Selected indicators of life expectancy, childbearing, age dependency ratio and mortality

2012 ◽  
Vol 51 (4II) ◽  
pp. 519-541
Author(s):  
Rizwan Ul Haq Rizwan Ul Haq

As an outcome of demographic transition the composition of the world’s population has changed. In turn percent share of population above 60 years of age will be doubled from 11 percent in 2010 to 22 percent in 2050 worldwide [United Nations (2011)]. Those countries which encountered demographic transition early are now facing the problem of ageing societies. In developing countries, demographic transition started late, and they have not yet encountered the problem of a large proportion of elderly in the population. However, in the coming years with the high proportion of elderly, these countries will also have to face the problems with their poor economic situation and burden of diseases. Therefore it will be a difficult task for developing countries to combat the problem of the large proportion of elderly in the population in the coming years if concrete steps have not been taken at this time. Pakistan, where demographic transition started in the 90’s, has almost six percent (more than nine million) of the population above 60 years of age in the year 2005, and it will rise to 16.5 percent (48 million) in the year 2050. If we look at the ageing index, which is the number of persons 60 years of age or above per hundred persons below 15 years of age, the value was 15.9 in 2005. It will rise to 29 in 2025 and further to 75.5 in the year 2050 due to decline in fertility and steady increase in life expectancy. The old-age dependency ratio has also increased from seven in 2005 to nine in 2025 and will reach 16 in the year 2050 [UN (2006)].


2012 ◽  
Vol 18 (18) ◽  
pp. 55-68
Author(s):  
Jolanta Kurkiewicz ◽  
Oskar Knapik

Abstract.The aim of the paper is to demonstrate differences and similarities in population structures of the poviats of Małopolskie voivodship in the years 2010‒2030, with particular attention to population ageing. To describe the ageing process two types of indicators are used, namely conventional and prospective measures. As conventional ones we assume the percentage of the population aged 65 and over, and the old-age dependency ratio expressed as the number of persons aged 65 and over per 100 persons aged 20‒64. The same aspects of population ageing are expressed by a new group of measures based on a fresh concept for measuring age, the so-called prospective age. Unlike chronological (retrospective) age, prospective age takes into account the changes in life expectancy that occur in the period under consideration. Using the data coming from Demographic Years Book 2011, and from Demographic Projection 2008‒2011 (www.stat.gov.pl) some types of population ageing patterns in Małopolskie voivodship by poviats until 2030 are demonstrated. They count both differences in population ageing of poviats in Małopolskie voivodship and the dynamics of this process in view of conventional and prospective measures. The general features of demographic ageing in Małopolskie voivodship in 2010‒2030 are formulated in conclusions.


2018 ◽  
Vol 74 (3) ◽  
pp. 267-283
Author(s):  
Radosław Murkowski

The author proposes a technique of calculating the postulated minimum upper limit of the productive age, which uses potential demography methods. The technique is based on the postulate that the total number of years to live after the productive age for the whole population should not be higher than the total years to live in the productive age. This method accounts for both the length of the life expectancy and the population age structure. The minimum upper limit of the productive age is the highest for the population with a long life expectancy and high age dependency ratio. The results obtained using this technique for calculations in all European Union member states were compared and related to the statutory pension ages.


Stanovnistvo ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 50 (1) ◽  
pp. 45-68 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mirjana Devedzic ◽  
Jelena Stojilkovic

