scholarly journals Confidence intervals for the duration of a mass extinction

Paleobiology ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 38 (2) ◽  
pp. 265-277 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steve C. Wang ◽  
Aaron E. Zimmerman ◽  
Brendan S. McVeigh ◽  
Philip J. Everson ◽  
Heidi Wong
Keyword(s):  
Confidence Interval ◽  
Confidence Intervals ◽  
Late Cretaceous ◽  
Mass Extinction ◽  
Fossil Record ◽  
Mass Extinctions ◽  
Late Permian ◽  
Stratigraphic Section ◽  
Stratigraphic Thickness ◽  
Seymour Island

A key question in studies of mass extinctions is whether the extinction was a sudden or gradual event. This question may be addressed by examining the locations of fossil occurrences in a stratigraphic section. However, the fossil record can be consistent with both sudden and gradual extinctions. Rather than being limited to rejecting or not rejecting a particular scenario, ideally we should estimate therangeof extinction scenarios that is consistent with the fossil record. In other words, rather than testing the simplified distinction of “sudden versus gradual,” we should be asking, “How gradual?”In this paper we answer the question “How gradual could the extinction have been?” by developing a confidence interval for the duration of a mass extinction. We define the duration of the extinction as the time or stratigraphic thickness between the first and last taxon to go extinct, which we denote by Δ. For example, we would like to be able to say with 90% confidence that the extinction took place over a duration of 0.3 to 1.1 million years, or 24 to 57 meters of stratigraphic thickness. Our method does not deny the possibility of a truly simultaneous extinction; rather, in this framework, a simultaneous extinction is one whose value of Δ is equal to zero years or meters.We present an algorithm to derive such estimates and show that it produces valid confidence intervals. We illustrate its use with data from Late Permian ostracodes from Meishan, China, and Late Cretaceous ammonites from Seymour Island, Antarctica.

Modeling bivalve diversification: the effect of interaction on a macroevolutionary system

Paleobiology ◽  
1988 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 364-369 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arnold I. Miller ◽  
J. John Sepkoski
Keyword(s):  
Late Cretaceous ◽  
Mass Extinction ◽  
Logistic Model ◽  
Slow Growth ◽  
The Other ◽  
Mass Extinctions ◽  
Late Permian ◽  
Two Phase ◽  
Global Diversity ◽  
Permian Mass Extinction

The global diversification of the class Bivalvia has historically received two conflicting interpretations. One is that a major upturn in diversification was associated with, and a consequence of, the Late Permian mass extinction. The other is that mass extinctions have had little influence and that bivalves have experienced slow but nearly steady exponential diversification through most of their history, unaffected by interactions with other clades. We find that the most likely explanation lies between these two interpretations. Through most of the Phanerozoic, the diversity of bivalves did indeed exhibit slow growth, which was not substantially altered by mass extinctions. However, the presence of “hyperexponential bursts” in diversification during the initial Ordovician radiation and following the Late Permian and Late Cretaceous mass extinctions suggests a more complex history in which a higher characteristic diversification rate was dampened through most of the Phanerozoic. The observed pattern can be accounted for with a two-phase coupled (i.e., interactive) logistic model, where one phase is treated as the “bivalves” and the other phase is treated as a hypothetical group of clades with which the “bivalves” might have interacted. Results of this analysis suggest that interactions with other taxa have substantially affected bivalve global diversity through the Phanerozoic.

Mass Extinctions as Statistical Phenomena: An Examination of the Evidence Using χ2 Tests and Bootstrapping

Paleobiology ◽  
1992 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 148-160 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alan E. Hubbard ◽  
Norman L. Gilinsky
Keyword(s):  
Late Cretaceous ◽  
Mass Extinction ◽  
Late Ordovician ◽  
Statistical Evidence ◽  
Mass Extinctions ◽  
Late Permian ◽  
Turnover Rates ◽  
Historical Evidence ◽  
Extinction Events ◽  
Mass Extinction Events

