Part III Conceptual Pillars, Ch.18 Precaution

This chapter describes the concept of precaution in international environmental law, which concerns anticipatory action in response to scientifically uncertain threats of environmental harm. Its most frequently referenced formulation can be found in Principle 15 of the Rio Declaration on Environment and Development. The Rio Declaration's endorsement of precaution in Principle 15 introduced to international environmental law a new discourse over the appropriate evidentiary foundations of global environmental regulation. The chapter then focuses on four key questions (and attendant debates) regarding precaution that have been critical in understanding its role in international environmental law. These questions concern the meaning of precaution as a conceptual pillar of international environmental law; the legal status of precaution as a principle of international environmental law; the formulation and understanding of precaution evident from international environmental treaties and case law; and the consequences of applying precaution in decision-making concerning threats of environmental damage.

Analysis of the Safety Resilience Implementation in the Maritime Industry at Public and Private Companies (A Case Study in Indonesia)

(1) Background: The resilience concept shows performance improvement in four potential aspects consisting of the ability to respond, provide anticipatory action, control things that occur internally and externally, as well as the learning process of what is going right and what is going wrong. This study aims to analyze the safety resilience implementation in the Indonesian maritime sector. (2) Method: This is a descriptive study using semi-quantitative methods, using interview guides based on the Resilience Assessment Grid (RAG). The sampling technique is purposive sampling. (3) Results: The level of implementation of safety resilience at the public company was 75.1%, while the private company was 70.2%. The score for each safety resilience element in the public and private companies are as follows: the ability to respond (80%), learning ability (74.62%), monitoring ability (70.77%), and the ability to anticipate (66.92%). (4) Conclusion: The safety resilience implementation in Indonesian sea transportation shipping has not been optimal in implementing the safety resilience concept. The focus of implementing safety is still on preventing and controlling accidents. The other orientation of ability improvement in the safety resilience concept has not been implemented.

THE PARTICIPATION OF THE BREEDERS : REGIONAL REGULATION OF DUMAI CITY CONCERNING LIVESTOCK AND PETS

<em>This article aims to look at community participation in implementing Dumai City Act Number 10 of 2008 concerning livestock and pets, namely what impacts arise and what sanctions will be received if they do not comply and what are the anticipatory actions of the breeders so that they will not suffer losses in the future. This study is a qualitative research categorized as sociological juridical research. The data analysis was conducted using descriptive analysis. The results showed that the breeders (livestock farmers)’ lack of understanding on the regulations that had been set was one of the obstacles arising in the implementation of the law. It is hoped that the related parties involved in this Regional Regulation understand the legal sanctions and the impacts that arise from any disobedience acts. From various community backgrounds and in terms of educational factors, cultural factors, geographical aspects, and facility factors, it appears that the government's role in creating all aspects involved in jointly implementing this regional regulation is requiredBesides, breeders must implement these regional regulations as a form of anticipatory action; thus, such livestock and pet activities will not harm themselves and their environment.</em>

Balancing permanent and forecast-based action to lessen wind-induced building damage in the Philippines.

&lt;p&gt;With a global paradigm shift from post-disaster response aid to anticipatory action, the question on how anticipatory action relates to long-term climate adaptation and often government-led actions towards permanent disaster prevention becomes more relevant. With rising disaster risk, a framework that decision-makers can use to select between preventive and preparedness risk reduction efforts would be most useful. A model originally developed to compare permanent interventions to forecast-based action for floods was applied to wind-induced building damage due to tropical cyclones, focusing on a case study from the Philippines. We made use of a typhoon forecasting model based on the ensemble forecast from EMCWF, and modeled the wind footprint to estimate the wind speed in the case study area. A threshold was defined, similar to how it is done in actual operations by the Philippine Red Cross. If the forecasted typhoon exceeds a pre-set threshold in terms of wind speed, action to strengthen light-weight wooden houses with a Shelter Strengthening Kit (SSK) is taken. SSKs temporarily make these houses more resistant to withstand extreme winds, thereby reducing the impacts. This short term action is compared to a scenario in which lightweight wooden houses are permanently upgraded. Results give actors in humanitarian response, anticipatory action as well as permanent disaster prevention insight into which variables affect this balance. and help policymakers to allocate their scarce budgets in a cost-effective way. The framework, although developed for the Philippines, can also be replicated in other cyclone-prone countries.&amp;#160;&lt;/p&gt;

