scholarly journals Effect of macroeconomic variables on systemic risk: Evidence from Vietnamese economy

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 217-228
Author(s):  
Thi Xuan Huong Tram ◽  
Nguyen Thi Thanh Hoai
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Systemic Risk ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moments ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares

This paper aims to find out the relationship between systemic risk in Vietnam and the effects of macroeconomic factors, including exchange rate, interest rates, and economic growth. We collect data from the Vietnamese stock market, specifically 29 listed financial firms (banks, insurance companies, and securities firms) for the period 2010-2018. The analysis is performed in two steps including systematic risk measurement in Vietnam based on the Systemic Expected Shortfall (SES) method and providing evidence from analysis related to the risk determinants assessment. Besides ordinary least squares (OLS) methods, we make use of fixed-effects (FEM) estimations, random-effects (REM) estimations, and system generalized method of moments (SGMM). The empirical evidence in this paper indicates that economic growth has a negative relationship on systemic risk in Vietnam while the exchange rate has a positive impact on systemic risk, and the interest rate has a negative relationship on systemic risk in Vietnam. Future studies can address the effects of interest rate on systemic risk during this period.

Relationship between Budget Deficit and Economic Growth: Evidence from Ethiopia

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 10-15
Author(s):  
Desalegn Emana
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Nominal Exchange Rate ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run

This study examined the relationship between budget deficit and economic growth in Ethiopia using time series data for the period 1991 to 2019 by applying the ARDL bounds testing approach. The empirical results indicate that budget deficit and economic growth in Ethiopia have a negative relationship in the long run, and have a weak positive association in the short run. In line with this, in the long run, a one percent increase in the budget deficit causes a 1.43 percent decline in the economic growth of the country. This result is consistent with the neoclassical view which says budget deficits are bad for economic growth during stimulating periods. Moreover, in the long run, the variables trade openness and inflation have a positive impact on Ethiopian economic growth, and on the other hand, the economic growth of Ethiopia is negatively affected by the nominal exchange rate in the long run. Apart from this, in the long run, gross capital formation and lending interest rates have no significant impact on the economic growth of the country. Therefore, the study recommends the government should manage its expenditure and mobilize the resources to generate more revenue to address the negative impact of the budget deficit on economic growth.

scholarly journals Social and Economic Drivers of Stock Market Performance in Nigeria

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 137-143
Author(s):  
Ismaila Akanni Yusuf ◽  
Mohammed Bashir Salaudeen ◽  
Hope Agbonrofo
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Market Performance ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Stock Performance ◽  
Stock Market Performance

The study examines the effect of the social and economic indicators on the stock market performance in Nigeria between 1981 and 2019. The study employs secondary data from the World Bank and Central Bank of Nigeria using the ordinary least squares as the technique of estimation. Findings show that regarding the economic drivers, interest rate, exchange rate, and inflation rate negatively impact the stock market while only income exerts a positive impact. However, both income and interest rate are significant economic drivers of stock performance. Regarding social drivers, life expectancy, poverty, and population exert a positive impact on stock performance. Similarly, both life expectancy and population are significant social drivers of stock market performance in Nigeria. The study recommends that monetary authorities should be cautious in avoiding discretionary policies that might hike the exchange rate; otherwise, the flow of funds to the stock market will be derailed. Also, the fiscal authority should invest massively in safety nets programmes to enhance the capacity of the growing population and reduce poverty.

Shadow Economy, Corruption, and Economic Growth: An Empirical Analysis

2019 ◽  
Vol 47 (3) ◽  
pp. 276-294 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nedra Baklouti ◽  
Younes Boujelbene
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Least Squares ◽  
Public Administration ◽  
Method Of Moments ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Shadow Economy ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moments ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Considerable Debate

There is considerable debate over the effects of both corruption and shadow economy on growth, but few studies have considered how the interaction between them might affect economic growth. We study how corruption levels in public administration affect economic growth and how this effect depends on the shadow economy. Using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), fixed effects, and system generalized method of moments (GMM) on a dataset of 34 OECD countries over the period 1995-2014. The estimation results indicate that increased corruption and a larger shadow economy lead to decrease in economic growth. Results additionally indicate that the shadow economy magnifies the effect of corruption on economic growth. These results imply significant complementarities between corruption and the shadow economy, suggesting that the reduction of corruption will lead to a fall in the size of the shadow economy and will also reduce the negative effects of corruption on economic growth through the underground economy.