Although much natural historical evidence has been adduced in support of the occurrence of several mass extinctions during the Phanerozoic, unambiguous statistical confirmation of the mass extinction phenomenon has remained elusive. Using bootstrapping techniques that have not previously been applied to the study of mass extinction, we have amassed strong or very strong statistical evidence for mass extinctions (see text for definitions) during the Late Ordovician, Late Permian, and Late Cretaceous. Bootstrapping therefore verifies three of the mass extinction events that were proposed by Raup and Sepkoski (1982). A small amount of bootstrapping evidence is also presented for mass extinctions in the Induan (Triassic) and Coniacean (Cretaceous) Stages, but high overall turnover rates (including high origination) in the Induan and uncertain estimates of the temporal duration of the Coniacean force us to conclude that the evidence is not compelling.We also present the results of more liberal X2 tests of the differences between expected and observed numbers of familial extinctions for stratigraphic stages. In addition to verifying the mass extinctions identified using bootstrapping, these analyses suggest that several stages that could not be verified as mass extinction stages using bootstrapping (including the last three in the Devonian, and the Norian Stage of the Triassic) should still be regarded as candidates for mass extinction. Further analysis will be required to test these stages in more detail.

scholarly journals Confidence intervals for pulsed mass extinction events

Paleobiology ◽  
2007 ◽  
Vol 33 (2) ◽  
pp. 324-336 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steve C. Wang ◽  
Philip J. Everson
Keyword(s):  
Confidence Intervals ◽  
Mass Extinction ◽  
Fossil Record ◽  
Marine Invertebrates ◽  
Ratio Test ◽  
Mass Extinctions ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Triassic Boundary ◽  
Multiple Pulses ◽  
Extinction Events

Many authors have proposed scenarios for mass extinctions that consist of multiple pulses or stages, but little work has been done on accounting for the Signor-Lipps effect in such extinction scenarios. Here we introduce a method for computing confidence intervals for the time or stratigraphic distance separating two extinction pulses in a pulsed extinction event, taking into account the incompleteness of the fossil record. We base our method on a flexible likelihood ratio test framework that is able to test whether the fossil record is consistent with any extinction scenario, whether simultaneous, pulsed, or otherwise. As an illustration, we apply our method to a data set on marine invertebrates from the Permo-Triassic boundary of Meishan, China. Using this data set, we show that the fossil record of ostracodes and that of brachiopods are each consistent with simultaneous extinction, and that these two extinction pulses are separated by 720,000 to 1.2 million years with 95% confidence. With appropriate data, our method could also be applied in other situations, such as tests of origination patterns, coordinated stasis, and recovery after a mass extinction.

Within- and among-genus components of size evolution during mass extinction, recovery, and background intervals: a case study of Late Permian through Late Triassic foraminifera

Paleobiology ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 38 (4) ◽  
pp. 627-643 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brianna L. Rego ◽  
Steve C. Wang ◽  
Demir Altiner ◽  
Jonathan L. Payne
Keyword(s):  
Mass Extinction ◽  
Extinction Risk ◽  
Maximum Size ◽  
Size Reduction ◽  
Late Triassic ◽  
Mass Extinctions ◽  
Late Permian ◽  
Biotic Recovery ◽  
Size Evolution ◽  
Selective Extinction

One of the best-recognized patterns in the evolution of organismal size is the tendency for mean and maximum size within a clade to decrease following a major extinction event and to increase during the subsequent recovery interval. Because larger organisms are typically thought to be at higher extinction risk than their smaller relatives, it has commonly been assumed that size reduction mostly reflects the selective extinction of larger species. However, to our knowledge the relative importance of within- and among-lineage processes in driving overall trends in body size has never been compared quantitatively. In this study, we use a global, specimen-level database of foraminifera to study size evolution from the Late Permian through Late Triassic. We explicitly decompose size evolution into within- and among-genus components. We find that size reduction following the end-Permian mass extinction was driven more by size reduction within surviving species and genera than by the selective extinction of larger taxa. Similarly, we find that increase in mean size across taxa during Early Triassic biotic recovery was a product primarily of size increase within survivors and the extinction of unusually small taxa, rather than the origination of new, larger taxa. During background intervals we find no strong or consistent tendency for extinction, origination, or within-lineage change to move the overall size distribution toward larger or smaller sizes. Thus, size stasis during background intervals appears to result from small and inconsistent effects of within- and among-lineage processes rather than from large but offsetting effects of within- and among-taxon components. These observations are compatible with existing data for other taxa and extinction events, implying that mass extinctions do not influence size evolution by simply selecting against larger organisms. Instead, they appear to create conditions favorable to smaller organisms.

