UNIVERSAL METHOD FOR COMPUTATIONAL MODELING OF THRESHOLD PHENOMENON IN THE NONSTEADY BIOLOGICAL PROCESSES

Context. In modern conditions occur abrupt changes in ecosystems. The species composition of Caspian Sea is changing rapidly. The dynamics of populations acquires an extreme character with the development of rapid invasions. The mathematical description of scale transformations requires new modeling methods. Complicated population regimes of changes have features of the threshold phenomenon in process of its development. Objective. We set the goal of computational modeling of practically important scenarios – groups of situations that relate to extreme and transitional dynamics of ecosystems, like outbreaks at the onset of dangerous invasions. We are developing a method that, on the basis of the survival model of generations, will conduct a description of sudden transitions to rapid but limited outbreak of numbers or, on contrary, a collapse of stocks like Atlantic cod in 1992 or Peruan anchovy Engraulis ringens in 1985. The purpose of our modeling is to improve the accuracy of forecasts of the population size when experts are estimates a rational strategy for the exploitation of biological resources. Method. Situations of abrupt but short-term changes in population processes cannot be calculated by traditional mathematical models and expressed in terms of asymptotic dynamics – closed limit trajectory sets. The basis of the idea of the method proposed by us is the formalization of nonlinear efficiency of reproduction, which changes in a threshold manner only in strictly defined environmental conditions. We use continuous-discrete time in the model for early ontognosis of the cod fish and insect pests. The method with triggers allows us to take into account in simulation experiments logic and motivation of making decisions by experts, people who manage the strategy of exploiting biological resources. Models assess variability for development of situations Results. We have implemented new method of bounded trigger functionals into hybrid system of the equations, that acting in selected specific states of biosystems. Analysis of new model scenarios with modifications of functionals in the basic hybrid system for extreme situations in fish and insect pests is carried out. Conclusions. We consider the method to be universal, since selection of the functional can be adapted to a wide class of models using differential equations on a fixed interval.