scholarly journals MACROECONOMETRIC STABILIZATION AND IMF POLICIES: A SURVEILLANCE OF INFLATION

2015 ◽  
Vol 23 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher E.S. WARBURTON
Keyword(s):  
Money Supply ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Price Level ◽  
Empirical Work ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Us ◽  
Stabilization Policies ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Very High

This paper uses time series data from 1960 to 2012 to evaluate the long-run relationshipbetween aggregate money supply and changes in the general price level (inflation) for aselected group of countries with historically stable prices and episodes of very high inflation.Recent paradigmatic shifts from exchange-rate-based stabilization policies toconditionalities involving price stability have greatly influenced the empirical work of thispaper. Empirical results indicate that the money supply and inflation are cointegrated insome countries with high spells of inflation, such as Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico, but thatthe variables may not be cointegrated with each other for countries with prices that aregenerally and historically stable, such as the UK and the US. The paper highlights the need forgood quality governance, employment, and productivity in surveillance measures that aredesigned to obtain external balance.

scholarly journals Macro Economic Challenges and Third Party Funds of Islamic Commercial Banks in Indonesia

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Anik Anik ◽  
Iin Emy Prastiwi
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Data Gathering ◽  
Third Party ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
Gathering Data

This article aims to determine the effect of inflation, the BI Rate, the exchange rate of the rupiah to the US dollar, and the amount of money supply for Third Party Funds (TPF) in Indonesians’ Islamic Banks during 2013-2016. This research method uses multiple regression analysis with time series data; gathering data from 48 samples of which are monthly data on the variables.  The result of this research find that the inflation and exchange rate variables have no significant effect on TPF, while the BI Rate variable and the money supply have a significant effect on TPF. In doing so, Islamic banking can pay serious attention to the BI rate and the money supply and in this study the BI rate on the direction of TPF. Keywords: inflation, BI rate, exchange rate, Third Party Funds

Financial Innovation and Economic Growth

2006 ◽  
pp. 52-70
Author(s):  
Anita Ghatak
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
20Th Century ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Financial Innovation ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Money Stock ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Money Holding ◽  
The Uk

In this chapter, we assess the contribution of financial development to saving and economic growth in the UK in the 20th century. Financial development in this century has been by leaps and bounds along with a number of infamous crashes like the ones in the 1920s and in 1987. Using annual time-series data for the whole century, we find that financial growth has helped saving and economic growth in the UK throughout the 20th century. The unprecedented increase in money holding in 1965 and various forms of financial innovation and liberalisation initiated in the 1980s raised both the level and the rate of economic growth. Money-stock elasticity of GDP has been positive and statistically significant. There are long-run and unique co-integrated relations of GDP with productivity of capital and financial depth in the 20th century. The financial crash of Black Monday in 1987 upset equilibrium relations and led to a negative money-stock elasticity of economic growth.

scholarly journals Macroeconomic variables and banking sector development: Evidence from Nigeria

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
pp. 288-301
Author(s):  
Ojo Johnson Adelakun ◽  
Babatunde Afolabi ◽  
Uwasejike B Abuh
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Banking Sector Development ◽  
Bound Test

The study assessed the relationship between Macroeconomic Variables and Development in the Nigerian Banking Sector using annual time series data. Models were specified using Ratio of Credits to Private Sector to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as a proxy for Banking Sector Development. At the same time, GDP growth rate, Poverty, Exchange Rate, Oil Price, Poverty, Money Supply, Inflation, and Interest rates were the selected Macroeconomic Variables used in the study. Data used were sourced from the Statistical Bulletin of Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) for various editions and estimated using ARDL Bound Test and Vector Error Correction Mechanism (VECM). The study found that there exists a long-run relationship between Macroeconomic Variables selected and Banking Sector Development. The VECM coefficients revealed that all variables except Interest Rates have negative effects on Banking Sector Development. The VECM (-1), which showed the speed of adjustment, was rightly signed and significant, indicating a long-run causality relationship running from macroeconomic variables to banking sector development. The Impulse response from restricted VAR revealed that Banking Sector responded to the Macroeconomic Variables of which GDPGR and INT were transmitting negatively to Banking Sector Development while others were transmitting positive impulses. However, the variance decomposition found that oil price, followed by GDPGR and poverty, caused more variation in Banking Sector Development. In contrast, inflation and money supply caused the least variation in Banking Sector Development. The study, therefore, concluded that selected Macroeconomic Variables have a significant long-run relationship with Banking Sector Development. It is therefore recommended, among others that, Macroeconomic indicators should be well monitored and controlled using macroeconomic instruments promptly since when they are well managed would lead to a better developed Banking Sector in Nigeria.

scholarly journals The Long-Run and Short-Run Impacts of Investment, Export, Money Supply, and Inflation on Economic Growth In Indonesia

2019 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Erni Panca Kurniasih
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Term Investment

