scholarly journals Properties Of Management Forecast And Analysts' Responsiveness

2012 ◽  
Vol 28 (6) ◽  
pp. 1107
Author(s):  
Yura Kim ◽  
Kyunbeom Jeong
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Equity Market ◽  
Earnings Forecast ◽  
Market Reactions ◽  
Forecast Revisions ◽  
Management Forecast ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
New Information ◽  
Management Earnings Forecast ◽  
Management Guidance

This paper examines the degree of analysts responsiveness to voluntary management guidance. Prior studies report that the management guidance is informative and influential (e.g. Baginski et al., 1993). This paper studies various factors that trigger equity market reactions around the management forecast issuance date and find that analysts are more reactive to new information contained in management guidance when the guidance conveys information that affects the stock market. The extent of the analysts reaction to management guidance increases when the analysts find that the guidance is more credible. Credibility of management guidance from the standpoint of analysts means ex-post accuracy of the earnings estimate by the management. The direction and the magnitude of earnings forecast revisions are influenced by the assessment of the credibility of management earnings forecast by financial analysts.

Do Supplementary Sales Forecasts Increase the Credibility of Financial Analysts’ Earnings Forecasts?

2010 ◽  
Vol 85 (6) ◽  
pp. 2047-2074 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edmund C. Keung
Keyword(s):  
Financial Analysts ◽  
Earnings Forecasts ◽  
Earnings Persistence ◽  
Earnings Forecast ◽  
Time Effects ◽  
Forecast Revisions ◽  
Sales Forecast ◽  
Sales Forecasts ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Incremental Information

ABSTRACT: This study examines whether the market reacts more strongly to earnings forecast revisions when financial analysts supplement their earnings forecasts with sales forecasts. I find that earnings forecast revisions supplemented with sales forecast revisions have a greater impact on security prices than do stand-alone earnings forecast revisions, controlling for the incremental information content in sales forecasts. Supplemented earnings forecasts are more accurate ex post, controlling for other individual analyst characteristics. Results are robust to controlling for earnings persistence and time effects. Taken as a whole, financial analysts are more likely to supplement their earnings forecasts with sales forecasts when they have better information. Supplementary sales forecasts appear to lend credibility to earnings forecasts because financial analysts provide sales forecasts when they are more informed.

An Empirical Test of the Signaling Effect of Management's Earnings Forecasts: A Decomposition of the Earnings Surprise and Forecast Surprise Effects

1995 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 787-802 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gillian Hian Heng Yeo ◽  
David A. Ziebart
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Market Reaction ◽  
Empirical Test ◽  
Earnings Forecasts ◽  
The Other ◽  
Earnings Forecast ◽  
Corporate Management ◽  
Management Earnings Forecasts ◽  
Market Reactions ◽  
Earnings Surprise

When corporate management issues an earnings forecast there are potentially two surprises. One potential surprise is that a forecast was issued and the other is the surprise in the earnings forecast. Accordingly, the observed stock market reaction to management earnings forecasts may be due to one or the other, or both. This study decomposes the cross-sectional variability in stock market reactions to management earnings forecasts into the portions attributable to the forecast surprise and the earnings surprise. The results indicate that the market's reaction is a function of both the earnings surprise and the forecast surprise. However, the market reaction is more associated with forecast surprise than with the earnings surprise. This suggests that results in previous studies on the market reactions to management earnings forecasts may need to be reconsidered.

scholarly journals The intra-industry effects of chapter 11 filings: Evidence from analysts’ earnings forecast revisions

2012 ◽  
Vol 9 (4-2) ◽  
pp. 262-268
Author(s):  
Gary L. Caton ◽  
Jeffrey Donaldson ◽  
Jeremy Goh
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Earnings Forecasts ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Bad News ◽  
Earnings Forecast ◽  
Market Reactions ◽  
Forecast Revisions ◽  
Stock Market Reactions ◽  
Future Cash Flows

Shareholders suffer huge losses when firms they own file Chapter 11. Interestingly, even shareholders of rival companies experience statistically significant losses. We examine how the bad news associated with a bankruptcy filing is transferred to the filing firm’s rivals. Using revisions in analysts’ earnings forecasts as a proxy for changes in expected future cash flows, we find that after a bankruptcy filing the market revises downward its cash flow expectations for rivals. Regression analysis confirms a positive relation between changes in expected cash flow and stock market reactions. These findings are consistent with our hypothesis that bad news associated with bankruptcy filings are transferred to rivals through reductions in expected future cash flows

scholarly journals Returns to buying upward revision and selling downward revision stocks

