scholarly journals Simulation of future climate scenarios and the impact on the water availability in southern Brazil

2021 ◽  
Vol 43 ◽  
pp. e56026
Author(s):  
Gabriela Leite Neves ◽  
Jorim Sousa das Virgens Filho ◽  
Maysa de Lima Leite ◽  
Frederico Fabio Mauad
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Southern Brazil ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
The Impact

Water is an essential natural resource that is being impacted by climate change. Thus, knowledge of future water availability conditions around the globe becomes necessary. Based on that, this study aimed to simulate future climate scenarios and evaluate the impact on water balance in southern Brazil. Daily data of rainfall and air temperature (maximum and minimum) were used. The meteorological data were collected in 28 locations over 30 years (1980-2009). For the data simulation, we used the climate data stochastic generator PGECLIMA_R. It was considered two scenarios of the fifth report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and a scenario with the historical data trend. The water balance estimates were performed for the current data and the simulated data, through the methodology of Thornthwaite and Mather (1955). The moisture indexes were spatialized by the kriging method. These indexes were chosen as the parameters to represent the water conditions in different situations. The region assessed presented a high variability in water availability among locations; however, it did not present high water deficiency values, even with climate change. Overall, it was observed a reduction of moisture index in most sites and in all scenarios assessed, especially in the northern region when compared to the other regions. The second scenario of the IPCC (the worst situation) promoting higher reductions and dry conditions for the 2099 year. The impacts of climate change on water availability, identified in this study, can affect the general society, therefore, they must be considered in the planning and management of water resources, especially in the regional context

Timothy yield and nutritive value with a three-harvest system under the projected future climate in Canada

2014 ◽  
Vol 94 (2) ◽  
pp. 213-222 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qi Jing ◽  
Gilles Bélanger ◽  
Budong Qian ◽  
Vern Baron
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Nutritive Value ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Phleum Pratense ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Stochastic Weather Generator ◽  
The Impact

Jing, Q., Bélanger, G., Qian, B. and Baron, V. 2014. Timothy yield and nutritive value with a three-harvest system under the projected future climate in Canada. Can. J. Plant Sci. 94: 213–222. Timothy (Phleum pratense L.) is harvested twice annually in Canada but with projected climate change, an additional harvest may be possible. Our objective was to evaluate the impact on timothy dry matter (DM) yield and key nutritive value attributes of shifting from a two- to a three-harvest system under projected future climate conditions at 10 sites across Canada. Future climate scenarios were generated with a stochastic weather generator (AAFC-WG) using two global climate models under the forcing of two Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission scenarios and, then, used by the CATIMO (Canadian Timothy Model) grass model to simulate DM yield and key nutritive value attributes. Under future climate scenarios (2040–2069), the additional harvest and the resulting three-harvest system are expected to increase annual DM yield (+0.46 to +2.47 Mg DM ha−1) compared with a two-harvest system across Canada but the yield increment will on average be greater in eastern Canada (1.88 Mg DM ha−1) and Agassiz (2.02 Mg DM ha−1) than in the prairie provinces of Canada (0.84 Mg DM ha−1). The DM yield of the first harvest in a three-harvest system is expected to be less than in the two-harvest system, while that of the second harvest would be greater. Decreases in average neutral detergent fibre (NDF) concentration (−19 g kg−1 DM) and digestibility (dNDF, −5 g kg−1 NDF) are also expected with the three-harvest system under future conditions. Our results indicate that timothy will take advantage of projected climate change, through taking a third harvest, thereby increasing annual DM production.

scholarly journals Dynamics of soil organic carbon in the steppes of Russia and Kazakhstan under past and future climate and land use

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Susanne Rolinski ◽  
Alexander V. Prishchepov ◽  
Georg Guggenberger ◽  
Norbert Bischoff ◽  
Irina Kurganova ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Organic Carbon ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Soil Organic Carbon ◽  
Arable Land ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
The Impact

