Maneuvering Uncertainty: Scenario Planning in Belize

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francesca Castellani ◽  
Gerard Drenth ◽  
Lourdes Gallardo ◽  
Janelle Leslie ◽  
Lucia Martin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Strategic Planning ◽  
Scenario Planning ◽  
Traditional Process ◽  
Contextual Environment ◽  
Planning Methodology ◽  
Country Office

The IDB has been experimenting with the Scenario Planning methodology since 2019 in order to challenge and innovate its approach to strategic planning, as well as to enhance the agility with which it anticipates and adapts for the delivery of its mission. Belize was identified as a prime candidate that would benefit from testing and deployment of the Strategic Planning Exercise. This methodology will complement the preparation cycle work of the Country Strategy of the IDB with Belize for the period 2022-2026. It is also expected to challenge the traditional process by exploring uncertainty in the contextual environment, but more specifically, by considering those factors which may influence the IDBs work, but which are out of IDBs control. This paper presents two Scenarios for Belize's future towards 2030, as well as the process involved in developing these scenarios. The scenarios are dissected to identify their most salient themes and are followed by a discussion of potential implications, should the scenarios materialize. Also considered are steps the country may introduce presently in order to be better prepared for potential challenges and how the IDB, through the Country Office, may support building Belize's resilience for such scenarios.

scholarly journals Managing the survivor syndrome as scenario planning methodology … and it matters!

2019 ◽  
Vol 68 (4) ◽  
pp. 838-854
Author(s):  
Hong T.M. Bui ◽  
Vinh Sum Chau ◽  
Jacqueline Cox
Keyword(s):  
Organizational Performance ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Scenario Planning ◽  
Structured Interviews ◽  
Open Communication ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Survivor Syndrome ◽  
The Public ◽  
Planning Methods ◽  
Planning Methodology

PurposeThe importance of foresight is discussed in relation to why traditional scenario planning methodology is problematic at achieving it. The “survivor syndrome” is borrowed from the human resources literature and presented as a metaphor for foresight to illustrate how better “scenarios” can be achieved by understanding the syndrome better. A practice perspective is given on the use of a seven-theme framework as a method of interviewing survivors. The paper aims to discuss this issue.Design/methodology/approachThe paper draws from an empirical research that took place during the 2008 global financial crisis to illustrate the richness of the insights that would otherwise not be obtainable through scenario planning methods that do not involve “survivors.” In that research, semi-structured interviews were employed with key personnel at multiple levels of one private and one public organization that had undergone a redundancy process at the time of the crisis to explore its effect on the remaining workforce.FindingsThe “survivor syndrome” itself would be minimized if managers consider the feelings of survivors with more open communication. Survivors in private firms were found generally to experience anxiety, but are more likely to remain more motivated, than their counterparts in the public sector. These detailed insights create more accurate “scenarios” in scenario planning exercises.Originality/valueOrganizational performance can be better enhanced if the survivor syndrome can be better managed. In turn, scenario planning, as a form of organizational foresight, is better practiced through managing the survivor syndrome. Scenario planning methodology has proliferated well in the human resource management literature.

scholarly journals A change navigation-based, scenario planning process within a developing world context from an Afro-centric leadership perspective

2011 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Chris A. Geldenhuys ◽  
Theo H. Veldsman
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Strategic Planning ◽  
Developing Country ◽  
Planning Process ◽  
Organisational Change ◽  
Scenario Planning ◽  
Theory And Practice ◽  
Management Tool ◽  
Research Approach ◽  
Unique Contribution

