scholarly journals Management Earnings Forecast And Earnings Management: Does Prior-Period Forecast Accuracy Play A Role?

2013 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 147 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jing-Wen Yang
Keyword(s):  
Earnings Management ◽  
Forecast Accuracy ◽  
Earnings Forecasts ◽  
Bad News ◽  
Earnings Forecast ◽  
Font Size ◽  
Management Earnings Forecast ◽  
Different Levels

<span style="font-family: Times New Roman; font-size: small;"> </span><p style="margin: 0in 0.5in 0pt; text-align: justify; mso-pagination: none;" class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 10pt;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">This study aims at examining 1) whether the market reacts differently in response to the same news, but based on different levels of accuracy from prior earnings forecasts; 2) whether managers tend to maintain or change their reputations for being optimistic or pessimistic in their forecasts; and 3) whether managers manage current earnings numbers in order to maintain or change their reputations for optimistic or pessimistic forecasting. Based on t-tests and the Wilcoxon rank-signed test, it was discovered that the market reacts more positively (negatively) on good (bad) news with a pessimistic (optimistic) prior earnings forecast. Further, when a firm is pessimistic in its forecasts, it tends to stay pessimistic, but when a firm has a reputation for optimistic forecasts, it does not appear to change that reputation. A firm with an optimistic prior forecast is more likely to manage earnings upwards by influencing one of the following: increasing total accruals, boosting inventory levels, or lowering discretionary expenses.</span></span></p><span style="font-family: Times New Roman; font-size: small;"> </span>

The Moderating Effect of Industry Concentration on the Relations Between External Attributes and the Properties of Analyst Earnings Forecast

2013 ◽  
Vol 16 (03) ◽  
pp. 1350019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yu-Cheng Chen ◽  
Chiung-Yao Huang ◽  
Pei-I Chou
Keyword(s):  
Forecast Accuracy ◽  
Earnings Forecasts ◽  
Moderating Effect ◽  
Industry Concentration ◽  
Earnings Forecast ◽  
Moderating Effects ◽  
Forecast Dispersion ◽  
Earnings Surprise ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Analyst Earnings

Based on the work of earlier studies, the main objective of this study is to determine whether the properties of analyst earnings forecast are related to the interaction effects of external attributes and industry concentration that were not the focus of previous research. Specifically, this study examines the relations between external attributions and the properties of analyst earnings forecasts. Furthermore, we explore the moderating effect of industry concentration on the relations between external attributions and the properties of analyst earnings forecasts. Using data from Compustat and I/B/E/S, we provide evidence that analysts' earnings forecast accuracy is lower and the forecast dispersion is larger for firms with more earnings surprise. Firms with more analysts' forecasts covering are associated with higher forecast accuracy, but not necessarily higher forecast dispersion. The moderating effects of industry concentration on the relationships between earnings surprise, the number of estimates covering the company and forecast accuracy are particularly strong. In addition, the moderating effects of industry concentration on the relationship between earnings surprise, the number of estimates covering the company and the forecast dispersion are partially supported. Overall, the industrial concentration factor either magnifies or alleviates the effect of external attributions on analyst's forecast accuracy and forecast dispersion.

scholarly journals Earnings Forecast Optimism For U.S. Vs. Non-U.S. Firms

2013 ◽  
Vol 12 (11) ◽  
pp. 1491
Author(s):  
David Salerno ◽  
Nathan Jeppson
Keyword(s):  
Task Complexity ◽  
Financial Analysts ◽  
Forecast Accuracy ◽  
Earnings Forecasts ◽  
International Investment ◽  
Growth Potential ◽  
Earnings Forecast ◽  
Level Measurement ◽  
Investment Opportunities

This study examines whether financial analysts are more optimistic in their earnings forecasts for non-U.S. firms than they are for U.S. firms. Several areas of research motivate this examination. First, research shows that global economic influences, such as economic downturns and the desire to increase the international content of portfolios, encourage investors to seek out international investment opportunities in new markets. Second, literature also reveals that emerging markets provide superior growth potential; however, analyzing such firms could introduce task complexity which research finds to be associated with lower forecast accuracy. Finally, research shows that financial analysts cover firms of which they have a favorable opinion. Therefore, because of this literature, it is reasonable to expect that analysts make more optimistic forecasts (over-estimate errors) of the earnings potential of the non-U.S. firms that they choose to follow vs. U.S. firms. Using a summary level measurement of forecast optimism, the authors find that analysts forecasts are more optimistic for non-U.S. firms over both short and long-term horizons. In analyst-level tests, it was found that individual analysts produce more optimistic forecasts for non-U.S. firms in relation to their peers in the long-term; however, that optimism is reduced under short horizons. As portfolios become more internationally diversified, the result of this study will be useful to investors seeking analyst guidance about international investment opportunities.