Extinction from a paleontological perspective

1993 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
pp. 207-216 ◽  
Author(s):  
David M. Raup
Keyword(s):  
Mass Extinction ◽  
Fossil Record ◽  
Mass Extinctions ◽  
Evolutionary Time ◽  
Widespread Species ◽  
Chance Coincidence ◽  
Independent Events

Extinction of widespread species is common in evolutionary time (millions of years) but rare in ecological time (hundreds or thousands of years). In the fossil record, there appears to be a smooth continuum between background and mass extinction; and the clustering of extinctions at mass extinctions cannot be explained by the chance coincidence of independent events. Although some extinction is selective, much is apparently random in that survivors have no recognizable superiority over victims. Extinction certainly plays an important role in evolution, but whether it is constructive or destructive has not yet been determined.

Paleocene diversification of bucciniform gastropods on Seymour Island, Antarctica

1996 ◽  
Vol 70 (6) ◽  
pp. 923-934 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anton E. Oleinik ◽  
William J. Zinsmeister
Keyword(s):  
New Species ◽  
Mass Extinction ◽  
Fossil Record ◽  
New Genus ◽  
Shell Morphology ◽  
Geographic Isolation ◽  
Extinction Event ◽  
Early Paleocene ◽  
Mass Extinction Event ◽  
Seymour Island

Following the mass extinction event at the end of the Cretaceous, the marine molluscan faunas of the high southern latitudes underwent a marked period of diversification during the early Paleocene. The appearance of four new species belonging to the new genus Seymourosphaera, tentatively placed in the subfamily Pseudolivinae, from the lower Paleocene strata of Seymour Island, Antarctic Peninsula, clearly illustrates the post-Cretaceous extinction diversification. The abrupt radiation of the buccinids during the early Paleocene, was also apparently related to geographic isolation of Antarctica during final breakup of Gondwana. Comparative analysis of shell morphology of Seymourosphaera, new genus reveals close morphologic similarities, not only with taxa within Pseudolivinae, but also with several genera and subgenera belonging to the families Buccinidae and Nassariidae. However, incompleteness of the fossil record and a “generalized” shell morphology make difficult establishment of unequivocal phylogenetic relationships for Seymourosphaera. A taxonomic review of most closely related, and possibly ancestral genus Austrosphaera Camacho, 1949, is provided. The following new species of genus Seymourosphaera new genus are described: Seymourosphaera bulloides new species, S. subglobosa new species, S. depressa new species, and S. elevata new species.

Note on the preservation of a limpet in living position from the Late Cretaceous, Seymour Island, Antarctica

1990 ◽  
Vol 64 (3) ◽  
pp. 477-478 ◽  
Author(s):  
William J. Zinsmeister
Keyword(s):  
Late Cretaceous ◽  
Life Style ◽  
Fossil Record ◽  
A Site ◽  
Seymour Island

Although limpets are fairly common in shelly deposits, there are no reports of limpets preserved in the living position from the fossil record. The life style of capped-shaped limpet gastropods almost precludes preservation in a living position. Herbivorous alga-feeding limpets live attached to a firm surface. The surfaces of attachment vary widely from rocky surfaces, shells, or seaweed. Upon death the shells become detached and are incorporated in the nearby sediments or are transported to a site of final deposition.

scholarly journals Diversification events and the effects of mass extinctions on Crocodyliformes evolutionary history

2015 ◽  
Vol 2 (5) ◽  
pp. 140385 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mario Bronzati ◽  
Felipe C. Montefeltro ◽  
Max C. Langer
Keyword(s):  
Mass Extinction ◽  
Fossil Record ◽  
Evolutionary History ◽  
Continuous Process ◽  
Mass Extinctions ◽  
Terrestrial Habitats ◽  
History Of ◽  
The Rich ◽  
A Minor ◽  
Diversification Event

