Physics-Based Simulation of Spatiotemporal Patterns of Earthquakes in the Corinth Gulf, Greece, Fault System

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rodolfo Console ◽  
Roberto Carluccio ◽  
Maura Murru ◽  
Eleftheria Papadimitriou ◽  
Vassilis Karakostas
Keyword(s):  
Stress Transfer ◽  
Spatial Relation ◽  
Fault System ◽  
Recurrence Time ◽  
Earthquake Catalog ◽  
Earthquake Simulation ◽  
Strong Earthquakes ◽  
Corinth Gulf ◽  
Regional Seismicity ◽  
Physics Based Simulation

ABSTRACT A physics-based earthquake simulation algorithm for modeling the long-term spatiotemporal process of strong (M ≥ 6.0) earthquakes in Corinth Gulf area, Greece, is employed and its performance is explored. The underlying physical model includes the rate- and state-dependent frictional formulation, along with the slow tectonic loading and coseismic static stress transfer. The study area constitutes a rapidly extending rift about 100 km long, where the deformation is taken up by eight major fault segments aligned along its southern coastline, and which is associated with several strong (M ≥ 6.0) earthquakes in the last three centuries, since when the historical earthquake catalog is complete. The recurrence time of these earthquakes and their spatial relation are studied, and the simulator results reveal spatiotemporal properties of the regional seismicity such as pseudoperiodicity as well as multisegment ruptures of strong earthquakes. As the simulator algorithm allows the display of the stress pattern on all the single elements of the fault, we are focusing on the time evolution of the stress level before, during, and after these earthquakes occur. In this respect, the spatiotemporal variation of the stress and its heterogeneity appear to be correlated with the process of preparation of strong earthquakes in a quantitative way.

scholarly journals Renewal models and coseismic stress transfer in the Corinth Gulf, Greece, fault system

2013 ◽  
Vol 118 (7) ◽  
pp. 3655-3673 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rodolfo Console ◽  
Giuseppe Falcone ◽  
Vassilis Karakostas ◽  
Maura Murru ◽  
Eleftheria Papadimitriou ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Stress Transfer ◽  
Fault System ◽  
Corinth Gulf ◽  
Renewal Models

scholarly journals Strong Earthquakes Recurrence Times of the Southern Thessaly, Greece, Fault System: Insights from a Physics-Based Simulator Application

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christos Kourouklas ◽  
Rodolfo Console ◽  
Eleftheria Papadimitriou ◽  
Maura Murru ◽  
Vassilios Karakostas
Keyword(s):  
Detailed Examination ◽  
Passage Time ◽  
Fault System ◽  
Recurrence Time ◽  
Time Data ◽  
Strong Earthquakes ◽  
Earthquake Catalogs ◽  
Long Duration ◽  
Major Fault ◽  
Recurrence Behavior

The recurrence time, Tr, of strong earthquakes above a predefined magnitude threshold on specific faults or fault segments is an important parameter, that could be used as an input in the development of long-term fault-based Earthquake Rupture Forecasts (ERF). The amount of observational recurrence time data per segment is often limited, due to the long duration of the stress rebuilt and the shortage of earthquake catalogs. As a consequence, the application of robust statistical models is difficult to implement with a precise conclusion, concerning Tr and its variability. Physics-based earthquake simulators are a powerful tool to overcome these limitations, and could provide much longer earthquake records than the historical and instrumental earthquake catalogs. A physics-based simulator, which embodies known physical processes, is applied in the Southern Thessaly Fault Zone (Greece), aiming to provide insights about the recurrence behavior of earthquakes with Mw ≥ 6.0 in the six major fault segments in the study area. The build of the input fault model is made by compiling the geometrical and kinematic parameters of the fault network from the available seismotectonic studies. The simulation is implemented through the application of the algorithm multiple times, with a series of different input free parameters, in order to conclude in the simulated catalog which showed the best performance in respect to the observational data. The detailed examination of the 254 Mw ≥ 6.0 earthquakes reported in the simulated catalog reveals that both single and multiple segmented ruptures can be realized in the study area. Results of statistical analysis of the interevent times of the Mw ≥ 6.0 earthquakes per segment evidence quasi-periodic recurrence behavior and better performance of the Brownian Passage Time (BPT) renewal model in comparison to the Poissonian behavior.

scholarly journals Physics-based simulation of spatiotemporal patterns of earthquakes in the Corinth Gulf fault system

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rodolfo Console ◽  
Roberto Carluccio ◽  
Maura Murru ◽  
Eleftheria E. Papadimitriou ◽  
Vassilis G. Karakostas
Keyword(s):  
Spatiotemporal Patterns ◽  
Fault System ◽  
Corinth Gulf ◽  
Physics Based Simulation

scholarly journals SIMULATIONS OF SEISMIC ACTIVITY IN THE CORINTH GULF, GREECE, FAULT SYSTEM

