scholarly journals Returns to buying upward revision and selling downward revision stocks

2016 ◽  
Vol 42 (11) ◽  
pp. 1110-1124
Author(s):  
Tony Chieh-Tse Hou ◽  
Phillip McKnight ◽  
Charlie Weir
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Information Diffusion ◽  
Trading Strategy ◽  
Good News ◽  
Analyst Forecast ◽  
Earnings Forecast ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Forecast Revisions ◽  
New Information

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the role of earnings forecast revisions by equity analysts in predicting Canadian stock returns Design/methodology/approach The sample covers 420 Canadian firms over the period 1998-2009. It analyses investors’ reactions to 27,271 upward revisions and 32,005 downward revisions of analysts’ forecasts for Canadian quoted companies. To test whether analysts’ earnings forecast revisions affect stock return continuation, forecast revision portfolios similar to Jegadeesh and Titman (2001) are constructed. The paper analyses the returns gained from a trading strategy based on buying the strong upward revisions portfolio and short selling the strong downward revisions portfolio. It also separates the sample into upward and downward revisions. Findings The authors find that new information in the form of analyst forecast revisions is not impounded efficiently into stock prices. Significant returns persist for a trading strategy that buys stocks with recent upward revisions and short sells stocks with recent downward revisions. Good news is impounded into stock prices more slowly than bad news. Post-earnings forecast revisions drift is negatively related to analyst coverage. The effect is strongest for stocks with greatest number of upward revisions. The introduction of the better disclosure standards has made the Canadian stock market more efficient. Originality/value The paper adds to the limited evidence on the effect of analyst forecast revisions on the returns of Canadian stocks. It sheds light on the importance of analysts’ earnings forecast information and offers support for the investor conservatism and information diffusion hypotheses. It also shows how policy can improve market efficiency.

Earnings forecast revisions and securities prices evolution in the Tunisian stock market

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 165-187
Author(s):  
Ahmed Bouteska ◽  
Boutheina Regaieg
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Earnings Forecast ◽  
Behavioral Models ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Forecast Revisions ◽  
Theoretical Hypothesis ◽  
Investor Reaction ◽  
Psychological Bias ◽  
Abnormal Variation

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of forecast earnings’ revision on the evolution of securities prices in the Tunisian stock market. Design/methodology/approach A portfolio study of investor reaction and stock prices following revisions is first conducted to highlight the existence of abnormal return related to analysts’ earnings revisions. Analysis is then supplemented by a second empirical investigation based on the panel data to quantify the effect of revision on the abnormal profitability of securities. Findings The evidence found in this paper validates the fundamental theoretical hypothesis according to which the psychological bias resulting from the effect of the forecast earnings revision is related to the abnormal profitability of the securities. The authors conclude the importance of the revision impact on investors’ behavior on one hand, and the informational content of the analysts’ forecasts and the biases which they lead on the other hand. Originality/value Globally, the empirical illustrations largely validate the findings of behavioral models particularly that of Kormendi and Lippe (1987), Cornell and Letsman (1989), Beaver et al. (2008) which states that investors under psychological bias, react to the effect of forecast earnings revision by an abnormal variation in stock prices.

scholarly journals Stock returns, illiquidity and feedback trading

2020 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 135-145
Author(s):  
Jing Chen ◽  
David G. McMillan
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Positive Feedback ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Sovereign Debt ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Estimation Methods ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Study Results ◽  
European Markets ◽  
Feedback Trading

Purpose This study aims to examine the relation between illiquidity, feedback trading and stock returns for several European markets, using panel regression methods, during the financial and the sovereign debt crises. The authors’ interest here lies twofold. First, the authors seek to compare the results obtained here under crisis conditions with those in the existing literature. Second, and of greater importance, the authors wish to examine the interaction between liquidity and feedback trading and their effect on stock returns. Design/methodology/approach The authors jointly model both feedback trading and illiquidity, which are typically considered in isolation. The authors use panel estimation methods to examine the relations across the European markets as a whole. Findings The key results suggest that in common with the literature, illiquidity has a negative impact upon contemporaneous stock returns, while supportive evidence of positive feedback trading is reported. However, in contrast to the existing literature, lagged illiquidity is not a priced risk, while negative shocks do not lead to greater feedback trading behaviour. Regarding the interaction between illiquidity and feedback trading, the study results support the view that greater illiquidity is associated with stronger positive feedback. Originality/value The study results suggest that when price changes are more observable, due to low liquidity, then feedback trading increases. Therefore, during the crisis periods that afflicted European markets, the lower levels of liquidity prevalent led to an increase in feedback trading. Thus, negative liquidity shocks that led to a fall in stock prices were exacerbated by feedback trading.

scholarly journals Macroeconomic News and Stock Returns in the United States and Germany

