scholarly journals The intra-industry effects of chapter 11 filings: Evidence from analysts’ earnings forecast revisions

2012 ◽  
Vol 9 (4-2) ◽  
pp. 262-268
Author(s):  
Gary L. Caton ◽  
Jeffrey Donaldson ◽  
Jeremy Goh
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Earnings Forecasts ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Bad News ◽  
Earnings Forecast ◽  
Market Reactions ◽  
Forecast Revisions ◽  
Stock Market Reactions ◽  
Future Cash Flows

Shareholders suffer huge losses when firms they own file Chapter 11. Interestingly, even shareholders of rival companies experience statistically significant losses. We examine how the bad news associated with a bankruptcy filing is transferred to the filing firm’s rivals. Using revisions in analysts’ earnings forecasts as a proxy for changes in expected future cash flows, we find that after a bankruptcy filing the market revises downward its cash flow expectations for rivals. Regression analysis confirms a positive relation between changes in expected cash flow and stock market reactions. These findings are consistent with our hypothesis that bad news associated with bankruptcy filings are transferred to rivals through reductions in expected future cash flows

scholarly journals Kemampuan Laba dan Arus Kas Operasi dalam Memprediksi Laba dan Arus Kas Masa Depan

2018 ◽  
pp. 80
Author(s):  
Frans AP Dromexs Lumbantoruan ◽  
I Gusti Ngurah Agung Suaryana
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Flow Property ◽  
Multiple Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Future Earnings ◽  
Analysis Technique ◽  
Operating Cash Flow ◽  
Future Cash Flows

This study aims to determine the ability of earnings and operating cash flows in predicting earnings and future cash flows. This research was conducted on property and real estate companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. The samples used by 20 companies with 40 observations. The sampling was done by nonprobability samplingmethod with purposive samplingtechnique. The analysis technique used is multiple linear regression analysis. Based on the result of the analysis, earnings influences in predicting future earnings. Likewise, earnings and operating cash flow have an effect in predicting future cash flows. However, operating cash flow is not influential in predicting future earnings. Keywords: profitability, cash flow, property

scholarly journals The Influence of Future Cash Flow Predictions on Profits in Companies Listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange

2021 ◽  
pp. 026-033
Author(s):  
Titik Purwanti
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Net Income ◽  
Purposive Sampling ◽  
Future Cash Flow ◽  
Operating Profit ◽  
Food And Beverage ◽  
Future Cash Flows

This research was conducted to determine the effect of future cash flow predictions on profits (gross profit, operating profit, and net income) in food and beverage companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. The method used in this research used purposive sampling with a population of food and beverage companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange for the period 2016-2018. The samples in this research were 19 companies. The results obtained indicate that the operating profit variable has a partial effect on future cash flows, while the net income variable and the gross profit variable do not partially affect future cash flows. Simultaneously, gross profit, operating profit and net income have an effect on future cash flows.

The Association between Big 6 Auditor Industry Expertise and the Asymmetric Timeliness of Earnings

2005 ◽  
Vol 20 (3) ◽  
pp. 209-228 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gopal V. Krishnan
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flows ◽  
Bad News ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
The Public ◽  
Asymmetric Timeliness ◽  
High Profile ◽  
Timely Fashion ◽  
Future Cash Flows ◽  
Auditor Industry Expertise ◽  
Industry Expertise

The accounting profession is facing a credibility crisis precipitated by the failure of several high-profile companies and the alleged failure of their auditors to detect and persuade their clients to recognize economic losses in earnings in a timely fashion. Investors, regulators, analysts, and the public are interested in identifying factors that enhance the timeliness of earnings, particularly about bad news. This study provides empirical evidence on one such factor—auditors' industry expertise. Using a large sample of clients of Big 6 auditors, this research examines the association between auditor industry expertise, measured in terms of an industry's share in the auditor's portfolio of client industries, and the speed with which publicly available bad news about future cash flows is recognized in earnings. The findings indicate that the earnings of clients of specialist auditors are more timely in reflecting bad news than earnings of clients of nonspecialist auditors. This finding is consistent with the notion that auditors' industry expertise moderates the tendency of auditees to delay the recognition of economic losses in earnings.

