scholarly journals The Debt Overhang Hypothesis: Evidence from Pakistan

2016 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 140-151 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Imran Shah ◽  
Irfan Ullah ◽  
Zia Ur Rahman ◽  
Nadeem Jan
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Dynamic Behaviour ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Labour Force ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Unit Roots ◽  
Debt Overhang ◽  
Debt Burden ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Domestic Labour

AbstractThis study investigates the debt overhang hypothesis for Pakistan in the period 1960-2007. The study examines empirically the dynamic behaviour of GDP, debt services, the employed labour force and investment using the time series concepts of unit roots, cointegration, error correlation and causality. Our findings suggest that debt-servicing has a negative impact on the productivity of both labour and capital, and that in turn has adversely affected economic growth. By severely constraining the ability of the country to service debt, this lends support to the debt-overhang hypothesis in Pakistan. The long run relation between debt services and economic growth implies that future increases in output will drain away in form of high debt service payments to lender country as external debt acts like a tax on output. More specifically, foreign creditors will benefit more from the rise in productivity than will domestic producers and labour. This suggests that domestic labour and capital are the ultimate losers from this heavy debt burden.

scholarly journals The asymmetric and threshold impact of external debt on economic growth: new evidence from Egypt

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mesbah Fathy Sharaf
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Threshold Level ◽  
Substantial Contribution ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Nardl Model

PurposeWithin a multivariate framework, this study examines the asymmetric and threshold impact of external debt on economic growth in Egypt during the period 1980–2019.Design/methodology/approachThe paper uses a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration and a vector error-correction model to estimate the short- and long-run parameters of equilibrium dynamics. A multiple structural breaks model is estimated to test nonlinearity in the relationship between external debt and economic growth.FindingsResults of the NARDL model show a robust statistically significant negative long-run impact on economic growth stemming from both positive and negative external-debt-induced shocks. In terms of magnitude, on the one hand, the impact of external-debt-induced negative shocks exceeds that of the positive. In the short and long run, on the other hand, the growth impact of external debt in Egypt is symmetric. There is also support for the nonlinearity hypothesis in which a negative impact on growth of external debt obtains once the threshold level of external debt-to-GDP ratio equals or exceeds 96.7%.Practical implicationsIdentifying the threshold level after which external debt becomes harmful to economic growth would help inform policymakers in Egypt about maximum external debt levels that can be sustained without impairing economic growth.Originality/valueThe current study makes a substantial contribution to the extant literature on the debt-growth tradeoffs. It breaks ground by being the first tract that examines, using a NARDL model, asymmetry and nonlinearity of debt-growth tradeoffs in Egypt.

scholarly journals External Debt Burdens and Economic Growth: A Vector Error Correction Approach from Nigeria

2021 ◽  
Vol 04 (08) ◽  
Author(s):  
ZAAGHA, Alexander Sulaiman ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Debt Sustainability ◽  
Debt Overhang ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Debt Burden ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Crowd Out ◽  
Domestic Products

This study examined the effect of external debt burden on the growth of Nigeria economy. Time series data was sourced from Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin from 1986-2019. Nigeria real gross domestic was proxied for dependent variable while debt servicing; external debt stock, debt overhang, debt sustainability and crowd-out effect of external debt were proxies for independent variables. The study employed multiple regression models to estimate the relationship that exists between external debt burden indicators and Nigeria economic growth. Ordinary Least Square (OLS), Augmented Dickey Fuller Test, Johansen Co-integration test, normalized co-integrating equations, parsimonious vector error correction model and pairwise causality tests were used to conduct the investigations and analysis. The study findings revealed that 72 percent of the variations in Nigeria gross domestic products can be explained by the changes in external debt burden indicators. The results indicated a negative coefficient with external debt stock and debt overhang while a positive coefficient with debt sustainability, debt servicing and crowd out effect of external debt on Nigeria gross domestic products. From the findings, the study concludes that external debt burdens significantly affect growth of Nigeria economy. We recommend that the fund borrowed should be effectively managed, the federal government should laydown guidelines in terms of defining the purpose, duration, moratorium requirements and commitments, negotiation among others including conditions for external debt loans. Government should initiate and develop policies that will address the fundamental causes of external debt.

scholarly journals Is External Debt a Boon or a Curse? Empirical Evidence from South Asian Countries

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 223-232
Author(s):  
MUHAMMAD REEHAN HAMEED ◽  
MAJID ALI ◽  
HAFSAH BATOOL
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
South Asian ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Fixed Effect Model ◽  
Fixed Effect ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Effect Model ◽  
Short Run

