Bounds on the Average Recurrence Interval of Major Earthquakes Along the Haiyuan Fault In North-Central China

1988 ◽  
Vol 59 (3) ◽  
pp. 81-89 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhang Peizhen ◽  
Peter Molnar ◽  
Zhang Weigi ◽  
Deng Qidong ◽  
Wang Yipeng ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Slip Rate ◽  
Recurrence Interval ◽  
Central China ◽  
Great Earthquake ◽  
Average Amount ◽  
Earthquake Recurrence ◽  
Surface Rupture ◽  
North Central ◽  
Recurrence Intervals ◽  
Historic Record

Abstract Evidence of surface rupture has been found in trenches near Caiyuan and Shaomayin along the Haiyuan fault, where a great earthquake occurred in 1920. In addition to the 1920 earthquake, faulting occurred at least once between 2590 ± 190 years and 1525 ± 170 years B.P. in Caiyuan, and there probably was another event since 1525 ± 170 years B.P. The formation and later tilting of fault-related, scarp-derived colluvial wedges in the Shaomayin trench appear to record the occurrence of two pre-1920 events in the last 2200–3700 years, but there could have been three or more events. The average recurrence interval for great earthquakes along the Haiyuan fault probably exceeds 700 years, for the 1920 Haiyuan earthquake is the only major event to have been reported in this area in as many years of recorded history. Using a Holocene slip rate along this fault of 8 ± 2 mm/yr, and 8 m as the average amount of offset associated with past great events that have been determined by our previous studies, the resultant earthquake recurrence intervals would be from 800 to 1400 years. The results from our trenches and the historic record are consistent with this range.

Coseismic Displacement and Recurrence Interval of the 1973 Ragay Gulf Earthquake, Southern Luzon, Philippines

2015 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 83-90 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hiroyuki Tsutsumi ◽  
◽  
Jeffrey S. Perez ◽  
Jaime U. Marjes ◽  
Kathleen L. Papiona ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Slip Rate ◽  
Recurrence Interval ◽  
Geologic Mapping ◽  
Fault Creep ◽  
Coseismic Displacement ◽  
Surface Rupture ◽  
The Past

The 1973 Ragay Gulf earthquake produced an onshore surface rupture approximately 30 km in length along the Guinayangan segment of the Philippine fault in southern Luzon Island. Through geologic mapping and paleoseismic trenching, we have characterized the amount of coseismic offsets, the average recurrence interval, and the slip rate of the segment. The coseismic offsets we identified in the field were fairly constant along the fault, ranging from 1 to 2 m. Paleoseismic trenching at the Capuluan Tulon site exposed stratigraphic evidence for three or possibly four surfacerupturing events after the deposition of strata dated at AD 410–535. The average recurrence interval was calculated to be 360–780 years, which is close to that for the Digdig fault, the source fault of the 1990 central Luzon earthquake. The slip rate, based on the calculated recurrence interval and offsets during the 1973 earthquake, has been calculated to be 2.1–4.4 mm/yr. This rate is significantly smaller than the geodetic slip and creep rates of 20–25 mm/yr estimated for the Philippine fault on the islands of Masbate and Leyte. The slip rate deficit may be explained by the possibilities of underestimation of the recurrence interval due to possible missing paleoseismic events within the stratigraphic records, the occurrence of larger earthquakes in the past, and the aseismic fault creep between the surface-rupturing earthquakes.

scholarly journals The impact of earthquake cycle variability on neotectonic and paleoseismic slip rate estimates

Solid Earth ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 15-25 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard Styron
Keyword(s):  
Late Quaternary ◽  
Epistemic Uncertainty ◽  
Slip Rate ◽  
Earthquake Recurrence ◽  
Coseismic Slip ◽  
Slip Rates ◽  
True Value ◽  
Recurrence Intervals ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Earthquake Cycles

