scholarly journals Impact of Climate Change on Streamflow Hydrology in Headwater Catchments of the Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abeyou W. Worqlul ◽  
Yihun T. Dile ◽  
Essayas K. Ayana ◽  
Jaehak Jeong ◽  
Anwar A. Adem ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Emission Scenario ◽  
Baseline Period ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Nile Basin ◽  
Future Time ◽  
Time Horizons ◽  
Blue Nile Basin ◽  
The Impact

This study assessed the impact of climate change on water availability and variability in two subbasins in the Upper Blue Nile Basin of Ethiopia. Downscaled future climate data from HadCM3 of A2 (medium-high) and B2 (medium-low) emission scenarios were compared to the observed climate data for a baseline period (1961 to 1990). The emission scenario representing the baseline period was used to predict future climate and as input to a hydrologic model to estimate the impact of future climate on the streamflow at three future time horizons 2020 - 2045, 2045 - 2070 and 2070 - 2100. Results suggest that medium-high emission scenario best represents the local rainfall and temperature pattern. With A2 scenario, daily maximum/minimum temperature will increase throughout the future time horizons. The minimum and maximum temperature will increase by 3.6oC and 2.4oC, respectively, towards the end of the 21st century. Consequently, potential evapotranspiration is expected to increase by 7.8%, though trends in annual rainfall do not show statistically meaningful trends between years. A notable seasonality was found in the rainfall pattern such that dry season rainfall amounts are likely to increase and wet season rainfall to decrease. The hydrological model indicated that the local hydrology of the study watersheds will be significantly influenced by climate change. Overall, at the end of the century, streamflow will increase in both rivers by up to 64% in dry seasons and decrease by 19% in wet seasons.

scholarly journals Future climate change and impacts on water resources in the Upper Blue Nile basin

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gebiyaw Sitotaw Takele ◽  
Geremew Sahilu Gebre ◽  
Azage Gebreyohannes Gebremariam ◽  
Agizew Nigussie Engida
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Nile Basin ◽  
Blue Nile ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Blue Nile Basin ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Upper Blue Nile Basin

Abstract This study aims to assess the impact of climate change on the water resources of the Upper Blue Nile basin using an integrated climate and hydrological model. The impact of climate change on water resources is being assessed using the regional climate model (RCM) under the representative concentration pathway (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenarios and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model. Future climate scenarios have been developed for the 2030s (2021–2040) and the 2050s (2041–2060). The study found that the projected rainfall shows a decreasing trend and is not statistically significant, while the temperature shows an increasing trend and is statistically significant. Due to the sharp rise in temperature, the annual evapotranspiration increased by about 10.4%. This and the declining trend of rainfall will reduce streamflow up to 54%, surface runoff up to 31%, and water yield up to 31%. Climate change causes seasonal and annual fluctuations in the water balance components. However, the projected seasonal changes are much greater than the annual changes. Therefore, the results of this study will be useful to basin planners, policymakers, and water resources managers in developing adaptation strategies to offset the adverse effects of climate change in the Upper Blue Nile basin.

scholarly journals Simulation of future climate scenarios and the impact on the water availability in southern Brazil

2021 ◽  
Vol 43 ◽  
pp. e56026
Author(s):  
Gabriela Leite Neves ◽  
Jorim Sousa das Virgens Filho ◽  
Maysa de Lima Leite ◽  
Frederico Fabio Mauad
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Southern Brazil ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
The Impact

Water is an essential natural resource that is being impacted by climate change. Thus, knowledge of future water availability conditions around the globe becomes necessary. Based on that, this study aimed to simulate future climate scenarios and evaluate the impact on water balance in southern Brazil. Daily data of rainfall and air temperature (maximum and minimum) were used. The meteorological data were collected in 28 locations over 30 years (1980-2009). For the data simulation, we used the climate data stochastic generator PGECLIMA_R. It was considered two scenarios of the fifth report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and a scenario with the historical data trend. The water balance estimates were performed for the current data and the simulated data, through the methodology of Thornthwaite and Mather (1955). The moisture indexes were spatialized by the kriging method. These indexes were chosen as the parameters to represent the water conditions in different situations. The region assessed presented a high variability in water availability among locations; however, it did not present high water deficiency values, even with climate change. Overall, it was observed a reduction of moisture index in most sites and in all scenarios assessed, especially in the northern region when compared to the other regions. The second scenario of the IPCC (the worst situation) promoting higher reductions and dry conditions for the 2099 year. The impacts of climate change on water availability, identified in this study, can affect the general society, therefore, they must be considered in the planning and management of water resources, especially in the regional context

scholarly journals Influence of downscaling methods in projecting climate change impact on hydrological extremes of upper Blue Nile basin

