A Shallow Shock: The 25 February 2019 ML 4.9 Earthquake in the Weiyuan Shale Gas Field in Sichuan, China

2020 ◽  
Vol 91 (6) ◽  
pp. 3182-3194
Author(s):  
Hongfeng Yang ◽  
Pengcheng Zhou ◽  
Nan Fang ◽  
Gaohua Zhu ◽  
Wenbin Xu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Hydraulic Fracturing ◽  
Shale Gas ◽  
Stress Transfer ◽  
Induced Earthquakes ◽  
Gas Field ◽  
Thrust Faulting ◽  
Tectonic Events ◽  
Coulomb Failure ◽  
Triggering Threshold

Abstract Earthquakes rarely occur at extremely shallow depths, for example, less than 2 km. Even for induced earthquakes that are typically shallower than tectonic events, only very small ones have been reported in such depths. The ML 4.9 earthquake (Mw 4.3) that struck the Rongxian County, Sichuan, China on 25 February 2019 was an extremely shallow event. Seismological and geodetic data constrained the mainshock depth at ∼1  km with a thrust-faulting mechanism, consistent with the Molin fault orienting northwest. Two foreshocks with magnitudes larger than 4 occurred on an unmapped fault striking northeast, right next to an injection well where hydraulic fracturing (HF) was conducted. The focal depths of the two foreshocks were at ∼2.7  km, coinciding with the depth of HF. Coulomb failure stresses of the two foreshocks on the Molin fault was ∼3  kPa, smaller than typical static triggering threshold (10 kPa), and thus their triggering effects were mild. As the fault was hydraulically sealed from HF, we suggested that the ML 4.9 earthquake was possibly triggered by nearby HF activities through poroelastic stress transfer. Such findings held significant implications for shale gas development by considering seismic hazard associated with shallow faults.

Induced or triggered? The deadly February 2019 Rongxian-Weiyuan ML 4.9 earthquake in the shale gas field in Sichuan, China

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hongfeng Yang ◽  
Pengcheng Zhou ◽  
Nan Fang ◽  
Gaohua Zhu ◽  
Wenbin Xu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Shale Gas ◽  
Fault Injection ◽  
Stress Transfer ◽  
Gas Production ◽  
Failure Stress ◽  
Injection Wells ◽  
Gas Field ◽  
Coulomb Failure Stress ◽  
Coulomb Failure Stress Change ◽  
Coulomb Failure

<p>Coinciding with the extensive hydraulic fracturing activities in the southern Sichuan basin, seismicity in the region has surged in the past a few years, including a number of earthquakes with magnitudes larger than 5. On 25 February 2019, an M<sub>L</sub>4.9 earthquake struck the Rongxian County, Sichuan, China and caused 2 fatalities and 12 injuries, the first deadly earthquake associated with shale gas production. The earthquake was preceded by two foreshocks with magnitudes of M<sub>L</sub>4.7 and M<sub>L</sub>4.3 within two days. We relocated the earthquake sequence using local and regional seismic network, and obtained the focal depths of the mainshock and two foreshocks at 1 and 3 km, respectively, much shallower than the report from catalogue. Most other smaller quakes were located at 2-6 km. The mainshock had also been well captured by InSAR images, which confirmed the shallow depth of ~1 km. Both seismic and geodetic data yielded thrust faulting mechanism for the mainshock, consistent with the mapped Molin fault in the region. The two foreshocks, however, occurred on an unmapped fault that has different orientation than the Molin fault. Injection wells are found in the vicinity of the two foreshocks and the fracking depth (~2.7 km) coincides with their focal depths, suggesting a possible causal relationship. The mainshock is located in the region with positive Coulomb failure stress caused the two foreshocks. The value of Coulomb failure stress change is 0.03 bar, smaller than the typical static triggering threshold. Therefore, the mainshock is likely caused by fracking by poroelastic stress transfer.</p>

Framework for a Ground-Motion Model for Induced Seismic Hazard and Risk Analysis in the Groningen Gas Field, The Netherlands

2017 ◽  
Vol 33 (2) ◽  
pp. 481-498 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julian J. Bommer ◽  
Peter J. Stafford ◽  
Benjamin Edwards ◽  
Bernard Dost ◽  
Ewoud van Dedem ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Quantitative Estimation ◽  
Epistemic Uncertainty ◽  
Induced Earthquakes ◽  
Gas Field ◽  
Small Magnitude ◽  
Ground Motion Model ◽  
Hazard And Risk ◽  
Groningen Gas Field