Abstract. Because of the natural (aleatoric) variability in earthquake recurrence intervals and coseismic displacements on a fault, cumulative slip on a fault does not increase linearly or perfectly step-wise with time; instead, some amount of variability in shorter-term slip rates results. Though this variability could greatly affect the accuracy of neotectonic (i.e., late Quaternary) and paleoseismic slip rate estimates, these effects have not been quantified. In this study, idealized faults with four different, representative, earthquake recurrence distributions are created with equal mean recurrence intervals (1000 years) and coseismic slip distributions, and the variability in slip rate estimates over 500- to 100 000-year measurement windows is calculated for all faults through Monte Carlo simulations. Slip rates are calculated as net offset divided by elapsed time, as in a typical neotectonic study. The recurrence distributions used are quasi-periodic, unclustered and clustered lognormal distributions, and an unclustered exponential distribution. The results demonstrate that the most important parameter is the coefficient of variation (CV = standard deviation ∕ mean) of the recurrence distributions rather than the shape of the distribution itself. Slip rate variability over short timescales (< 5000 years or 5 mean earthquake cycles) is quite high, varying by a factor of 3 or more from the mean, but decreases with time and is close to stable after ∼40 000 years (40 mean earthquake cycles). This variability is higher for recurrence distributions with a higher CV. The natural variability in the slip rate estimates compared to the true value is then used to estimate the epistemic uncertainty in a single slip rate measurement (as one would make in a geological study) in the absence of any measurement uncertainty. This epistemic uncertainty is very high (a factor of 2 or more) for measurement windows of a few mean earthquake cycles (as in a paleoseismic slip rate estimate), but decreases rapidly to a factor of 1–2 with > 5 mean earthquake cycles (as in a neotectonic slip rate study). These uncertainties are independent of, and should be propagated with, uncertainties in fault displacement and geochronologic measurements used to estimate slip rates. They may then aid in the comparison of slip rates from different methods or the evaluation of potential slip rate changes over time.

scholarly journals Constraining Central Washington’s Potential Seismic Hazard

Eos ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 99 ◽  
Author(s):  
Terri Cook
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Slip Rate ◽  
Fault Geometry ◽  
Earthquake Recurrence ◽  
Recurrence Intervals

Fault geometry and slip rate analyses show deformation in the Yakima Fold Province accelerated in the Pleistocene and has remained elevated, offering new insights into earthquake recurrence intervals.

Bounds on the Holocene Slip Rate of the Haiyuan Fault, North-Central China

1988 ◽  
Vol 30 (2) ◽  
pp. 151-164 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhang Peizhen ◽  
Peter Molnar ◽  
B. C. Burchfiel ◽  
L. Royden ◽  
Wang Yipeng ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Lower Bounds ◽  
Average Rate ◽  
Slip Rate ◽  
Strike Slip ◽  
Strike Slip Fault ◽  
Central China ◽  
Quaternary Period ◽  
North Central ◽  
The Holocene ◽  
Estimate Lower

We measured the offsets of six stream valleys, of 30 to 90 m, along the northwest-southeast trending, left-lateral Haiyuan strike-slip fault, in north-central China. Minimum ages of these offsets were determined to estimate lower bounds for the Holocene slip rate. The most reliable bounds are 7.6 ± 1.0 and 6.7 ± 1.0 mm/yr, with three others that are smaller (3.4 ± 0.7, 3.5 ± 0.9, and 4.1 ± 0.4 mm/yr) and one large value (16.4 ± 5.9 mm/yr) that we doubt. Thus, the average Holocene slip rate of the Haiyuan fault is larger than 6 mm/yr and probably exceeds 7 mm/yr. If the average slip rate of 5 to 10 mm/yr for the Quaternary Period is applicable to the Holocene Epoch, the average rate is 8 ± 2 mm/yr.

scholarly journals The impact of earthquake cycle variability on neotectonic and paleoseismic slip rate estimates

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard Styron
Keyword(s):  
Late Quaternary ◽  
Slip Rate ◽  
Earthquake Recurrence ◽  
Coseismic Slip ◽  
Slip Rates ◽  
Rate Study ◽  
Recurrence Intervals ◽  
Short Time ◽  
Fault Displacement ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Because of the natural variability (aleatoric uncertainty) in earthquake recurrence intervals and coseismic displacements on a fault, cumulative slip on a fault does not increase linearly or perfectly step-wise with time; instead, some amount of variability in shorter-term slip rates results. Though this variability could greatly affect the accuracy of neotectonic (i.e., late Quaternary) and paleoseismic slip rate estimates, these effects have not been quantified. In this study, idealized faults with four different, representative earthquake recurrence distributions are created with equal mean recurrence intervals (1,000 years) and coseismic slip distributions, and the variability in slip rate measurements over 500 to 100,000 year measurement windows is calculated for all faults through Monte Carlo simulations. The recurrence distributions used are quasi-periodic, unclustered and clustered lognormal distributions, and an unclustered exponential distribution. The results demonstrate that the most important parameter is the coefficient of variation (COV = standard deviation/mean) of the recurrence distributions rather than the shape of the distribution itself. Slip rate variability over short time scales ( 5 mean earthquake cycles (as in a neotectonic slip rate study). These uncertainties are independent of, and should be propagated with uncertainties in fault displacement and geochronologic measurements used to estimate slip rates. They may then aid in the comparison of slip rates from different methods or the evaluation of potential slip rate changes over time.

