Did Shy Trump Supporters Bias the 2016 Polls? Evidence from a Nationally-representative List Experiment

2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexander Coppock
Keyword(s):  
Social Desirability ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Social Desirability Bias ◽  
Representative Survey ◽  
Direct Question ◽  
Vote Preference ◽  
List Experiment ◽  
Nationally Representative

AbstractExplanations for the failure to predict Donald Trump’s win in the 2016 Presidential election sometimes include the “Shy Trump Supporter” hypothesis, according to which some Trump supporters succumb to social desirability bias and hide their vote preference from pollsters. I evaluate this hypothesis by comparing direct question and list experimental estimates of Trump support in a nationally representative survey of 5290 American adults fielded from September 2 to September 13, 2016. Of these, 32.5% report supporting Trump’s candidacy. A list experiment conducted on the same respondents yields an estimate 29.6%, suggesting that Trump’s poll numbers were not artificially deflated by social desirability bias as the list experiment estimate is actually lower than direct question estimate. I further investigate differences across measurement modes for relevant demographic and political subgroups and find no evidence in support of the “Shy Trump Supporter” hypothesis.

scholarly journals Do Survey Estimates of the Public’s Compliance with COVID-19 Regulations Suffer from Social Desirability Bias?

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin Larsen ◽  
Jacob Nyrup ◽  
Michael Bang Petersen
Keyword(s):  
Social Desirability ◽  
Self Report ◽  
Social Desirability Bias ◽  
Health Crisis ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Public Health Crisis ◽  
Compliant Behavior ◽  
List Experiment ◽  
Nationally Representative ◽  
Survey Estimates

The COVID-19 pandemic has led governments to instate a large number of restrictions on and recommendations for citizens’ behavior. One widely used tool for measuring compliance with these strictures are nationally representative surveys that ask citizens to self-report their behavior. But if respondents avoid disclosing socially undesirable behaviors, such as not complying with government strictures in a public health crisis, estimates of compliance will be biased upwards. To assess the magnitude of this problem, this study compares measures of compliance from direct questions to those estimated from list-experiments - a response technique that allows respondents to report illicit behaviors without individual-level detection. Implementing the list-experiment in two separate surveys of Danish citizens (n>5,000), we find no evidence that citizens under-report non-compliant behavior. We therefore conclude that survey estimates of compliance with COVID-19 regulations do not suffer from social desirability bias.

A Tale of Two Countries: The Effectiveness of List Experiments to Measure Drug Consumption in Opposite Contexts

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Miguel García-Sánchez ◽  
Rosario Queirolo
Keyword(s):  
Drug Use ◽  
Social Desirability ◽  
Marijuana Use ◽  
Social Contexts ◽  
Social Desirability Bias ◽  
Indirect Measures ◽  
List Experiment ◽  
Nationally Representative ◽  
Sensitive Issues ◽  
Representative Samples

Abstract The utility of list experiments in overcoming social desirability bias in surveys may be conditioned on social contexts. Sensitive issues in some countries may be less delicate in others, as with the case of drug use. We test this argument using a list experiment to measure marijuana use in two countries that differ in terms of social progressiveness: Colombia and Uruguay. Using nationally representative samples, we find no differences between the direct and indirect measures of marijuana use in liberal Uruguay, whereas in Colombia, the list experiment failed to produce an estimate of marijuana use. Therefore, social contexts affect the capacity of list experiments to elicit valid estimates.

scholarly journals Do Survey Estimates of the Public’s Compliance with COVID-19 Regulations Suffer from Social Desirability Bias?

