scholarly journals Asymmetrical Exchange Rates Effect on Indonesia's Trade Balance in Tourism

JEJAK ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 102-122
Author(s):  
Akbar Maulana ◽  
Taufiq Carnegie Dawood ◽  
Teuku Zulham
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Real Rate ◽  
The Real ◽  
Empirical Results ◽  
Nonlinear Ardl ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
China And Japan ◽  
The Government

The main objective of this research is to analyze the effect of depreciation and real exchange rate appreciation on Indonesia's tourism trade balance bilaterally against Australia, China, Japan, Malaysia, and Singapore. Such analysis on bilateral relations have never been studied for developing markets countries, namely Indonesia. This study uses a linear ARDL approach and a nonlinear ARDL approach with the dependent variable on the tourism trade balance and the real exchange rate as independent variables. Income, foreign direct investment (FDI), and natural disasters as control variables. The empirical results show that Chinese and Japanese tourists respond positively to the depreciation in the real currency rate of exchange, thereby increasing Indonesia's tourism trade balance. Nonlinear ARDL shows that the relation concerning the real rate of exchange plus the balance of trade is non-symmetrical with respect to China and Japan, while Australia, Malaysia, and Singapore are symmetrical. These results suggest that the government should formulate policies to increase tourist visits from China and Japan. Further empirical results also found a J-curve pattern in Indonesia-China and Indonesia-Japan.

Questioning the effect of the real exchange rate on growth: new evidence from Mexico

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 253-269
Author(s):  
Florencia Médici ◽  
Augustín Mario ◽  
Alejandro Fiorito
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Public Expenditure ◽  
Institutional Arrangements ◽  
Relative Price ◽  
The Real ◽  
Empirical Results ◽  
New Evidence

This study provides new evidence showing that the real exchange rate (RER) does not play an important role in the growth of Mexican GDP. Economic growth is not an automatically predetermined result of relative price correction, and it is important to consider distinctive aspects of national institutional arrangements (fiscal and monetary, for example) for understanding theoretical causality of demand. The empirical results show public expenditure is an overlooked variable in regressions where the exchange rate affects product growth. After incorporating public expenditure, the RER impact on growth becomes insignificant. For its part, public expenditure has a positive and significant effect on GDP in the long term. The RER does not lead to greater GDP since exports are not stimulated through price.

scholarly journals Is Real Depreciation or More Government Deficit Expansionary? The Case of Slovenia

2017 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 50-56 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yu Hsing
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Central Government ◽  
Empirical Work ◽  
Labor Cost ◽  
Aggregate Output ◽  
The Real ◽  
Government Deficit ◽  
The Government

AbstractThe purpose of this paper is to examine the impacts of the real exchange rate, the government deficit and other relevant variables on aggregate output in Slovenia. Few of the previous studies have applied the AD/AS model to examine the impacts of major macroeconomic variables on aggregate output. This paper makes contributions to the literature by applying a rigorous model to examine how real GDP is affected by the real exchange rate, fiscal policy and other related variables. The exponential GARCH model is applied in empirical work. The paper finds that real depreciation of the Euro may affect Slovenia’s aggregate output positively or negatively and that more central government deficit as a percent of GDP does not affect aggregate output. In addition, Slovenia’s aggregate output is positively associated with the real stock price, the real oil price and real total labor cost or wage and is negatively influenced by the real lending rate and the expected inflation rate. Recent real depreciation of the Euro would help Slovenia’s aggregate output whereas expansionary fiscal policy would not be effective in stimulating the economy.

scholarly journals External wealth, the trade balance, and the real exchange rate

2002 ◽  
Vol 46 (6) ◽  
pp. 1049-1071 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philip R. Lane ◽  
Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
The Real

scholarly journals DAMPAK PENERAPAN INDONESIA - JAPAN ECONOMIC PARTNERSHIP AGREEMENT (IJEPA) TERHADAP NILAI EKSPOR IMPOR INDONESIA

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 19
Author(s):  
Jesica Sitepu
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Random Effect ◽  
Random Effect Model ◽  
Estimation Model ◽  
The Real ◽  
Before And After ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

This study aims to analyze the impact of the IJEPA agreement on bilateral trade (export - import) of Indonesia with Japan using 20 main commodities of trade according to the 2 digit HS code in the period 2001-2018 with the Random Effect Model (REM) estimation model. This study also analyzes whether GDP, population, and the real exchange rate of Indonesia - Japan has an influence on the development of Indonesia's export and import values.          The analysis showed that both before and after the enactment of IJEPA cooperation did not have a significant effect on the value of exports from Indonesia - Japan. The variable GDP, population, and the real exchange rate have a significant effect on exports and imports. Therefore, the government of Indonesia and Japan can review the IJEPA agreement in order to increase the benefits of IJEPA.

Fiscal shocks, the real exchange rate and the trade balance: some evidence for emerging economies

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Marcelo Eduardo Alves da Silva ◽  
Diogo Baerlocher ◽  
Henrique Veras de Paiva Fonseca
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
The Real ◽  
Vector Auto Regression ◽  
Auto Regression ◽  
Structural Vector ◽  
Fiscal Shocks

AbstractThis paper implements a structural vector auto regression (SVAR) analysis to investigate the impacts and importance of fiscal shocks on the dynamics of the real exchange rate and the trade balance in three emerging economies: Brazil, Chile and Mexico. We show that the effects of an unexpected increase in government spending are not uniform across countries with higher spending leading to a depreciation of the real exchange rate in Brazil and Chile, whereas in Mexico, we observe an appreciation. The trade balance deteriorates in all three countries. We also report that an unexpected increase in taxes leads to recessionary impacts and improves the trade balance. Only in Mexico is there evidence of a real exchange rate depreciation. Finally, we show that fiscal shocks account for roughly 20% of real exchange fluctuations.

Nonlinear ARDL approach, asymmetric effects and the J-curve

2015 ◽  
Vol 42 (3) ◽  
pp. 519-530 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee ◽  
Hadise Fariditavana
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Trade Flows ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Asymmetric Effects ◽  
Currency Depreciation ◽  
Nonlinear Ardl ◽  
J Curve ◽  
Ardl Approach

Purpose – Previous research that investigated the effects of currency depreciation on the trade balance assumed that the adjustment of all variables in a given model is in linear fashion. The authors wonder if introduction of nonlinearity in the adjustment of some variables such as the exchange rate can shed additional light on evidence of the J-curve. The new approach also allows to test whether exchange rate changes have symmetric or asymmetric effects on the trade balance. Estimates of a trade balance model for Canada, China, Japan, and the USA reveal that the effects are indeed asymmetric. The paper aims to discuss these issues. Design/methodology/approach – The methodology is based on linear and nonlinear ARDL approach. Findings – When nonlinearity is introduced into testing approach for the J-curve, more evidence is found in support of the J-curve. Research limitations/implications – The models are estimated using aggregate trade flows of each country with the rest of the world, hence they suffer from aggregation bias. Using trade flows at bilateral level and at commodity level are highly recommended for future research. Originality/value – This is the first paper that applies nonlinear ARDL approach to test the short-run and long-run effects of currency depreciation on the trade balance.

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