Postglacial strain rate – stress paradox, example of the Western Alps active faults

The understanding of the origins of seismicity in intraplate regions is crucial to better characterize seismic hazards. In formerly glaciated regions such as Fennoscandia North America or the Western Alps, stress perturbations from Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) have been proposed as a major cause of large earthquakes. In this study, we focus on the Western Alps case using numerical modeling of lithosphere response to the Last Glacial Maximum icecap. We show that the flexural response to GIA induces present-day stress perturbations of ca. 1–2 MPa, associated with horizontal extension rates up to ca. 2.5 × 10−9 yr−1. The latter is in good agreement with extension rates of ca. 2 × 10−9 yr−1 derived from high-resolution geodetic (GNSS) data and with the overall seismicity deformation pattern. In the majority of simulations, stress perturbations induced by GIA promote fault reactivation in the internal massifs and in the foreland regions (i.e., positive Coulomb Failure Stress perturbation), but with predicted rakes systematically incompatible with those from earthquake focal mechanisms. Thus, although GIA explains a major part of the GNSS strain rates, it tends to inhibit the observed seismicity in the Western Alps. A direct corollary of this result is that, in cases of significant GIA effect, GNSS strain rate measurements cannot be directly integrated in seismic hazard computations, but instead require detailed modeling of the GIA transient impact.

Complex Slip Distribution of the 2021 Mw 7.4 Maduo, China, Earthquake: An Event Occurring on the Slowly Slipping Fault

The 21 May 2021 Maduo earthquake occurred on the Kunlun Mountain Pass–Jiangcuo fault (KMPJF), a seismogenic fault with no documented large earthquakes. To probe its kinematics, we first estimate the slip rates of the KMPJF and Tuosuo Lake segment (TLS, ∼75 km north of the KMPJF) of the East Kunlun fault (EKLF) based on the secular Global Positioning System (GPS) data using the Markov chain Monte Carlo method. Our model reveals that the slip rates of the KMPJF and TLS are 1.7 ± 0.8 and 7.1 ± 0.3 mm/yr, respectively. Then, we invert high-resolution GPS and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar observations to decipher the fault geometry and detailed coseismic slip distribution associated with the Maduo earthquake. The geometry of the KMPFJ significantly varies along strike, composed of five fault subsegments. The most slip is accommodated by two steeply dipping fault segments, with the patch of large sinistral slip concentrated in the shallow depth on a simple straight structure. The released seismic moment is ∼1.5×1020 N·m, equivalent to an Mw 7.39 event, with a peak slip of ∼9.3 m. Combining the average coseismic slip and slip rate of the main fault, an earthquake recurrence period of ∼1250−400+1120 yr is estimated. The Maduo earthquake reminds us to reevaluate the potential of seismic gaps where slip rates are low. Based on our calculated Coulomb failure stress, the Maduo earthquake imposes positive stress on the Maqin–Maqu segment of the EKLF, a long-recognized seismic gap, implying that it may accelerate the occurrence of the next major event in this region.

Magnitude and Timing of the Tiltill Rockslide in Yosemite National Park, California

ABSTRACT Yosemite National Park, California, is one of the best-documented sites of historical rockfalls and other rock slope failures; however, past work shows that this record does not capture the infrequent largest occurrences, prehistoric events orders of magnitude larger than the largest historic ones. These large prehistoric events are evident as voluminous bouldery landslide deposits, permitting volume and age quantification to better understand local volume–frequency relationships, potential triggering mechanisms, and the hazard such events might pose. The Tiltill rockslide in northern Yosemite is one such example, consisting of 2.1 × 106 m3 ± 1.6 × 106 m3 of talus (1.5 × 106 m3 original volume of rock mass) that slid across the floor of Tiltill Valley, partially damming Tiltill Creek to create a seasonal pond that drains through and around the rockslide mass. This volume and the rockslide's effective coefficient of friction, 0.47, place it near the boundary between long-runout landslides and ordinary Coulomb failure. Although the rockslide superficially appears to consist of two separate lobes, statistically indistinguishable 10Be exposure dates from eight samples indicate a single event that occurred at 13.0 ± 0.8 ka. The age of the Tiltill rockslide and its relatively low elevation compared to equilibrium line altitudes at this place and time make glacial debutressing a highly unlikely triggering mechanism. Seismic shaking associated with fault rupture along the eastern Sierra Nevada is shown to be a plausible but unverified trigger.

