scholarly journals The Emergence of Forward Guidance As a Monetary Policy Tool

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 (032) ◽  
pp. 1-59
Author(s):  
Edward Nelson ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Policy Instruments ◽  
Open Market ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Interest Rate Policy ◽  
Forward Guidance ◽  
Policy Tool

Forward guidance—the issuance by a central bank of public statements concerning the likely future settings of its policy instruments—is widely regarded as a new tool of monetary policy. The analysis in this paper shows that Federal Reserve policymakers from the 1950s onward actually accepted the premises of forward guidance: the notion that longer-term interest rates are key yields in aggregate spending decisions; and the proposition that indications of intentions regarding future short-term interest rate policy can affect longer-term rates. Over the same period, they were nevertheless wary about providing forward guidance regarding short-term interest rates, fearing that this could generate untoward market reactions or lock the Federal Open Market Committee into inappropriate rate settings. They concentrated on describing future policy in terms of achievement of economic objectives, with their commentary on interest-rate prospects usually confined to consideration of the longer-term factors affecting rates. Even in these years, however, there were infrequent occasions—notably in 1974 and 1982—when policymakers provided more explicit guidance regarding the path of short-term rates. In the 1990s, a consensus developed in U.S. policy circles that was more receptive toward the notion of guiding longer-term interest rates by providing indications of future FOMC actions. This consensus developed even before concerns about the lower bound on short-term rates became prevalent in U.S. policymaking. The new mindset, which stressed the stabilizing effects on the economy of communication of policy intentions, set the stage for the emergence of forward guidance as a monetary policy tool.

Impacts of monetary instruments on overnight spread under the interest rate corridor framework: evidence from China

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Chiu-Lan Chang ◽  
Ming Fang ◽  
Bin Hong ◽  
Kung-Cheng Ho
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Policy Instruments ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Interest Rate Policy ◽  
Interest Rate Liberalization ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Financing Market

PurposeTo verify the effectiveness of the monetary policy, the impacts of monetary instruments on overnight spread under the interest rate corridor (IRC) are examined. The People's Bank of China (PBC) has operated the IRC since 2014. To understand the impacts of monetary instruments on overnight spread before and after the IRC framework, the complete samples are divided into two periods.Design/methodology/approachTo model the overnight spread, an exponential GARCH (EGARCH) approach is used which can examine the interbank market interest rates for monetary policy purposes. The overnight money market plays an important role in the implementation of monetary policy.FindingsChinese interest rate liberalization and the implementation of IRC affect the overnight spread in the short-term financing market. Before the implementation of the IRC, the key factor to affect the overnight spread is mainly affected by the PBC's monetary policy control on the liquidity supply side. After the implementation of IRC, the overnight spread can be the largest part explained by the liquidity demand side and the PBC's multiple monetary instruments have significant impacts on the reduction of overnight spread.Originality/valueThe overnight spread has recently been influenced by various factors that are directly or closely related to the monetary policy instruments and the interest rate policy of the PBC. Chinese interest rate liberalization and the implementation of interest rate corridor policy affect the overnight spread in the short-term financing market.

scholarly journals THEORETICAL ASPECTS OF DETERMINING THE INTEREST RATE IN THE TRANSFORMATION OF MONETARY POLICY

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (34) ◽  
Author(s):  
T.A GORBACHEVA ◽  
◽  
T.N BARKOVA ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Time Lag ◽  
The United States ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Interest Rate Policy ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Number Of Factors ◽  
The Interest Rate

Modern practice of macroeconomic management is based on the regulation of money supply through the management of interest rates, mainly short-term. Short-term interest rate management is a Central approach to implementing monetary policy in countries such as the United States, the United Kingdom, and the Euro area. By changing the interest rates on operations of providing or absorbing liquidity, the national Central Bank has a significant impact on the level of interest rates for the same period in the money market. Consequently, the structure of all short-term rates changes for a longer period. Depending on a number of factors, including the exchange rate and the expected level of inflation, the structure of long-term interest rates also changes. Each change occurs with a certain time lag. Changes in interest rates affect the savings and investment decisions of households and firms. The purpose of this article is to study the transformation of the concept of interest and the development of interest rate theories. There are used methods of critical and comparative analysis, a systematic approach to the study of information. The theoretical aspects of determining the interest rate in the development of monetary policy are systematized. The main approaches to the development of interest rate policy in the framework of monetary regulation are studied. The obtained theoretical results can be used in the formation and adjustment of monetary policy.

scholarly journals Monetary Conditions Index: A Composite Measure of Monetary Policy in Pakistan

2002 ◽  
Vol 41 (4II) ◽  
pp. 551-566 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdul Qayyum
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Bank Lending ◽  
Open Market ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Rate Effects ◽  
The Interest Rate

