Fiscal sustainability and low interest rates: what an indicator can(’t) tell

The indicator that is commonly used to assess the long-term fiscal sustainability of public finances in EU member states (“S2”) is also defined if government borrowing rates are assumed to be permanently lower than the growth rate of GDP. Under these circumstances, however, it no longer provides a reliable orientation for fiscal policy. I illustrate these findings based on simulations prepared for the Fifth Sustainability Report published by the German Federal Ministry of Finance. In addition, I discuss the interpretation of the indicator in a low-interest environment and the assumption that relevant interest rates may continue to be low if there are substantial challenges for fiscal sustainability, e.g., through demographic ageing.

Emergence of Protests During The COVID-19 Pandemic: Quantitative Models To Explore The Contributions of Societal Conditions

The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic has led to a resurgence of protests. Various societal conditions of social systems, such as economic stability, demographic ageing, and political elites, are often associated to the emergence of civil resistance movements. Several qualitative and quantitative models have been developed to analyse the relationship between societal conditions and the emergence of protests. The existing models use the underlying assumptions that these conditions operate in similar time-scales. However, the analysis of social systems also shows the importance of considering explicitly the inherent time-scales particularly slow-fast dynamics. The sudden and dramatic disruptive force of the pandemic has yield fine-grained data sets that can be used to better grasp the different dynamics of this social phenom. This paper proposes an integrated approach to explore the relationship between societal conditions and the emergence of protests in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. First, a literature based causal-loop-diagram is constructed to conceptualise the emergence of civil resistance as a result of intertwined dynamics. Based on the derived factors in the literature study, a data set is constructed to enable this analysis. Furthermore, by means of statistical and computational modelling we conduct a quantitative analysis in which we compare the emergence of protests for 27 countries during the pandemic. Also based on the factors found in literature we have constructed a system dynamics model that explicitly models the development of societal strains and social mobilisation in order to provide a better quantitative explanation of the emergence of protests. We found that while fast-changing factors are better estimators for ‘when’ civil resistance emerges, slow-changing factors are better estimators of ‘how’ civil resistance manifests itself in terms of the relative intensity of the protests in specific countries.

Industrial Structure and Economic Resilience of Non-Metropolitan Regions: An Empirical Base for the Smart Specialization Policies

In this paper, we aim to describe and explain the regional disparities in economic resilience in Slovakia in the period 1997–2017. We focus on the effects of economic structure in combination with the vertical (potential accessibility) and horizontal geographical location. Since the early 1990s, Slovak (non-)metropolitan regions exhibited deep changes in the sectoral structure of the economy that were followed by sharp unemployment increases. Due to the FDI-fueled economic growth in the last two decades, however, considerable progress in regional economic growth and reduction in unemployment were was recorded. Therefore, Slovak non-metropolitan regions provide valuable lessons for the analysis of regional economic resilience in a long-term period. We ask if, and to what extent were, the prospects of regional renewal after economic crises associated with the geographical location, economic diversity, firm size and sectoral structure of the economy. We employed spatial regression models to test the effects of the potential accessibility, horizontal geographical location and industrial diversity, and sectoral (agriculture, manufacturing) and firm size structure. The dependent variable, Economic Resilience, was measured by the Regional Development Index, combining the indicators of demographic ageing, net migration, income per capita and registered unemployment rate. Potential accessibility and horizontal geographical location were the key predictors of regional economic resilience. Districts with tertiarized and diversified industrial and firm size structures scored, on average, higher in RDI than specialized districts with large firms and/or a high share of agriculture/manufacturing in total employment.

Active Aging and the Mattheus Effect

While active ageing has been discursivized in international organizations and among researchers as a major means to combat the challenges of demographic ageing, this study aims to make a critical-theoretical and empirical assessment of the active ageing concept. It falls into three parts, the first showing how the conceptual framework of active ageing is undertheorized, lacks conceptual and analytical clarity, and that the theoretical framework does not hold clear ideas regarding the factors conditioning active ageing. The second part investigates the main patterns and structuring mechanisms of active ageing in an outcome perspective using Danish data subject to a correspondence analysis. Here, a Matthew Effect of accumulated advantage is found; that is, older adults who are blessed in one sphere of life are also blessed in others, and such inequalities in old age are the outcomes of social life biographies (i.e., cumulative advantages/disadvantages over the life course). Although nursed by the political system, EU ideas about active ageing are only weakly translated into policies and programs. Part three discusses some of the reasons for this, one obviously being that active ageing is elusive and lacks well-defined cause-and-effect descriptions. Another reason is that the concept has been developed in global elite networks that are quite distant from policymakers; at least in a decentralized political system like the Danish welfare state.

