scholarly journals Long-run equilibrium between personal income tax and economic growth in Bulgaria

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 55-67
Author(s):  
S. Tanchev ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Income Tax ◽  
Personal Income ◽  
Tax Revenue ◽  
Personal Income Tax ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Long Run Equilibrium

The study analyzes the relationship of personal income tax and economic growth in the long and short runs to show which type of income tax (progressive or proportional) is more compatible with Bulgaria’s economic growth. The methods of Vector Error Correction and Correlation are applied to determine the long-run and short-run impacts of the two types of income tax. The research covers the period from the first quarter of 1999 to the first quarter of 2020. Eurostat data (85 observations) were used. The empirical research has been divided into two periods. The long-run and short-run relationships between economic growth and tax revenue from progressive income tax in Bulgaria have first been studied, followed by the relationship between economic growth and the tax revenue from proportional income tax. The research results show that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship, but not a short-run relationship, between personal income tax and economic growth. The results imply that the progressive income tax is more compatible with economic growth than proportional income tax in Bulgaria in the long run. In the short run, the progressive income tax and proportional income tax have not shown statistically significant relationships with economic growth. Therefore, a progressive income tax leads to greater economic growth than a proportional income tax. From a long-run equilibrium standpoint, it is advisable that Bulgaria switch from proportional to progressive income taxation. It may be inferred that progressive taxation is more appropriate for economic growth than proportional taxation. The results are in conformity with the theory of endogenic growth and reject the neoclassical theory.

scholarly journals Tax Buoyancy and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence of Bulgaria

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 236-248
Author(s):  
S. Tanchev ◽  
◽  
I. Todorov ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Social Security ◽  
Income Tax ◽  
Personal Income ◽  
Tax Revenue ◽  
Personal Income Tax ◽  
Corporate Tax ◽  
Social Security Contributions ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

The study analyzes the long-run and short-run tax buoyancies of Bulgaria and their relationship with Bulgaria’s economic growth. The buoyancy measures the response of tax revenue to changes in economic growth. The buoyancy indicates whether collectability of the tax on income, profit, and consumption increases. The object of this study is the collectability of aggregate tax revenues and of the revenues from different types of taxes – value added tax, personal income tax, corporate tax and social security contributions in Bulgaria. The subject of the study is the relationship of different tax revenues with economic growth. The research methods employed are the fully modified least squares (FMOLS) and autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL). The research covers the period from the first quarter of 1999 to the second quarter of 2017 and uses the Eurostat data (78 observations). The study aims to show which type of revenues (from direct or from indirect taxes) is more important for Bulgaria’s state budget. It is shown that the buoyancies of aggregate tax revenue, personal income tax and social security contributions significantly differ from one another in the long-run. The buoyancies of the value-added tax and the corporate tax are above one in the long run. In the short-run the buoyancy of the aggregate tax revenues, the corporate tax, the income tax and the social security contributions are different from one. The short-run buoyancy of VAT exceeds one, hence dynamics of VAT revenues is sustainable. The collectability of the aggregate tax revenue, personal income tax and social security contributions has increased neither in the long run nor in the short run. It is therefore recommended that inefficient taxes, whose collectability does not increase, be reformed.

scholarly journals The Link between Tax Revenue Components and Economic Growth: Evidence from South Africa. An ARDL Approach

2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dumisani Pamba
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
International Trade ◽  
Income Tax ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Tax Revenue ◽  
Personal Income Tax ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

This study examined the link between tax revenue components and economic growth in South Africa, utilizing time series data for the period of 22 years. The stationarity of the variables was established using the Phillips-Perron (PP) unit root test, and the existence of long-run and short-run equilibrium conditions was tested using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. As a proxy for economic growth, the study used the real GDP growth rate as the dependent variable, with company income tax, personal income tax, taxes on international trade and transactions, taxes on income, profits, and capital gains tax, foreign direct investment, inflation, and gross savings as the independent variables. According to the PP findings, none of the variables are integrated at a higher order than one, i.e. (1). All variables are found to be cointegrated, and all explanatory variables have a long-run link with economic growth. According to the ARDL findings, company income tax, personal income tax, and taxes on international trade and transactions all have a positive long-run and short-run link with economic growth, whereas capital gain tax, foreign direct investment, and gross savings all have a negative long-run and short-run link with economic growth. The long-run coefficient is negatively related to RGDP, while the short-run coefficient revealed a positive link between inflation and economic growth, among other findings. Heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation are not present in our model, according to diagnostic tests. The CUSUM and CUSUMSQ values indicate that the model is structurally sound.

scholarly journals Estimating the Impact of Taxes on the Economic Growth in the United States

2017 ◽  
Vol 55 (4) ◽  
pp. 481-499 ◽  
Author(s):  
Branimir Kalaš ◽  
Vera Mirović ◽  
Jelena Andrašić
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Social Security ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Income Tax ◽  
Personal Income ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Tax Revenue ◽  
Personal Income Tax ◽  
Gross Domestic Product Growth ◽  
Social Security Contributions