Dispersion in Analysts' Earnings Forecasts as a Measure of Uncertainty

1998 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 245-270 ◽  
Author(s):  
Orie E. Barron ◽  
Pamela S. Stuerke
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Earnings Forecasts ◽  
Positive Association ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Financial Reports ◽  
Forecast Dispersion ◽  
Additional Information ◽  
Price Reactions ◽  
Daily Stock Returns ◽  
Future Cash Flows

This study examines whether dispersion in analysts' earnings forecasts reflects uncertainty about firms' future economic performance. Prior research examining this issue has been inconclusive. These studies have concluded that forecast dispersion is likely to reflect factors other than uncertainty about future cash flows, such as uncertainty about the price irrelevant component of firms' financial reports (Daley et al. [1988]; Imhoff and Lobo [1992]). Abarbanell et al. (1995) argue that, if forecast dispersion after (i.e., conditional on) an earnings announcement reflects uncertainty about firms' future cash flows and this uncertainty causes investors to desire additional information, then dispersion will be positively associated with both (a) the level of demand for more information and (b) the magnitude of price reactions around the subsequent earnings release. In this study, we construct a measure of informational demand using the incidence of analyst forecast updating after dispersion is measured. We find a positive association between dispersion in earnings forecasts after an earnings release and this measure of informational demand. We also find a positive association between forecast dispersion and the magnitude of price reactions around subsequent earnings releases. These associations are most apparent when potentially stale (or outdated) forecasts are removed from measures of forecast dispersion. These associations also persist after controlling for other measures of uncertainty (e.g., beta and the variance of daily stock returns), consistent with dispersion in analysts' earnings forecasts serving as a useful indicator of uncertainty about the price relevant component of firms' future earnings.

scholarly journals Foreign Monitoring and Predictability of Future Cash Flow

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (18) ◽  
pp. 4832
Author(s):  
Jaehong Lee ◽  
Eunsoo Kim
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Predictive Ability ◽  
Financial Statements ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Foreign Investors ◽  
Future Cash Flow ◽  
Flow Components ◽  
Future Cash Flows

A company’s sustainability is generally determined by whether it is able to create a positive long-term cash flow. This paper investigates whether the predictive ability of cash flows and earnings in forecasting future cash flows differs depending on the foreign investors’ ownership. Based on firms listed in the Korea Stock Exchange market from 2000 to 2017, we find that earnings and cash flow components of financial statements enhance the predictability of future cash flow in the Korean stock market. Conversely, foreign investors showed a tendency to decide on investments based on operating cash flow instead of earnings when predicting future cash flow. These findings indicate that reliability towards earnings may fall since foreign investors’ concerns are on the prospects of earnings management. These results were strengthened by the addition of several more analyses including cluster analyses, consideration of information asymmetry and the chaebol governance.

Does Accounting Conservatism Mitigate the Shortcomings of CEO Overconfidence?

2017 ◽  
Vol 92 (6) ◽  
pp. 77-101 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charles Hsu ◽  
Kirill E. Novoselov ◽  
Rencheng Wang
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Accounting Conservatism ◽  
Bad News ◽  
Market Reactions ◽  
Analyst Following ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
Conservative Accounting ◽  
Theoretical Predictions ◽  
Empirical Tests ◽  
Positive Effect

ABSTRACT Overconfident CEOs are more willing to initiate investment projects that require experimentation, yet tend to defer responding to the bad news when the project is not performing as planned. Accounting conservatism accelerates the recognition of the bad news and its dissemination to gatekeepers, making it more likely that the CEO will acknowledge the problem earlier and start searching for solutions. Therefore, firms where both characteristics—CEO overconfidence and accounting conservatism—are present should perform better. Our empirical tests confirm this prediction: firms that practice conservative accounting and are run by overconfident CEOs exhibit better cash flow performance. Our results continue to hold in a variety of settings, including market reactions to acquisitions, cash flow downside risk, and analyst following. Further, the joint positive effect of CEO overconfidence and accounting conservatism on firm performance is stronger in high-uncertainty environments and in firms facing less stringent financing constraints, consistent with theoretical predictions.