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin Vinæs Larsen ◽  
Michael Bang Petersen ◽  
Jacob Nyrup
Keyword(s):  
Social Desirability ◽  
Self Report ◽  
Social Desirability Bias ◽  
Health Crisis ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Public Health Crisis ◽  
Compliant Behavior ◽  
List Experiment ◽  
Nationally Representative ◽  
Survey Estimates

The COVID-19 pandemic has led governments to instate a large number of restrictions on and recommendations for citizens’ behavior. One of our best tools for measuring compliance with these strictures are nationally representative surveys that ask citizens to self-report their behavior. But if respondents’ avoid disclosing socially undesirable behaviors, such as not complying with government strictures in a public health crisis, estimates of compliance will be biased upwards. To assess the magnitude of this problem, this study compares measures of compliance from direct questions to those estimated from list-experiments - a response technique that allows respondents to report illicit behaviors without individual-level detection. Implementing the list-experiment in two separate surveys of Danish citizens (n>5,000), we find no evidence that citizens under-report non-compliant behavior. We therefore conclude that survey estimates of compliance with COVID-19 regulations do not suffer from social desirability bias

scholarly journals No magic bullet: estimating anti-immigrant sentiment and social desirability bias with the item-count technique

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Rinken ◽  
S. Pasadas-del-Amo ◽  
M. Rueda ◽  
B. Cobo
Keyword(s):  
Social Desirability ◽  
Magic Bullet ◽  
Social Desirability Bias ◽  
Direct Question ◽  
Predictor Models ◽  
List Experiment ◽  
Mixed Modes ◽  
Attitudes Toward Immigration ◽  
Item Count Technique ◽  
Spanish Region

AbstractExtant scholarship on attitudes toward immigration and immigrants relies mostly on direct survey items. Thus, little is known about the scope of social desirability bias, and even less about its covariates. In this paper, we use probability-based mixed-modes panel data collected in the Southern Spanish region of Andalusia to estimate anti-immigrant sentiment with both the item-count technique, also known as list experiment, and a direct question. Based on these measures, we gauge the size of social desirability bias, compute predictor models for both estimators of anti-immigrant sentiment, and pinpoint covariates of bias. For most respondent profiles, the item-count technique produces higher estimates of anti-immigrant sentiment than the direct question, suggesting that self-presentational concerns are far more ubiquitous than previously assumed. However, we also find evidence that among people keen to position themselves as all-out xenophiles, social desirability pressures persist in the list-experiment: the full scope of anti-immigrant sentiment remains elusive even in non-obtrusive measurement.

Tax compliance and social desirability bias of taxpayers: experimental evidence from Indonesia

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-18
Author(s):  
Endra Iraman ◽  
Yoshikuni Ono ◽  
Makoto Kakinaka
Keyword(s):  
Experimental Evidence ◽  
Social Desirability ◽  
Tax Evasion ◽  
Tax Compliance ◽  
Computer Assisted ◽  
Social Desirability Bias ◽  
Lower Income ◽  
Tax Returns ◽  
List Experiment ◽  
Experiment Technique

Abstract Identifying taxpayers who engage in noncompliant behaviour is crucial for tax authorities to determine appropriate taxation schemes. However, because taxpayers have an incentive to conceal their true income, it is difficult for tax authorities to uncover such behaviour (social desirability bias). Our study mitigates the bias in responses to sensitive questions by employing the list experiment technique, which allows us to identify the characteristics of taxpayers who engage in tax evasion. Using a dataset obtained from a tax office in Jakarta, Indonesia, we conducted a computer-assisted telephone interviewing survey in 2019. Our results revealed that 13% of the taxpayers, old, male, corporate employees, and members of a certain ethnic group had reported lower income than their true income on their tax returns. These findings suggest that our research design can be a useful tool for understanding tax evasion and for developing effective taxation schemes that promote tax compliance.

Authoritarian Rallying as Reputational Cascade? Evidence from Putin’s Popularity Surge after Crimea

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-15
Author(s):  
HENRY E. HALE
Keyword(s):  
Social Media ◽  
Social Desirability ◽  
International Conflict ◽  
Econometric Analysis ◽  
Panel Survey ◽  
Preference Change ◽  
List Experiment ◽  
Nationally Representative ◽  
Identification Strategy

