Abstract
This article solves the problem of a quantitative assessment of the occurrence of destruction in the intersystem interactions of the transport system and the electrical system of the seaport, in the conditions of the technological process in the seaport, which indicates its significant impact on the electrical system, as a result of which the reliability of the berthing power line is significantly reduced. The intersystem interactions that occur during the implementation of the technological process, as experience shows, are the causes of critical situations that occur at the border of areas of different physical nature, and the consequences are recorded, in the case under consideration, in the electrical system. A mathematical model describing intersystem destruction in quantitative form is presented in this paper using a logical-probabilistic model that reflects internal and external relationships. In the object under study, the destructive cause (collision) and the consequence (accumulation of electrical damage in the insulation of the cable line) are in the same object (the mooring power supply unit), and this is limited to the effects of intersystem destruction. In such a statement, the object of power supply of the technological process and equipment is considered as a composite object containing a cable line and an electric contact column. The problem being formulated is an important and relevant scientific task, which includes not only the question of identifying the causes of increased electrical wear of the power line, but also the development of methods for obtaining quantitative results, and in practical terms also involves the diagnosis of the technical condition of electrical equipment and timely preventive maintenance.
RISK ANALYSIS METHOD FOR FORECASTING THE TECHNICAL CONDITION OF ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT OF TRANSFORMER SUBSTATIONS
