scholarly journals Monetary integration as a determinant of business cycles synchronization in the Euro Area

2017 ◽  
Vol 15 ◽  
pp. 7-16
Author(s):  
Jan Borowiec
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Monetary Integration

scholarly journals Political economy of the euro area crisis

2011 ◽  
Vol 58 (5) ◽  
pp. 593-604 ◽  
Author(s):  
Casimir Dadak
Keyword(s):  
Political Economy ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Business Cycles ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Monetary Integration ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Loss Of Control ◽  
Demand Side ◽  
Currency Area

For many experts the true motivation behind the introduction of a single currency in Europe is political rather than economic. This view is based on the fact that the euro area does not constitute an optimal currency area and, therefore, the costs of monetary integration are likely to outweigh the benefits. In particular, the loss of control over monetary policy and exchange rates make overcoming asymmetric demand-side shocks very painful. Moreover, the monetary union lacks a common fiscal authority that could help in smoothing out business cycles. The present crisis exposed these vulnerabilities and, unfortunately, so far economic policies adopted in the region have failed to rectify these shortcomings.

scholarly journals Determinants of Business Cycles Synchronization in the European Union and the Euro Area

Equilibrium ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 25-48 ◽  
Author(s):  
Krzysztof Beck
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Data Analysis ◽  
Business Cycles ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Panel Data Analysis ◽  
Monetary Integration ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Main Determinants ◽  
Optimum Currency ◽  
Of Greece

Further economic and monetary integration in Europe is currently on hold due to the crisis and even questions about the possible exile of Greece. Especially in those conditions, it is important, to see whether integrated Europe can handle future problems and if economic and monetary integration can be helpful or rather more problematic. The main aim of this paper is to check to what degree business cycles are synchronized in the Eurozone and the European Union and what the main determinants of business cycles synchronization are. To achieve this, the following steps have been taken. Firstly, we turn to optimum currency area theory, to see what conditions need to be met, if the European Union and the euro area can use common monetary policy to deal with some economic shocks. Then, all necessary methodological explanations are presented. Later on, the preliminary data analysis is employed to see how business cycles and their determinants were acting during the last 20 years. Finally, panel data analysis is used to check how those determinants actually influence business cycles synchronization. The main finding of the article is that even though business cycles synchronization has been progressing in the European Union and the euro area so does the specialization – divergence in production structure. This may result in less synchronized business cycles in the future.

scholarly journals Monetary integration issues in Latin America: A multivariate assessment

2008 ◽  
Vol 55 (3) ◽  
pp. 279-308
Author(s):  
Jean-Pierre Allegret ◽  
Alain Sand-Zantman
Keyword(s):  
Latin America ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Business Cycles ◽  
Latin American ◽  
Monetary Union ◽  
Monetary Integration ◽  
Integration Process ◽  
Common Shocks ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Latin American Countries

This paper assesses the monetary consequences of the Latin-American integration process. Over the period 1991-2007, we analyze a sample of five Latin-American countries focusing on the feasibility of a monetary union between L.A. economies. To this end, we study the issue of business cycle synchronization with the occurrence of common shocks. First, we assess the international disturbances influence on the domestic business cycles. Second, we analyze the impact of the adoption of different exchange rate regimes on the countries' responses to shocks. .

scholarly journals Post-communist countries of the EU and the euro: Dynamic linkages between exchange rates

2017 ◽  
Vol 67 (4) ◽  
pp. 511-538 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nikolaos Stoupos ◽  
Apostolos Kiohos
Keyword(s):  
Czech Republic ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Sovereign Debt ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
Monetary Integration ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Eu ◽  
Dynamic Linkages

The sovereign debt crisis of 2010 in the euro area significantly decelerated the monetary integration of the EU. The main purpose of this paper is to explore whether five post-communist member states of the EU are mature enough to adopt the euro. We used nominal exchange rates in the error correction model with asymmetric power ARCH (ECM-APARCH). Our results highlight that EU membership positively increased the impact of the euro on the currency of each of these countries in the short-run. In contrast, the long-term effect of the euro on each currency is negative for the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Croatia. Wholly different results were obtained for Poland and Romania. The APARCH model showed that the negative responses of the euro had a greater or neutral effect on the conditional variance of each currency instead of the positive responses. The debt crisis of the euro area had no impact on the dynamic linkages between the currencies. Our research concludes that Croatia, the Czech Republic, and Hungary are not ready to join the euro area in the near future. On the other hand, the currencies of Poland and Romania are already aligned with the fluctuations of the euro.