AbstractIn a research paper, the authors provide an empirical approach to taxes and economic growth in the United States in the period 1996-2016. The basic goal is to explore how taxes affect economic growth. The subject of the research is measuring the effects of tax revenue growth and tax form as a personal income tax, corporate income tax and social security contributions on gross domestic product as a proxy for economic growth. Methodology framework includes several tests to clear the potential problem of heteroscedasticity, autocorrelation, multicollinearity and specification of the model. Based on diagnostic tests, a regression model is adequately created where fundamental econometric procedures are applied. Correlation matrix reflects a strong and positive relationship between tax revenue growth and corporate income tax on the one side and gross domestic product growth, on the another side. Also, personal income tax and social security contributions are weakly related to gross domestic product growth. The model shows a significant effect of tax revenue growth and social security contributions, while personal income tax and corporate income tax do not have a significant impact on gross domestic product growth. Interestingly, personal income tax as the main tax form in the tax structure of the United States has no significant impact on economic growth compared to social security contributions which percentage share is lesser.

The Economic and Environmental Impact of Large Financial Developments in an Oil-Dependent Economy

2020 ◽  
pp. 221-240
Author(s):  
Hanan Naser
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Environmental Impact ◽  
Vector Error Correction Model ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Market Shares ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Relationship

This study examines the economic and environmental impact of large financial developments in Bahrain from year 2006 to 2016. To do so, the relationship between energy consumption, oil prices, market shares, dividend yields, and economic growth has been investigated using Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The key findings are summarized as follow: (1) Long run relationship exists between the suggested variables. (2) Both energy and financial markets are significant in the long run relationship, and positively affect the economic growth of Bahrain. (3) According to the estimated ECM term, the model is stable in the short run. (4) Decline in oil price has negative significant drawback on the economic growth of Bahrain. Accordingly, it is recommended that policy makers in Bahrain focuses on implement strong strategies that aim at encouraging investments in non-oil sectors without impeding energy sector or economic growth in order to move towards sustainability.

scholarly journals The Relationship between Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth: A Case of Turkey

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (7) ◽  
pp. 85
Author(s):  
Orhan Gokmen
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Impulse Response Functions ◽  
Fdi Inflows ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Macro Variables ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Positive Effect

This paper examines the relationship between net FDI inflows and real GDP for Turkey from 1970 to 2019. Although conventional economic growth theories and most empirical research suggest that there is  a bi-directional positive effect between these macro variables, the results indicate that there is a uni- directional significant short-run positive effect of real GDP on net FDI inflows to Turkey by employing the Vector Error Correction Model, Granger Causality, Impulse Response Functions and Variance Decomposition. Also, there is no long-run effect of net FDI inflows found on real GDP, yet vice-versa long-run effect has been found. The findings recommend Turkish authorities optimally benefit from the potential positive effect of net incoming FDI on the real GDP by allocating it for the productive sectoral establishments while effectively maintaining the country’s real economic growth to attract further FDI inflows.

scholarly journals Poverty and Economic Growth in Mexico

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (10) ◽  
pp. 183 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jorge Garza-Rodriguez
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Poverty Reduction ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Development Literature ◽  
The Relationship

The relationship between poverty and economic growth has been widely discussed in the economic development literature during the past few decades. However, most of this research has been based on cross-sectional studies and very few studies have used time-series techniques to analyze this important issue. At the same time, there are also only a few studies analyzing this issue for the case of Mexico. Therefore, the objective of this paper was to analyze the relationship between poverty and economic growth in Mexico, using a cointegration analysis with structural change for the period 1960–2016. The Gregory-Hansen cointegration test confirmed the existence of a long-term equilibrium relationship between poverty reduction and economic growth, both in the short run and in the long run. Using a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), we find that, in the long run, a 1% increase in economic growth leads to a 2.4% increase in per capita consumption (and therefore poverty reduction). This estimate is similar to those obtained in other studies for the case of Mexico and for other developing countries. Also, using the Granger causality test, it was found that there is a bidirectional causality relationship between poverty reduction and economic growth in Mexico.

Electricity consumption and economic growth in ASEAN

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 16
Author(s):  
Ahmad Ghazali Ismail ◽  
Arlinah Abd Rashid ◽  
Azlina Hanif
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Energy Use ◽  
Electricity Consumption ◽  
Panel Estimation ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Bidirectional Relationship ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Relationship

The relationship and causality direction between electricity consumption and economic growth is an important issue in the fields of energy economics and policies towards energy use. Extensive literatures has discussed the issue, but the array of findings provides anything but consensus on either the existence of relations or direction of causality between the variables. This study extends research in this area by studying the long-run and causal relations between economic growth, electricity consumption, labour and capital based on the neo-classical one sector aggregate production technology mode using data of electricity consumption and real GDP for ASEAN from the year 1983 to 2012. The analysis is conducted using advanced panel estimation approaches and found no causality in the short run while in the long-run, the results indicate that there are bidirectional relationship among variables. This study provides supplementary evidences of relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in ASEAN.