Analysing the cost-effectiveness of early action for food security through forecasting shortages in maize calories; a case study for Ethiopia

&lt;p&gt;The Ethiopian agricultural system is predominantly formed by smallholder and rainfed farmers. Their local food systems are greatly reliant on seasonal climate variability. Often, droughts and food insecurity are interlinked and can negatively impact local communities. In addition to climate variability, a number of socio-economic factors such as multiple harvest failures, distance to markets and pre-existing inequalities are well known to impact people&amp;#8217;s access to safe, sufficient and affordable food. Anticipatory action to avoid a situation of food security crisis often requires the understanding of how many people can be potentially affected by a shock and how much financing should be invested.&amp;#160;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;This study aims to forecast shortages in maize calories, which is defined as the percentage of the population for which not sufficient maize calories are available. Forecast models were developed for agricultural and agro-pastoral livelihood zones in Ethiopia in connection to the unimodal and bimodal rain seasons by using the Fast-and-Frugal Trees Algorithm. To forecast shortage events, five variables were used ranging from socio-economic to physical drivers: 1) soil moisture (Tropical Applications of Meteorology using Satellite data and ground-based observations (TAMSAT)), 2) maize production from the previous season, 3) the Gini index, 4) the main livelihood mode and 5) the travel time to the closest market. The lead time of the model is increased using TAMSAT forecast data to create a wider window for action before harvesting.&amp;#160;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The skill of the model with increased lead-time in relation to the cost of the humanitarian intervention was analysed to examine the cost-effectiveness of forecast-based action. Therefore, the cost of acting early (through a scheme of cash transfer) has been compared to ex-post interventions. To assess the cost-effectiveness of the cash transfer, the prices of a basket of goods before and after harvesting are included in the model with the assumption that prices of staple crops increase when there is scarcity (food insecurity). With these results, the study will explore the practicality of implementing the anticipatory action by looking at the implications of model uncertainty (False Alarms, &amp;#8216;acting in vain&amp;#8217;). Likewise, the possible opportunities and challenges in regards to operationalizing the model will be deliberated. Accordingly, this study hopes to contribute to the use of early warning early action systems by humanitarian agencies in reducing the impacts of natural hazards.&amp;#160;&lt;/p&gt;

Efficacy of the use of unaffected hand containment in unimanual intensive therapy to increase visuomotor coordination in children with hemiplegia: a randomized controlled pilot study

Background: The capacity of children with hemiplegia to be engaged in anticipatory action planning is affected. There is no balance among spatial, proprioceptive and visual information, thus altering the affected upper limb visuomotor coordination. The objective of the present study was to assess the improvement in visuomotor coordination after the application of a unimanual intensive therapy program, with the use of unaffected hand containment compared with not using unaffected hand containment. Methods: A simple blind randomized clinical trial was realized. A total of 16 subjects with congenital infantile hemiplegia participated in the study with an age mean of 5.54 years old (SD:1.55). Two intensive protocols for 5 weeks of modified constraint-induced movement therapy (mCIMT) or unimanual therapy without containment (UTWC) were executed 5 days per week (2 h/day). Affected upper limb visuomotor coordination (reaction time, task total time, active range, dynamic grasp) was measured before–after intensive therapy using a specific circuit with different slopes (10°/15°). Results: Statistically significant inter-group differences were found after the intervention, with clinically relevant results for the mCIMT group not seen in UTWC, in the following variables: reaction time 10°slope ( p = 0.003, d = 2.44), reaction time 15°slope ( p = 0.002, d = 2.15) as well as for the task total time 10°slope ( p = 0.002, d = 2.25), active reach 10°slope ( p = 0.002, d = 2.7), active reach 15°slope ( p = 0.003, d = 2.29) and dynamic grasp 10°/15°slopes ( p = <0.001, d = 2.69). There were not statistically significant inter-group differences in the total task time with 15°slope ( p = 0.074, d = 1.27). Conclusions: The use of unaffected hand containment in mCIMT would allow improvements in the affected upper limb’s visuomotor coordination. Thus, it would favor clinical practice to make decisions on therapeutic approaches to increase the affected upper limb functionality and action planning in children diagnosed with infantile hemiplegia (4–8 years old).