scholarly journals Beauty and Ugliness of Aggregation over Time: A Survey

2017 ◽  
Vol 68 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nlandu Mamingi
Keyword(s):  
Public Policy ◽  
Time Series ◽  
High Frequency ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
High Frequency Data ◽  
Frequency Data ◽  
Economic Time Series ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Economic Time ◽  
Over Time

AbstractThis paper delivers an up-to-date literature review dealing with aggregation over time of economic time series, e.g. the transformation of high-frequency data to low frequency data, with a focus on its benefits (the beauty) and its costs (the ugliness). While there are some benefits associated with aggregating data over time, the negative effects are numerous. Aggregation over time is shown to have implications for inferences, public policy and forecasting.

FRACTAL STRUCTURE OF FINANCIAL HIGH FREQUENCY DATA

Fractals ◽  
2002 ◽  
Vol 10 (01) ◽  
pp. 13-18 ◽  
Author(s):  
YOSHIAKI KUMAGAI
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Fractal Dimension ◽  
Transaction Costs ◽  
Time Scale ◽  
High Frequency ◽  
Fractal Structure ◽  
Extreme Values ◽  
High Frequency Data ◽  
Frequency Data ◽  
Time Intervals

We propose a new method to describe scaling behavior of time series. We introduce an extension of extreme values. Using these extreme values determined by a scale, we define some functions. Moreover, using these functions, we can measure a kind of fractal dimension — fold dimension. In financial high frequency data, observations can occur at varying time intervals. Using these functions, we can analyze non-equidistant data without interpolation or evenly sampling. Further, the problem of choosing the appropriate time scale is avoided. Lastly, these functions are related to a viewpoint of investor whose transaction costs coincide with the spread.

scholarly journals Does the high-frequency data is helpful for forecasting Russian inflation?

2021 ◽  
Vol 37 (2) ◽  
pp. 318-343
Author(s):  
Dmitriy Tretyakov ◽  
◽  
Nikita Fokin ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
High Frequency ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
High Frequency Data ◽  
Frequency Data ◽  
Policy Regime ◽  
The Future ◽  
Forecasting Inflation

Due to the fact that at the end of 2014 the Central Bank made the transition to a new monetary policy regime for Russia — the inflation targeting regime, the problem of forecasting inflation rates became more relevant than ever. In the new monetary policy regime, it is important for the Bank of Russia to estimate the future inflation rate as quickly as possible in order to take measures to return inflation to the target level. In addition, for effective monetary policy, the households must trust the actions of monetary authorities and they must be aware of the future dynamics of inflation. Thus, to manage inflationary expectations of economic agents, the Central Bank should actively use the information channel, publish accurate forecasts of consumer price growth. The aim of this work is to build a model for nowcasting, as well as short-term forecasting of the rate of Russian inflation using high-frequency data. Using this type of data in models for forecasting is very promising, since this approach allows to use more information about the dynamics of macroeconomic indicators. The paper shows that using MIDAS model with weekly frequency series (RUB/USD exchange rate, the interbank rate MIACR, oil prices) has more accurate forecast of monthly inflation compared to several basic models, which only use low-frequency data.

scholarly journals Multiple STL decomposition in discovering a multi-seasonality of intraday trading volume

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 61-74
Author(s):  
Josip Arneric
Keyword(s):  
High Frequency ◽  
Trading Volume ◽  
Missing Values ◽  
High Frequency Data ◽  
Seasonal Patterns ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Frequency Data ◽  
Seasonal Component ◽  
Univariate Time Series ◽  
Over Time

The seasonal and trend decomposition of a univariate time-series based on Loess (STL) has several advantages over traditional methods. It deals with any periodicity length, enables seasonality change over time, allows missing values, and is robust to outliers. However, it does not handle trading day variation by default. This study offers how to deal with this drawback. By applying multiple STL decompositions of 15-minute trading volume observations, three seasonal patterns were discovered: hourly, daily, and monthly. The research objective was not only to discover if multi-seasonality exists in trading volume by employing high-frequency data but also to determine which seasonal component is most time-varying, and which seasonal components are the strongest or weakest when comparing the variation in the magnitude between them. The results indicate that hourly seasonality is the strongest, while daily seasonality changes the most. A better understanding of trading volume multiple patterns can be very helpful in improving the performance of trading algorithms.

scholarly journals Realized Measures to Explain Volatility Changes over Time

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 125
Author(s):  
Christos Floros ◽  
Konstantinos Gkillas ◽  
Christoforos Konstantatos ◽  
Athanasios Tsagkanos
Keyword(s):  
High Frequency ◽  
Realized Volatility ◽  
High Frequency Data ◽  
Leverage Effect ◽  
Frequency Data ◽  
Specific Group ◽  
Volatility Feedback ◽  
Changes Over Time ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Over Time

We studied (i) the volatility feedback effect, defined as the relationship between contemporaneous returns and the market-based volatility, and (ii) the leverage effect, defined as the relationship between lagged returns and the current market-based volatility. For our analysis, we used daily measures of volatility estimated from high frequency data to explain volatility changes over time for both the S&P500 and FTSE100 indices. The period of analysis spanned from January 2000 to June 2017 incorporating various market phases, such as booms and crashes. Based on the estimated regressions, we found evidence that the returns of S&P500 and FTSE100 indices were well explained by a specific group of realized measure estimators, and the returns negatively affected realized volatility. These results are highly recommended to financial analysts dealing with high frequency data and volatility modelling.

scholarly journals NON-EQUIDISTANT “BASIC FORM”-FOCUSED GREY VERHULST MODELS (NBFGVMS) FOR ILL-STRUCTURED SOCIO-ECONOMIC FORECASTING PROBLEMS

2017 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 676-694 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammad HASHEM-NAZARI ◽  
Akbar ESFAHANIPOUR ◽  
S.M.T. FATEMI GHOMI
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Iranian Population ◽  
Grey Prediction ◽  
Economic Time Series ◽  
Basic Form ◽  
Economic Forecasting ◽  
Economic Time

Multiple uncertainties complicate socio-economic forecasting problems, especially when relying on ill-conditioned limited data. Such problems are best addressed by grey prediction models such as Grey Verhulst Model (GVM). This paper resolves the incompatibility between GVM’s estimation and prediction by taking its basic form equation as the basis of both. The resultant “Basic Form”-focused GVM (BFGVM) is also further developed to create Direct Non-equidistant BFGVM (DNBFGVM) and, in turn, DNBFGVM with Recursive simulation (DNBFGVMR). Experimental analyses comprise 19 socio-economic time series with an emphasis on Iranian population, a low-frequency non-equidistant time series with remarkable strategic importance. Promisingly, the proposed DNBFGVM and DNBFGVMR provide accurate in-sample and out-of-sample socio-economic forecasts, show highly significant improvements over the best traditional GVM, and offer cost-effective intelligent support of decision-making. Final results suggest future trends of studied socio-economic time series. Specifically, they reveal Iranian population to grow even slower than anticipated, demanding an urgent consideration of policy-makers.

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