Pavement deflection measurements, together with backcalculation procedures, are widely used to estimate the layer moduli of pavement-subgrade systems. Sensitivity analysis of a sample problem indicates that conclusions drawn from static analyses with regards to deflection sensitivity to variation in layer moduli may apply when characterizing uncertainty associated with the interpretation of the falling weight deflectometer (FWD) data. The uncertainty associated with the values of the backcalculated parameters from deflection data is investigated in this paper using an elastodynamic, stochastic finite element approach. The results of the simulations indicate that, in order to properly estimate surface layer moduli, loading frequencies higher than that of excitation by typical FWD loading are required. The low sensitivity of deflection uncertainty to random variations in surface modulus, when compared with that associated with subgrade modulus, is demonstrated to contribute to high variations in backcalculated surface modulus from measured surface deflections. Although focus is placed on uncertainties in elastic modulus and deflection, the methodology presented in the paper can be used to quantify uncertainties associated with other layer properties and pavement responses.Key words: stochastic, finite element, pavement deflection, elastodynamic, backcalculation, layer moduli, falling weight deflectometer test.