scholarly journals Export specialisation and output synchronisation in the euro area: The case of Southern countries

2016 ◽  
Vol 66 (4) ◽  
pp. 617-637
Author(s):  
Sofia Helena Gouveia
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Successful Implementation ◽  
European Monetary ◽  
Member States ◽  
Sectoral Structure ◽  
Optimum Currency ◽  
Southern European Countries ◽  
Of Greece

Business cycle synchronisation and the similarity in the sectoral structure of exports are key conditions for the successful implementation of common monetary policy, as shown by the theory of Optimum Currency Areas. This paper examines the degree of correlation between the aggregate euro area and 12 member states’ business cycles and the role of their exports specialisation dynamics vis-à-vis the euro area over the period 1981–2012, focusing in particular on Southern European countries. Overall, we find that since the inception of the European Monetary Union, the business cycles of euro area member states have been increasingly synchronised with the aggregate euro area cycle, with the exception of Greece. We also document that changes in the Greek, Portuguese, and Spanish export structures brought these countries closer to the euro area structure as a whole. Furthermore, we find a positive and significant relationship between the similarity of export structures and GDP cyclical correlations.

scholarly journals Business cycle (de)synchronization in the aftermath of the global financial crisis: implications for the Euro area

2015 ◽  
Vol 19 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
Stelios Bekiros ◽  
Duc Khuong Nguyen ◽  
Gazi Salah Uddin ◽  
Bo Sjö
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Business Cycles ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Wavelet Coherence ◽  
Before And After ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
The Cost ◽  
European Economies

AbstractThe introduction of Euro currency was a game-changing event intended to induce convergence of Eurozone business cycles on the basis of greater monetary and fiscal integration. The benefit of participating into a common currency area exceeds the cost of losing autonomy in national monetary policy only in case of cycle co-movement. However, synchronization was put back mainly due to country-specific differences and asymmetries in terms of trade and fiscal policies that became profound at the outset of the global financial crisis. As opposed to previous studies that are mostly based on linear correlation or causality modeling, we utilize the cross-wavelet coherence measure to detect and identify the scale-dependent time-varying (de)synchronization effects amongst Eurozone and the broad Euro area business cycles before and after the financial crisis. Our results suggest that the enforcement of an active monetary policy by the ECB during crisis periods could provide an effective stabilization instrument for the entire Euro area. However, as dynamic patterns in the lead-lag relationships of the European economies are revealed, (de)synchronization varies across different frequency bands and time horizons.

scholarly journals Euro Crisis and the EMU Institutional Reforms

Equilibrium ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 7-31 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jarosław Kundera
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
Essential Element ◽  
Monetary Integration ◽  
Banking Union ◽  
Fiscal Policies ◽  
Euro Crisis ◽  
Institutional Reforms ◽  
Political Union ◽  
The Eu

The main goal of this article is to find the answer for the question about the necessary reform to be undertaken in the EU to save the euro as a common currency. The author envisages three scenarios of the euro area’s future development. In his opinion, the most probable one are the institutional reforms in the euro area. The essential element of the reform is to establish a proper mix between the ECB’ monetary policy and fiscal policies in the member states. All proposed steps against the euro crisis are mutually correlated: monetary integration requires stricter fiscal integration, fiscal integration requires banking union, but banking union is going to require some form of a political union. This way the debt crisis in the euro area may present an opportunity to renew the strength of the European institutions.

scholarly journals Synchronization of business cycles in the selected European countries

2013 ◽  
Vol 60 (6) ◽  
pp. 759-773 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sasa Obradovic ◽  
Vladimir Mihajlovic
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Foreign Trade ◽  
Correlation Coefficient ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Pearson Correlation ◽  
Rank Correlation ◽  
Optimum Currency Area ◽  
Trade Volume ◽  
Currency Area ◽  
Optimum Currency

The synchronization of business cycles represents one of the conditions that countries have to fulfil to become part of an optimum currency area, as well as a condition for the efficient implementation of a common economic policy in these countries. This paper examines the extent to which Serbia and its neighbouring countries fulfil these conditions, taking the euro area as an optimum currency area. By applying the Hodrick-Prescott and the band-pass filters, as well as the Pearson correlation coefficient and the Spearman rank correlation coefficient, this paper examines the synchronization of business cycles in these countries. Taking Serbia as an example, the influence of the foreign trade volume between two countries on the similarity of their business cycles is tested. The results show a lower harmonization of business cycles in Serbia with those in the euro area, when compared with the selected neighbouring countries, and do not confirm the thesis on the influence of the foreign trade volume on the harmonization of business cycles.

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