scholarly journals Political economy of the euro area crisis

2011 ◽  
Vol 58 (5) ◽  
pp. 593-604 ◽  
Author(s):  
Casimir Dadak
Keyword(s):  
Political Economy ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Business Cycles ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Monetary Integration ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Loss Of Control ◽  
Demand Side ◽  
Currency Area

For many experts the true motivation behind the introduction of a single currency in Europe is political rather than economic. This view is based on the fact that the euro area does not constitute an optimal currency area and, therefore, the costs of monetary integration are likely to outweigh the benefits. In particular, the loss of control over monetary policy and exchange rates make overcoming asymmetric demand-side shocks very painful. Moreover, the monetary union lacks a common fiscal authority that could help in smoothing out business cycles. The present crisis exposed these vulnerabilities and, unfortunately, so far economic policies adopted in the region have failed to rectify these shortcomings.

Book Reviews

2015 ◽  
Vol 53 (2) ◽  
pp. 365-367
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Political Economy ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Latin American ◽  
Currency Crises ◽  
The United States ◽  
Exchange Rate Policy ◽  
Monetary Integration ◽  
The Political ◽  
Currency Policy

Benjamin J. Cohen of University of California, Santa Barbara reviews “Currency Politics: The Political Economy of Exchange Rate Policy”, by Jeffry A. Frieden. The Econlit abstract of this book begins: “Analyzes the politics surrounding exchange rates, including the influence of industries on the political process. Discusses the political economy of currency choice; a theory of currency policy preferences; the United States─from greenbacks to gold, 1862-79; the United States─silver threats among the gold, 1880-96; European monetary integration─from Bretton Woods to the euro and beyond; Latin American currency policy, 1970-2010; the political economy of Latin American currency crises; and the politics of exchange rates─implications and extensions.” Frieden is Professor of Government at Harvard University.

scholarly journals Post-communist countries of the EU and the euro: Dynamic linkages between exchange rates

2017 ◽  
Vol 67 (4) ◽  
pp. 511-538 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nikolaos Stoupos ◽  
Apostolos Kiohos
Keyword(s):  
Czech Republic ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Sovereign Debt ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
Monetary Integration ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Eu ◽  
Dynamic Linkages

The sovereign debt crisis of 2010 in the euro area significantly decelerated the monetary integration of the EU. The main purpose of this paper is to explore whether five post-communist member states of the EU are mature enough to adopt the euro. We used nominal exchange rates in the error correction model with asymmetric power ARCH (ECM-APARCH). Our results highlight that EU membership positively increased the impact of the euro on the currency of each of these countries in the short-run. In contrast, the long-term effect of the euro on each currency is negative for the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Croatia. Wholly different results were obtained for Poland and Romania. The APARCH model showed that the negative responses of the euro had a greater or neutral effect on the conditional variance of each currency instead of the positive responses. The debt crisis of the euro area had no impact on the dynamic linkages between the currencies. Our research concludes that Croatia, the Czech Republic, and Hungary are not ready to join the euro area in the near future. On the other hand, the currencies of Poland and Romania are already aligned with the fluctuations of the euro.

scholarly journals Business cycle (de)synchronization in the aftermath of the global financial crisis: implications for the Euro area

2015 ◽  
Vol 19 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
Stelios Bekiros ◽  
Duc Khuong Nguyen ◽  
Gazi Salah Uddin ◽  
Bo Sjö
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Business Cycles ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Wavelet Coherence ◽  
Before And After ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
The Cost ◽  
European Economies

AbstractThe introduction of Euro currency was a game-changing event intended to induce convergence of Eurozone business cycles on the basis of greater monetary and fiscal integration. The benefit of participating into a common currency area exceeds the cost of losing autonomy in national monetary policy only in case of cycle co-movement. However, synchronization was put back mainly due to country-specific differences and asymmetries in terms of trade and fiscal policies that became profound at the outset of the global financial crisis. As opposed to previous studies that are mostly based on linear correlation or causality modeling, we utilize the cross-wavelet coherence measure to detect and identify the scale-dependent time-varying (de)synchronization effects amongst Eurozone and the broad Euro area business cycles before and after the financial crisis. Our results suggest that the enforcement of an active monetary policy by the ECB during crisis periods could provide an effective stabilization instrument for the entire Euro area. However, as dynamic patterns in the lead-lag relationships of the European economies are revealed, (de)synchronization varies across different frequency bands and time horizons.

scholarly journals Synchronization of business cycles in the selected European countries