Application of Deterministic Method for Landslide Susceptibility with Deep Learning

A method for estimating landslide susceptibility based on the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) was developed in 2017 as a deterministic method. The objective of this study is to verify the reliability of the proposed method by applying deep learning to improve the applicability of the method. The AHP-based deterministic method comprises eight factors: fines content, soil thickness, porosity, elastic modulus, shear strength, hydraulic conductivity, saturation, and water content. After dividing the testing area into 1 m square grids, eight factors were derived through field and laboratory experiments. The factor of safety was calculated based on the Mohr-Coulomb failure theory. Finally, the input and output values of deep learning were obtained. Bayesian regularization was applied among gradient descents to improve the learning efficiency when applying machine learning. The actual and predicted factors of safety were compared, and they showed excellent reliability in both the training and test phases. This study demonstrates that the AHP-based deterministic method with deep learning is valuable for determining landslide risk areas.

Coupled Poroelastic Modeling to Characterize the 4.18-Magnitude Earthquake Due to Hydraulic Fracturing in the East Shale Basin of Western Canada

Recently, the elevated levels of seismicity activities in Western Canada have been demonstrated to be linked to hydraulic fracturing operations that developed unconventional resources. The underlying triggering mechanisms of hydraulic fracturing-induced seismicity are still uncertain. The interactions of well stimulation and geology-geomechanical-hydrological features need to be investigated comprehensively. The linear poroelasticity theory was utilized to guide coupled poroelastic modeling and to quantify the physical process during hydraulic fracturing. The integrated analysis is first conducted to characterize the mechanical features and fluid flow behavior. The finite-element simulation is then conducted by coupling Darcy's law and solid mechanics to quantify the perturbation of pore pressure and poroelastic stress in the seismogenic fault zone. Finally, the Mohr-coulomb failure criterion is utilized to determine the spatial-temporal faults activation and reveal the trigger mechanisms of induced earthquakes. The mitigation strategy was proposed accordingly to reduce the potential seismic hazards near this region. A case study of ML 4.18 earthquake in the East Shale Basin was utilized to demonstrate the applicability of the coupled modeling and numerical simulation. Results showed that one inferred fault cut through the Duvernay formation with the strike of NE20°. The fracture half-length of two wells owns an average value of 124 m. The brittleness index deriving from the velocity logging data was estimated to be a relatively higher value in the Duvernay formation, indicating a geomechanical bias of stimulated formation for the fault activation. The coupled poroelastic simulation was conducted, showing that the hydrologic connection between seismogenic faults and stimulated well was established by the end of the 38th stage completion for the east horizontal well. The simulated coulomb failure stress surrounding the fault reached a maximum of 4.15 MPa, exceeding the critical value to cause the fault slip. Hence the poroelastic effects on the inferred fault were responsible for the fault activation and triggered the subsequent ML 4.18 earthquake. It is essential to optimize the stimulation site selection near the existing faults to reduce risks of future seismic hazards near the East Shale Basin.

The Establishment and Evaluation Method of Artificial Microcracks in Rocks

It is necessary to carry out experiments on cores with different degrees of crack development when studying the seepage law of cracked reservoirs and evaluating cracks. The seepage experiment in the laboratory requires cores with different degrees of microcrack development; cores obtained via conventional drilling cannot meet the requirements, and the efficacies and evaluation methods of geological parameters used for artificial cracks are not perfect. In this study, cores are loaded using a triaxial gripper, and cracks are produced by changing the difference of stress; the relationship between the increased rate of permeability and the change in stress concentration is used to evaluate the degree of development of the crack in real time. The angle between the cracks and the maximum principal stress direction, calculated using the Mohr–Coulomb failure criterion, is 20–27.5°, which provides theoretical support for the process of crack creation. The experimental results show that the permeability variation curve shows two obvious turning points, which divide the whole zone into a reduction zone, a slow increase zone, and a rapid increase zone. Through the obtained experimental and evaluation results, a complete system for crack creation and evaluation is established, which can provide strong support for the study of cracked reservoirs.

Assessment of the Seismic Hazards of the Marikina Valley Fault from 2019 Mw 6.1 Castillejos Earthquake and Historical Events

The 2019 Mw 6.1 Castillejos earthquake occurred in the Zambales range of the central Luzon Island in Philippines. No active fault was reported around the seismogenic zone according to previous investigations. This earthquake draws attention for assessment in seismic risk along the Marikina Valley fault system (MVFS) near the Manila dense metropolitan population. The Coulomb failure stress (CFS) change on the MVFS is estimated by the coseismic faulting model derived from the inversion of coseismic deformation field observed from the Differential Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar using both the Advanced Land Observing Satellite-2 and Sentinel-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images. The predicted CFS change is less than 0.5 kPa that implies insignificant Coulomb stress accumulation on the MVFS after the Mw 6.1 Castillejos event. However, the recorded 14 moderate and strong earthquakes in and around the Luzon islands caused significant CFS drop on the MVFS. This might delay the occurrence of the earthquake for 0.2–50 yr on the MVFS.