Does the high-frequency data is helpful for forecasting Russian inflation?

Due to the fact that at the end of 2014 the Central Bank made the transition to a new monetary policy regime for Russia — the inflation targeting regime, the problem of forecasting inflation rates became more relevant than ever. In the new monetary policy regime, it is important for the Bank of Russia to estimate the future inflation rate as quickly as possible in order to take measures to return inflation to the target level. In addition, for effective monetary policy, the households must trust the actions of monetary authorities and they must be aware of the future dynamics of inflation. Thus, to manage inflationary expectations of economic agents, the Central Bank should actively use the information channel, publish accurate forecasts of consumer price growth. The aim of this work is to build a model for nowcasting, as well as short-term forecasting of the rate of Russian inflation using high-frequency data. Using this type of data in models for forecasting is very promising, since this approach allows to use more information about the dynamics of macroeconomic indicators. The paper shows that using MIDAS model with weekly frequency series (RUB/USD exchange rate, the interbank rate MIACR, oil prices) has more accurate forecast of monthly inflation compared to several basic models, which only use low-frequency data.

Modern models of systems of central bank digital currency

The article examines modern models of digital currency systems of central banks (CBDC) for retail payments and wholesale settlements. The study gives economic interpretation and defines the key characteristics of central bank digital currencies, identifies the features of the main models of digital currencies systems and analyzes the most advanced national implementation projects of CBDC. The study concludes that the digital currencies of central banks are a new (digital) form of fiat money. The implementation of digital currencies of central banks is due to the need to improve the efficiency of the monetary and payment systems and is aimed at preserving of the central banks as a monetary issuer. The main advantages of digital currencies for retail payments are the offer of a highly liquid, low-risk and universally accessible means of payment. The key benefits of wholesale digital currencies are to provide faster, safer, and cheaper cross-border payments. Among the models of digital currencies systems for retail payments (R-CBDC) the model of hybrid system is characterized by the best reliability and speed when processing a large number of payment transactions. Therefore, these systems are the most promising for implementation. Between the models of systems for wholesale payments (W-CBDC) systems with a universal digital currency are the most suitable for eliminating the main problems of cross-border payments. However, the implementation of such systems may require a large number of technological, managerial and financial changes in the payment systems of central banks. Currently, the most advanced project for issuing R-CBDC is the DCEP system of the People’s Bank of China, which is implemented on the basis of a hybrid model. W-CBDC projects are implemented jointly by the central banks of the leading countries, as they require financial and technological unification of settlements. Most projects of W-CBDC involve the use of systems with a convertible or universal digital currency.

The evaluation of the effectiveness of high-dividend strategies in Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation economies

Investment strategies related to the use of high-dividend shares have been known for more than 30 years. Despite this, they remain relevant today. A large number of studies on this topic are devoted to studying the effectiveness of high-dividend strategies within one market, and cross-country studies evaluate a small number of markets. The aim of this paper is to evaluate the effectiveness of high-dividend strategies in the markets of all APEC economies, with the exception of Brunei and Papua New Guinea. The time horizon of the study is from 2002 to the present. We applied well-known modifications of the classic high-dividend strategy and modifications developed by the authors. We test hypotheses regarding the influence of various factors, such as the number of shares in a portfolio, the month of portfolio formation,classifying the economy as developed or developing, and the return on high-dividend portfolios. We also test the hypothesis that the significance of the high-dividend anomaly exists in various markets, but decreases over time. The results show different levels of effectiveness of high-dividend strategies and the different impact of the factors on the markets of developed and developing APEC economies. We found that high-dividend strategies are generally more effective in emerging markets, but in case of market growth, high-dividend strategies increase their abnormal returns only in developed markets. At the same time, the authors conclude that the number of shares in a high-dividend portfolio directly affects the result of its work. The results have theoretical and practical value, and can be applied in compiling a real investment portfolio.