ANALISIS PENGARUH EKSPOR TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI INDONESIA

2017 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-20
Author(s):  
Ari Mulianta Ginting
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Export Performance ◽  
Descriptive Analysis ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Administration System ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Available Information ◽  
Increasing Trends ◽  
The Relationship

Ekspor merupakan salah satu faktor terjadinya peningkatan pertumbuhan ekonomi suatu negara, sejalan dengan hipotesis export-led growth (ELG). Penelitian ini menganalisis perkembangan ekspor dan pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia periode kuartal I 2001 sampai dengan kuartal IV 2015. Penelitian ini menggunakan analisis deskriptif dalam menggambarkan perkembangan pertumbuhan ekonomi serta ekspor dan analisis kuantitatif metode Error Correction Model (ECM) dalam menganalisis efek jangka panjang dan jangka pendek dari ekspor terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. Pada periode penelitian, data yang ada menunjukkan bahwa ekspor dan pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia sama-sama mengalami peningkatan. Hasil regresi ECM menunjukkan bahwa ekspor memiliki pengaruh yang positif dan signifikan secara statistik terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia, yang mendukung hipotesis bahwa ELG berlaku untuk Indonesia. Berdasarkan hasil penelitian ini, maka untuk mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia diperlukan peningkatan kinerja ekspor Indonesia. Peningkatan kinerja ekspor Indonesia dapat dilakukan dengan berbagai cara, salah satunya adalah dengan perbaikan sistem administrasi ekspor, peningkatan riset dan pengembangan produk Indonesia, peningkatan sarana dan prasarana infrastruktur, stabilitas nilai tukar dan perluasan pasar non tradisional, termasuk perbaikan struktur ekspor komoditas. Export is one of the factors behind the economic growth which is in line with the export-led growth hypotesis (ELG). This research analyzes the relationship between economic growth and export of Indonesia during first quarter of 2001 until fourth quarter of 2015. It employs descriptive analysis to describe export movement and economic growth during the study period and ECM model to analyze the long run and the short run effects of export on the economic growth. The available information indicated that, during the study period, both export and economic growth showed similar increasing trends. The result of the ECM model revealed that export had a positive and statistically significant relationship with the economic growth, supporting the hypotesis of ELG in Indonesia. Hence, to accelerate economic growth, efforts are required to boost the export performance in Indonesia. The Export performance can be increased by several way, such as improving the export administration system, increasing the research and development of Indonesian products, improving the facilities and infrastructure, exchange rate stability and the non-tradisional markets expansion, and including improvement of the export commodity structure.

Enhancing Economic Growth and Government Revenue Generation in Nigeria: The Role of Diaspora Remittances

2021 ◽  
pp. 003464462110256
Author(s):  
Dal Didia ◽  
Suleiman Tahir
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Parameter Estimates ◽  
Gross Domestic Product Growth ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Empirical Analysis

Even though remittances constitute the second-largest source of foreign exchange for Nigeria, with a $24 billion inflow in 2018, its impact on economic growth remains unclear. This study, therefore, examined the short-run and long-run impact of remittances on the economic growth of Nigeria using the vector error correction model. Utilizing World Bank data covering 1990–2018, the empirical analysis revealed that remittances hurt economic growth in the short run while having no impact on economic growth in the long run. Our parameter estimates indicate that a 1% increase in remittances would result in a 0.9% decrease in the gross domestic product growth rate in the short run. One policy implication of this study is that Nigeria needs to devise policies and interventions that minimize the emigration of skilled professionals rather than depending on remittances that do not offset the losses to the economy due to brain drain.

The relationship between financial development and economic growth in Eswatini (formerly Swaziland)

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Siphe-okuhle Fakudze ◽  
Asrat Tsegaye ◽  
Kin Sibanda
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Relationship

PurposeThe paper examined the relationship between financial development and economic growth for the period 1996 to 2018 in Eswatini.Design/methodology/approachThe Autoregressive Distributed Lag bounds test (ARDL) was employed to determine the long-run and short-run dynamics of the link between the variables of interest. The Granger causality test was also performed to establish the direction of causality between financial development and economic growth.FindingsThe ARDL results revealed that there is a long-run relationship between financial development and economic growth. The Granger causality test revealed bidirectional causality between money supply and economic growth, and unidirectional causality running from economic growth to financial development. The results highlight that economic growth exerts a positive and significant influence on financial development, validating the demand following hypothesis in Eswatini.Practical implicationsPolicymakers should formulate policies that aims to engineer more economic growth. The policies should strike a balance between deploying funds necessary to stimulate investment and enhancing productivity in order to enliven economic growth in Eswatini.Originality/valueThe study investigates the finance-growth linkage using time series analysis. It determines the long-run and short-run dynamics of this relationship and examines the Granger causality outcomes.

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