scholarly journals The intra-industry effects of chapter 11 filings: Evidence from analysts’ earnings forecast revisions

2012 ◽  
Vol 9 (4-2) ◽  
pp. 262-268
Author(s):  
Gary L. Caton ◽  
Jeffrey Donaldson ◽  
Jeremy Goh
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Earnings Forecasts ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Bad News ◽  
Earnings Forecast ◽  
Market Reactions ◽  
Forecast Revisions ◽  
Stock Market Reactions ◽  
Future Cash Flows

Shareholders suffer huge losses when firms they own file Chapter 11. Interestingly, even shareholders of rival companies experience statistically significant losses. We examine how the bad news associated with a bankruptcy filing is transferred to the filing firm’s rivals. Using revisions in analysts’ earnings forecasts as a proxy for changes in expected future cash flows, we find that after a bankruptcy filing the market revises downward its cash flow expectations for rivals. Regression analysis confirms a positive relation between changes in expected cash flow and stock market reactions. These findings are consistent with our hypothesis that bad news associated with bankruptcy filings are transferred to rivals through reductions in expected future cash flows

scholarly journals Corporate ownership structure and management earnings forecast

2007 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 247-250
Author(s):  
Toshihiro Umezawa ◽  
Ujo Goto
Keyword(s):  
Financial Reporting ◽  
Ownership Structure ◽  
Financial Institution ◽  
Earnings Forecasts ◽  
Earnings Forecast ◽  
Corporate Ownership ◽  
Management Earnings Forecasts ◽  
Management Earnings Forecast ◽  
Financial Disclosures ◽  
Corporate Ownership Structure

The purpose of this paper is to examine how the structure of corporate ownership impacts the accuracy of management earning forecasts in Japan. An evaluation of the financial reporting reform from 2000 is also presented. As a result, corporate ownership structure variables, such as managerial ownership, financial institution ownership, foreign investment ownership and corporation ownership, are negatively associated with the accuracy of management earnings forecast. We find that corporate ownership structure makes the manager announce more accurate management earnings forecasts. In addition, the reform of financial reporting system in 2000 has an influence on the quality of financial disclosures

Audit Quality and Properties of Analyst Earnings Forecasts

2008 ◽  
Vol 83 (2) ◽  
pp. 327-349 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bruce K. Behn ◽  
Jong-Hag Choi ◽  
Tony Kang
Keyword(s):  
Financial Reporting ◽  
Audit Quality ◽  
Forecast Accuracy ◽  
Reporting Quality ◽  
Earnings Forecasts ◽  
Earnings Forecast ◽  
Forecast Dispersion ◽  
Industry Specialization ◽  
Big 5 ◽  
Analyst Earnings

Under the assumption that audit quality relates positively to unobservable financial reporting quality, we investigate whether audit quality is associated with the predictability of accounting earnings by focusing on analyst earnings forecast properties. The evidence shows that analysts' earnings forecast accuracy is higher and the forecast dispersion is smaller for firms audited by a Big 5 auditor. We further find that auditor industry specialization is associated with higher forecast accuracy and less forecast dispersion in the non-Big 5 auditor sample but not in the Big 5 auditor sample. Overall, our results suggest that high-quality audit provided by Big 5 auditors and industry specialist non-Big 5 auditors is associated with better forecasting performance by analysts.

The informativeness of impression management − financial analysts and rhetorical style of CEO letters

2019 ◽  
Vol 31 (3) ◽  
pp. 462-496 ◽  
Author(s):  
Beibei Yan ◽  
Walter Aerts ◽  
James Thewissen
Keyword(s):  
Impression Management ◽  
Financial Analysts ◽  
Forecast Accuracy ◽  
Earnings Forecasts ◽  
Earnings Forecast ◽  
Management Communication ◽  
Self Presentation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Rhetorical Features ◽  
Occurrence Patterns