VIABLE HEALTH FUNDING IN TIME OF DEMOGRAPHIC AGEING

In the past several decades a new challenge has arisen, and it refers to the rapid demographic ageing of the population in developed and developing countries, quite opposite to the previous understanding of overpopulated planet. Increase in the older population brings its implications to different segments of the society, and the national health system and its funding is one of them. This paper tends to analyze if there is a relationship between the government health expenditure and the increase in the older population in fourteen countries from the European Union that are experiencing most intense process of demographic ageing. Also, other possible determinants of the health expenditures are included, such as government social spending, gross domestic product per capita and dummy variable to estimate the effect of the global recession onto the health expenditure.

Parties

This chapter focuses attention on short-term and long-term impacts of political parties on social policy in advanced democracies. According to a wide variety of both comparative research and in-depth country studies, partisan effects have influenced the structure and expansion of the welfare state in the post-Second World War period to a large extent. Particularly strong have been these effects in the ‘Golden Age’ of the welfare state in the 1960s, 1970s, and in some countries also in the 1980s—mainly due to policy choices of leftist and Christian democratic parties. More mixed has been the explanatory power of partisan theory after the ‘Golden Age’. In view of critical circumstances, such as a major fiscal crisis of the state and the pressure generated by demographic ageing, but also due to massive changes in their social constituencies, a considerable number of pro-welfare state parties accepted recalibration and cutbacks in social policy in order to consolidate budgets.

Addressing Age Discrimination in Employment: a report on the findings of Australian Research Council Project DE170100228

This project aimed to research the effectiveness of Australian age discrimination laws. While demographic ageing necessitates extending working lives, few question the effectiveness of Australian age discrimination laws in supporting this ambition. This project drew on mixed methods and comparative UK experiences to offer empirical and theoretical insights into Australian age discrimination law. It sought to create a normative model for legal reform in Australia, to inform public policy and debate and improve responses to demographic ageing, providing economic, health and social benefits.

Wages of Skilled Migrant and Native Employees in Germany: New Light on an Old Issue

The German Council of Economic Experts (GCEE) argues for a labor market-driven immigration of skilled migrants into Germany to overcome a decline in workforce due to demographic ageing. We pick up this current debate on skilled immigration by analyzing the migrant-native wage differential for skilled workers in Germany and consider various information on firms. Our results indicate that the wage gap is mainly explained by observable characteristics, especially labor market experience and firm characteristics. However, we find lower rewards for migrants’ labor market experience than for natives (flatter experience curves). Our results show that these differences in experience curves become negligible in the long run. Moreover, we reveal firms’ wage-setting policies: Firms evaluate a worker's education independent of migration backgrounds, as migrants possess the same productivity levels as their German counterparts in the same occupations and task levels. Due to Germany's heterogeneous immigration structure, we are able to compare the results for different migrant subgroups and, thus, derive valuable insights into the migrant-native wage structure with a wide reach beyond Germany. This article adds to current debates in various industrialized countries with demographic ageing patterns, as it focuses on an important group for domestic labor markets: skilled immigrants.

The management of multi-morbidity in elderly patients: Ready yet for precision medicine in intensive care?

There is ongoing demographic ageing and increasing longevity of the population, with previously devastating and often-fatal diseases now transformed into chronic conditions. This is turning multi-morbidity into a major challenge in the world of critical care. After many years of research and innovation, mainly in geriatric care, the concept of multi-morbidity now requires fine-tuning to support decision-making for patients along their whole trajectory in healthcare, including in the intensive care unit (ICU). This article will discuss current challenges and present approaches to adapt critical care services to the needs of these patients.

Theoretical Challenges and Social Inequalities in Active Ageing

Active ageing has been discussed in international political organisations and among researchers as a major means for combatting the challenges of demographic ageing. This study aims to make a critical-theoretical and empirical assessment of the active ageing concept, challenging the active ageing discourse from two different angles. First, an assessment of the theoretical framework of active ageing shows that the conceptual framework is undertheorised, lacks conceptual and analytical clarity, and fails to propose clear contributing factors and barriers. The second part presents an empirical analysis of the concept of active ageing guided by the following research question: is active ageing realistic—and for whom? Using Danish data subjected to multiple correspondence analysis, it is found that active ageing at the individual level is preconditioned by health, education, having good finances, etc. Furthermore, a Matthew effect of accumulated advantage is found; that is, older adults who are blessed in one sphere of life are also blessed in others, and such inequalities in old age are the outcomes of social life biographies (i.e., cumulative advantages/disadvantages over the life course). Thus, empirical findings indicate that active ageing may be an elusive goal for a large segment of older adults.