While the last century was the century of world population growth, according to demographers, the XXI century will be century of population aging. Statistics undoubtedly show that number of elderly will continue it?s growth in the future. If old age is seen as period of life with reduced physical and mental capabilities and increased disability, and demographic aging as increase of dependent population, trends are quite disturbing, at least in certain societal segments. In developed countries, this population category is no longer treated as passive or as a "burden of society" and efforts are made for better social inclusion of older people. In contrast to growing interest in this phenomenon, the concepts that define the aging of the population remained stagnant. The aim of this paper is to introduce into domestic literature the term "prospective age" as a dynamic category which is more affected with socio-historical conditions, not only with biological as traditional definition of aging suggested. Papers written by Sanderson and Scherbov offer new methodological options for study of population aging, because it takes into account the biometric rather than chronological approach. Calculation of prospective years is a simple operation that requires pair of the same number of remained life expectancy from life tables for two different periods (the year of concern is index, and the one we are comparing with is standard year), so that phrase "40s is the new 30s" or "70s the new 60s" gets scientific foundation. Average remaining years of life represent a realistic indicator suggesting increased capacity, activity and vitality of individuals, which is due to accepted demographic parameters still considered old. ?Prospective threshold? is defined as the age when life expectancy falls below 15 years (it is subjective choice made by Sanderson and Scherbov, which is also used in this paper) and during the elaboration of these ideas three demographic indicators was constructed, redefined more precisely, based on prospective age: (prospective) share of the elderly, (prospective) median age and (prospective) old age dependency ratio. With respect to the remaining years of life in the calculation of demographic aging, world?s population will be in rejuvenation process by 2035, longer and more intense than defined by proportion of the elderly. Prospective approach found that longer life expectancy in developing countries is not only a result of the decrease in infant and child mortality, but also the decrease of the old population mortality. Data used in this paper are from period life tables and censuses, for period 1953-2010. Prospective age threshold in Serbia was always higher than retrospective age (60,17 in 1953 .and 63,15 in 2010. for total population) , or the proportion of people with a life expectancy less than 15 years has consistently been higher than the share of people older than 65 years (17.86% vs. 16.92% in 2010). According to prospective criteria, differences between men and women almost do not existent, so that it calls into question the widely accepted feminization of the elderly. The same conclusion stands when we discuss (prospective) median age, population is older using prospective (47,15 years) than traditional (41.41) indicator in 2010, also, compared with rest of the region or with more developed countries, prospective median age is higher in Serbia. Also, prospective old-age dependency ratio is higher than conventional one during analyzed period. Prospective concept and amendments are necessary in public policy, especially pension and health care system, because in combination with traditional approaches can create more justified distribution for older and younger generations.


2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 26
Author(s):  
João Leitão ◽  
João Capucho

This empirical study analyses the effects of institutional, economic, and socio-economic determinants on total entrepreneurial activity in the contexts of developed and developing countries. It fills a gap in the literature, regarding the lack of empirical studies about the relationships among entrepreneurial activity, corruption, commercial freedom, economic growth, innovativeness, inward foreign direct investment, unemployment, households, and non-profit institutions serving households (NPISHs)’ final consumption expenditure, age dependency ratio, education index, and life expectancy at birth. The empirical application uses annual panel data for the 2003–2018 period, with a total sample of 21 countries, analysed in a two-stage empirical application, including preliminary analysis and a quantile regression model. New empirical evidence is provided, revealing a significantly positive role played by commercial freedom, innovativeness, inward foreign direct investment, households, and NPISHs’ final consumption expenditure and education on entrepreneurial activity. Corruption, unemployment, age dependency ratio, and life expectancy at birth have a significantly negative influence on entrepreneurial activity. In terms of implications, greater government control is recommended, in order to foster the quality of nations’ institutional environment. Additionally, suggested is the launch of new incentives to stimulate research and development activities aimed at registering international patents with a global impact, sourced from new ventures and transnational collaboration.


2009 ◽  
Vol 41 (6) ◽  
pp. 705-745 ◽  
Author(s):  
RAJESH K. GAUTAM

SummaryCrow's index is widely used for indirect quantitative estimation of natural selection using birth and death rates. The present investigation is based on 179 studies among 144 different endogamous communities belonging to nineteen states and six geographical regions of India, categorized into six social groups. These studies appeared in 33 different years over six decades (1956 to 2007). The secular trend in Crow's index (It) and its mortality and fertility components (Im and If) shows a gradual decline in It and radical shift in the relative contributions of Im and If. Before 1990 the opportunity for natural selection was mainly determined by differential pre-reproductive mortality (Im), whereas after 1990 it has been determined by differential fertility (If). To find out the covariates of It, Im and If sixteen socio-demographic variables were considered, and nine were found to be significantly correlated with It: total dependency ratio, decadal growth rate 1991–2001, young age dependency ratio, crude death rate, total fertility rate, child mortality rate, under-5 mortality rate, old age dependency ratio and decadal growth rate 1981–1991. On the basis of multivariate stepwise regression analysis, female literacy emerged as one of the most important predictors of It. The declining trend of It, Im and If shows that the Indian population is passing through the demographic transition.


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