The potential for building damage and personal injury due to induced earthquakes in the Groningen gas field is being modeled in order to inform risk management decisions. To facilitate the quantitative estimation of the induced seismic hazard and risk, a ground motion prediction model has been developed for response spectral accelerations and duration due to these earthquakes that originate within the reservoir at 3 km depth. The model is consistent with the motions recorded from small-magnitude events and captures the epistemic uncertainty associated with extrapolation to larger magnitudes. In order to reflect the conditions in the field, the model first predicts accelerations at a rock horizon some 800 m below the surface and then convolves these motions with frequency-dependent nonlinear amplification factors assigned to zones across the study area. The variability of the ground motions is modeled in all of its constituent parts at the rock and surface levels.

scholarly journals A New Procedure for Evaluating Ground-Motion Models, with Application to Hydraulic-Fracture-Induced Seismicity in the United Kingdom

2020 ◽  
Vol 110 (5) ◽  
pp. 2380-2397 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gemma Cremen ◽  
Maximilian J. Werner ◽  
Brian Baptie
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Shale Gas ◽  
Hydraulic Fracture ◽  
Induced Seismicity ◽  
Ground Motions ◽  
Induced Earthquakes ◽  
Statistical Tool ◽  
Motion Models ◽  
Ground Motion Models

ABSTRACT An essential component of seismic hazard analysis is the prediction of ground shaking (and its uncertainty), using ground-motion models (GMMs). This article proposes a new method to evaluate (i.e., rank) the suitability of GMMs for modeling ground motions in a given region. The method leverages a statistical tool from sensitivity analysis to quantitatively compare predictions of a GMM with underlying observations. We demonstrate the performance of the proposed method relative to several other popular GMM ranking procedures and highlight its advantages, which include its intuitive scoring system and its ability to account for the hierarchical structure of GMMs. We use the proposed method to evaluate the applicability of several GMMs for modeling ground motions from induced earthquakes due to U.K. shale gas development. The data consist of 195 recordings at hypocentral distances (R) less than 10 km for 29 events with local magnitude (ML) greater than 0 that relate to 2018/2019 hydraulic-fracture operations at the Preston New Road shale gas site in Lancashire and 192 R<10  km recordings for 48 ML>0 events induced—within the same geologic formation—by coal mining near New Ollerton, North Nottinghamshire. We examine: (1) the Akkar, Sandikkaya, and Bommer (2014) models for European seismicity; (2) the Douglas et al. (2013) model for geothermal-induced seismicity; and (3) the Atkinson (2015) model for central and eastern North America induced seismicity. We find the Douglas et al. (2013) model to be the most suitable for almost all of the considered ground-motion intensity measures. We modify this model by recomputing its coefficients in line with the observed data, to further improve its accuracy for future analyses of the seismic hazard of interest. This study both advances the state of the art in GMM evaluation and enhances understanding of the seismic hazard related to U.K. shale gas development.

scholarly journals Maturity of nearby faults influences seismic hazard from hydraulic fracturing

2018 ◽  
Vol 115 (8) ◽  
pp. E1720-E1729 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria Kozłowska ◽  
Michael R. Brudzinski ◽  
Paul Friberg ◽  
Robert J. Skoumal ◽  
Nicholas D. Baxter ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Hydraulic Fracturing ◽  
Fluid Pressure ◽  
Stress Transfer ◽  
Induced Earthquakes ◽  
Geologic History ◽  
B Values ◽  
Pressure Diffusion ◽  
Hydrologic Connections ◽  
Paleozoic Rocks ◽  
High Pressure Injection