When international conflict causes an authoritarian leader’s popularity to soar, extant theories lead us to treat such “rallying” as sincere preference change, the product of surging patriotism or cowed media. This study advances a theory of less-than-fully sincere rallying more appropriate for nondemocratic settings, characterizing it as at least partly reflecting cascading dissembling driven by social desirability concerns. The identification strategy combines a rare nationally representative rally-spanning panel survey with a list experiment and econometric analysis. This establishes that three quarters of those who rallied to Putin after Russia annexed Crimea were engaging in at least some form of dissembling and that this rallying developed as a rapid cascade, with social media joining television in fueling perceptions this was socially desirable.

scholarly journals Social Desirability Bias in the 2016 Presidential Election

The Forum ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Samara Klar ◽  
Christopher R. Weber ◽  
Yanna Krupnikov
Keyword(s):  
Social Context ◽  
Social Norms ◽  
Social Desirability ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Social Desirability Bias ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Self Monitoring ◽  
Psychological Trait

AbstractPartisanship is a stable trait but expressions of partisan preferences can vary according to social context. When particular preferences become socially undesirable, some individuals refrain from expressing them in public, even in relatively anonymous settings such as surveys and polls. In this study, we rely on the psychological trait of self-monitoring to show that Americans who are more likely to adjust their behaviors to comply with social norms (i.e. high self-monitors) were less likely to express support for Donald Trump during the 2016 Presidential Election. In turn, as self-monitoring decreases, we find that the tendency to express support for Trump increases. This study suggests that – at least for some individuals – there may have been a tendency in 2016 to repress expressed support for Donald Trump in order to mask socially undesirable attitudes.

scholarly journals Exploring Social Desirability Bias in Perceptions of Dog Adoption: All’s Well that Ends Well? Or Does the Method of Adoption Matter?

Animals ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (9) ◽  
pp. 154 ◽  
Author(s):  
Courtney Bir ◽  
Nicole Olynk Widmar ◽  
Candace Croney
Keyword(s):  
Social Desirability ◽  
Choice Experiment ◽  
Latent Class ◽  
Latent Class Model ◽  
The United States ◽  
Social Desirability Bias ◽  
Random Parameters ◽  
Class Model ◽  
Random Parameters Logit ◽  
Nationally Representative

Dogs are a popular companion animal in the United States; however, dog acquisition is often a contentious subject. Adoption is often cited as an ethical and popular method of acquisition but interpretation of the term ‘adoption’ may vary. In a nationally representative survey of the U.S., 767 respondents were asked questions regarding their opinions of dog acquisition and adoption. Within the sample, 45% had a dog; of those, 40% had adopted a dog, and 47% visited a veterinarian once a year. A best-worst choice experiment, where respondents were asked to choose the most ethical and least ethical method of acquiring a dog from a statistically determined set of choices, was used to elicit respondents’ preferences for the most ethical method of dog adoption. A random parameters logit and a latent class model were used to estimate relative rankings of dog adoption methods. In the random parameters logit model, the largest preference share was for adoption from a municipal animal shelter (56%) and the smallest preference share was for adoption from a pet store (3%). Dog acquisition was further evaluated by creating an index of social desirability bias using how important respondents believed certain dog characteristics were compared to how important respondents believed others would rate/rank the same dog characteristics. The highest incidences of social desirability bias occurred for the dog characteristics of appearance and breed.

Political isolation in America

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 333-355 ◽  
Author(s):  
Byungkyu Lee ◽  
Peter Bearman
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Survey Experiment ◽  
Representative Survey ◽  
National Data ◽  
Historical Trends ◽  
Core Networks ◽  
Nationally Representative ◽  
Political Health

AbstractThis study documents historical trends of size and political diversity in Americans’ discussion networks, which are often seen as important barometers of social and political health. Contrasting findings from data drawn out of a nationally representative survey experiment of 1,055 Americans during the contentious 2016 U.S. presidential election to data arising from 11 national data sets covering nearly three decades, we find that Americans’ core networks are significantly smaller and more politically homogeneous than at any other period. Several methodological artifacts seem unlikely to account for the effect. We show that in this period, more than before, “important matters” were often framed as political matters, and that this association probably accounts for the smaller networks.

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