Orientation: In the hyper turbulent context faced currently by organisations, more flexible strategic planning approaches, such as scenario planning which take into account a more comprehensive range of possible futures for an organisation, will position organisations better than conventional forecast and estimates that depend only on a single, linearly extrapolated, strategic response.Research purpose: This study aimed to investigate how scenario-based planning (a strictly cognitive management tool) can be combined with organisational change navigation (a practice addressing the emotionality of change) and how this integrated process should be aligned with the prerequisites imposed by a developing country context and an Afro-centric leadership perspective in order to make the process more context relevant and aligned.Motivation for the study: The integration of organisational change navigation with conventional scenario based planning, as well as the incorporation of the perquisites of a developing countries and an Afro-centric leadership perspective, will give organisations a more robust, holistic strategic management tool that will add significantly more value within a rapidly, radically and unpredictably changing world.Research design, approach and method: The adopted research approach comprised a combination of the sourcing of the latest thinking in the literature (the ‘theory’) as well as the views of seasoned practitioners of scenario planning (the ‘practice’) through an iterative research process, moving between theory and practice, back to practice and finally returning to theory in order to arrive at a validated expanded and enhanced scenario-based planning process which is both theory and practice ‘proof’.Main findings: A management tool incorporating the change navigation and the unique features of developing countries and Afro-centric leadership was formulated and empirically validated. This management tool is referred to as a change navigation based, scenario planning process (CNBSPP).Practical/managerial implications: CNBSPP is available for use by organisations wishing to apply a strategic planning tool that fits within a developing country context and an Afro-centric leadership approach.Contribution/value add: The research makes a unique contribution to the current level of knowledge by integrating two disciplines usually practised independently of one another, namely scenario-based planning and organisational change navigation. It also embedded the process into a different context of application, that is, the developed world as viewed from an Afro-centric leadership perspective.

Managing dynamic business environments: India’s future automotive industry

2014 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 309-331
Author(s):  
Christian Kuklinski ◽  
Roger Moser ◽  
Thomas Callarman
Keyword(s):  
Information Processing ◽  
Automotive Industry ◽  
Expert Panel ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Scenario Planning ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Business Environments ◽  
Information Processing Perspective ◽  
Planning Methodology ◽  
Political Economic

Purpose – This paper aims to examine from an information processing perspective how Delphi-based analyses can be used to overcome some challenges of dynamic business environments in emerging markets. Design/methodology/approach – Delphi-based, future-oriented approach utilizing scenario planning methodology based on real-time expert-panel data. Findings – Delphi-based analyses can indeed serve as an information processing aid to reduce uncertainty and equivocality in an emerging market. Originality/value – A multistage analysis approach integrating the political, economic, socio-cultural and technological-stakeholder framework to support and better structure managers’ information processing in an emerging market.

scholarly journals A VISÃO DE FUTURO POR MEIO DE CENÁRIOS PROSPECTIVOS: UMA FERRAMENTA PARA A ANTECIPAÇÃO DA INOVAÇÃO DISRUPTIVA

2012 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 102-131
Author(s):  
Ivan Domicio Da Silva Souza ◽  
Vania Passarini Takahashi
Keyword(s):  
Strategic Planning ◽  
Disruptive Innovation ◽  
Scenario Planning ◽  
Traditional Methods ◽  
Advantages And Disadvantages ◽  
Turbulent Environments ◽  
The Future ◽  
Future Events ◽  
Simple Activity

Future events are unknown, unexpected and even if forecasts may offer some estimation, there is no way to predict the behavior of unprecedented events. Therefore, looking into the future and drafting a strategy is not a simple activity. All this process is even more fastidious in a period of uncertainties, changes and world crises. However, a method named Scenario Planning may contribute to the formulation of strategies in turbulent environments. In this paper it is reviewed and consolidated the theories and reports in the literature, in order to elucidate the use of prospective scenarios as a tool to anticipate disruptive innovation. In this sense, it is presented and discussed some considerations about the origin of scenarios, the relation between scenarios and strategy, the typologies of scenarios, the tools for scenarios construction, the traditional methods in scenarios development and the advantages and disadvantages of this method. Indeed, scenario planning is a flexible and stimulative method which allows one to identify opportunities for innovation, so as to favor resilient strategic planning and future visioning in threatening environments.