2017 ◽  
Vol 50 (3) ◽  
pp. 1319
Author(s):  
R. Console ◽  
R. Carluccio ◽  
E. Papadimitriou ◽  
V. Karakostas
Keyword(s):  
Slip Rate ◽  
Fault System ◽  
Simulation Algorithm ◽  
Small Magnitude ◽  
Strong Earthquakes ◽  
Corinth Gulf ◽  
Magnitude Distribution ◽  
Earthquake Sources ◽  
Time Space ◽  
Physical Elements

The characteristic earthquake hypothesis is not strongly supported by observational data because of the relatively short duration of historical and even paleoseismological records. For instance, for the Corinth Gulf Fault System (CGFS), historical information on strong earthquakes exist for at least two thousand years, but they can be considered complete for M > 6.0 only for the latest 300 years, and therefore only few characteristic earthquakes are reported for individual fault segments. The use of a physics-based earthquake simulator has allowed the production of catalogues lasting 100,000 years and containing more than 500,000 events of magnitudes > 4.0. Our simulation algorithm is based on several physical elements, such as an average slip rate due to tectonic loading for every single segment in the investigated fault system, the process of rupture growth and termination, and interaction between earthquake sources, including small magnitude events. The application of our simulation algorithm to the CGFS provided realistic features in time, space and magnitude behaviour of the seismicity. These features include longterm periodicity of strong earthquakes, short-term clustering of both strong and smaller events, and a realistic earthquake magnitude distribution departing from the Gutenberg-Richter distribution in the moderate and higher magnitude range.

scholarly journals Evidence of active tectonics in the Augusta Basin (eastern Sicily, Italy) by Chirp sub-bottom sonar investigation

2014 ◽  
Vol 56 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
Claudia Pirrotta ◽  
Maria Serafina Barbano ◽  
Daniela Pantosti ◽  
Paolo Marco De Martini
Keyword(s):  
Active Faults ◽  
Active Tectonics ◽  
Fault System ◽  
Normal Faults ◽  
Strong Earthquakes ◽  
The Holocene ◽  
Regional Seismicity ◽  
Holocene Sediments ◽  
Recent Activity ◽  
Fault Scarps

<p>A Chirp sub-bottom sonar investigation was performed in the 150 km<sup>2</sup> wideAugustaBasin, located in the eastern Sicily Ionian coast, a region repeatedly hit by strong earthquakes in historical time, with the end of identifying possible evidence of active tectonics. Seismostratigraphy shows two main reflectors: R1, formed between 60 ka and 19 ka BP, and R2 that is the top of the Holocene deposits. Morphobathymetry reveals two marine abrasion surfaces, Ms1 and Ms2 that are related to the 35 ka and 25 ka BP marine high stills, respectively. This study highlights that R1 and the onlapping Holocene sediments are affected by normal and probably strike-slip faulting. A set of NE-SW striking normal faults represents the oldest system, because they dislocate R1 but not the Holocene deposit. NNW-SSE striking extensional faults show more recent activity since they displace Ms2, the Holocene sequence and cause seafloor up-warping. NE-SW normal faults produce asymmetric basins where the Holocene deposits form wedged bodies. ENE-WSW left-lateral faults dissect a paleo-island, Ms2 and the NNW-SSE fault system. Moreover, seismically induced  slumps involving the Holocene sediments, are found at the foot of some fault scarps. The presence of slumped bodies and active faults indicates ongoing deformation in the basin. Identified active faults are consistent with the main regional Malta Escarpment fault system, of which they can be considered as the incipient westernmost extension. This study supports the hypothesis that the Malta Escarpment is active and can be responsible for the regional seismicity.</p>

Rate and State Seismicity Simulations for Large Earthquake Cycles in Western Taiwan

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hung-Yu Wu ◽  
Kuo-Fong Ma ◽  
Bill Fry
Keyword(s):  
Stress State ◽  
Slip Rate ◽  
Large Earthquake ◽  
Initial Stresses ◽  
Fault System ◽  
Recurrence Time ◽  
Seismic Events ◽  
Earthquake Catalog ◽  
Initial Stress State ◽  
Earthquake Cycles

&lt;p&gt;The stress state variation during the fault rupturing is the key issue for the earthquake hazard. However, the modern seismic catalogs exist the huge gap of large earthquake recurrence records. To understand the occurrence, the probabilities and the dynamic processing of large earthquakes, we employed the multi-cycle earthquake simulator, RSQSim, to exam the fundamental aspects of seismicity distribution in spatial and time in western Taiwan. This 3D, boundary element software assembles the Rate and State Friction law (RSF) and initial stress state to simulate the earthquakes distributions in completely, complex seismogenic system. The heterogeneous initial stresses and recurrence seismic events would be estimated in the long sequences. In this research, we focus on the similarity comparison to the CWB earthquake catalog and Taiwan Earthquake Model (TEM) for the RSQSim simulations. Additionally, this information provides the near optimal nucleation locations and seismic events propagation at the stress evolution in Taiwan faulting systems. Through this process, we would like to examine the recurrence time of the significant earthquakes in western Taiwan. RSQsim results include the comprehensive large events in temporal series to understand the key discrepancy between models and simulators, which will bring the mutual input to TEM for update discussion on slip rate, stress accumulation, and fault system. These modifications provide the better understanding of faults slip and stress state evolution to support the fundamental aspects of earthquake cycles.&lt;/p&gt;

scholarly journals SIGNIFICANT EARTHQUAKES NEAR THE CITY OF THESSALONIKI (NORTHERN GREECE) AND PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION ON FAULTS