Over the years, the South Asian countries were facing the dilemma of twin’s deficits because they had failed to generate sufficient revenues to finance their budget. Consequently, they were continuously relying on both domestic and external debt to bridge these deficits which had put a severe implication on their economic growth. Their financial position continued to deteriorate and undermined all the efforts of the governments made to stimulate economic growth. The governments in these countries failed to generate enough revenues through internal sources. Therefore, the deficits were normally fiancé through external sources. The paper examined whether the external debt was a blessing or course to the economic growth of South Asian countries i.e. Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. For this purpose 30 years of panel data of these countries from 1990 to 2019 had been taken. Fixed effect model and Panel Autoregressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) Approach had been applied to examine the short-run and long-run association among the variables. The natural log of GDP per capita was used as a proxy for economic growth. The other variables were external debt, initial GDP, foreign direct investment, trade openness, investment, and secondary school investment rate. The outcomes of the study indicated that that external debt had a negative impact on economic growth both in the short-run and long-run. This revealed that external debt had not been utilized effectively and productively. The study suggested that effort would be made to manage the external debt and reduced the twin's deficits to minimize the harmful impact of external debt on the economy. Keywords: South Asian, External Debt, ARDL, Fixed Effect Model, Economic Growth.

External Debt and Economic Growth Nexus: Empirical Evidence From Nigeria

2020 ◽  
Vol 65 (2) ◽  
pp. 330-343
Author(s):  
Sylvester Ohiomu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Debt Management ◽  
Management Policy ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Debt Overhang ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run

This study models external debt and economic growth nexus for policy analysis on public finance and public debt management. The work uses the methodology of group unit root test, auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing, and co-integrating long-run tests for robust policy recommendations. The results showed that the debt overhang variable (D_Y) and crowding-out effect variable (DS_X) depress the level of investment. This adversely affects economic growth in Nigeria. The study recommends that Nigeria should embark on strict debt management policy, pursue effective debt reduction strategies, and improve investment drives for economic expansion and sustainable development. JEL Classification: C22, C51, E27, H63, H81

Dynamics between trade openness, FDI and economic growth: evidence from an emerging economy

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Bijoy Rakshit
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Labour Force ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Empirical Literature ◽  
Data Series ◽  
Causality Analysis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run

Purpose This paper aims to examine the dynamics between trade openness, foreign direct investment (FDI) and economic growth in India over the period 1979 to 2017. This study further considers the role of pre and post-economic reforms in the analysis of these dynamics. Design/methodology/approach The authors apply the autoregressive distributed lag model to investigate the possible long-run associations among the variables. Zivot-Andrew unit root test was applied to detect the structural breaks present in the data series. Toda-Yamamoto causality approach has been applied to examine the direction of causality among the variables. Findings Findings show that trade openness exerts a negative impact on economic growth in the long-run. Although FDI inflow promotes economic growth in the long-run, FDI inflow does not seem to affect growth in the short-run. As far as causality analysis is concerned, findings confirm a unidirectional causality is flowing from FDI inflow and labour force to per capita gross domestic product growth in India. Practical implications The negative impact of trade openness on growth suggests that policymakers should implement more export-oriented policies to boost economic growth in the long-run. The ratio of exports to the total volume of trade has not increased satisfactorily over the years. Additionally, appropriate policies should aim at extracting the benefits of FDI inflow in the long-run. Originality/value Although several theoretical and empirical literature has investigated the nexus between FDI (or trade) and growth, this study, as a fresh attempt, investigates the long-run dynamics between trade openness, FDI, capital formation, labour force and economic growth in India.

scholarly journals Impact of National Debt Burden on Economic Stability in Nigeria

2021 ◽  
Vol 35 (1) ◽  
pp. 91-106
Author(s):  
Kingsley Onyekachi Onyele ◽  
Emmanuel Chijioke Nwadike
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Government Revenue ◽  
National Debt ◽  
Economic Stability ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Debt Overhang ◽  
Debt Burden ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The study argues that national debt becomes a burden when debt overhang is rising, a foreign reserve is inadequate to cover short-term external debt and government revenue is inadequate for debt servicing. This paper investigates the impact of national debt burden on economic stability in Nigeria. Data spanning from 1981 to 2019 have been collated from the World Development Indicators and Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin, 2019 edition. Consequently, the variables used to measure debt burden are total debt-to-GDP ratio (debt overhang), short-term external debt-to-reserves ratio (reserve adequacy) and debt service cost-to-government revenue ratio (revenue adequacy) with exchange rate as a control variable, while economic stability is measured with real GDP growth rate. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model is used for the analysis since the variables are stationary at both levels and first difference. The ARDL estimation shows that the explanatory variables collectively cause a diminishing impact on economic stability in the long run with revenue adequacy having a negative and significant impact. In the short run, all the components of debt burden, except debt overhang, have a negative and significant impact on economic stability. Under this circumstance, exchange rate has a positive and significant impact on economic stability in the long run.