Accurate measures of the size and direction of changes in monetary policy are very important. A number of variables/indicators have been used as a measure of the stance of monetary policy the world over. These include growth rates of monetary aggregates and credit aggregates, short-term interest rate as used by Sims (1992), index of minutes of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), as suggested by Friedman and Schwartz (1963) and reintroduced by Romer and Romer (1989), monetary policy index constructed by employing Vector Autoregression (VAR) estimation technique with prior information from Central Bank such as Bernanke and Blinder (1992) and Bernanke and Mihov (1998), and Monetary Conditions Index (MCI)—which is the focus of this paper—constructed by and used by Bank of Canada [Freedman (1995)], taking into consideration the interest rate and exchange rate channel of monetary policy transmission mechanism in a small open economy. In case of open economy it is assumed that the monetary policy affects the economy and the prime objective of monetary policy, rate of inflation, through two important transmission mechanisms. These transmission channels are; interest rate channel and exchange rate channel. The working of the first channel is that the interest rate influences the level of expenditures, investment and subsequently domestic demand. The change in official interest rate effects the market rates of interest both short term as well as long term interest rates. This change in market rates of interest is transmitted to the bank lending rates and saving rates. The change in saving rate effects the spending behaviour of individuals (consumption) whereas the change in bank lending rate effects the investment behaviour of firms (investment). The change in aggregate consumption and investment has direct link to the gross domestic product (GDP).

scholarly journals The Case for Open-Market Purchases in a Liquidity Trap

2005 ◽  
Vol 95 (1) ◽  
pp. 110-137 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alan J Auerbach ◽  
Maurice Obstfeld
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Open Market ◽  
Macroeconomic Stabilization ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Liquidity Trap ◽  
Welfare Impact ◽  
Dynamic General Equilibrium Model ◽  
Policy Tool ◽  
Economic Experience

Prevalent thinking about liquidity traps suggests that the perfect substitutability of money and bonds at a zero short-term nominal interest rate renders open-market operations ineffective for achieving macroeconomic stabilization goals. We show that even were this the case, there remains a powerful argument for large-scale open market operations as a fiscal policy tool. As we also demonstrate, however, this same reasoning implies that open-market operations will be beneficial for stabilization as well, even when the economy is expected to remain mired in a liquidity trap for some time. Thus, the microeconomic fiscal benefits of open-market operations in a liquidity trap go hand in hand with standard macroeconomic objectives. Motivated by Japan’s recent economic experience, we use a dynamic general-equilibrium model to assess the welfare impact of open-market operations for an economy in Japan’s predicament. We argue Japan can achieve a substantial welfare improvement through large open-market purchases of domestic government debt.

scholarly journals Negative Interest Rate Risk. Atavism or Normalization of Central Banks’ Monetary Policy

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (342) ◽  
pp. 89-116
Author(s):  
Irena Pyka ◽  
Aleksandra Nocoń
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Interest Rate Risk ◽  
Interest Rate Policy ◽  
Rate Policy ◽  
Negative Interest Rate Policy

In the face of the global financial crisis, central banks have used unconventional monetary policy instruments. Firstly, they implemented the interest rate policy, lowering base interest rates to a very low (almost zero) level. However, in the following years they did not undertake normalizing activities. The macroeconomic environment required further initiatives. For the first time in history, central banks have adopted Negative Interest Rate Policy (NIRP). The main aim of the study is to explore the risk accompanying the negative interest rate policy, aiming at identifying channels and consequences of its impact on the economy. The study verifies the research hypothesis stating that the risk of negative interest rates, so far unrecognized in Theory of Interest Rate, is a consequence of low effectiveness of monetary policy normalization and may adopt systemic nature, by influencing – through different channels – the financial stability and growth dynamics of the modern world economy.

scholarly journals Over- and Underbidding in Central Bank Open Market Operations Conducted as Fixed Rate Tender

2005 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 95-130 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ulrich Bindseil
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
General Question ◽  
Open Market ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Fixed Rate ◽  
Proposed Model

Abstract Open market operations play a key role in allocating central bank funds to the banking system and thereby in steering short-term interest rates in line with the stance of monetary policy. Many central banks apply so-called ‘fixed rate tender’ auctions in their open market operations. This paper presents, on the basis of a survey of central bank experience, a model of bidding in such tenders. In their conduct of fixed rate tenders, many central banks faced specifically an ‘under-’ and an ‘overbidding’ problem. These phenomena are revisited in the light of the proposed model, and the more general question of the optimal tender procedure and allotment policy of central banks is addressed.

scholarly journals ANALYSIS OF CREDIT INSTRUMENTS FOR INCREASING FINANCIAL AND INVESTMENT POTENTIAL OF THE REGION

2020 ◽  
Vol 70 (4/2020) ◽  
pp. 161-173
Author(s):  
R. V. Badylevich ◽  
◽  
E. A. Verbinenko ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Policy Instruments ◽  
The State ◽  
Russian Arctic ◽  
Open Market ◽  
Autonomous District ◽  
Murmansk Region ◽  
Nenets Autonomous