2016 ◽  
Vol 42 (11) ◽  
pp. 1110-1124
Author(s):  
Tony Chieh-Tse Hou ◽  
Phillip McKnight ◽  
Charlie Weir
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Information Diffusion ◽  
Trading Strategy ◽  
Good News ◽  
Analyst Forecast ◽  
Earnings Forecast ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Forecast Revisions ◽  
New Information

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the role of earnings forecast revisions by equity analysts in predicting Canadian stock returns Design/methodology/approach The sample covers 420 Canadian firms over the period 1998-2009. It analyses investors’ reactions to 27,271 upward revisions and 32,005 downward revisions of analysts’ forecasts for Canadian quoted companies. To test whether analysts’ earnings forecast revisions affect stock return continuation, forecast revision portfolios similar to Jegadeesh and Titman (2001) are constructed. The paper analyses the returns gained from a trading strategy based on buying the strong upward revisions portfolio and short selling the strong downward revisions portfolio. It also separates the sample into upward and downward revisions. Findings The authors find that new information in the form of analyst forecast revisions is not impounded efficiently into stock prices. Significant returns persist for a trading strategy that buys stocks with recent upward revisions and short sells stocks with recent downward revisions. Good news is impounded into stock prices more slowly than bad news. Post-earnings forecast revisions drift is negatively related to analyst coverage. The effect is strongest for stocks with greatest number of upward revisions. The introduction of the better disclosure standards has made the Canadian stock market more efficient. Originality/value The paper adds to the limited evidence on the effect of analyst forecast revisions on the returns of Canadian stocks. It sheds light on the importance of analysts’ earnings forecast information and offers support for the investor conservatism and information diffusion hypotheses. It also shows how policy can improve market efficiency.

scholarly journals Evaluation of Management Earnings Forecast Error and Information Content of Accruals: Listed Companies in Tehran Stock Exchange

2013 ◽  
Vol 4 (4) ◽  
pp. 119-129
Author(s):  
Mehdi Moradzadehfard
Keyword(s):  
Information Content ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Forecast Error ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Discretionary Accruals ◽  
Earnings Forecast ◽  
Management Forecasts ◽  
Management Forecast ◽  
Significant Negative Relationship ◽  
Management Earnings Forecast

Aim of this study is studying relation of management earnings forecast error and information content of accruals. Thus, the sample consists of 71 companies were selected for the period 2003-2011. In this study discretionary accruals is used as independent variables. The results suggest that there is a significant negative relationship between earnings management forecast error and the total discretionary accruals. These results indicate that other assumptions that management forecasts for financing through equity or debt generates a significant positive relationship between positive accruals and management earnings forecast error. In addition, through equity or debt financing outlook, there is no significant relationship between earnings forecast error and negative accruals.

Earnings forecast revisions and securities prices evolution in the Tunisian stock market

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 165-187
Author(s):  
Ahmed Bouteska ◽  
Boutheina Regaieg
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Earnings Forecast ◽  
Behavioral Models ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Forecast Revisions ◽  
Theoretical Hypothesis ◽  
Investor Reaction ◽  
Psychological Bias ◽  
Abnormal Variation

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of forecast earnings’ revision on the evolution of securities prices in the Tunisian stock market. Design/methodology/approach A portfolio study of investor reaction and stock prices following revisions is first conducted to highlight the existence of abnormal return related to analysts’ earnings revisions. Analysis is then supplemented by a second empirical investigation based on the panel data to quantify the effect of revision on the abnormal profitability of securities. Findings The evidence found in this paper validates the fundamental theoretical hypothesis according to which the psychological bias resulting from the effect of the forecast earnings revision is related to the abnormal profitability of the securities. The authors conclude the importance of the revision impact on investors’ behavior on one hand, and the informational content of the analysts’ forecasts and the biases which they lead on the other hand. Originality/value Globally, the empirical illustrations largely validate the findings of behavioral models particularly that of Kormendi and Lippe (1987), Cornell and Letsman (1989), Beaver et al. (2008) which states that investors under psychological bias, react to the effect of forecast earnings revision by an abnormal variation in stock prices.

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