2013 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 7857-7896 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. T. Taye ◽  
P. Willems
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Weather Generator ◽  
Nile Basin ◽  
Blue Nile ◽  
Downscaling Method ◽  
Blue Nile Basin ◽  
Good For ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Upper Blue Nile Basin

Abstract. Methods from two statistical downscaling categories were used to investigate the impact of climate change on high rainfall and flow extremes of the upper Blue Nile basin. The main downscaling differences considered were on the rainfall variable while a generally similar method was applied for temperature. The applied downscaling methods are a stochastic weather generator, LARS-WG, and an advanced change factor method, the Quantile Perturbation Method (QPM). These were applied on 10 GCM runs and two emission scenarios (A1B and B1). The downscaled rainfall and evapotranspiration were input into a calibrated and validated lumped conceptual model. The future simulations were conducted for 2050s and 2090s horizon and were compared with 1980–2000 control period. From the results all downscaling methods agree in projecting increase in temperature for both periods. Nevertheless, the change signal on the rainfall was dependent on the climate model and the downscaling method applied. LARS weather generator was good for monthly statistics although caution has to be taken when it is applied for impact analysis dealing with extremes, as it showed a deviation from the extreme value distribution's tail shape. Contrary, the QPM method was good for extreme cases but only for good quality daily climate model data. The study showed the choice of downscaling method is an important factor to be considered and results based on one downscaling method may not give the full picture. Regardless, the projections on the extreme high flows and the mean main rainy season flow mostly showed a decreasing change signal for both periods. This is either by decreasing rainfall or increasing evapotranspiration depending on the downscaling method.

scholarly journals Assessment of Impacts of Climate Change and Adaptation Measures for Maize Production in East Sikkim, India

2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 15-27
Author(s):  
Proloy Deb ◽  
S. Babel
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Maize Yield ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Yield Response ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
North East ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

An investigation was carried out to assess the impacts of climate change on rainfed maize yield using a yield response to water stress model (AquaCrop) and to identify suitable adaptation options to minimize the negative impacts on maize yield in East Sikkim, North East India. Crop management and yield data was collected from the field experimental plots for calibration and validation of the model for the study area. The future climate data was developed for two IPCC emission scenarios A2 and B2 based on the global climate model HadCM3 with downscaling of climate to finer spatial resolution using the statistical downscaling model, SDSM. The impact study revealed that there is an expected reduction in maize yield of 12.8, 28.3 and 33.9% for the A2 scenario and 7.5, 19.9 and 29.9% for the B2 scenario during 2012-40, 2041-70 and 2071-99 respectively compared to the average yield simulated during the period of 1961-1990 with observed climate data. The maize yield of same variety under future climate can be maintained or improved from current level by changing planting dates, providing supplement irrigation and managing optimum nutrient.Journal of Hydrology and Meteorology, Vol. 9(1) 2015, p.15-27

scholarly journals Quantifying the impact of ocean acidification on our future climate

2014 ◽  
Vol 11 (14) ◽  
pp. 3965-3983 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. J. Matear ◽  
A. Lenton
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Ocean Acidification ◽  
Observational Studies ◽  
Emission Scenario ◽  
Biogeochemical Cycles ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Atmospheric Co2 ◽  
First Order ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Ocean acidification (OA) is the consequence of rising atmospheric CO2 levels, and it is occurring in conjunction with global warming. Observational studies show that OA will impact ocean biogeochemical cycles. Here, we use an Earth system model under the RCP8.5 emission scenario to evaluate and quantify the first-order impacts of OA on marine biogeochemical cycles, and its potential feedback on our future climate. We find that OA impacts have only a small impact on the future atmospheric CO2 (less than 45 ppm) and global warming (less than a 0.25 K) by 2100. While the climate change feedbacks are small, OA impacts may significantly alter the distribution of biological production and remineralisation, which would alter the dissolved oxygen distribution in the ocean interior. Our results demonstrate that the consequences of OA will not be through its impact on climate change, but on how it impacts the flow of energy in marine ecosystems, which may significantly impact their productivity, composition and diversity.

scholarly journals Impact of climate change on the hydrology of Blue Nile basin, Ethiopia: a review