Sustainable combinations of distinctive features of innovative firms’ business models

This article explores innovative firms’ business models during the development of the digital economy. The concept of business models has been in dynamic development for over a decade. Over the years, a significant number of publications have appeared, including results of theoretical and empirical studies. However, the distinctive features of business models of innovative firms have not been sufficiently studied. This article provides data on the attributes of business models of innovative firms and the development of their typology. For the research question, the assumption was taken that innovative business models have a moderately stable set of characteristic features, attributes that can be identified using factor and cluster analysis.In our framework, business models of 100 innovative companies were analyzed. The purpose of this study was to identify sustainable combinations of the characteristic features of business models and the development of typology of identified business models of innovative firms. The results of the study allowed us to develop a typology of business models of innovative firms based on the identification of the distinctive characteristics of business models, including technology, business solutions, and interactions with stakeholders. The results can be used in theoretical and empirical studies to further develop the typology of business models and to determine reasons for their success. The practical significance of the work is to identify sustainable combinations of attributes of business models that can be used for benchmarking, analysis of business models in the process of their transformation, and identifying key success factors in the development of the digital economy.

APEC: Assessing progress towards the Bogor goals

Over 30 years, the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation has evolved from an informal consultative dialogue into a leading inter-economy forum for promoting open trade and investment, business facilitation, as well as economic and technical cooperation. The number of APEC economies has increased, the agenda has expanded significantly to include, for example, environmental issues, digitalization, and social aspects of regulation. At the same time, in the institutional sphere, the forum has preserved the principle of consensus in decision-making, as well as the voluntary nature of commitments made by participants and the lack of mechanisms to enforce them. There is not much research on the overall results of APEC’s activities, especially on quantitative assessments of sectoral performance. The article provides an overview of international studies analyzing the forum’s achievement in different areas, including the “Bogor Goals” of trade and investment liberalization in the region. In addition, the authors conducted their own quantitative evaluation of APEC’s sectoral performance based on I. Yamazawa’s methodology and developed proposals for improving the methodology. The assessments have shown that APEC has been very successful in promoting the Bogor Goals, though the economies still have not achieved full liberalization of trade and investment in the region by 2020 deadline. Nevertheless, APEC continues its work to promote trade globalization, share regulatory experiences and best practices, harmonize standards, and improve connectivity in the region.

Crowdfunding as a tool for investing in sustainable development projects and its place in the green finance ecosystem

This article discusses and substantiates the potential of “green crowdfunding” as a component of the ecosystem of green finance, including the consideration of its investment features in financing projects aimed at sustainable development. The main hypothesis under discussion is that crowdfunding technologies have the potential to increase the financial and commercial success of environmentally-oriented projects. The achievement of this goal is mediated by methods of analysis of empirical research, bibliometric and content analysis of publications in the framework of a systematic approach. The logic of this work predetermines the following range of tasks: outlining and characterizing the conventional classification of crowdfunding, systematizing its modern forms; bibliometric and content analysis of the demand for the concept of green crowdfunding in foreign and domestic studies, as well as the selection of the conventional interpretation; systematization of the investment features of green crowdfunding projects; and highlighting the place of green crowdfunding in the ecosystem of green finance. Green crowdfunding, given the current limitations, remains largely adequate to the conditions of the ecosystem of green finance, as it supports the selection of green investments in the global environment of collective investment and interconnects the distributed sources of ideas in the field of sustainable development with funding sources. This is most relevant in the context of national economic crises and uneven market compression, where individuals from other regions and countries can easily be drawn to finance.

The cadastral value as a tool for monitoring the real estate market value

In the theory and practice of real estate valuation, in analytical studies of the dynamics of real estate markets there is a problem of tracking changes in market prices. The apparent simplicity of this task leads to the fact that in everyday practice both market participants and professional analysts are satisfied with observations of average prices. The advantage of this traditional approach is computational simplicity. However, in the conditions of presence of a large number of special software and extensive statistical material can be used more complex research methods. The purpose of this article is to research big current market data of real estate objects and compare these data with the cadastral value determined in accordance with Russian legislation as the market value at the specified date. In this regard, there are problems associated with the multidimensional distribution of market prices and cadastral values. The article presents the method of calculation of changes of the real estate market prices on the basis of comparison of two-dimensional prices distributions of offers and cadastral prices for two periods. The main problem in studying the dynamics of real estate market prices is the inability to track the change in market prices for each property, as objects are constantly put up for sale and removed from it. The work carried out in the Russian Federation in 2014 to establish the cadastral value of real estate opens opportunity to analyze two-dimensional distributions of current market and cadastral prices and to assess the dynamic characteristics of the market for any real estate objects. The main result of article is the method which allows to apprise the market value of real estate in real time when new market data come by their comparison with the previously established cadastral value. Cadastral value is assumed to be defined as market value at the valuation date.

