scholarly journals Recent movement of oil prices and future scenarios

Nova Economia ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 29 (1) ◽  
pp. 223-248
Author(s):  
Fernando Antonio Lucena Aiube ◽  
Ariel Levy
Keyword(s):  
Term Structure ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Spot Price ◽  
Oil Companies ◽  
Capital Budget ◽  
Recent Movement ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Government Planning ◽  
Log Normal ◽  
Near Future

Abstract The recent movement of oil prices has brought many forecasts about what is coming in the near future. This is natural since the plunge in prices has been dramatic after 2014 and oil is an essential source of energy worldwide. This paper examines the probabilities of spot price scenarios. We model prices through stochastic processes focusing on the Schwartz-Smith model. The calibration is based on the term structure of future prices. Since the conditional distribution is log-normal we define the probability of a certain value of the spot price in a given time horizon. We found that the recovery of crude oil prices will be slow in the next four years. Moreover, the scenario of prices under US$ 20/barrel has the same probability as being greater than US$ 50/barrel. The methodology has many applications, mainly for government planning and for oil companies in their capital budget decisions.

scholarly journals Forecasting Volatility of Crude oil Prices using Box-Jenkins's Autoregressive Moving Average: Evidence from Indian Chemical Industry

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 229-234
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Information Criteria ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Spot Price ◽  
Autoregressive Moving Average ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Oil Companies ◽  
Crude Oil Prices

The current paper deals with to forecast volatility in crude oil prices in Indian economy. In the current study volatility is measured through change in monthly crude oil prices per barrel. The monthly data of crude oil price have taken from January 1995 to May, 2017. The different unit root tests are applied to test check change in crude oil price series is stationary or non stationary. Box-Jenkins's Autoregressive Moving Average of Box-Jenkins methodology has been used for developing a forecasting model. Minimum Akaike Information Criteria (AIC) has been opted to arrive at fit good ARMA model. According to this criteria (4, 3)(0,0) was observed as one of the best model to predict the volatility in future crude oil prices. Forecasted volatility in prices may be utilized for calculating future spot price and hedging future risk. Moreover, forecasted prices volatility of crude oil will also beneficial to oil companies, policy makers for formulating different economic policies and taking some crucial economic decision.

Shock Propagation Across the Futures Term Structure: Evidence from Crude Oil Prices

2019 ◽  
Vol 40 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Delphine H. Lautier ◽  
Franck Raynaud ◽  
Michel A. Robe
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Term Structure ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Shock Propagation ◽  
Crude Oil Prices

scholarly journals Venezuela's Nascent Oil Industry and the 1932 US Tariff on Crude Oil Imports, 1927–1935

2009 ◽  
Vol 27 (3) ◽  
pp. 427-462 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brian S. McBeth
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Industry ◽  
Petroleum Products ◽  
Initial Development ◽  
Oil Companies ◽  
Competitive Edge ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
The Impact

ABSTRACTAfter a brief description of the initial development of Venezuela's crude oil industry, this paper examines the impact the 1932 US tariff on crude oil imports had on the country. The US tariff on crude oil imports stabilised domestic crude oil prices but prevented consumers from benefting from lower prices in refned petroleum products. The large us international integrated crude oil companies gained from higher crude oil prices for their domestic production while supplying their european markets with mostly cheap crude oil from their newly developed Venezuelan oilfelds. The tariff increased the Venezuelan oil industry's vulnerability to international events because it narrowed the competitive edge it had over domestic us crude oil production. consequently, the Gómez dictatorship in Venezuela at the time became more dependent on the oil companies operating in the country since they could reduce production considerably, or even leave the country as quickly as they entered with a negative impact on government revenues.

An Empirical Investigation of Factors Affecting Stock Prices in Vietnam

2014 ◽  
pp. 74-89 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vinh Vo Xuan
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Foreign Exchange Rates ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Before And After

This paper investigates factors affecting Vietnam’s stock prices including US stock prices, foreign exchange rates, gold prices and crude oil prices. Using the daily data from 2005 to 2012, the results indicate that Vietnam’s stock prices are influenced by crude oil prices. In addition, Vietnam’s stock prices are also affected significantly by US stock prices, and foreign exchange rates over the period before the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. There is evidence that Vietnam’s stock prices are highly correlated with US stock prices, foreign exchange rates and gold prices for the same period. Furthermore, Vietnam’s stock prices were cointegrated with US stock prices both before and after the crisis, and with foreign exchange rates, gold prices and crude oil prices only during and after the crisis.

Determinants of Inflation in Vietnam: A VECM Approach

2015 ◽  
Vol 22 (04) ◽  
pp. 26-50
Author(s):  
Ngoc Tran Thi Bich ◽  
Huong Pham Hoang Cam
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Domestic Credit ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This paper aims to examine the main determinants of inflation in Vietnam during the period from 2002Q1 to 2013Q2. The cointegration theory and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) approach are used to examine the impact of domestic credit, interest rate, budget deficit, and crude oil prices on inflation in both long and short terms. The results show that while there are long-term relations among inflation and the others, such factors as oil prices, domestic credit, and interest rate, in the short run, have no impact on fluctuations of inflation. Particularly, the budget deficit itself actually has a short-run impact, but its level is fundamentally weak. The cause of the current inflation is mainly due to public's expectations of the inflation in the last period. Although the error correction, from the long-run relationship, has affected inflation in the short run, the coefficient is small and insignificant. In other words, it means that the speed of the adjustment is very low or near zero. This also implies that once the relationship among inflation, domestic credit, interest rate, budget deficit, and crude oil prices deviate from the long-term trend, it will take the economy a lot of time to return to the equilibrium state.

Dynamic Relationship between Crude Oil and Stock Prices in India: Before And After the Subprime Financial Crisis 2008

GIS Business ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 14 (6) ◽  
pp. 96-104
Author(s):  
P. Sakthivel ◽  
S. Rajaswaminathan ◽  
R. Renuka ◽  
N. R.Vembu
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Energy Index ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Dynamic Relationship ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Before And After

This paper empirically discovered the inter-linkages between stock and crude oil prices before and after the subprime financial crisis 2008 by using Johansan co-integration and Granger causality techniques to explore both long and short- run relationships.  The whole data set of Nifty index, Nifty energy index, BSE Sensex, BSE energy index and oil prices are divided into two periods; before crisis (from February 15, 2005 to December31, 2007) and after crisis (from January 1, 2008 to December 31, 2018) are collected and analyzed. The results discovered that there is one-way causal relationship from crude oil prices to Nifty index, Nifty energy index, BSE Sensex and BSE energy index but not other way around in both periods. However, a bidirectional causality relationship between BSE Energy index and crude oil prices during post subprime financial crisis 2008. The co-integration results suggested that the absence of long run relationship between crude oil prices and market indices of BSE Sensex, BSE energy index, Nifty index and Nifty energy index before and after subprime financial crisis 2008.

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