AbstractChanges in land use and climate are the main drivers of change in soil organic matter contents. We investigated the impact of the largest policy-induced land conversion to arable land, the Virgin Lands Campaign (VLC), from 1954 to 1963, of the massive cropland abandonment after 1990 and of climate change on soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in steppes of Russia and Kazakhstan. We simulated carbon budgets from the pre-VLC period (1900) until 2100 using a dynamic vegetation model to assess the impacts of observed land-use change as well as future climate and land-use change scenarios. The simulations suggest for the entire VLC region (266 million hectares) that the historic cropland expansion resulted in emissions of 1.6⋅ 1015 g (= 1.6 Pg) carbon between 1950 and 1965 compared to 0.6 Pg in a scenario without the expansion. From 1990 to 2100, climate change alone is projected to cause emissions of about 1.8 (± 1.1) Pg carbon. Hypothetical recultivation of the cropland that has been abandoned after the fall of the Soviet Union until 2050 may cause emissions of 3.5 (± 0.9) Pg carbon until 2100, whereas the abandonment of all cropland until 2050 would lead to sequestration of 1.8 (± 1.2) Pg carbon. For the climate scenarios based on SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) emission pathways, SOC declined only moderately for constant land use but substantially with further cropland expansion. The variation of SOC in response to the climate scenarios was smaller than that in response to the land-use scenarios. This suggests that the effects of land-use change on SOC dynamics may become as relevant as those of future climate change in the Eurasian steppes.

scholarly journals The Potential Impact of Climate Change on Oat Lodging in the UK and Republic of Ireland

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-16 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammadreza Mohammadi ◽  
John Finnan ◽  
Chris Baker ◽  
Mark Sterling
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Republic Of Ireland ◽  
Growing Period ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Double Exponential ◽  
The Republic ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

This paper examines the impact that climate change may have on the lodging of oats in the Republic of Ireland and the UK. Through the consideration of a novel lodging model representing the motion of an oat plant due to the interaction of wind and rain and integrating future predictions of wind and rainfall due to climate change, appropriate conclusions have been made. In order to provide meteorological data for the lodging model, wind and rainfall inputs are analysed using 30 years’ time series corresponding to peak lodging months (June and July) from 38 meteorological stations in the United Kingdom and the Irish Republic, which enables the relevant probability density functions (PDFs) to be established. Moreover, climate data for the next six decades in the British Isles produced by UK climate change projections (UKCP18) are analysed, and future wind and rainfall PDFs are obtained. It is observed that the predicted changes likely to occur during the key growing period (June to July) in the next 30 years are in keeping with variations, which can occur due to different husbandry treatments/plant varieties. In addition, the utility of a double exponential function for representing the rainfall probability has been observed with appropriate values for the constants given.

scholarly journals Impact of climate change on Cannonsville Reservoir thermal structure in the New York City water supply

2012 ◽  
Vol 47 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 389-405 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. R. Samal ◽  
D. C. Pierson ◽  
E. Schneiderman ◽  
Y. Huang ◽  
J. S. Read ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Thermal Stratification ◽  
Thermal Structure ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Structure Stability ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Coupled Models ◽  
Baseline Conditions

Global Circulation Model values of mean daily air temperature, wind speed and solar radiation for the 2081–2100 period are used to produce change factors that are applied to a 39 year record of local meteorological data to produce future climate scenarios. These climate scenarios are used to drive two separate, but coupled models: the Generalized Watershed Loading Functions-Variable Source Area model in order to simulate reservoir tributary inflows, and a one-dimensional reservoir hydrothermal model used to evaluate changes in reservoir thermal structure in response to changes in meteorological forcing and changes in simulated inflow. Comparisons between simulations based on present-day climate data (baseline conditions) and future simulations (change-factor adjusted baseline conditions) are used to evaluate the development and breakdown of thermal stratification, as well as a number of metrics that describe reservoir thermal structure, stability and mixing. Both epilimnion and hypolimnion water temperatures are projected to increase. Indices of mixing and stability show changes that are consistent with the simulated changes in reservoir thermal structure. Simulations suggest that stratification will begin earlier and the reservoir will exhibit longer and more stable periods of thermal stratification under future climate conditions.

scholarly journals Assessment of Impacts of Climate Change and Adaptation Measures for Maize Production in East Sikkim, India