2017 ◽  
Vol 50 (3) ◽  
pp. 1389
Author(s):  
P.M. Paradisopoulou ◽  
E.E. Papadimitriou ◽  
J. Mirek
Keyword(s):  
Stress Transfer ◽  
Time Dependent ◽  
Earthquake Catalog ◽  
Northern Greece ◽  
Earthquake Probability ◽  
Fault Segment ◽  
Probability Estimates ◽  
Macroseismic Intensities ◽  
The City ◽  
Dependent Probability

Stress triggering must be incorporated into quantitative earthquake probability estimate, given that faults are interacted though their stress field. Using time dependent probability estimates this work aims at the evaluation of the occurrence probability of anticipated earthquakes near the city of Thessaloniki, an urban center of 1 million people located in northern Greece, conditional to the time elapsed since the last stronger event on each fault segment of the study area. A method that calculates the macroseismic epicenter and magnitude according to macroseismic intensities is used to improve the existing earthquake catalog (from AD 1600 - 2013 with M≥6.0) in order to compute new interevent and elapsed time values which form the basis for time-dependent probability estimates. To investigate the effects of stress transfer to seismic hazard, the probabilistic calculations presented here employ detailed models of coseismic stress associated with the 20 June 1978 M=6.5 Thessaloniki which is the latest destructive earthquake in the area in the instrumental era. The combined 2015-2045 regional Poisson probability of M≥6.0 earthquakes is ~35% the regional time-dependent probability varies from 0% to 15% and incorporation of stress transfer from 0% to 20% for each fault segment.

scholarly journals A declustered earthquake catalog for the Iranian Plateau

2015 ◽  
Vol 57 (6) ◽  
Author(s):  
Seyed Hasan Mousavi-Bafrouei ◽  
Noorbakhsh Mirzaei ◽  
Elham Shabani
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Time Windows ◽  
Recurrence Time ◽  
Earthquake Catalog ◽  
Magnitude Of Completeness ◽  
Iranian Plateau ◽  
Seismic Stations ◽  
International Agencies ◽  
Seismotectonic Province

A unified catalog of earthquakes in Iran and adjacent regions (the area bounded in 22<sup>º</sup>-42<sup>º</sup>N and 42<sup>º</sup>-66<sup>º</sup>E) covering the period of 4<sup>th</sup> century B.C. through 2012 with M<sub>w</sub>≥4 is provided. The catalog includes all events for which magnitude have been determined by international agencies and most reliable individual sources. Since the recurrence time of maximum credible earthquake cannot be directly estimated from the m<sub>b</sub>, empirical formulae are established to convert m<sub>b</sub> to M<sub>s</sub>, m<sub>b</sub> to M<sub>w</sub> and M<sub>s</sub> to M<sub>w</sub> for each major seismotectonic province separately. The unified catalog is declustered using conjugated distance-time windows. In order to estimate completeness thresholds, magnitude-time (M-T) diagram and Stepp’s method are applied on the declustered catalog for each seismotectonic province. The magnitude of completeness (M<sub>c</sub>) decreases with development of local and regional seismic stations. The results of present study are particularly important in seismic hazard analysis in Iran.

The Prediction of the Earthquake Trend in Taiwan and Sichuan Region Based on the Neutral Network Model and Seismic Change Rate

2011 ◽  
Vol 204-210 ◽  
pp. 994-999
Author(s):  
Wei Li ◽  
Shao Ying Huang ◽  
Jian Feng Qiu ◽  
Xing Chang Wang
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Network Model ◽  
Neural Network Model ◽  
Earthquake Catalog ◽  
Time Intervals ◽  
Change Rate ◽  
Strong Earthquakes ◽  
The Neural Network ◽  
Moderate Earthquake ◽  
Sichuan Region

We recently proposed a technique able to analyze the trend of the seismic activity by combining neural network model and seismic factors. In this paper, a variation of seismicity was introduced to reflect the corresponding vary of the frequency of earthquake. This variation was used as the precursor of future moderate earthquake. The time intervals of earthquake will be obtained through training the neural network. Then we judge the occurrence of strong earthquakes according to the time intervals. Finally, some statistical researches were made by using the method for the earthquake catalog in Sichuan and Taiwan in China. Through this above, we verify the validity of this method and state the general steps of this method.

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