ABSTRACTThe development of investment and exports in Indonesia shows an increase, as well as money supply, while the inflation rate shows a decline, but this is not always followed by increasing economic growth. This study aims to explain the relationship between investment, export, money supply and inflation with the economic growth in Indonesia. The data used was time series data from the first quarter in 2001 to the fourth quarter in 2014 and was analyzed using multiple regression models with Error Correction Model (ECM) and classical assumptions. The study findings show that in short-term investment, export, money supply and inflation are not significant to economic growth. In long-run, investment has negative and significant effect on the economic growth, while export, money supply and inflation have positive and significant effect on the economic growth in Indonesia. Bank Indonesia must applied a tight money policy consistently to achieve the long-term inflation target ABSTRAKPerkembangan investasi dan ekspor di Indonesia menunjukkan peningkatan, demikian pula jumlah uang beredar, sementara tingkat inflasi menunjukkan penurunan, namun hal tersebut tidak selalu diikuti dengan meningkatnya pertumbuhan ekonomi. Studi ini bertujuan untuk menjelaskan hubungan antara investasi, ekspor neto, jumlah uang beredar dan inflasi terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di Indonesia. Data yang digunakan adalah data time series dari kuartal pertama tahun 2001 hingga kuartal keempat tahun 2014 dan dianalisa dengan menggunakan model regresi berganda dengan Error Correction Model (ECM). Hasil studi menunjukkan  bahwa investasi, ekspor, jumlah uang beredar dan inflasi tidak signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di Indonesia dalam jangka pendek. Investasi berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di Indonesia dalam jangka panjang, sedangkan ekspor , jumlah uang beredar dan inflasi berpengaruh positif dan  signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di Indonesia. Bank Indonesia harus menerapkan kebijakan moneter yang ketat secara konsisten pada pencapaian sasaran inflasi jangka menenngah 

scholarly journals Impact of Inflation Targeting Policy Framework of Countries between the Period of 2009-2019

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ananda Rathnayake
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Karl Marx ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Policy Framework ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

Today, many countries in the world tend to choose Inflation Targeting Monetary Policy Framework, in which context it has become a matter of debate whether inflation or economic growth is driven by monetary expansions. The common acceptance is that inflation is created by the continuous rise in the money supply which is strongly proved through the economic theories forwarded by Karl Marx, Irvin Fisher and Friedman. The main aim of the study is to examine the relationship between money supply and economic growth under a broad phenomenon by utilizing the countries with inflation targeting policies in action. The time-series data have been collected from different countries that exercise inflation targeting from 2009 to 2019 and the sample included 39 countries from all over the globe, both from developed and developing categories. The utilized Autoregressive Distribution Lag (ARDL) model forwarded the results suggesting that there is a significant negative relationship between the economic growth and money supply in the long run while no relationship has been observed in the short run.

IMPACT OF MONETARY POLICY TARGETS ON CAPITAL MARKET DEVELOPMENT IN NIGERIA

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 85-95
Author(s):  
Abdulkarim Musa ◽  
◽  
Uwaleke Uche ◽  
Nwala Nneka ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Capital Market ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Market Development ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This study empirically examines the impact of monetary policy targetson capital market development in Nigeria from 1986-2018. Time series data and econometric tools were used to test for the stationarity and causality effect. The Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) and Error Correction Model (ECM) techniques were used to examine the short-run and long-run impact and relationship between Monetary Policy and Capital Market Development in Nigeria. The study revealed that both in the long run and short run Exchange Rate (EXCHR), Inflation Rate (INFR), and Interest Rate in Nigeria (INTR)were negatively related to Capital Market Development (CAMKTD) in Nigeria and they were statistically insignificant in explaining changes in Capital Market Development (CAMKTD) in Nigeria. On the other hand, inthe long run, Money Supply was positively related to Capital Market Development (CAMKTD) in Nigeria and was statistically significant at a 5% level significant while Money Supply (M2) was positively related to Capital Market Development (CAMKTD) in Nigeria both in the long run and short-run and was statistically significant at 5% level of significance. Therefore, the study recommends that government should improve the efficiency and effectiveness of the money supply in Nigeria since it was statistically significant in determining the improvement of Capital Market Development (CAMKTD) in Nigeria.

scholarly journals Variable Trends in Economic Time Series

1988 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 147-174 ◽  
Author(s):  
James H Stock ◽  
Mark W Watson
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Economic Time Series ◽  
Growth Trend ◽  
Cyclical Fluctuations ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Stabilization Policies ◽  
Economic Time ◽  
The 1960S

The two most striking historical features of aggregate output are its sustained long run growth and its recurrent fluctuations around this growth path. Over horizons of a few years, these shorter cyclical swings can be pronounced; for example, the 1953, 1957, and 1974 recessions are evident as substantial temporary declines in aggregate activity. These cyclical fluctuations are, however, dwarfed in magnitude by the secular expansion of output. But just as there are cyclical swings in output, so too are there variations in the growth trend: growth in GNP in the 1960s was much stronger than it was in the 1950s. Thus, changes in long-run patterns of growth are an important feature of postwar aggregate economic activity. In this article, we discuss the implications of changing trends in macroeconomic data from two perspectives. The first perspective is that of a macroeconomist reassessing the conventional dichotomy between growth and stabilization policies. As an empirical matter, does this dichotomy make sense for the postwar United States? What is the relative “importance” of changes in the trend and cyclical swings in explaining the quarterly movements in economic aggregates? We next adopt the perspective of an econometrician interpreting empirical evidence based on data that contain variable trends. The presence of variable trends in time series data can lead one to draw mistaken inferences using conventional econometric techniques. How can these techniques -- or our interpretation of them -- be modified to avoid these mistakes?