Relationship between Budget Deficit and Economic Growth: Evidence from Ethiopia

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 10-15
Author(s):  
Desalegn Emana
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Nominal Exchange Rate ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run

This study examined the relationship between budget deficit and economic growth in Ethiopia using time series data for the period 1991 to 2019 by applying the ARDL bounds testing approach. The empirical results indicate that budget deficit and economic growth in Ethiopia have a negative relationship in the long run, and have a weak positive association in the short run. In line with this, in the long run, a one percent increase in the budget deficit causes a 1.43 percent decline in the economic growth of the country. This result is consistent with the neoclassical view which says budget deficits are bad for economic growth during stimulating periods. Moreover, in the long run, the variables trade openness and inflation have a positive impact on Ethiopian economic growth, and on the other hand, the economic growth of Ethiopia is negatively affected by the nominal exchange rate in the long run. Apart from this, in the long run, gross capital formation and lending interest rates have no significant impact on the economic growth of the country. Therefore, the study recommends the government should manage its expenditure and mobilize the resources to generate more revenue to address the negative impact of the budget deficit on economic growth.

scholarly journals The Impact of Public Debt on the Economic Growth of Jordan: An Empirical Study (2000- 2015)

2017 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 114 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tawfiq Ahmad Mousa ◽  
Abudallah. M. LShawareh
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Empirical Study ◽  
Regression Model ◽  
Least Squares ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Least Squares Method ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Impact

In the last two decades, Jordan’s economy has been relied on public debt in order to enhance the economic growth. As such, an understanding  of the dynamics between public debt and economic growth is very important in addressing the obstacles to economic growth. The study investigates the impact of public debt on economic growth using data from 2000 to 2015. The study employs least squares method and regression model to capture the impact of public debt on economic growth. The results of the analysis indicate that there is a negative impact of total public debt, especially the external debt on economic growth. 

scholarly journals The Effects of Human Capital by Gender on Economic Growth

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 113
Author(s):  
Mohd Shahidan Shaari ◽  
Razinda Tasnim Abdul Rahim ◽  
Nor Hidayah Harun ◽  
Faiz Masnan
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Human Capital ◽  
Labour Force ◽  
Labour Force Participation ◽  
Participation Rates ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Job Opportunities ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
Male Labour

The issue of human capital by gender has been sparsely discussed in previous literature especially male labour force. The contribution of both genders to economic growth has intensified every year. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the effects of human capital by gender on economic growth in Malaysia. Data ranging from 1982 to 2018 were analysed by using the ARDL approach. The results show that higher male labour force participation rates can boost economic growth in the short run and long run in Malaysia. Higher female labour force participation rates, on the other hand, can reduce economic growth in the short run and long run in Malaysia. Therefore, the government should encourage more male labour to participate in the labour market by giving incentives. More job opportunities should be created for both genders.

scholarly journals Foreign Direct Investment, External Debt, and Balance of Payment: A Causality Analysis for Bangladesh

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Mahmud Mostafa
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Causality Analysis ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Significant Negative Impact ◽  
Short Run

The purpose of this study is to analyze the causal relationship of external debt and balance of payment with foreign direct investment (FDI) in Bangladesh for the period of 1980 to 2017 through the application of Johansen Cointegration technique, Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), and Granger Causality approach. Results of cointegration and VECM indicate a significant long-run relationship between dependent (FDI) and independent variables (external debt and balance of payment). External debt is found to have a significant negative impact on FDI in the long-run, but it is found insignificant in the short-run. In contrast, the balance of payment has a significant positive effect on FDI both in the long-run and short-run. Results of the Granger causality test reveal that there exists bidirectional short-run causality between the balance of payment and FDI; that is, both the balance of payment and FDI affect each other. But no unidirectional or bidirectional short-run causality is found between external debt and FDI. Keywords: FDI, external debt, balance of payment, cointegration, VECM, causality

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