Regulatory contract usage in case of antitrust mergers and acquisitions control

The article provides an analysis of counterparties’ benefits and costs within the framework of regulatory contracts the object of which is structural prescriptions issued by the antimonopoly authority controlling mergers and acquisitions. The purpose of the study is to identify discrete institutional alternatives for creating credible commitments in regulatory contracts with the participation of the monitoring trustee (taking into account the risk of distorted incentives).The object of the study is the regulatory contract between the regulator, the trustee, and the company (merger participant) in the case of divestiture, since this situation is the most sensitive in terms of setting incentives and risks of opportunism. The subject of the study is credible commitments in such regulatory contracts. The analysis is based on methods of new institutional economics and of law and economics, and it employs mathematical modeling. The comparative analysis of discrete institutional alternatives is used as the main methodological approach, and it is based on an analysis of action coordination forms and harmonization of economic agents’ expectations — in this case, the antimonopoly agency, a trustee, and companies involved in mergers and acquisitions transactions. Advantages and disadvantages of the following contracting options were identified: independent monitoring by the regulator;monitoring with the involvement of a trustee whose activities are financed by the competition authority or the company; a hybrid approach financing trustee activities; distribution of income from penalties as a way for financing trustee activities; and a system of pledges in a tripartite contract. The article also defines the conditions for credible commitments within the framework of regulatory contracts. The results of this research can be used as a guideline for institutional design in the Russian antitrust enforcement system.

The role of extractive industries in developing peripheral Arctic regions of Russia and Canada

Russian Federation and Canada are the largest arctic powers that have similar features in evolving their Arctic zones. In the mid-1920s both countries formalized their rights to the northern territories. Russian and Canadian arctic regions are located in harsh climatic zones,geographically distant from national political and business centers, poorly populated, and rich in natural resources. At the same time, there are obvious differences in political institutions,“core-periphery” relationships, business organization, and social activities of aboriginal people and newcomers. The purpose of this study is a comparative evaluation how the rich resource base and industrial production impact on the socio-economic development of the Arctic regions of Russia and Canada. To reach the goal authors use the official statistical sources of the Russian Federation and Canada. Case study method, comparative analysis, and econometric calculations are applied. As a result similar and distinctive features of the industrial development of the Arctic regions of these countries were identified. It can be explained, first of all, by the institutional characteristics of Russia and Canada. Comparing an evidence of the leading extractive companies completed the empirical analysis. Authors concluded that the regions under consideration are characterized by a high or medium share of the extractive industry in the regional economy. Specialization in natural resources extraction and primary processing does not have a negative impact on the economic development of the territories. However, outer companies are engaged in this business that increases the dependence of the regional economy on the conjuncture of world markets. The article investigates in empirical studying common features of the extractive industry in the peripheral Russian and Canadian Arctic territories and its impact on the socio-economic development of these regions.

Biological hazard risk studies: a comparative analysis of approaches and the role of insurance

The pandemic of the new coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has a huge impact on the global economy, significantly affecting the functioning of all its sectors. In this regard, the search for ways to minimize the negative consequences of such risks is of particular relevance. The article presents the results of a systematic analysis of scientific publications by leading foreign and Russian authors on various aspects of the risks arising from viral threats, as well as ways to reduce the negative consequences of such risks. In particular, studies that evaluate the impact on the economy of various factors that occur during and after epidemics are examined. The analysis of publications showed that researchers distinguish the following factors: 1) the social system of the state; 2) government expenses on the fight against the epidemic; 3) the role of international organizations in combating epidemics in individual countries. Further, various approaches to the construction of models describing the spread of biological threats reflected in publications of representatives of various scientific fields, in particular medical and economicmathematical, including actuarial, modeling are analyzed. Three approaches to modeling the development of infectious diseases are considered, which differ both in the apparatus used and in the predominant field of application of the corresponding models. Particular attention is paid to the contribution that insurance research can make to the development of new theoretical approaches to mitigate the negative economic consequences of COVID-19. The authors distinguish three areas: 1) the use of actuarial models for the analysis and assessment of the risks of biological threats; 2) the use of relevant insurance products in the insurance market as an epidemic risk management tool that provides financial protection; 3) the use of innovative technologies in rendering insurance services (InsurTech).