2013 ◽  
Vol 60 (6) ◽  
pp. 759-773 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sasa Obradovic ◽  
Vladimir Mihajlovic
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Foreign Trade ◽  
Correlation Coefficient ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Pearson Correlation ◽  
Rank Correlation ◽  
Optimum Currency Area ◽  
Trade Volume ◽  
Currency Area ◽  
Optimum Currency

The synchronization of business cycles represents one of the conditions that countries have to fulfil to become part of an optimum currency area, as well as a condition for the efficient implementation of a common economic policy in these countries. This paper examines the extent to which Serbia and its neighbouring countries fulfil these conditions, taking the euro area as an optimum currency area. By applying the Hodrick-Prescott and the band-pass filters, as well as the Pearson correlation coefficient and the Spearman rank correlation coefficient, this paper examines the synchronization of business cycles in these countries. Taking Serbia as an example, the influence of the foreign trade volume between two countries on the similarity of their business cycles is tested. The results show a lower harmonization of business cycles in Serbia with those in the euro area, when compared with the selected neighbouring countries, and do not confirm the thesis on the influence of the foreign trade volume on the harmonization of business cycles.

Monetary integration in crisis: how well do existing theories explain the predicament of EMU?

2013 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 37-48 ◽  
Author(s):  
Waltraud Schelkle
Keyword(s):  
Collective Action ◽  
Crisis Management ◽  
Monetary Union ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Policy Coordination ◽  
Critical Assessment ◽  
Monetary Integration ◽  
Macroeconomic Policies ◽  
Currency Area ◽  
Collective Action Problems

Three theories or rationales can be invoked to explain the formation of the monetary union as well as its policy architecture. One sees its rationale as forming an optimal currency area, another as making macroeconomic policies credibly stability-oriented and a last one as overcoming collective action problems of mutually beneficial policy coordination. Each theory also implies an explanation for why the euro area is in crisis now. The article contains a critical assessment of these theories, with a view to how they have informed crisis management of the euro area but have also failed so far to stabilize the monetary union effectively.

Is the Euro Working? The Euro and European Labour Markets

2004 ◽  
Vol 24 (2) ◽  
pp. 147-168 ◽  
Author(s):  
STEPHEN J. SILVIA
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Monetary Union ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
European Monetary Union ◽  
Structural Adjustment ◽  
Labour Markets ◽  
Fiscal Consolidation ◽  
European Monetary ◽  
Currency Area ◽  
Made In

Now that time has passed since the introduction of the euro as a commercial currency, it is possible to assess many arguments made in the abstract during the 1990s about European monetary union. This article shows that the euro zone still falls short as an optimal currency area in most respects. In particular, it undertakes an empirical analysis of the labour market and finds no progress toward flexibility or integration. These results challenge assertions of ‘endogenous currency area’ proponents that the euro area would become optimal ‘after the fact’, and that labour markets would serve as the principal avenue of adjustment. Instead, a ‘rigidity trap’ has developed in the euro area, consisting of relatively tight monetary policy, forced fiscal consolidation, and a risk of deflation in some economies. These conditions have compounded the difficulties of structural adjustment in European labour markets.

Optimum Currency Area Theory and Business Cycle Convergence in EMU

2016 ◽  
pp. 67-91
Author(s):  
Emin Ertürk ◽  
Derya Yılmaz ◽  
Işın Çetin
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Business Cycles ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
Optimum Currency Area ◽  
Currency Area ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
The Times ◽  
Optimum Currency ◽  
Over Time

Which countries should be in Economic and Monetary Union (EMU)? This question has been debated frequently in the aftermath of the Sovereign Debt Crisis. But this has been asked in every stages of European integration. This discussion has rooted in the Optimum Currency Area (OCA) theory. The theory simply reveals that; if the countries have similar business cycles, one size fits all monetary policy would able to address the problems of member countries. Otherwise, no single monetary policy could be able to satisfy all members. In this respect, we test the business cycle convergence in EMU12 countries over time and we have also analyzed the effects of crisis on this convergence. We have found that business cycles converged over time in these countries. This convergence rises in the times of crisis as they slump together after the shock, but falls sharply in the aftermath of the crisis. This reflects the divergent recovery paths of the countries and put a pressure on single monetary policy especially after crisis.