Understanding the causes of human-induced earthquakes is paramount to reducing societal risk. We investigated five cases of seismicity associated with hydraulic fracturing (HF) in Ohio since 2013 that, because of their isolation from other injection activities, provide an ideal setting for studying the relations between high-pressure injection and earthquakes. Our analysis revealed two distinct groups: (i) deeper earthquakes in the Precambrian basement, with larger magnitudes (M > 2), b-values < 1, and many post–shut-in earthquakes, versus (ii) shallower earthquakes in Paleozoic rocks ∼400 m below HF, with smaller magnitudes (M < 1), b-values > 1.5, and few post–shut-in earthquakes. Based on geologic history, laboratory experiments, and fault modeling, we interpret the deep seismicity as slip on more mature faults in older crystalline rocks and the shallow seismicity as slip on immature faults in younger sedimentary rocks. This suggests that HF inducing deeper seismicity may pose higher seismic hazards. Wells inducing deeper seismicity produced more water than wells with shallow seismicity, indicating more extensive hydrologic connections outside the target formation, consistent with pore pressure diffusion influencing seismicity. However, for both groups, the 2 to 3 h between onset of HF and seismicity is too short for typical fluid pressure diffusion rates across distances of ∼1 km and argues for poroelastic stress transfer also having a primary influence on seismicity.

Coupled Poroelastic Modeling to Characterize the 4.18-Magnitude Earthquake Due to Hydraulic Fracturing in the East Shale Basin of Western Canada

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gang Hui ◽  
Shengnan Chen ◽  
Fei Gu
Keyword(s):  
Hydraulic Fracturing ◽  
Solid Mechanics ◽  
Flow Behavior ◽  
Seismic Hazards ◽  
Integrated Analysis ◽  
Western Canada ◽  
Induced Earthquakes ◽  
Fault Activation ◽  
Coulomb Failure ◽  
Poroelastic Modeling

Abstract Recently, the elevated levels of seismicity activities in Western Canada have been demonstrated to be linked to hydraulic fracturing operations that developed unconventional resources. The underlying triggering mechanisms of hydraulic fracturing-induced seismicity are still uncertain. The interactions of well stimulation and geology-geomechanical-hydrological features need to be investigated comprehensively. The linear poroelasticity theory was utilized to guide coupled poroelastic modeling and to quantify the physical process during hydraulic fracturing. The integrated analysis is first conducted to characterize the mechanical features and fluid flow behavior. The finite-element simulation is then conducted by coupling Darcy's law and solid mechanics to quantify the perturbation of pore pressure and poroelastic stress in the seismogenic fault zone. Finally, the Mohr-coulomb failure criterion is utilized to determine the spatial-temporal faults activation and reveal the trigger mechanisms of induced earthquakes. The mitigation strategy was proposed accordingly to reduce the potential seismic hazards near this region. A case study of ML 4.18 earthquake in the East Shale Basin was utilized to demonstrate the applicability of the coupled modeling and numerical simulation. Results showed that one inferred fault cut through the Duvernay formation with the strike of NE20°. The fracture half-length of two wells owns an average value of 124 m. The brittleness index deriving from the velocity logging data was estimated to be a relatively higher value in the Duvernay formation, indicating a geomechanical bias of stimulated formation for the fault activation. The coupled poroelastic simulation was conducted, showing that the hydrologic connection between seismogenic faults and stimulated well was established by the end of the 38th stage completion for the east horizontal well. The simulated coulomb failure stress surrounding the fault reached a maximum of 4.15 MPa, exceeding the critical value to cause the fault slip. Hence the poroelastic effects on the inferred fault were responsible for the fault activation and triggered the subsequent ML 4.18 earthquake. It is essential to optimize the stimulation site selection near the existing faults to reduce risks of future seismic hazards near the East Shale Basin.

Shale, Quakes, and High Stakes: Regulating Fracking-Induced Seismicity in Oklahoma, USA and Lancashire, UK

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-14
Author(s):  
Miriam R. Aczel ◽  
Karen E. Makuch
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Hydraulic Fracturing ◽  
Shale Gas ◽  
Seismic Activity ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Oil And Gas Industry ◽  
High Volume ◽  
The United States ◽  
Horizontal Drilling ◽  
Induced Seismic Activity

High-volume hydraulic fracturing combined with horizontal drilling has “revolutionized” the United States’ oil and gas industry by allowing extraction of previously inaccessible oil and gas trapped in shale rock [1]. Although the United States has extracted shale gas in different states for several decades, the United Kingdom is in the early stages of developing its domestic shale gas resources, in the hopes of replicating the United States’ commercial success with the technologies [2, 3]. However, the extraction of shale gas using hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling poses potential risks to the environment and natural resources, human health, and communities and local livelihoods. Risks include contamination of water resources, air pollution, and induced seismic activity near shale gas operation sites. This paper examines the regulation of potential induced seismic activity in Oklahoma, USA, and Lancashire, UK, and concludes with recommendations for strengthening these protections.

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