Determining the Slip Rate and Earthquake Recurrence Interval on the Tip of a Foreberg in the Gobi-Altai, Mongolia

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
C.H. Lee ◽  
Y.B. Seong ◽  
J.-S. Oh
Keyword(s):  
Surface Deformation ◽  
Slip Rate ◽  
Alluvial Fan ◽  
Recurrence Interval ◽  
Luminescence Dating ◽  
High Mountain ◽  
Earthquake Recurrence ◽  
Mountain Ranges ◽  
Earthquake Recurrence Interval ◽  
Exposure Ages

Abstract ––The Gobi-Altai, Mongolia, includes high mountain ranges that have accommodated the compressional stresses derived from the collision between the Eurasian and Indian Plates. The Gurvan Bogd, which is one of the main mountain ranges in the Gobi-Altai, is a restraining bend along the Bogd sinistral fault. Although surface ruptures did not form near the Artz Bogd during the Mw = 8.1 Gobi-Altai earthquake of 1957, it is still active, as evidenced by a growing topography (i.e., forebergs). Six foreberg ridges have formed in the foreland of the Artz Bogd, which are considered to be the result of surface deformation of alluvial fans due to thrusting. One stream has cut down to expose a foreberg tip, providing the opportunity to explore the slip evolution of the region. Here we map a growing fault structure related to blind thrusting. We identify five faulting events from an analysis of the outcrop and apply optically stimulated luminescence dating to the faulted sedimentary layers, yielding an average slip rate of 0.045 ± 0.007 m/kyr and an earthquake recurrence interval of 5.8 ± 0.5 kyr over the last ~32 kyr. Furthermore, the long-term (~600 kyr) uplift rate of the foreberg is 0.067 ± 0.007 m/kyr, as deduced by dividing the vertical displacement of the alluvial fan surface by the 10Be surface exposure ages of boulders on the fan. The discrepancy (20–30%) between these two deformation rates may be due to the different timescales they cover and an along-strike gradient in slip rate.

scholarly journals Paleo-earthquake Evidence and Earthquake Recurrence for Düzce Fault, Turkey

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tolga Komut ◽  
Ersin Karabudak
Keyword(s):  
Probability Distribution ◽  
Probability Distributions ◽  
Slip Rate ◽  
Recurrence Interval ◽  
Historical Earthquake ◽  
Earthquake Recurrence ◽  
Probability Curve ◽  
Recurrence Model ◽  
Sequential Event ◽  
Earthquake Recurrence Interval

Abstract Paleoseismological trenching was performed along the Düzce fault providing some preliminary insight about its seismogenic behavior. Dating was based on radiocarbon analysis of peat samples collected from the trenches and suggested seven earthquakes have occurred since 1740 BC. Integrating date constraints of events exposed in the trenches suggests a periodical earthquake recurrence model. According to a linear sequential event serial that has minimum misfit determined by considering the probability curve limits of the sample dates, the earthquake recurrence interval is between 384 and 460 years (or possibly between AD 394 and 400). A probability curve was also calculated for the date of the last earthquake (1999 Düzce earthquake) considering the probability distributions of sample dates based on the same event serial. This probability-distribution-based method, similarly, predicted that the 1999 Düzce earthquake occurred between 1933–2005 (± 36 years) with a 68 % probability. After this verification. Using this method, it was estimated that the next earthquake along the Düzce fault has a 68 % probability of occurring between 2328–2392. According to this calculation, the earthquake recurrence interval is about 391 ± 34 years with a 68 % probability and the AD 967 historical earthquake likely ruptured the Düzce fault. Assuming an average slip of 350 cm (the average slip of the 1999 earthquake), the slip rate was estimated to be between 8.7–11.2 mm/a.

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