scholarly journals ANALYSIS OF THE ECB MONETARY POLICY MATCH FOR THE NEEDS OF THE EURO AREA COUNTRIES NEEDS

Ekonomika ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 92 (3) ◽  
pp. 41-58
Author(s):  
Tomas Reichenbachas
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Taylor Rule ◽  
Currency Area ◽  
The Face ◽  
Asymmetric Shock ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
The One

Abstract. In this paper, using the Taylor rule (Taylor, 1993), the European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy in 2000–2012, as well as individual interest rate needs of the euro area (EA) countries are analysed. It is assumed that the estimated Taylor rule interest rates are optimal for individual members. We have analysed whether the actual ECB interest rates and the calculated rates are different and have become more balanced towards individual countries’ needs. The work focuses attention on the last period (2008–2012) when the EA faced economic problems and an asymmetric shock. The analysis shows controversial results: on the one hand, the interest deviation mean decreases (just a little), but an increasing gap between individual needs can be seen: some countries are becoming increasingly divorced from the general EA needs. It makes them very vulnerable, and there is a risk that these countries in the face of asymmetric challenges can be “left behind” by the ECB focusing on the EA as a whole. Also, in this paper, the stationarity of the calculated deviations is analysed to help understand their nature. This approach is new, and the author is unaware of similar works. Analysis of the optimal interest rate dynamics has revealed that Germany needed the interest rates that were opposite to the needs of Spain and Greece and susceptible to divergence, so this led to the ECB difficulties in determining the proper interest for all countries’ needs. The EA as a currency area is most optimal for Belgium, Cyprus, Finland, France, Italy, and the Netherlands from the interest rate setting perspective.Key words: the Taylor rule, optimal monetary policy, asymmetric shocks, optimal currency area

scholarly journals BUSINESS CYCLES SYNCHRONISATIONS IN THE BALTIC COUNTRIES

2020 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 127-141
Author(s):  
Arvydas Kregždė
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Nordic Countries ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
External Shocks ◽  
Real Business Cycles ◽  
Financial Variables ◽  
Baltic Countries ◽  
The Baltic ◽  
First Time

Purpose – The purpose of the paper is to investigate the level of real business cycles synchronisation between the Baltic and the Nordic countries and between the Baltic countries and the euro area. Research methodology – Wavelet analysis was employed to evaluate the level of synchronisation for different periods and time. Quarterly data from 1995 Q2 to 2019 Q4 was used. Findings – We discover the influence of several essential events in economies of the Baltic countries on the synchronisation: accession to the EU in 2004, the introduction of the euro in the Baltic countries and some external shocks. Research limitation – A lack of reliable long-term data from the Baltic countries does not allow performing calculation for other important financial variables. Practical implications – Results of the research are important for forecasting and implementing flexible economic policies of the Baltic countries. Originality/Value – Business cycles synchronisation between the Baltic countries themselves and between the Baltic countries, the Nordic countries and the euro area countries across time and various frequency dimensions was investigated for the first time.

Brauchen wir eine neue Weltwährungsordnung?

1996 ◽  
Vol 45 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Renate Ohr ◽  
Otmar Issing ◽  
Friedrich Thießen
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Economic Policy ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Political Action ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
International Monetary System ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Monetary System ◽  
Policy Goals ◽  
High Volatility

AbstractThe economic policy forum discusses the question of whether we need a new international monetary system. Renate Ohr argues that various interventionist policy measures such as fixed exchange rates or a tobin-tax are inappropriate in order to avoid high volatility. Instead of a new international monetary system, a co-operative system which is flexible enough to react to disturbances and unequal developments is proposed by the author. This includes a better information basis about national economic policy goals and strategies. The existing “non-system” allows for sufficient flexibility to adjust to changing economic conditions. The role of the IMF should be strengthened by intensifying its function of surveillance and using it more as a forum for international co-operation.Otmar Issing goes even further than Ohr by rejecting any change to the existing international monetary system. He claims that flexible exchange rates neither had a negative impact on international trade nor on inflation. Furthermore he fears that a reform would result in the adoption of instruments reducing the elasticity of the system and its scope for adjustment. If politicians still demand political action, they should start with disciplining their national policies. In particular, the author suggests that they adopt a more steady monetary policy.Friedrich Thießen claims that national emotions prevent states from standardising different monetary areas within bi- or multilateral systems. Therefore he suggests a supranational monetary policy which makes it easier for states to give up sovereignty. Such a policy should include the following elements: neutrality towards nationally oriented economic policies, locational neutrality, innovative neutrality, hedge neutrality and profit neutrality. An international body such as the International Monetary Fund should be in charge of the monetary policy.

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