A Support System for the Strategic Scenario Process

2010 ◽  
pp. 822-836 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hannu Kivijärvi ◽  
Markku Tuominen ◽  
Kalle Elfvengren ◽  
Kalle Piirainen ◽  
Samuli Kortelainen
Keyword(s):  
Strategic Planning ◽  
Single Point ◽  
Scenario Planning ◽  
Operating Conditions ◽  
Corporate Management ◽  
Corporate Strategies ◽  
Time Space ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Scenario Process ◽  
Traditional Sense

In modern day business, management of uncertainty in the environment has become a vital part in building success. The increasing speed of changes in the field of business and shortening product lifecycles are being discussed right up to the point where these concepts are becoming clichés (e.g., Teece, Pisano, & Shuen, 1997; Wiggins & Ruefli, 2005). The problem of uncertain conditions boils down to the question: how can a business develop reasonable strategies for steering the company in the long run (Mintzberg, 1994)? Strategic planning and decision making in some form or another is seen as an important part of modern corporate management. Traditional techniques and tools have been criticized for being too rigid from the perspective of managing the environment (Mintzberg, 1994; Schoemaker, 1995). In many instances, the analysis that fuels the development of corporate strategies is a snapshot of the surrounding world and does not perceive possible anomalies in the development of situations. In the traditional sense, management is all about knowing the relevant decision parameters and forecasting the result of each decision. In contrast, scenario planning has gained attention as a structured method for interfacing strategic planning with the evolving operating conditions (e.g., Mintzberg, Ahlstrand, & Lampel, 1998; Walsh, 2005). Scenarios are not a single point prediction of a defined time-space in some point of future, and multiple scenarios have conventionally been used to map the borders of plausible futures (Schwartz, 1996; Schoemaker, 1995; van der Heijden, Bradfield, George, Cairns, & Wright, 2002), which aims at avoiding problems that arise if carefully conducted forecast of future business proves to be faulty.

scholarly journals Using hybrid modelling to simulate and analyse strategies

2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 459-490 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yunfei Gu ◽  
Martin Kunc
Keyword(s):  
Strategic Planning ◽  
Strategic Management ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Scenario Planning ◽  
Simulation Software ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Personal Learning ◽  
Digital World ◽  
Modelling Framework ◽  
Modelling Effort

Purpose This paper aims to explore the applicability and strengths of proposing the three-paradigm hybrid simulation (HS) approach to developing and analysing strategies. The objective of the modelling effort is to conceptually illustrate its use in strategic planning by combining with the threat-opportunity-weakness-strength (TOWS) matrix, which builds a bridge between strategic management with the operations research community. The authors also aim to introduce a modelling framework to help model designers to apply HS to their own business issues. Design/methodology/approach The paper presents a process to develop a HS model associated with the development of strategies using the TOWS matrix. Findings After developing the model and testing four strategies, the best option for the supermarket to increase market share and sales is implementing the strength–opportunity strategy, which involves online shopping to adapt to the digital world. Research limitations/implications First, some modelling assumptions are used to simplify the development process, but they need further validation. Second, the real data collection is limited. Third, the personal learning edition of the simulation software is not a comprehensive version and has some limitations. Practical implications The hybrid model and the scenario planning introduced, in this study, could allow decision makers to rehearse the potential strategy before actual implementation. The framework is easy to implement to other business and industry. Originality/value This study links HS with strategic management, which has not been performed previously and evaluates the capability of HS in strategic planning. The functionality of the modelling platform has been tested for simulating a completely dynamic system.

scholarly journals Participatory Strategic Planning in a Public University

2015 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 140-148
Author(s):  
Isabela Papalardo ◽  
Maria Tereza Tomé de Godoy ◽  
Vinícius Sobreira Braga
Keyword(s):  
Public Sector ◽  
Strategic Planning ◽  
Public Universities ◽  
Public University ◽  
The Public ◽  
The University ◽  
Planning Methodology ◽  
Made In

The experiences of participatory strategic planning are still restricted in the public sector. There are few studies about it concerning public universities. Onward this belief, came the idea of creating a participatory strategic planning methodology appropriate for a Public University. The objective is to show how it was developed and implemented across the University. Initially was defined some concepts required to understand the methodology, and then presented how the method was developed and applied. Also shows the adjustments made in order to the make planning proper to a public university context

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