scholarly journals Cash flow disaggregation and prediction of cash flow

2017 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 464-479 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ehsan Khansalar ◽  
Mohammad Namazi
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Prediction Errors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Balance Sheets ◽  
Income Statement ◽  
Aggregated Model ◽  
Flow Components ◽  
Future Cash Flows

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the incremental information content of estimates of cash flow components in predicting future cash flows. Design/methodology/approach The authors examine whether the models incorporating components of operating cash flow from income statements and balance sheets using the direct method are associated with smaller prediction errors than the models incorporating core and non-core cash flow. Findings Using data from US and UK firms and multiple regression analysis, the authors find that around 60 per cent of a current year’s cash flow will persist into the next period’s cash flows, and that income statement and balance sheet variables persist similarly. The explanatory power and predictive ability of disaggregated cash flow models are superior to that of an aggregated model, and further disaggregating previously applied core and non-core cash flows provides incremental information about income statement and balance sheet items that enhances prediction of future cash flows. Disaggregated models and their components produce lower out-of-sample prediction errors than an aggregated model. Research limitations/implications This study improves our appreciation of the behaviour of cash flow components and confirms the need for detailed cash flow information in accordance with the articulation of financial statements. Practical implications The findings are relevant to investors and analysts in predicting future cash flows and to regulators with respect to disclosure requirements and recommendations. Social implications The findings are also relevant to financial statement users interested in better predicting a firm’s future cash flows and thereby, its firm’s value. Originality/value This paper contributes to the existing literature by further disaggregating cash flow items into their underlying items from income statements and balance sheets.

Do Analysts Say Anything About Earnings Without Revising Their Earnings Forecasts?

2018 ◽  
Vol 94 (2) ◽  
pp. 29-52 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philip G. Berger ◽  
Charles G. Ham ◽  
Zachary R. Kaplan
Keyword(s):  
Earnings Forecasts ◽  
Share Price ◽  
Earnings Forecast ◽  
Forecast Dispersion ◽  
Earnings Announcement ◽  
Forecast Revisions ◽  
Predictable Returns

ABSTRACT Analysts are selective about which forecasts they update and, thus, convey information about current quarter earnings even when not revising the current quarter earnings (CQE) forecast. We find that (1) textual statements, (2) share price target revisions, and (3) future quarter earnings forecast revisions all predict error in the CQE forecast. We document several reasons analysts sometimes omit information from the CQE forecast: to facilitate beatable forecasts by suppressing positive news from the CQE forecast, to herd toward the consensus, and to avoid small forecast revisions. We also show that omitting information from CQE forecasts leads to lower forecast dispersion and predictable returns at the earnings announcement.

Do Supplementary Sales Forecasts Increase the Credibility of Financial Analysts’ Earnings Forecasts?

2010 ◽  
Vol 85 (6) ◽  
pp. 2047-2074 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edmund C. Keung
Keyword(s):  
Financial Analysts ◽  
Earnings Forecasts ◽  
Earnings Persistence ◽  
Earnings Forecast ◽  
Time Effects ◽  
Forecast Revisions ◽  
Sales Forecast ◽  
Sales Forecasts ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Incremental Information

ABSTRACT: This study examines whether the market reacts more strongly to earnings forecast revisions when financial analysts supplement their earnings forecasts with sales forecasts. I find that earnings forecast revisions supplemented with sales forecast revisions have a greater impact on security prices than do stand-alone earnings forecast revisions, controlling for the incremental information content in sales forecasts. Supplemented earnings forecasts are more accurate ex post, controlling for other individual analyst characteristics. Results are robust to controlling for earnings persistence and time effects. Taken as a whole, financial analysts are more likely to supplement their earnings forecasts with sales forecasts when they have better information. Supplementary sales forecasts appear to lend credibility to earnings forecasts because financial analysts provide sales forecasts when they are more informed.

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