this study is significant and could be a good reflection on the actual demand behaviour in the residential market.

scholarly journals THE DYNAMIC RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN HOUSE PRICES AND OUTPUT: EVIDENCE FROM US METROPOLITAN AREAS

2015 ◽  
Vol 19 (4) ◽  
pp. 336-345 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicholas APERGIS ◽  
Beatrice D. SIMO-KENGNE
Keyword(s):  
House Prices ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
National Level ◽  
House Price ◽  
Personal Income ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Metropolitan Statistical Area ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Capita Personal Income

This paper investigates the long-run and short-term dynamics of 351 US metropolitan statistical area housing prices in relation to personal income. We apply a panel cointegration approach on annual data from 1993 to 2011 and find a long-run relationship between local house prices and per capita personal income. The causal direction is then assessed based on an autoregressive distributed lag specification that also accommodates for error-correction. Results from Granger-causality tests reveal the existence of a bi-directional causality between real house prices and real per capita personal income over both long and short-horizons. Our results continue to be robust, when our bivariate system is extended to include additional MSA-level (employment and population) and national-level variables (real stock price and mortgage interest rate). We conclude that changes in personal income can predict house price movements and vice versa.

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