The rich fossil record of Crocodyliformes shows a much greater diversity in the past than today in terms of morphological disparity and occupation of niches. We conducted topology-based analyses seeking diversification shifts along the evolutionary history of the group. Our results support previous studies, indicating an initial radiation of the group following the Triassic/Jurassic mass extinction, here assumed to be related to the diversification of terrestrial protosuchians, marine thalattosuchians and semi-aquatic lineages within Neosuchia. During the Cretaceous, notosuchians embodied a second diversification event in terrestrial habitats and eusuchian lineages started diversifying before the end of the Mesozoic. Our results also support previous arguments for a minor impact of the Cretaceous/Palaeogene mass extinction on the evolutionary history of the group. This argument is not only based on the information from the fossil record, which shows basal groups surviving the mass extinction and the decline of other Mesozoic lineages before the event, but also by the diversification event encompassing only the alligatoroids in the earliest period after the extinction. Our results also indicate that, instead of a continuous process through time, Crocodyliformes diversification was patchy, with events restricted to specific subgroups in particular environments and time intervals.

The effect of random range truncations on patterns of evolution in the fossil record

Paleobiology ◽  
1990 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 512-520 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark S. Springer
Keyword(s):  
Confidence Intervals ◽  
Fossil Record ◽  
Sampling Methods ◽  
Gap Analysis ◽  
Test Statistic ◽  
Recent Advances ◽  
Biotic Diversity ◽  
Extinction Event ◽  
Fossil Preservation ◽  
Seymour Island

Both fossil preservation and sampling methods affect perceived patterns of biotic diversity. Artificial range truncations, for example, may lead to incongruences between apparent- and actual-diversity curves. Thus, a catastrophic extinction event may appear gradual. Recent advances in biostratigraphic-gap analysis provide models for the distribution of gap lengths between fossil occurrence horizons and provide methods to place confidence intervals on local taxon ranges and remove the biases caused by artificial range truncations. Confidence intervals for a set of local taxon ranges may then be evaluated collectively to test a hypothesis of co-extinction/co-emigration or co-origination/co-immigration. In the case of terminal Cretaceous ammonites from Seymour Island, range-chart data are compatible with an abrupt extinction event, although the test statistic is not minimized at the stratigraphic horizon that was suggested by Macellari (1986).

scholarly journals Estimates of the magnitudes of major marine mass extinctions in earth history

2016 ◽  
Vol 113 (42) ◽  
pp. E6325-E6334 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven M. Stanley
Keyword(s):  
Mass Extinction ◽  
Marine Species ◽  
Ecological Diversity ◽  
Mass Extinctions ◽  
Late Permian ◽  
Marine Animals ◽  
Earth History ◽  
Enormous Amount ◽  
Terminal Permian ◽  
Combined Data

Procedures introduced here make it possible, first, to show that background (piecemeal) extinction is recorded throughout geologic stages and substages (not all extinction has occurred suddenly at the ends of such intervals); second, to separate out background extinction from mass extinction for a major crisis in earth history; and third, to correct for clustering of extinctions when using the rarefaction method to estimate the percentage of species lost in a mass extinction. Also presented here is a method for estimating the magnitude of the Signor–Lipps effect, which is the incorrect assignment of extinctions that occurred during a crisis to an interval preceding the crisis because of the incompleteness of the fossil record. Estimates for the magnitudes of mass extinctions presented here are in most cases lower than those previously published. They indicate that only ∼81% of marine species died out in the great terminal Permian crisis, whereas levels of 90–96% have frequently been quoted in the literature. Calculations of the latter numbers were incorrectly based on combined data for the Middle and Late Permian mass extinctions. About 90 orders and more than 220 families of marine animals survived the terminal Permian crisis, and they embodied an enormous amount of morphological, physiological, and ecological diversity. Life did not nearly disappear at the end of the Permian, as has often been claimed.

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