Domestic and imports sources of supply to the US shrimp market and anti-dumping duties

2016 ◽  
Vol 43 (6) ◽  
pp. 1039-1056 ◽  
Author(s):  
Akbar Marvasti ◽  
David W. Carter
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Supply Curve ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Fuel Price ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Technological Advances ◽  
The Us ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
Exchange Rate Pass Through

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to provide an economic analysis of the sources of supply to the US shrimp market. Design/methodology/approach The paper uses monthly time series data to estimate a simultaneous equations model with equations for domestic supplies from the Gulf of Mexico, imports, and prices. Findings Estimated long-run elasticities suggest that the domestic shrimp supply appears to be explained by seasons, diesel fuel price, hurricane activity, and shrimp price. The authors find evidence of a downward-slopping supply curve for the domestic harvesters that is likely to be temporary. Furthermore, anti-dumping duties have been ineffectual in curtailing imports produced by exploitation of natural shrimp biomass in developing countries and by technological advancements in aquaculture production. The authors also find evidence of a low exchange rate pass through. Finally, while domestic and import prices are not cointegrated, there is a two-way causality between them. Practical implications The authors found evidence that shrimp prices have fallen as import supply, due to technological advances in aquaculture, has risen faster than the US domestic demand over time suggesting a downward sloping supply curve. Also, the falling value of the US dollar has discouraged the imports, while the anti-dumping duties appear to have had little influence on the aggregate level of imports. Originality/value It provides a thorough investigation of the supply side of an important component of the US seafood market displaying the complexity of domestic producers’ reaction to falling prices, and ineffectual protectionism.

scholarly journals Are Fiscal Deficits Really Inflationary? An Investigation Into Ethiopia’s Experience

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 11-24
Author(s):  
Minyahil Alemu
Keyword(s):  
Money Supply ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Empirical Support ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Budget Deficits ◽  
Least Squares Regression ◽  
Fiscal Deficits ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Domestic Capital

AbstractThis study establishes long-run relations between budget deficits and inflation, while controlling for money supply owing to the justified links between deficits and money supply especially for developing countries. We employed time series data with temporal coverage of 1980-2018. Augmented Dickey Fuller has tested nonstationary for all series, but with all stationary at first difference. The Engle-Granger (1981) methodology for Cointegration tested long-run relation between budget deficits, money supply and inflation. Due to Laney and Willet (1983), the conventional least squares regression was adopted to estimate parameters of long-run equation. The results evidenced that fiscal deficits and money supply have been at the root of galloping inflation in Ethiopia. Besides, budget deficits have been the root cause of money supply growth in Ethiopia; while giving empirical support to the hypothesis that, governments of least developed countries resort to monetize large portion of their deficits. There is a need to reform the fiscal aspect of the government, if the mounting rate of deficits has to be lessened. Budgetary imbalances can be rectified through enhancement of domestic capital market and setting limits on central bank borrowing. Besides, it could be vital to expand the tax base as well as intensify efficiency of the existing tax system in the country.

scholarly journals Asymmetric Impact of Oil Price on Inflation: Evidence from Nepal

2019 ◽  
Vol 31 (1) ◽  
pp. 21-46
Author(s):  
Dipesh Karki ◽  
Hari Gopal Risal
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Price Level ◽  
Petroleum Products ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Unit Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Asymmetric Adjustment ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Pass Through

This paper investigates asymmetric oil price pass through on inflation in Nepal using time series data of 331 months from April 1987 to February 2018. The paper applies Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model to estimate long run and short run asymmetric adjustment of refined petroleum products on Consumer Price Index (CPI). Finding shows presence of long run asymmetric adjustment between price of all petroleum products and CPI. However, when the model is controlled for monetary impact and price level of India, only the price of diesel is found to have long run asymmetric pass through into inflation. The long run cointegrating equation shows unit rise in price of diesel is accompanied by small contraction in CPI in long run by -0.048 units. Meanwhile unit fall in price of diesel is shown to have positive long run pass through in CPI by 0.431 units. This apparent anomaly could be attributed to fact that with rise in price of diesel, demand for cheaper adulterant like kerosene increases thus resulting in fall in CPI Similarly, fall in unit price of diesel could have overall increased industrial demand and other resources which in turn led to significant increase in CPI. Meanwhile, study didn’t find any significant asymmetry in short run between CPI and petroleum products. However, in short run a significant impact on the CPI by actual size of increased price of Petrol and Diesel has been found. Hence, in short run, it shows that it is the size of price increase in Petrol and Diesel; not the price itself that has significant effect on the CPI. Since petroleum products in Nepal are not priced by market, these findings can provide guidelines for future oil pricing in reducing the spillover impact on general price level.

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