Purpose This paper aims to investigate the informativeness of rhetorical impression management patterns of CEO letters and examines whether these rhetorical features affect financial analysts’ forecasting behaviour. Design/methodology/approach The authors use textual analysis on a sample of 526 CEO letters of US firms and apply factor analysis on individual linguistic style measures to identify co-occurrence patterns of style features. Findings The authors identify three holistic style patterns (assertive acclaiming, cautious plausibility-based framing and logic-based rationalizing) and find that assertive rhetorical feature in CEO letters is negatively related with the dispersion of financial analysts’ earnings forecasts and positively associated with earnings forecast accuracy. CEOs’ use of a rationalizing rhetorical pattern tends to decrease the dispersion of financial analysts’ earnings, whereas a cautious plausibility-based rhetorical position is only marginally instrumental in getting more accurate earnings predictions. Practical implications Whilst impression management communication is often theorized as manipulative and void of real information content, the findings suggest that impression management serves both self-presentation and information-sharing purposes. Originality/value This paper elaborates on the co-occurrence of style characteristics in management communication and is a first attempt to validate the external ramifications of holistic style profiles of corporate narratives by focusing on an economic target audience.

Absolute Forecast Errors of Earnings in Malaysian IPO Prospectuses: The Impact of Ethnic Diversity

2014 ◽  
Vol 68 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammed Abdullah Ammer ◽  
Nurwati A. Ahmad-Zaluki
Keyword(s):  
Ethnic Diversity ◽  
Boards Of Directors ◽  
Forecast Error ◽  
Forecast Accuracy ◽  
Earnings Forecasts ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Audit Committees ◽  
Earnings Forecast ◽  
Forecast Errors ◽  
The Impact

The main focus of this paper is the earnings forecast, a vital information included in IPO prospectus. Specifically, our paper examined the impact of ethnic diversity groups on the boards of directors and audit committees in terms of earnings forecast accuracy. We are motivated by the lack of prior studies related to investigating IPO earnings forecast. Cross-sectional Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) modeling was conducted on 190 Malaysian IPOs from 2002 to 2012. For the evaluation of earnings forecast accuracy, we mathematically used the metric of Absolute Forecast Error (AFER). Moreover, for the test of robustness, we used the metric of Squared Forecast Error (SQFER) as error measurement, as it mostly deals with large errors. The empirical results indicate that the ethnic diversity groups on boards and audit committees have an impact on the accuracy of earnings forecasts. However, the evidence is significant for Chinese and Malay serving on boards but insignificant in terms of Chinese and Malay serving on audit committee. The findings indicate that multi-ethnic groups in Malaysian IPO companies could hinder the capability of IPO companies to achieve accurate earnings forecasts in their prospectuses.

scholarly journals Are Analysts Overoptimistic about the Prospects of Sin Firms?

2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 99 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jin Zhang ◽  
Haeyoung Shin
Keyword(s):  
Stock Price ◽  
Forecast Accuracy ◽  
Earnings Forecasts ◽  
Positive Association ◽  
Negative Association ◽  
Analyst Forecast ◽  
Earnings Forecast ◽  
Absolute Value ◽  
Forecast Bias ◽  
The Difference

We investigate the association between the bias and accuracy of consensus analysts’ earnings forecasts and whether a firm is a sin firm or not. We measure analyst forecast bias as the difference between the consensus earnings forecast and the actual earnings, scaled by the stock price. We measure analyst forecast accuracy as the negative of the absolute value of the difference between the firms’ forecasted and actual earnings, scaled by the stock price. We find a positive association between the level of forecast optimism and sin firm membership. We find a negative association between the level of forecast accuracy and sin firm membership. Overall, these results imply that analysts tend to issue over-optimistic and less accurate earnings forecasts on sin firms.

Management Earnings Forecasts: A Review and Framework

2008 ◽  
Vol 22 (3) ◽  
pp. 315-338 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Eric Hirst ◽  
Lisa Koonce ◽  
Shankar Venkataraman
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Research ◽  
Earnings Forecasts ◽  
Earnings Forecast ◽  
Management Earnings Forecasts ◽  
Current Period ◽  
Management Earnings Forecast ◽  
Potential Interactions ◽  
View Management ◽  
Three Components

SYNOPSIS: In this paper, we provide a framework in which to view management earnings forecasts. Specifically, we categorize earnings forecasts as having three components—antecedents, characteristics, and consequences—that roughly correspond to the timeline associated with an earnings forecast. By evaluating management earnings forecast research within the context of this framework, we render three conclusions. First, forecast characteristics appear to be the least understood component of earnings forecasts—both in terms of theory and empirical research—even though it is the component over which managers have the most control. Second, much of the prior research focuses on how one forecast antecedent or characteristic influences forecast consequences and does not study potential interactions among the three components. Third, much of the prior research ignores the iterative nature of management earnings forecasts—that is, forecast consequences of the current period influence antecedents and chosen characteristics in subsequent periods. Implications for researchers, educators, managers, investors, and regulators are provided.

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