Macroeconomic Determinants Of Non-Fuel Primary Commodity Price Movements

2011 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Raymond Swaray
Keyword(s):  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Commodity Price ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Effective Exchange ◽  
Modelling Techniques ◽  
Macroeconomic Determinants ◽  
Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
The Relationship

<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; margin: 0in 0.5in 0pt; tab-stops: .5in 1.0in 1.5in 2.0in 2.5in 3.0in 3.5in 4.0in 4.5in 5.0in 5.5in 6.0in;"><span style="mso-ansi-language: EN-GB;" lang="EN-GB"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">This paper uses cointegration and error correction modelling techniques to examine the relationship between non-fuel commodity prices and world macroeconomic and monetary variables. The results show that fluctuations in industrial production of OECD countries, real effective exchange rate of the U.S. dollar and oil prices have significant short- and long- run impact on non-fuel commodity prices. In addition, there is evidence of highly significant positive correlation between the index of non-fuel commodity prices and crude oil price. This implies non-fuel commodity-dependent developing countries that are net importers of oil can derive little benefit from upward movements in commodity prices.</span></span></span></p>

scholarly journals Econometric Analysis of Determinants of Real Effective Exchange Rate in Nigeria (1960-2015)

2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 62-80 ◽  
Author(s):  
Waheed Ibrahim
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Terms Of Trade ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Effective Exchange ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Effective Exchange Rate

Abstract This study investigates the determinants of real effective exchange rate in Nigeria for the period between 1960 and 2015 using the vector error correction mechanism to separate long run from the short run fundamentals. The findings from the regression estimates revealed that; terms of trade, openness of the economy, net capital inflow and total government expenditure were the major long run determinants of real effective exchange rate in the country while variables such as; broad money supply (M2), nominal effective exchange rate, structural adjustment program dummy, June 12 crisis and change to civil rule dummies were revealed as the major short run determinants of exchange rate in Nigeria between 1960 and 2015. The study concludes by recommending that since the major variable of terms of trade (crude oil price) is out of the government control, the effect of shocks due to the fluctuations of crude oil price can be minimized by shifting the economy from a mono-product nation and diversify the economy to increase productive capacity. Also, the change to civil rule dummy used in the study revealed that the system has not been friendly with the country’s real effective exchange rate, thus needing to review the system and bringing out all negative activities there in to ensure Nigeria’s currency appreciation. Guided openness is also suggested to avert the danger that unguided trade liberalization may bring into the country.

Some dynamic macroeconomic perspectives for India’s economic growth

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 641-658
Author(s):  
Matiur Rahman ◽  
Anisul Islam
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Effective Exchange ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Effective Exchange Rate

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to study impacts of changes in crude oil price, money supply, fiscal deficit and effective exchange rate on India’s economic growth (expressing all variables in real term). Design/methodology/approach First, a simple macroeconomic model is formulated to this effect. Next, linear autoregressive distributed lag procedure and vector error-correction model are applied for growth empirics. Annual data are used from 1977 through 2015. Findings Rises in real crude oil price and monetized real fiscal deficits have negative short-run and long-run effects on real economic growth. Increase in real money supply and real effective exchange rate appreciation helps promote real economic growth in both short run and long run. In all cases, there is evidence of net interactive positive feedback effects among the variables in the short run. Real effective exchange rate appreciation dampens exports, but it is helpful to imports of capital goods and crude oil that contribute to economic growth. So, the net effect on the economy may be conjecturally positive. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this paper is unique because of the formulation of macro-economic model pertaining to the topic and its subsequent empirical verification. Moreover, this paper seems more comprehensive than some other studies, cited in the literature review.

scholarly journals Macroeconomic Determinants of Crude Oil Demand in Ghana

2018 ◽  
Vol 19 (4) ◽  
pp. 873-888
Author(s):  
Eric Fosu Oteng-Abayie ◽  
Prosper Awuni Ayinbilla ◽  
Maame Esi Eshun
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Oil Refinery ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Effective Exchange ◽  
Oil Demand ◽  
Macroeconomic Determinants ◽  
Effective Exchange Rate

This article investigates the macroeconomic determinants of crude oil demand (consumption) in Ghana with annual data from 1980 to 2013. The study applied the vector error correction model (VECM) to estimate the long-run and short-run determinants of crude oil demand in Ghana within the study period. The long-run estimates reveal that price of crude oil, real GDP per capita, real effective exchange rate and energy saving technical progress are significant long-run determinants of crude oil demand. The results also indicate that crude oil demand in Ghana is income and price inelastic. Crude oil price has a positive long-run effect indicating the virtual lack of substitutes and overdependence on crude oil for energy generation and economic activities in Ghana. Based on the variance decomposition and impulse response analyses, the study also found that positive shocks from real effective exchange rate had a dominant and positive impact on crude oil demand in Ghana. We suggest among others that Ghana vigorously explore alternative and sustainable energy sources to curtail the overdependence on crude oil, strategically hedge against volatilities in the exchange rate market, and revive the country’s oil refinery to refine her own crude oil to reduce importation.

