A Stochastic Earthquake Ground‐Motion Prediction Model for the United Kingdom

2013 ◽  
Vol 103 (1) ◽  
pp. 57-77 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andreas Rietbrock ◽  
Fleur Strasser ◽  
Benjamin Edwards
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Earthquake Ground Motion ◽  
Motion Prediction ◽  
Ground Motion Prediction ◽  
The United Kingdom

A Selection of GMPEs for the United Kingdom Based on Instrumental and Macroseismic Datasets

2019 ◽  
Vol 109 (4) ◽  
pp. 1378-1400 ◽  
Author(s):  
Manuela Villani ◽  
Barbara Polidoro ◽  
Rory McCully ◽  
Thomas Ader ◽  
Ben Edwards ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Statistical Tests ◽  
Stochastic Simulations ◽  
Motion Prediction ◽  
Ground Motion Prediction ◽  
Ground Acceleration ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Moderate Seismicity ◽  
Selection Of

Abstract In countries with low‐to‐moderate seismicity, the selection of appropriate ground‐motion prediction equations (GMPEs) to be used in a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is a challenging step. Empirical observations of ground motion are limited, and GMPEs, when available, are generally based on stochastic simulations or adjusted empirical GMPEs from elsewhere. This article investigates the suitability of recent GMPEs to the United Kingdom. To this end, the spectral accelerations obtained from available instrumental ground‐motion data in the United Kingdom with magnitude lower than 4.5 are compared with the GMPEs’ predictions through the analysis of residuals and the application of statistical tests. To compensate for the scarcity of data for the magnitude range of interest in the PSHA, a macroseismic dataset is also considered. Macroseismic intensities are converted to peak ground acceleration (PGA) and statistically compared with the PGA predicted by the GMPEs. The GMPEs are then compared in terms of median ground‐motion prediction through Sammon’s maps to evaluate their similarities. The analyses from both datasets led to six suitable GMPEs, of which three are from the Next Generation Attenuation‐West2 project, one is European, one is based mainly on a Japanese dataset, and one is a stochastic GMPE developed specifically for the United Kingdom.

Ground Motion Prediction Model for the Peak Inelastic Displacement of Single-Degree-of-Freedom Bilinear Systems

2018 ◽  
Vol 34 (3) ◽  
pp. 1177-1199 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pablo Heresi ◽  
Héctor Dávalos ◽  
Eduardo Miranda
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Model ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Degree Of Freedom ◽  
Motion Prediction ◽  
Ground Motion Prediction ◽  
Vibration Period ◽  
Single Degree Of Freedom ◽  
Inelastic Displacement ◽  
Single Degree ◽  
Proposed Model

This paper presents a ground motion prediction model (GMPM) for estimating medians and standard deviations of the random horizontal component of the peak inelastic displacement of 5% damped single-degree-of-freedom (SDOF) systems, with bilinear hysteretic behavior and 3% postelastic stiffness ratio, directly as a function of the earthquake magnitude and the distance to the source. The equations were developed using a mixed effects model, with 1,662 recorded ground motions from 63 seismic events. In the proposed model, the median is computed as a function of the vibration period and the normalized strength of the system, as well as the event magnitude and the Joyner-Boore distance to the source. The standard deviation of the model is computed as a function of the vibration period and the normalized strength of the system. The proposed model has the advantage of not requiring an auxiliary elastic GMPM to predict the median and dispersion of peak inelastic displacement.

A Ground-Motion Prediction Model for Shallow Crustal Earthquakes in Greece

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
David M. Boore ◽  
Jonathan P. Stewart ◽  
Andreas A. Skarlatoudis ◽  
Emel Seyhan ◽  
Basil Margaris ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Model ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Site Response ◽  
Epistemic Uncertainty ◽  
Peak Ground Velocity ◽  
Motion Prediction ◽  
Ground Motion Prediction ◽  
Ground Acceleration ◽  
Magnitude Scaling ◽  
Nonlinear Site Response

ABSTRACT Using a recently completed database of uniformly processed strong-motion data recorded in Greece, we derive a ground-motion prediction model (GMPM) for horizontal-component peak ground velocity, peak ground acceleration, and 5% damped pseudoacceleration response spectra, at 105 periods ranging from 0.01 to 10 s. The equations were developed by modifying a global GMPM, to account for more rapid attenuation and weaker magnitude scaling in the Greek ground motions than in the global GMPM. Our GMPM is calibrated using the Greek data for distances up to 300 km, magnitudes from 4.0 to 7.0, and time-averaged 30 m shear-wave velocities from 150 to 1200  m/s. The GMPM has important attributes for hazard applications including magnitude scaling that extends the range of applicability to M 8.0 and nonlinear site response. These features are possible because they are well constrained by data in the global GMPM from which our model is derived. An interesting feature of the Greek data, also observed previously in studies of mid-magnitude events (6.1–6.5) in Italy, is that they are substantially overpredicted by the global GMPM, which may be a repeatable regional feature, but may also be influenced by soil–structure interaction. This bias is an important source of epistemic uncertainty that should be considered in hazard analysis.

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