The article is devoted to analyzing credit instruments for increasing the financial and investment potential of the region. The place of credit instruments in the state monetary policy system is considered, and the influence of the monetary policy on regional economic processes is analyzed. Based on the analysis of the relevant research works, the thesis on different reactions of regions to significant decisions of monetary authorities while implementing the monetary policy is confirmed. Possibilities of differentiating application of the monetary policy instruments by territories in accordance with the development specifics of individual regions or their clusters are studied. It is concluded that some of the instruments (interest rates on operations of the Bank of Russia, mandatory reserve requirements, open market operations, refinancing of credit institutions) have a potential to adapt their use in the regional context. Separately, the article highlights and analyzes direct regional tools for enhancing credit activities, such as direct lending to priority areas and sectors of the economy by regional authorities, subsidizing credit rates for certain categories of borrowers, and creating regional credit organizations with governmenta participation. Based on the assessment of the principles of using the instruments to increase the financial and investment potential of the region, the article provides recommendations for choosing credit instruments for the regions of the Russian Arctic zone (Arkhangelsk region, Nenets Autonomous district, Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous district, Republic of Karelia, Komi Republic, Murmansk region, Krasnoyarsk territory, Republic of Sakha (Yakutia)). For this purpose, the features of building and functioning of the financial systems of the Russian Arctic regions, and the state and performance indicators of their banking sector were analyzed.

scholarly journals Excess Real Interest Rates and the Inflation Targeting Regime in Brazil: Monetary Policy Ineffectiveness and Rentiers’ Interests

2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (6) ◽  
pp. 84
Author(s):  
Fernando Ferrari Filho ◽  
Marcelo Milan
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Policy Instruments ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
International Standards ◽  
Real Interest Rates ◽  
The Interest Rate

Brazil has had, since the middle 1990s, one of the highest real interest rates in the world, yet not one of the lowest inflation rates. By the end of that decade, an inflation targeting regime (ITR) was introduced. Real interest rates have remained extremely high for international standards, while macroeconomic performance has been dismal on the same grounds. This article argues that these results can be explained by, among others reasons, pressures from the rentiers to frame monetary policy in a way to sustain very high interest earnings in a context where inflation is not very sensitive to monetary policy instruments. Under the ITR, the interest rate seems to have been kept above what would be required to maintain low inflation under normal conditions (even if one assumes a demand-pull inflation, which is not necessarily the case), with a potentially negative impact on growth and employment. This is interpreted as an indicator of monetary policy ineffectiveness. On the empirical ground, this article compares interest rate, inflation, unemployment, and real output growth for Brazil with both ITR and non-ITR countries selected by judgment sampling.

Central Bank Communication

2019 ◽  
pp. 230-262
Author(s):  
Jakob de Haan ◽  
Jan-Egbert Sturm
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The Public ◽  
Central Bank Communication ◽  
Forward Guidance ◽  
The World ◽  
Future Direction

Many central banks in the world nowadays regard their external communication as an important tool to achieve their goals. This chapter provides an overview of the different ways in which central banks inform the public about the future direction of monetary policy and how successful they have been in recent years. Forward guidance is either part of a monetary policy strategy in which an explicit inflation target is targeted or is part of a strategy that attempts to circumvent the effective lower bound regarding the nominal interest rate. In both cases, forward guidance attempts to influence longer-term interest rates and inflation expectations through the expected future short-term interest rates.

Negative interest rates as a monetary policy tool

2020 ◽  
Vol 26 (8) ◽  
pp. 1731-1746
Author(s):  
D.A. Artemenko ◽  
I.I. Bychkova
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Fund Raising ◽  
Situational Analysis ◽  
Policy Tool ◽  
Negative Interest Rates

Subject. We consider the application of negative interest rates by central banks of various countries, as a monetary policy tool. Objectives. We focus on reviewing the historical retrospect, potential risks, as well as positive and negative aspects of using negative interest rate instruments by developed countries. Methods. The study rests on the logical, systems, functional, and situational analysis, methods of grouping, and the monographic survey. Results. The use of negative interest rates as a monetary policy tool by financial regulators in various countries is a least-evil solution, which is aimed at improving the economy after the global economic crisis of 2008–2010. At present, positive and negative factors of the tools' impact on the financial sphere have been identified. In particular, the advantage is a balance between inflation and deflation, as the latter leads to a reduction in aggregate demand, an increase in unemployment, a fall in asset prices, and a slowdown in economic growth. The banking sector bears the risks of negative margin from operations involving fund-raising. The use of negative interest rates is possible, if other measures aimed at boosting economic growth are applied simultaneously. Conclusions. The findings can be used to investigate the negative interest rate instrument and evaluate its effectiveness. They can be helpful for financial market specialists.

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