An Empirical Investigation of India’s Outward Foreign Direct Investment: A Macro Perspective

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 79-88
Author(s):  
Dikshita Kakoti
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Outward Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Fdi Inflows ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
Effective Exchange ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Effective Exchange Rate

Since 1990, globalization of Indian economy led to a speedy growth of foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows and simultaneously outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) also shows an increasing trend. However, India’s OFDI has attracted a little attention from the researchers and they have considered the OFDI in terms of commitments or approved equities. The motivation of this article is to investigate the India’s macro factors influencing actual OFDI flows from India by empirically recognizing four factors, namely gross domestic product, inward FDI, real effective exchange rate, and real interest rate over the period 1980–2016. The study has used Augmented Dicky-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips–Perron (PP) Unit root tests for checking the stationarity of the variable of the model. Later on, autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) model and error correction mechanism is used for testing the long-run as well as short-run dynamics of the model. The result shows that all the selected variables have positive and significant influence on India’s outward investment flows.

scholarly journals Currency Depreciation, Trade Balance and Intra-Industry Trade Interactions in Turkey’s OECD Trade

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mehmet Demiral
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Adjustment Process ◽  
Industry Trade ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Effective Exchange ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Effective Exchange Rate

<p>This study re-examines the determinants of Turkey’s trade balance in its manufactures trade with 33 OECD-member countries for the short-run and the long-run. Unlike other studies, in the relationships we also control the moderating effects of the availability of import substitutes proxied by intra-industry trade. We analyze quarterly aggregated time-series data of the period spanning from 1998.QI to 2015.QIII, following the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to the cointegration and the error correction modeling. Estimation results reveal that real effective exchange rate, together with domestic and foreign incomes are still among the core determinants of Turkey’s trade balance in the manufacturing sectors. There is no significant impact of domestic final oil prices that also include all the taxes on gasoline. The trade balance depends on domestic income negatively and the aggregated income of the OECD countries positively. The finding that real depreciation of Turkish lira against to those of Turkey’s OECD trade partners improves trade balance in both the short-run and the long-run, indicates no evidence of J-curve adjustment process. Unsurprisingly, the intra-industry trade seems to be an important factor that moderates the elasticities of trade balance to its determinants, especially to real effective exchange rate and domestic income. Overall results underline the importance of import-substitution capability besides the export-oriented production to ease the longstanding large trade deficits for Turkey.</p><strong></strong>

scholarly journals Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate and Misalignment: The Sierra Leone Perspective

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 41
Author(s):  
Abu Bakarr TARAWALIE
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Sierra Leone ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
The Real ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Effective Exchange ◽  
Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Long Run Equilibrium

This paper estimates the equilibrium real effective exchange rate and determine the level of exchange rate misalignment in Sierra Leone, for the period 1980 to 2018. The paper utilizes the behavioral equilibrium exchange rate methodology within the Johansen maximum likelihood framework to estimate the long run equilibrium real effective exchange rate. The unit root test result shows that all the variables are integrated of order one, whilst the cointegration test establishes the existence of one cointegrating vector as evidenced by both the Trace and Maximum Eigen Statistics. The normalized long run results reveal that openness, government expenditure and money supply were the most significant determinants of the real effective exchange rate in the long run. Furthermore, the findings reveal that the real effective exchange rate experienced sustained deviation from the long run equilibrium real effective exchange rate during the study period, with episodes of overvaluation and undervaluation. Specifically, the real effective exchange rate was overvalued by 3.69 percent during the period between 1980-1985; undervalued by 1.8 percent between 1986-1997, and overvalued by 0.9 percent between 1998-2004, Thus, the paper reveals episodes of misalignment of the real effective exchange rate. Based on these findings, the study recommends that, the monetary authorities should ensure stability of the exchange rate and maintain price stability, through sterilization of capital flows as well as contain money growth within the statutory limit.

scholarly journals Different Approaches to Merchandise Trade Balance in Pakistan

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (Number 2) ◽  
pp. 19-30
Author(s):  
Yousuf Aboya ◽  
Arsalan Hussain ◽  
Rohail Hassan ◽  
Hassan Mujtaba Nawaz Saleem ◽  
Aamir Hussain Siddiqui
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Trade Deficit ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Effective Exchange ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Merchandise Trade ◽  
Effective Exchange Rate

The current study empirically examines the three major approaches to trade balance for Pakistan by utilizing the yearly data from 1972 to 2016. Monetary, elasticity, and absorption approaches were tested by developing a model that incorporates all three approaches. The significant contribution of the study is that it uses only the merchandise trade deficit account, which includes trade of only physical goods. The study used time-series data; therefore, variables have been tested for the stationarity, and it is found that there is a combination of I (0) and I (1) variables, so ARDL bounds testing approach to co-integration has been employed to find the short run and long run associations among the variables. The bound test results discovered that there is a presence of stable long-term association among the merchandise trade deficit account, real broad money supply, real effective exchange rate, and real domestic absorption. The results further revealed that merchandise trade discrepancy is determined purely by the real effective exchange rate, which specifies that the exchange rate's devaluation increases the deficit in the long run whereas in the short-run increase in domestic absorption decreases the merchandise trade deficit.

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