SALES FORECAST FOR AGGREGATE PLANNING: CASE STUDY OF AN INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTS COMPANY IN MEXICO

This case study presents the analysis through the use of sales estimation tools for planning demand for aggregate level as a finished product in a leading industrial products company in the market in Mexico. First, it aligned the demand plan and the supply plan, recommending the best execution scenario to increase operational efficiency and reduce the cost of operating the supply chain to increase the company's productivity and stay competitive. Then, after analysing the behaviour of the demand for selected products, the authors determined as the main affectation the inadequate precision of the method forecasting and the lack of an aggregate forecasting strategy that allows reducing the variation. Due to this, the most significant effort was concentrated on determining a better-forecasting model and the decision to aggregate the demand based on three relevant criteria: the demand pattern based on the Soft, Intermittent, Erratic or Irregular quadrant, the best method of the forecast for each product and the time in quarters. As a result, a reduction between 20% and 46% in the forecast variation can be obtained from the above.

SALES FORECAST MODELING BASED ON CORRELATION AND REGRESSION METHODS

The presented article explores the methods of correlation and regression analysis, developed its own algorithm for obtaining the initial data of interest, and also presents the calculation algo-rithm for the law of change in sales volumes. Based on the presented calculations, the errors of the correlation coefficients and the results of the regression analysis were calculated.

Inversión en publicidad: Un análisis de los ingresos del sector automotriz en la provincia de Tungurahua

A nivel mundial, las empresas buscan insertarse o mantener un buen posicionamiento dentro del mercado de consumo. Constantemente, las industrias investigan nuevas estrategias de marketing para promocionar y publicitar sus bienes o servicios, con el fin de obtener mayores réditos económicos; en Ecuador, la industria automotriz es uno de los sectores productivos que mayor aporte realiza a la economía. El objetivo del estudio fue determinar la incidencia de la inversión en publicidad, mediante el rubro gasto promoción y publicidad sobre los ingresos totales registrados por las principales empresas comercializadoras de vehículos de la provincia de Tungurahua. Con base a lo expuesto, se aplicó un modelo de regresión lineal para correlacionar los ingresos en ventas y el gasto en publicidad- promoción de las concesionarias de vehículos de la provincia de Tungurahua, durante el periodo 2016 – 2019. A través del estudio cuantitativo se analizaron los datos de las empresas seleccionadas y se comprobó que existe una relación del 79% entre el rubro gasto publicidad y los ingresos totales obtenidos. Mediante la ecuación lineal se corroboró que por cada dólar que se suma por concepto de publicidad los ingresos incrementan en $73,83. Finalmente, se pronosticó para el año 2020 una reducción tanto en los ingresos como en el gasto de publicidad. Palabras clave: Inversión, promoción y publicidad, pronóstico, sector automotriz, ventas. orldwide, companies seek to insert or maintain a good position within the consumer market. Industries are constantly looking for new marketing strategies to promote and advertise their goods or services in order to obtain higher economic returns. On the other hand, in Ecuador the automotive industry is one of the productive sectors that makes the greatest contribution to the economy. The objective of the study was to determine the incidence of investment in advertising through the promotion and advertising expense item on the total income registered by the main vehicle marketing companies in the province of Tungurahua. Based on the above, a linear regression model was applied to correlate sales income and advertising-promotion spending of vehicle dealerships in the province of Tungurahua during the period 2016 - 2019. Through the quantitative study they were analyzed the data of the selected companies and it was found that there is a 79% relationship between the advertising expenditure item and the total income obtained. Using the linear equation, it was confirmed that for every dollar added for advertising, income increased by $ 73.83. Finally, a reduction in both revenue and advertising spending was forecast for 2020. Keywords: Investment, automotive sector, promotion and advertising, sales, forecast Víctor

Competitive Product Identification and Sales Forecast Based on Consumer Reviews

Sellers readily obtain consumer product evaluations from online reviews in order to identify competitive products in detail and predict sales. Firstly, we collect product review data from shopping websites, social media, product communities, and other online platforms to identify product competitors with the help of word-frequency cooccurrence technology. We take mobile phones as an example to mine and analyze product competition information. Then, we calculate the product review quantity, review emotion value, product-network heat, and price statistics and establish the regression model of online product review forecasts. In addition, the neural-network model is established to suggest that the relationships among factors are linear. On the basis of analyzing and discussing the impact of product sales of the competitors, product price, the emotional value of the reviews, and product-network popularity, we construct the sales forecast model. Finally, to verify the validity of the factor analysis affecting the sales and the rationality of the established model, actual sales data are used to further analyze and verify the model, showing that the model is reasonable and effective.

Do socially responsible managers forecast sales more accurately?

Purpose This paper aims to examine whether corporate social responsibility (CSR) is related to management sales forecast accuracy. Design/methodology/approach Use KLD measures of corporate responsibility combined with forecast accuracy regression model, including controls for management skills and expertise. Findings Socially responsible firms commit forecast errors of lower magnitude and sales forecast accuracy is positively related to the level of CSR. Research limitations/implications A strong motive for research on the field of CSR topic under the scope of reporting quality. Future research could focus on alternative measures of CSR; such as announcements included into the financial statements or separately disclosed expenses. Examine the magnitude of confirmed relation, among different economies worldwide. Practical implications CSR effect on manager sales forecasting activity, highlight the impact of brand awareness and customer loyalty, as created by implementing CSR strategies, on firm growth and sales expansion. Social implications The research enhances the era towards more socially responsible firms, presenting evidence of such an adoption on corporate fundamentals. Originality/value To the knowledge there is no prior research examining the implications of CSR on sales forecast accuracy.

Web-Based Inventory Application Development for PT. Palugada Indonesia

PT. Palugada Indonesia still records their transactions and inventory of goods in traditional ways, which could result in some errors caused primarily by human interventions. The aim of this research is to assist PT. Palugada Indonesia to control their inventory through an information system. Specifically, a web-based application that can process product data, supplier data, customer data, user data and transaction data was purposefully developed in this study. In addition, the developed application has notification and sales forecast features. These features are expected to further assist PT. Palugada Indonesia to control their inventory optimally. Moreover, the application also has some other useful features, for instance in displaying more informative data, by bringing up sales forecasts and notifications. The developed application was modeled using UML diagram 2.0 and developed using HTML, PHP, and MySQL database. Index Terms—inventory; web-based application; saels forecast; PT. Palugada Indonesia