2006 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 189-210 ◽  
Author(s):  
Norbert Funke ◽  
Akimi Matsuda
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
The United States ◽  
Good News ◽  
Macroeconomic News ◽  
Hourly Data ◽  
Different Types ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Using daily data for the January 1997 to June 2002 period, we analyze similarities and differences in the impact of macroeconomic news on stock returns in the United States and Germany. We consider 27 different types of news for the United States and 12 different types of news for Germany. For the United States, we present evidence for asymmetric reactions of stock prices to news. In a boom (recession) period, bad (good) news on GDP growth and unemployment or lower (higher) than expected interest rates may be good news for stock prices. In the period under consideration there is little evidence for asymmetric effects in Germany. However, in the case of Germany, international news appears at least as important as domestic news. There is no evidence that US stock prices are influenced by German news. The analysis of bi-hourly data for Germany confirms these results.

Asymmetric impact of exchange rate changes on stock returns: evidence of two de facto regimes

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 147-173
Author(s):  
Walid M.A. Ahmed
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Currency Depreciation ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Exchange Rate Changes

Purpose This study focuses on Egypt’s recent experience with exchange rate policies, examining the existence of spillover effects of exchange rate variations on stock prices across two different de facto regimes and whether these effects, if any, are asymmetric. Design/methodology/approach The empirical analysis is carried out using a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag modeling framework, which permits testing for the presence of short- and long-run asymmetries. Relevant local and global factors are also included in the analysis as control variables. The authors divide the entire sample into a soft peg period and a free float one. Findings Over the soft peg regime period, both positive and negative changes in EGP/USD exchange rates seem to have a significant impact on stock returns, whether in the short or long run. Short-term asymmetric effects vanish in the free float period, while long-term asymmetries continue to exist. By and large, the authors find that currency depreciation tends to exercise a stronger influence on stock returns than does currency appreciation. Practical implications The results offer important insights for investors, regulators and policymakers. With the domestic currency depreciation having a negative impact on stock prices, investors should contemplate implementing appropriate currency hedging strategies to abate depreciation risks and, hence, preserve their expected rate of return on the Egyptian pound-denominated investments. In the current post-flotation era, the government could pursue a flexible inflation targeting monetary policy framework, with a view to both lowering the soaring inflation toward an announced target rate and stabilizing economic growth. The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) could adopt indirect monetary policy instruments to secure tightened liquidity conditions. Besides, the CBE could raise policy rates to incentivize people to keep their money in local currency-denominated instruments, instead of dollarizing their savings, thereby relieving banks of foreign currency demand pressures. Nevertheless, while being beneficial to the country’s real economy on several aspects, such contractionary monetary measures may temporarily impinge on stock market performance. Accordingly, policymakers should consider precautionary measures that reduce the potential for price distortions and unnecessary volatility in the stock market. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, the current study represents the first attempt to explore the potential impact of exchange rate changes under different regimes on Egypt’s stock market, thus contributing to the relevant research in this area.

Investor attention and market correction

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhongdong Chen
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Trading Behavior ◽  
Investor Attention ◽  
Information Effect ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Significance ◽  
New Information ◽  
Positive Volume ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThis study disentangles the investor-base effect and the information effect of investor attention. The former leads to a larger investor base and higher stock returns, while the latter facilitates the dissemination of information among investors and impacts informational trading.Design/methodology/approachUsing positive volume shocks as a proxy for increased investor attention, this study evaluates the impacts of the investor-base effect and the information effect of investor attention on market correction following extreme daily returns in the US stock market from 1966 to 2018.FindingsThis study finds that the investor-base effect increases subsequent returns of both daily winner and daily loser stocks. The information effect leads to economically less significant return reversals for both the daily winner and daily loser stocks. These two effects tend to have economically more significant impacts on the daily loser stocks. The economic significance of these two effects is also related to firm size and the state of the stock market.Originality/valueThis study is the first to disentangle the investor-base effect and the information effect of increased investor attention. The evidence that the information effect facilitates the dissemination of new information and impacts stock returns contributes to the strand of studies on the impact of investor attention on market efficiency. This evidence also contributes to the strand of studies analyzing the impact of informational trading on stock returns. In addition, this study provides evidence for market overreaction and the subsequent correction. The results for up and down markets contribute to the literature on the investors' trading behavior.