scholarly journals The Determinants of Economic Growth in CEMAC through a Panel Data Approach

2016 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 483
Author(s):  
Nzingoula Gildas Crepin
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Good Governance ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moments ◽  
Central Africa ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Fixed Effects Model ◽  
Main Determinants ◽  
Determinants Of Economic Growth

<div><p><em>This article highlights through a panel data approach the determinants of economic growth; observed over the last decade in the Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa (CEMAC) and necessary to reach emerging economies stage. To do this, we essentially used Stata 12 software to come up with the results, and a panel data sample comprising six CEMAC member states, namely Congo, Cameroon, Gabon, Equatorial Guinea, Central African Republic and Chad, for the period ranging from 2000 to 2013. The results obtained after estimating ordinary least squares, fixed effects model, random effects model, generalized method of moments (GMM) and specification tests show that the best model to estimate these types of data is the fixed effects model. Besides, the main determinants of economic growth in CEMAC over that period are Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and loans lending to the economy (LOAN). After estimation, FDI is found positive and significant on economic growth, while LOAN is significant and found negative maybe due to lack of good governance.</em></p></div>

scholarly journals Impact of Macro-Economic Variable on Pakistan Stock Exchange KSE-100 Index

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 17-23
Author(s):  
Muhammad Faisal Hassan ◽  
Hashim Bin Jusoh ◽  
Sajjad Khan ◽  
Fahad Ali Khan ◽  
Muhammad Naseem ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Adf Test

The researcher investigates the Impact of inflation, exchange rate and interest rate on Pakistan stock Exchange performance KSE-100 index by using monthly time series data which covers the period of 2013 to 2020. The econometrics techniques which are employed includes ADF test, Ordinary Least squares regression Model, testing for Multi-collinearity, Residual analysis serial correlation, testing for co-integration, Error correction model (ECM), variance decomposition (VAR) and Pair wise granger causality test. The results indicate that there is positive impact of exchange rate on PSX 100 index and the impact of inflation and interest rate is fond negative but inflation have insignificant relationship with PSX 100 index and the other two relationships are found significant. From the ECM result it is found that in short run 20% of the variation in dependent variable is due to inflation, exchange rate and interest rate and 80% variation is unexplained in short run. Form the results of VAR test it is concluded that exchange rate 1.67, inflation 14.25%, and interest rate 3.90% variation cause in PSX 100 index performance due to these three independent variables.

scholarly journals THE INFLUENCE OF GDP, INTEREST RATE, WAGE, INFLATION AND EXCHANGE RATE ON RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY PRICE IN INDONESIA

2019 ◽  
Vol 17 (9) ◽  
Author(s):  
Badrud Duja ◽  
Heri Supriyanto
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Residential Property ◽  
Property Prices ◽  
The Us ◽  
Property Price ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
The Government

Over the past years, Indonesia’s economic growth has been recorded among the top developing countries. The economic growth is believed to contribute to the increase on residential property prices. The main objective of this study is to analyse the influence of determinants of residential property prices in Indonesia by examining the dynamic relationships of residential property prices reflected through the Residential Property Price Index (RPPI) with Gross Domestic Product (GDP), investment interest rates, wages, inflation and the exchange rate against the US dollar using secondary data over a period of thirteen-years between 2002Q1 and 2014Q4. By applying the Engle-Granger co-integration testand the error correction model, this research aims to see the relationship between the variables both in the short- and long-term. The results of the study indicated that macroeconomic factors that were significantly related to Indonesian residential property prices were GDP, wages, inflation, and exchange rates against the US dollar, while the investment interest rate was not included in these factors. Furthermore, based on the results of the regression analysis on research data, government policy in setting minimum wage standards has the greatest impact on residential property prices in the property sector in Indonesia. Thus, the results of this research are expected to provide the government with better viewpoints that will assist them in enacting better policies in the residential property sector.

scholarly journals Does High Yield Spread Dampen Economic Growth?