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 1539-1550 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gebre Gelete ◽  
Huseyin Gokcekus ◽  
Tagesse Gichamo
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Nile River ◽  
Nile Basin ◽  
Blue Nile ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Blue Nile Basin ◽  
Blue Nile River Basin ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Climate change alters the spacial and temporal availability of water resources by affecting the hydrologic cycle. The main objective of this paper is to review the climate change effect on the water resources of the Blue Nile River, Ethiopia. The impact of climate change on water resources is highly significant as all natural ecosystems and humans are heavily dependent on water. It alters precipitation, temperature, and streamflow of the Blue Nile river basin which is threatening the lives and livelihoods of people and life-supporting systems. Rainfall within the Blue Nile river basin is highly erratic and seasonal due to it being located in the inter-tropical convergent zone. The temperature and sediment load are shown to increase in the future while the rainfall and streamflow are decreasing. The Blue Nile basin is characterized by highly erosive rainfall, erodible soil, and shrinking forest cover. Therefore, mitigation and adaptation measures should be applied by considering these characteristics of the basin. Watershed management methods like afforestation and water conservation are recommended to reduce the impact on the Blue Nile basin.

scholarly journals Coupled application of R and WetSpa models for assessment of climate change impact on streamflow of Werie Catchment, Tigray, Ethiopia

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Selam Kidanemariam ◽  
Haddush Goitom ◽  
Yigzaw Desta
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Baseline Period ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Calibration Data ◽  
Climate Variables ◽  
Emission Scenarios ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Validation Data ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Rcp 8.5

Abstract This research assesses the streamflow response of Werie River to climate change. Baseline (1980–2009) climate data of precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature were analyzed using delta based statistical downscaling approach in R software packages to predict future 90 years (2010–2099) periods under two emission scenarios of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5, indicating medium and extremely high emission scenarios respectively. Generated future climate variables indicate Werie will experience a significant increase in precipitation, and maximum and minimum air temperature for both RCPs. Further, Water and Energy Transfer between Soil, Plants, and Atmosphere (WetSpa) was applied to assess the water balance of Werie River. The WetSpa model reproduced the streamflow well with performance statistics values of R2 = 0.84 and 0.85, Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency = 0.72 and 0.72, and model bias = –0.14 and –0.15 for the calibration data set of 1999–2010 and validation data of 2011–2014 respectively. Finally, by taking the downscaled future climate variables as input, WetSpa future prediction shows that there will an increase in the Werie catchment mean annual streamflow up to 29.6% for RCP 4.5 and 35.6% for RCP 8.5 compared to the baseline period.

scholarly journals Evaluation of climate change impact on Blue Nile Basin Cascade Reservoir operation – case study of proposed reservoirs in the Main Blue Nile River Basin, Ethiopia

2015 ◽  
Vol 366 ◽  
pp. 133-133 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Wondimagegnehu ◽  
K. Tadele
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Impact ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Hydropower Station ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Nile Basin ◽  
Blue Nile ◽  
Blue Nile Basin ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
Change Impact

Abstract. This study mainly deals with evaluation of climate change impact on operation of the Blue Nile Basin Cascade Reservoir. To evaluate the impact of climate change, climate change scenarios of evapotranspiration and precipitation were developed for three periods. Output of ECHAM5 with RCM for the A1B emissions scenario were used to develop the future climate change scenarios. A hydrological model, HEC-HMS, was used to simulate current and future inflow volume to the reservoirs. The projected future climate shows an increasing trend in both maximum and minimum temperature and in evapotranspiration, but precipitation shows a fluctuating trend in the next century. Relative to the current condition, the average annual open water evaporation for the Beko-Abo and Mandaya reservoirs show increasing trend whereas the Border Reservoir shows a decreasing trend. Comparison of the base period and the future period average annual inflow volume shows an increase for Beko-Abo and Mandaya, but at Border Reservoir a decrease in volume is observed. The average annual power generation projected using HEC-ReSim also shows an increase at the Beko-Abo and Mandaya hydropower station, whereas a slight decrease occurs for Border hydropower station. On average, the time based and volumetric reliability of the reservoirs was estimated to be more than 90%. The resilience of the reservoirs is below 50% and their vulnerability is less than 50%. Therefore, these performance indices reveal good performance of the reservoirs except regarding the speed of recovery of the reservoirs from failure because the reservoirs will not able to recover rapidly from failure to a safe state.

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