Trading Volume and Cross-Autocorrelations of Stock Returns in Emerging Markets: Evidence from the Taiwan Stock Market

2004 ◽  
Vol 07 (04) ◽  
pp. 509-524
Author(s):  
Wen-Hsiu Kuo ◽  
Hsinan Hsu ◽  
Chwan-Yi Chiang
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Trading Volume ◽  
Price Limits ◽  
Speed Of Adjustment ◽  
New Information ◽  
Weak Evidence ◽  
Market Inefficiency ◽  
Daily Returns

This study empirically investigates the interaction between trading volume and cross-autocorrelations of stock returns in the Taiwan stock market. The result shows that returns on high trading volume portfolios lead returns on low trading volume portfolios when controlled for firm size, indicating that trading volume determines lead-lag cross-autocorrelations of stock returns. Overall, the empirical findings of this study demonstrate similar results for both monthly and daily returns, suggesting that nonsynchronrous trading is not the main reason for the lead-lag cross-autocorrelations presented in this study. Consequently, the empirical results presented here support the speed of adjustment hypothesis, and suggest that some market inefficiency exists in the Taiwan stock market. Additionally, compared with evidence of lead-lag cross-autocorrelations in the larger, less regulated US stock market, as examined by Chordia and Swaminathan (2000), Taiwan stock market displays less evidence of VARs and Dimson beta regressions. We conjecture that this weak evidence may result from the regulations limiting daily price movements in the Taiwan stock market. Although the price limits policy lowers risk and stabilizes stock prices, it also prevents stock prices and trading volume from instantaneously and fully reflecting new information.

The effect of financial analysts on the economic implications of disclosed lease information – a note

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Su-Jane Hsieh ◽  
Yuli Su
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Cash Flow ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Predictive Value ◽  
Financial Analysts ◽  
Financial Analyst ◽  
Analyst Following ◽  
Analyst Coverage ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to investigate whether financial analyst coverage affects the dissemination of disclosed operating lease information into cash flow predictions and stock prices.Design/methodology/approachThe difference in lease expense between capital/finance lease and operating lease reporting is estimated based on the approach in Hsieh and Su (2015). This difference is referred to as the earnings impact from operating lease capitalization and is only available from footnotes. The authors then include the level of financial analyst following in a cash flow model to study its impact on the cash flow predictive value of the earnings impact. Similarly, the level of financial analyst following is inserted in an earnings-return model to assess the effect of analyst coverage on the association between contemporaneous stock returns and earnings impact.FindingsThe authors find that the cash flow predictive value of the earnings impact shifts to the interaction between analyst coverage and the earnings impact, suggesting that the decision-usefulness of the earnings impact is conditioned on the level of analyst following. Nevertheless, the authors find that the earnings impact continues to have explanatory value for the contemporaneous stock returns, while the interaction between analyst coverage and the earnings impact does not. This finding suggests that the earnings impact is already fully reflected in stock prices regardless of analyst following.Research limitations/implicationsSince the estimation of the earnings impact from reporting operating leases as capital leases is based on the method developed by Imhoff et al. (1991), the results and inferences are thus constrained by the validity of the method.Practical implicationsThe authors find that financial analyst activities accelerate the incorporation of the earnings impact from operating lease capitalization in cash flow predictions, but it does not promote the impounding of the earnings impact into stock prices. This finding suggests that financial analysts' influence on the dissemination of the earnings impact hinges on the type of economic activity, and failing to consider the financial analyst following in studying the cash flow predictive value of the earnings impact would obscure the findings.Originality/valueThe authors extend the findings of prior research that financial analysts' activities promote the incorporation of firm-specific information into stock prices by investigating the impact of financial analysts on the dissemination of disclosed operating lease information.

The predictive ability of stock market factors

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammed Mohammed Elgammal ◽  
Fatma Ehab Ahmed ◽  
David Gordon McMillan
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Five Factor Model ◽  
Trading Strategy ◽  
Expected Returns ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Varying Coefficients ◽  
One Step ◽  
Market Factors

Purpose This paper aims to ask whether a range of stock market factors contain information that is useful to investors by generating a trading rule based on one-step-ahead forecasts from rolling and recursive regressions. Design/methodology/approach Using USA data across 3,256 firms, the authors estimate stock returns on a range of factors using both fixed-effects panel and individual regressions. The authors use rolling and recursive approaches to generate time-varying coefficients. Subsequently, the authors generate one-step-ahead forecasts for expected returns, simulate a trading strategy and compare its performance with realised returns. Findings Results from the panel and individual firm regressions show that an extended Fama-French five-factor model that includes momentum, reversal and quality factors outperform other models. Moreover, rolling based regressions outperform recursive ones in forecasting returns. Research limitations/implications The results support notable time-variation in the coefficients on each factor, whilst suggesting that more distant observations, inherent in recursive regressions, do not improve predictive power over more recent observations. Results support the ability of market factors to improve forecast performance over a buy-and-hold strategy. Practical implications The results presented here will be of interest to both academics in understanding the dynamics of expected stock returns and investors who seek to improve portfolio performance through highlighting which factors determine stock return movement. Originality/value The authors investigate the ability of risk factors to provide accurate forecasts and thus have economic value to investors. The authors conducted a series of moving and expanding window regressions to trace the dynamic movements of the stock returns average response to explanatory factors. The authors use the time-varying parameters to generate one-step-ahead forecasts of expected returns and simulate a trading strategy.

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