2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 15-27
Author(s):  
Proloy Deb ◽  
S. Babel
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Maize Yield ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Yield Response ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
North East ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

An investigation was carried out to assess the impacts of climate change on rainfed maize yield using a yield response to water stress model (AquaCrop) and to identify suitable adaptation options to minimize the negative impacts on maize yield in East Sikkim, North East India. Crop management and yield data was collected from the field experimental plots for calibration and validation of the model for the study area. The future climate data was developed for two IPCC emission scenarios A2 and B2 based on the global climate model HadCM3 with downscaling of climate to finer spatial resolution using the statistical downscaling model, SDSM. The impact study revealed that there is an expected reduction in maize yield of 12.8, 28.3 and 33.9% for the A2 scenario and 7.5, 19.9 and 29.9% for the B2 scenario during 2012-40, 2041-70 and 2071-99 respectively compared to the average yield simulated during the period of 1961-1990 with observed climate data. The maize yield of same variety under future climate can be maintained or improved from current level by changing planting dates, providing supplement irrigation and managing optimum nutrient.Journal of Hydrology and Meteorology, Vol. 9(1) 2015, p.15-27

scholarly journals Climate–Carbon Cycle Feedback Analysis: Results from the C4MIP Model Intercomparison

2006 ◽  
Vol 19 (14) ◽  
pp. 3337-3353 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Friedlingstein ◽  
P. Cox ◽  
R. Betts ◽  
L. Bopp ◽  
W. von Bloh ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Carbon Cycle ◽  
Net Primary Productivity ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Climate Feedback ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Ocean Carbon Cycle ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Ocean Carbon ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Eleven coupled climate–carbon cycle models used a common protocol to study the coupling between climate change and the carbon cycle. The models were forced by historical emissions and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 anthropogenic emissions of CO2 for the 1850–2100 time period. For each model, two simulations were performed in order to isolate the impact of climate change on the land and ocean carbon cycle, and therefore the climate feedback on the atmospheric CO2 concentration growth rate. There was unanimous agreement among the models that future climate change will reduce the efficiency of the earth system to absorb the anthropogenic carbon perturbation. A larger fraction of anthropogenic CO2 will stay airborne if climate change is accounted for. By the end of the twenty-first century, this additional CO2 varied between 20 and 200 ppm for the two extreme models, the majority of the models lying between 50 and 100 ppm. The higher CO2 levels led to an additional climate warming ranging between 0.1° and 1.5°C. All models simulated a negative sensitivity for both the land and the ocean carbon cycle to future climate. However, there was still a large uncertainty on the magnitude of these sensitivities. Eight models attributed most of the changes to the land, while three attributed it to the ocean. Also, a majority of the models located the reduction of land carbon uptake in the Tropics. However, the attribution of the land sensitivity to changes in net primary productivity versus changes in respiration is still subject to debate; no consensus emerged among the models.

scholarly journals Categorization of South Tyrolean Built Heritage with Consideration of the Impact of Climate

Climate ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (12) ◽  
pp. 139 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lingjun Hao ◽  
Daniel Herrera-Avellanosa ◽  
Claudio Del Pero ◽  
Alexandra Troi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Adaptation Strategies ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Historic Buildings ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
The Past ◽  
Built Heritage ◽  
Plan Adaptation ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Design Construction

Climate change imposes great challenges on the built heritage sector by increasing the risks of energy inefficiency, indoor overheating, and moisture-related damage to the envelope. Therefore, it is urgent to assess these risks and plan adaptation strategies for historic buildings. These activities must be based on a strong knowledge of the main building categories. Moreover, before adapting a historic building to future climate, it is necessary to understand how the past climate influenced its design, construction, and eventual categories. This knowledge will help when estimating the implication of climate change on historic buildings. This study aims at identifying building categories, which will be the basis for further risk assessment and adaptation plans, while at the same time analyzing the historical interaction between climate and human dwelling. The results show some correlations between building categories and climate. Therefore, it is necessary to use different archetypes to represent the typical buildings in different climate zones. Moreover, these correlations imply a need to investigate the capability of the climate-responsive features in future climate scenarios and to explore possible further risks and adaptation strategies.

