scholarly journals Analysts Earnings Forecast Accuracy And Activity: A Time-Series Analysis

2011 ◽  
Vol 7 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark Myring ◽  
William Wrege
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Forecast Accuracy ◽  
Earnings Forecasts ◽  
Earnings Forecast ◽  
Sample Period ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
Specific Factors ◽  
Annual Earnings

We examine time-series variations in the accuracy of analysts’ earnings forecasts and analyst-specific factors that may explain these variations.  Our analysis shows that the accuracy of analysts’ annual earnings forecast accuracy has increased over our sample period (1984-2006).  In addition, forecasts have become more timely and frequent and analysts tend to issue forecasts for more consecutive years before being replaced.  We also find evidence that analysts issue forecasts for fewer companies per year and have a greater degree of industry-specific specialization.  Results of our analysis suggest that changes in analyst-specific characteristics have enhanced analysts’ ability to make accurate forecasts.

I/B/E/S Reported Actual EPS and Analysts' Inferred Actual EPS

2012 ◽  
Vol 88 (3) ◽  
pp. 853-880 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lawrence D. Brown ◽  
Stephannie Larocque
Keyword(s):  
Majority Rule ◽  
Forecast Accuracy ◽  
Earnings Forecasts ◽  
Analyst Forecast ◽  
Earnings Forecast ◽  
Sample Period ◽  
Forecast Dispersion ◽  
Forecast Revisions ◽  
Earnings Surprises ◽  
Analyst Earnings

ABSTRACT Users of I/B/E/S data generally act as if I/B/E/S reported actual earnings represent the earnings analysts were forecasting when they issued their earnings estimates. For example, when assessing analyst forecast accuracy, users of I/B/E/S data compare analysts' forecasts of EPS with I/B/E/S reported actual EPS. I/B/E/S states that it calculates actuals using a “majority rule,” indicating that its actuals often do not represent the earnings that all individual analysts were forecasting. We introduce a method for measuring analyst inferred actuals, and we assess how often I/B/E/S actuals do not represent analyst inferred actuals. We find that I/B/E/S reported Q1 actual EPS differs from analyst inferred actual Q1 EPS by at least one penny 39 percent of the time during our sample period, 36.5 percent of the time when only one analyst follows the firm (hence, this consensus forecast is based on the “majority rule”), and 50 percent of the time during the last three years of our sample period. We document two adverse consequences of this phenomenon. First, studies failing to recognize that I/B/E/S EPS actuals often differ from analyst inferred actuals are likely to obtain less accurate analyst earnings forecasts, smaller analyst earnings forecast revisions conditional on earnings surprises, greater analyst forecast dispersion, and smaller market reaction to earnings surprises than do studies adjusting for these differences. Second, studies failing to recognize that I/B/E/S EPS actuals often differ from analyst inferred actuals may make erroneous inferences.

Dynamical Peculiarities of Concatenational Changes in Functional Cardiovascular Parameters

2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (82) ◽  
Author(s):  
Eurelija Venskaitytė ◽  
Jonas Poderys ◽  
Tadas Česnaitis
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Functional State ◽  
The Body ◽  
Functional Changes ◽  
High Intensity Training ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
Greco Roman ◽  
St Segment ◽  
Standard Lead

Research  background  and  hypothesis.  Traditional  time  series  analysis  techniques,  which  are  also  used  for the analysis of cardiovascular signals, do not reveal the relationship between the  changes in the indices recorded associated with the multiscale and chaotic structure of the tested object, which allows establishing short-and long-term structural and functional changes.Research aim was to reveal the dynamical peculiarities of interactions of cardiovascular system indices while evaluating the functional state of track-and-field athletes and Greco-Roman wrestlers.Research methods. Twenty two subjects participated in the study, their average age of 23.5 ± 1.7 years. During the study standard 12 lead electrocardiograms (ECG) were recorded. The following ECG parameters were used in the study: duration of RR interval taken from the II standard lead, duration of QRS complex, duration of JT interval and amplitude of ST segment taken from the V standard lead.Research  results.  Significant  differences  were  found  between  inter-parametric  connections  of  ST  segment amplitude and JT interval duration at the pre and post-training testing. Observed changes at different hierarchical levels of the body systems revealed inadequate cardiac metabolic processes, leading to changes in the metabolic rate of the myocardium and reflected in the dynamics of all investigated interactions.Discussion and conclusions. It has been found that peculiarities of the interactions of ECG indices interactions show the exposure of the  functional changes in the body at the onset of the workload. The alterations of the functional state of the body and the signs of fatigue, after athletes performed two high intensity training sessions per day, can be assessed using the approach of the evaluation of interactions between functional variables. Therefore the evaluation of the interactions of physiological signals by using time series analysis methods is suitable for the observation of these processes and the functional state of the body.Keywords: electrocardiogram, time series, functional state.

The Contribution of Foreign Direct Investment for Economic Growth of Ethiopia: Time Series Analysis

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (02) ◽  
Author(s):  
Addissie Melak
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Policy Framework ◽  
Annual Growth Rate ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
Integration Test

Economic growth of countries is one of the fundamental questions in economics. Most African countries are opening their economies for welcoming of foreign investors. As such Ethiopia, like many African countries took measures to attract and improve foreign direct investment. The purpose of this study is to examine the contribution of foreign direct investment (FDI) for economic growth of Ethiopia over the period of 1981-2013. The study shows an overview of Ethiopian economy and investment environment by the help of descriptive and econometric methods of analysis to establish empirical investigation for the contribution of FDI on Ethiopian economy. OLS method of time series analysis is employed to analyse the data. The stationary of the variables have been checked by using Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) Unit Root test and hence they are stationery at first difference. The co- integration test also shows that there is a long run relationship between the dependent and independent variables. Accordingly, the finding of the study shows that FDI, GDP per capita, exchange rate, total investment as percentage of GDP, inflow of FDI stock, trade as percentage of GDP, annual growth rate of GDP and liberalization of the economy have positive impact on Ethiopian GDP. Whereas Gross fixed domestic investment, inflows of FDI and Gross capital formation influence economic growth of Ethiopia negatively. This finding suggests that there should be better policy framework to attract and improve the volume of FDI through creating conducive environment for investment.

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