scholarly journals The Legitimacy, Accountability, and Ownership of an Impact-Based Forecasting Model in Disaster Governance

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 445-455 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sterre Bierens ◽  
Kees Boersma ◽  
Marc J. C. Van den Homberg
Keyword(s):  
Disaster Response ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Data Driven ◽  
Red Cross ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Mutual Understanding ◽  
Warning Systems ◽  
New Paradigm ◽  
Implementation Challenges

The global shift within disaster governance from disaster response to preparedness and risk reduction includes the emergency of novel Early Warning Systems such as impact based forecasting and forecast-based financing. In this new paradigm, funds usually reserved for response can be released before a disaster happens when an impact-based forecast—i.e., the expected humanitarian impact as a result of the forecasted weather—reaches a predefined danger level. The development of these impact-based forecasting models are promising, but they also come with significant implementation challenges. This article presents the data-driven impact-based forecasting model as developed by 510, an initiative of the Netherlands Red Cross. It elaborates on how questions on legitimacy, accountability and ownership influenced the implementation of the model within the Philippines with the Philippine Red Cross and the local government as the main stakeholders. The findings imply that the exchange of knowledge between the designer and manufacturer of impact-based models and the end users of those models fall short if novel Early Warnign Systems are seen as just a matter of technology transfer. Instead the development and implementation of impact based models should be based on mutual understanding of the users’ needs and the developers of such models.

Designing a multi-objective framework for forecast-based action of extreme rains in Peru

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonathan Lala ◽  
Juan Bazo ◽  
Paul Block
Keyword(s):  
Disaster Preparedness ◽  
Disaster Response ◽  
Lead Time ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Red Cross ◽  
Warning Systems ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Early Action ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Technological Constraints

<p>The last few years have seen a major innovation within disaster management and financing through the emergence of standardized forecast-based action protocols. Given sufficient forecasting skill and lead time, financial resources can be shifted from disaster response to disaster preparedness, potentially saving both lives and property. Short-term (hours to days) early warning systems are common worldwide; however, longer-term (months to seasons) early actions are still relatively under-studied. Seeking to address both, the Peruvian Red Cross has developed an Early Action Protocol (EAP) for El Niño-related extreme precipitation and floods. The EAP has well-defined risk metrics, forecast triggers, and early actions ranging from 5 days to 3 months before a forecasted disaster. Changes in climate regimes, forecast technology, or institutional and financial constraints, however, may significantly alter expected impacts of these early actions. A robust sensitivity analysis of situational and technological constraints is thus conducted to identify benefits and tradeoffs of various actions given various future scenarios, ensuring an adaptive and effective protocol that can be used for a wide range of changing circumstances.</p>

Balancing permanent and forecast-based action to lessen wind-induced building damage in the Philippines.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Demi Vonk ◽  
Marc van den Homberg ◽  
Nanette Kingma ◽  
Dinand Alkema ◽  
Aklilu Teklesadik ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Disaster Response ◽  
Climate Adaptation ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Building Damage ◽  
Red Cross ◽  
Disaster Prevention ◽  
Anticipatory Action

<p>With a global paradigm shift from post-disaster response aid to anticipatory action, the question on how anticipatory action relates to long-term climate adaptation and often government-led actions towards permanent disaster prevention becomes more relevant. With rising disaster risk, a framework that decision-makers can use to select between preventive and preparedness risk reduction efforts would be most useful. A model originally developed to compare permanent interventions to forecast-based action for floods was applied to wind-induced building damage due to tropical cyclones, focusing on a case study from the Philippines. We made use of a typhoon forecasting model based on the ensemble forecast from EMCWF, and modeled the wind footprint to estimate the wind speed in the case study area. A threshold was defined, similar to how it is done in actual operations by the Philippine Red Cross. If the forecasted typhoon exceeds a pre-set threshold in terms of wind speed, action to strengthen light-weight wooden houses with a Shelter Strengthening Kit (SSK) is taken. SSKs temporarily make these houses more resistant to withstand extreme winds, thereby reducing the impacts. This short term action is compared to a scenario in which lightweight wooden houses are permanently upgraded. Results give actors in humanitarian response, anticipatory action as well as permanent disaster prevention insight into which variables affect this balance. and help policymakers to allocate their scarce budgets in a cost-effective way. The framework, although developed for the Philippines, can also be replicated in other cyclone-prone countries. </p>

scholarly journals Combining Data-Driven Methods with Finite Element Analysis for Flood Early Warning Systems

2015 ◽  
Vol 51 ◽  
pp. 2347-2356 ◽  
Author(s):  
A.L. Pyayt ◽  
D.V. Shevchenko ◽  
A.P. Kozionov ◽  
I.I. Mokhov ◽  
B. Lang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Finite Element Analysis ◽  
Finite Element ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Data Driven ◽  
Warning Systems ◽  
Element Analysis ◽  
Combining Data

Interview with Mr Ma Qiang

2015 ◽  
Vol 97 (897-898) ◽  
pp. 29-44
Keyword(s):  
Disaster Response ◽  
Vice President ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Red Cross ◽  
International Crises ◽  
Institutional Rules ◽  
Humanitarian Action ◽  
Executive Vice President ◽  
Operational Guidance

In this issue, the Review wanted to give a voice to different perspectives on the principles guiding humanitarian action. The Chinese Red Cross is an interesting example of a member of the International Red Cross and Red Crescent Movement operating according not only to the seven Fundamental Principles of the Movement, but also to three additional values (or “spirits”), namely humanity, fraternity and dedication. Whereas the Fundamental Principles serve as institutional rules and provide operational guidance, the three spirits serve as an ideology for members of the Chinese Red Cross. In addition, over the last few years, the Chinese Red Cross has become more and more involved in disaster response operations abroad (for instance, in the response to Typhoon Haiyan in the Philippines in 2013 and the earthquake in Nepal in 2015), as well as in China. It is expected that Chinese disaster response organizations will be increasingly involved in future international crises. The Review spoke to Mr Ma Qiang, former Executive Vice-President of the Shanghai branch of the Chinese Red Cross, the oldest Red Cross branch in China, to find out more about how he sees the evolution of the humanitarian sector and the challenges to principled humanitarian action in today's world.

The CARE Telematics Network for the Surveillance of Influenza in Europe

1995 ◽  
Vol 34 (05) ◽  
pp. 518-522 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Bensadon ◽  
A. Strauss ◽  
R. Snacken
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Warning Systems ◽  
Surveillance Networks ◽  
Spanish Flu ◽  
The 1950S ◽  
National Networks ◽  
First Time

Abstract:Since the 1950s, national networks for the surveillance of influenza have been progressively implemented in several countries. New epidemiological arguments have triggered changes in order to increase the sensitivity of existent early warning systems and to strengthen the communications between European networks. The WHO project CARE Telematics, which collects clinical and virological data of nine national networks and sends useful information to public health administrations, is presented. From the results of the 1993-94 season, the benefits of the system are discussed. Though other telematics networks in this field already exist, it is the first time that virological data, absolutely essential for characterizing the type of an outbreak, are timely available by other countries. This argument will be decisive in case of occurrence of a new strain of virus (shift), such as the Spanish flu in 1918. Priorities are now to include other existing European surveillance networks.

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