2014 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 01-09
Author(s):  
Yutaka Kurihara
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Empirical Relationship ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
The United States ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Yield Spread ◽  
Government Bond ◽  
Bond Yield

This article focuses on the empirical relationship between the United States’ and Japan’s yield spread of interest rates and economic growth in Japan. The yield spread is defined in this article as the difference between the Japanese government bond yield minus the US government bond yield. Some studies have tackled this issue and found a negative relationship between the yield spread and economic growth; however, recent studies have shown no or a weak relationship. This problem has not yet reached consensus in spite of its importance. As the Japanese interest rate has been quite low since the adoption of the zero interest rate policy at the end of 1990s, the situation may change the results. The empirical results show that reliability of yield spread as a leading indicator of output growth exists in Japan; however, term structure of interest rate is not related to output growth.

scholarly journals Global FDI Inflow and Its Implication across Economic Income Groups

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 291
Author(s):  
Udi Joshua ◽  
Mathew Ekundayo Rotimi ◽  
Samuel Asumadu Sarkodie
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moments ◽  
Income Group ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Business Environment ◽  
Positive Influence ◽  
Panel Estimation ◽  
The Impact

Foreign direct investment (FDI) as a driver of growth is important in today’s globalized economy. It is extremely difficult for economies to grow sustainably without economic interactions outside their borders. However, there has been a debate on the impact of FDI inflow on economic expansion. Hence, this study investigated the influence of FDI on economic growth for a selection of 200 economies around the world for the period 1990–2018. We subdivided the sample into World Bank income group clusters to aid comparison across income blocs. The study employed panel estimation techniques including pooled ordinary least squares (POLS), dynamic panel estimation with fixed-effects and random-effects and generalized method of moments (GMM). The study found that FDI, debt stock and official development assistance are promoters of growth in the selected countries—although debt stock weakly impacts economic growth. In contrast, trade openness and exchange rates had a mixed (negative and positive) influence on economic growth. The study suggests that the creation of a conducive business environment and economic policies will attract FDI inflows. Additionally, borrowing from external sources could be minimized despite its perceived positive influence on growth to achieve financial independence.

scholarly journals Determinants of Profitability in the Banking Sector: An Analysis of Post-Soviet Countries

Economies ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 41 ◽  
Author(s):  
Serhat Yüksel ◽  
Shahriyar Mukhtarov ◽  
Elvin Mammadov ◽  
Mustafa Özsarı
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Financial Performance ◽  
Credit Card ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moments ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Bank Profitability ◽  
Interest Income

The purpose of this paper is to identify the determinants of bank profitability in 13 post-Soviet countries. Within this scope, annual data between 1996 and 2016 is analyzed by using fixed effects panel regression and the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM). It is concluded that loan amount, non-interest income and economic growth are significant indicators of profitability. Moreover, the 2008 global mortgage crisis has a negative influence on bank profitability in post-Soviet countries. According to the estimation results, there is a positive relationship between non-interest income and economic growth with profitability. This result shows that when non-interest income of the banks increases, such as credit card fees and commission, it affects the financial performance of the banks, positively, and contributes to bank profitability. Another result of this study is that economic growth positively influences bank profitability. This result allows us to conclude that higher GDP comes with higher bank profitability for post-Soviet countries. Lastly, there is a negative relationship between loan-to-GDP ratio and profitability of the banks in post-Soviet countries. This means that when the ratio of total loans to GDP increases, it affects financial performance of the banks in a negative way. While considering this result, it is recommended that banks in post-Soviet countries should focus on ways to increase their non-interest income. Additionally, it is also significant for these banks to be careful and risk averse when lending to their customers.

scholarly journals The impact of taxes effects on the economic growth of developing countries in ASIA

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Văn Thuận Nguyễn ◽  
Xuân Hằng Trần ◽  
Minh Hằng Nguyễn ◽  
Thị Kim Chi Ng
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Method Of Moments ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moments ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Estimation Methods ◽  
Policy Suggestions ◽  
The Impact

The objective of the study is to examine the impact of taxes on economic growth in developing countries in Asia during 18-year period (2000-2017). Using the estimation methods of OLS, FEM, REM, GLS and two-step system generalized method of moments (S-GMM) for panel data. Empirical results show that taxation has a positive impact on economic growth at level of 1%, while the most studies consider this to be a negative relationship. Besides, factors such as government spending, trade openness, inflation also have a significant impact on economic growth. On that basis, the study provides some policy suggestions for tax policies in these countries.

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