scholarly journals Spatial and temporal variability studies of precipitation considering the future climate scenarios, with emphasis on extreme events

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luiza Marchezan Bezerra ◽  
Ana Maria Heuminski de Avila ◽  
Vânia Rosa Pereira
Keyword(s):  
Global Climate ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Variability ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Natural Ecosystems ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Extreme Rainfall Events

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) affirms that in future climate scenarios, the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events may intensify as a result of changes in the global climate, causing negative impacts on the population and natural ecosystems. Therefore, the impacts caused by these events will require adaptations which, in turn, will be based on future projections carried out through simulations of various global and regional models. Thus, this scientific initiation project had the objective of studying the frequency and spatial variability of extreme rainfall events in the city of Campinas, through simulations carried out using the regional model ETA-HADGEM2-ES and surface meteorological data, considering present and future scenarios.

scholarly journals Climate change and wetland loss impacts on a Western river's water quality

2014 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 4925-4969
Author(s):  
R. M. Records ◽  
M. Arabi ◽  
S. R. Fassnacht ◽  
W. G. Duffy ◽  
M. Ahmadi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Quality ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Stream Water ◽  
Wetland Loss ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Wetland Water

Abstract. An understanding of potential stream water quality conditions under future climate is critical for the sustainability of ecosystems and protection of human health. Changes in wetland water balance under projected climate could alter wetland extent or cause wetland loss. This study assessed the potential climate-induced changes to in-stream sediment and nutrients loads in the historically snow melt-dominated Sprague River, Oregon, Western United States. Additionally, potential water quality impacts of combined changes in wetland water balance and wetland area under future climatic conditions were evaluated. The study utilized the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) forced with statistical downscaling of general circulation model (GCM) data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) using the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) method. Our findings suggest that in the Sprague River (1) mid-21st century nutrient and sediment loads could increase significantly during the high flow season under warmer-wetter climate projections, or could change only nominally in a warmer and somewhat drier future; (2) although water quality conditions under some future climate scenarios and no wetland loss may be similar to the past, the combined impact of climate change and wetland losses on nutrient loads could be large; (3) increases in stream total phosphorus (TP) concentration with wetland loss under future climate scenarios would be greatest at high-magnitude, low-probability flows; and (4) loss of riparian wetlands in both headwaters and lowlands could increase outlet TP loads to a similar degree, but this could be due to distinctly different mechanisms in different parts of the watershed.

scholarly journals Impact of global warming on the distribution of Anastrepha grandis (Diptera: Tephritidae) in Brazil

2020 ◽  
Vol 87 ◽  
Author(s):  
Heitor Lisbôa ◽  
Anderson Dionei Grutzmacher ◽  
Marcos Silveira Wrege ◽  
Flávio Roberto Mello Garcia ◽  
Dori Edson Nava
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Central America ◽  
Temperature Increase ◽  
Southeastern Brazil ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Climatic Variations ◽  
Pessimistic Scenario ◽  
The Impact

ABSTRACT: Anastrepha grandis is one of the main pests related to Cucurbitaceae in South and Central America. This study discusses the impact of temperature increase on the number of generations of A. grandis, whose distribution could be aggravated due to temperature increase. Climatic variations were analyzed for reference scenarios obtained from 1961‒1990 and of A2 and B1 climatic change scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, in which a less pessimistic scenario (B1) and a more pessimistic scenario (A2) were found. In relation to the reference scenarios, in colder seasons, the southern and southeastern regions are inadequate for the development of A. grandis, presenting one generation at most. In other regions of Brazil, where temperatures are higher throughout the year, the number of generations is at least two, and there is no variation from one climatic season to another. When analyzing the temperature increase, in a more pessimistic scenario (A2), there is a considerable variation in the number of generations, if we take into account three future climate scenarios in which A. grandis practically doubles the number of generations. In relation to a less pessimistic scenario (B1), there is a smaller variation in the number of generations, mainly in the southern region of the country. This variation is more accentuated in southeastern Brazil due to the temperature increase, in which the pest’s number of generations doubles even in colder seasons.

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