scholarly journals A Short-Term Forecast Scenario for COVID-19 Epidemic and Allocated Hospital Readiness in Egypt

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Engy El-Ghitany
Keyword(s):  
Exponential Growth ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Epidemic Curve ◽  
Preparedness Planning ◽  
The Status ◽  
Hospital Preparedness ◽  
Hospital Readiness

BackgroundThe novel virus COVID-19, also known as SARS-CoV‑2, is currently rapidly spreading around the globe and pushing healthcare systems to the limits of their capacity. One of the functions of predictive models is to timely act for epidemic preparedness including hospital preparedness. In Egypt, like many other countries in the world, the epidemic situation and forecasting have not yet sufficiently studied. ObjectiveThe study was carried out to develop a short-term forecast scenario for the COVID-19 epidemic situation in Egypt and predict the hospital needs to accommodate the growing number of cases.MethodsSecondary data from the COVID-2019 daily reports and the report issued 8th of April by the Egyptian Ministry of Health and Population were used. Due to the daily changing level of knowledge and data, the article reflects the status up to 18 April 2020. The prediction was based on the exponential growth rate model. For the depiction of the situation, the full length of the epidemic timeline was analyzed (from February 14th till April 18th). The growth rates and their rates of decline during the period from the 22nd of March till the 18th of April were calculated and extrapolated in the coming 7 weeks. The predicted hospital needs were assessed against the announced allocated resources.ResultsThe epidemic curve in Egypt is on the ascending arm as of April, 18. The active cases showed exponential growth from the start of the epidemic till April, 18. At the end of this period time, the recovery rate was 23.12% and the case fatality rate (CFR) was7.39. The case fatality rate median level during the last four weeks was 6.64. The active cases are expected to reach more than 20,000 by late May then starts to decline. The allocated regular hospital beds are predicted to show shortage by the time of the release of the paper. The intensive care units (ICU) beds and ventilators are predicted to show insufficiency on May 6.Conclusions: The COVID-19 epidemic in Egypt is expected to continue on the rise for the next few weeks and expected to start to decline late in May, 2020. Our estimates should be useful in preparedness planning. Serious actions should be taken to provide ICU beds and ventilators enough for the predicted number of cases that would need them, not later than the end of April. Mitigation actions have to continue for the coming 6 weeks or until the epidemic situation is more clearly seen.

A Short-Term Forecast Scenario for COVID-19 Epidemic and Allocated Hospital Readiness in Egypt (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Engy ElGhitany
Keyword(s):  
Exponential Growth ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Short Term Forecast ◽  
Epidemic Curve ◽  
Preparedness Planning ◽  
Term Forecast

BACKGROUND The novel virus COVID-19, also known as SARS-CoV 2, is currently rapidly spreading around the globe and pushing healthcare systems to the limits of their capacity. One of the functions of predictive models is to timely act for epidemic preparedness including hospital preparedness. In Egypt, like many other countries in the world, the epidemic situation and forecasting have not yet sufficiently studied. OBJECTIVE The study was carried out to develop a short-term forecast scenario for the COVID-19 epidemic situation in Egypt and predict the hospital needs to accommodate the growing number of cases. METHODS Secondary data from the COVID-2019 daily reports and the report issued 8th of April by the Egyptian Ministry of Health and Population were used. Due to the daily changing level of knowledge and data, the article reflects the status up to 18 April 2020. The prediction was based on the exponential growth rate model. For the depiction of the situation, the full length of the epidemic timeline was analyzed (from February 14th till April 18th). The growth rates and their rates of decline during the period from the 22nd of March till the 18th of April were calculated and extrapolated in the coming 7 weeks. The predicted hospital needs were assessed against the announced allocated resources. RESULTS The epidemic curve in Egypt is on the ascending arm as of April, 18. The active cases showed exponential growth from the start of the epidemic till April, 18. At the end of this period time, the recovery rate was 23.12% and the case fatality rate (CFR) was7.39. The case fatality rate median level during the last four weeks was 6.64. The active cases are expected to reach more than 20,000 by late May then starts to decline. The allocated regular hospital beds are predicted to show shortage by the time of the release of the paper. The intensive care units (ICU) beds and ventilators are predicted to show insufficiency on May 6. CONCLUSIONS The COVID-19 epidemic in Egypt is expected to continue on the rise for the next few weeks and expected to start to decline late in May, 2020. Our estimates should be useful in preparedness planning. Serious actions should be taken to provide ICU beds and ventilators enough for the predicted number of cases that would need them, not later than the end of April. Mitigation actions have to continue for the coming 6 weeks or until the epidemic situation is more clearly seen.

scholarly journals The UK Covid-19 lockdown weakened in April and May 2020: implications for the size of the epidemic and for outcomes had lockdown been earlier

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anthony D Lander
Keyword(s):  
Stochastic Model ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Daily Mortality ◽  
Mortality Curve ◽  
Epidemic Curve ◽  
Mobility Data ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Low Prevalence

The number of active cases in the UK Covid-19 epidemic, the case fatality rate, the susceptible proportion of the population, and how well the lockdown was maintained during April-May 2020 are unknown. These four have a relationship with the shape of the daily mortality curve once one considers the intervals from infection to death or recovery. Without an understanding of this relationship we cannot say that an earlier lockdown would have saved lives. Using a small stochastic model, the lockdown had to be weakened, in April and May, for simulated deaths to match ongoing actual daily deaths. Google mobility data was found to be consistent with the weakening required in the model with similar changes from baseline in time and magnitude. If in an earlier lockdown, mobility and interactions would have followed a similar course, then with a large epidemic curve an earlier lockdown might be associated with many more deaths than some currently believe. This was confirmed in the stochastic model and in two modified SIR models of epidemics of various sizes. The first SIR model had a fixed period to recovery and the second used random periods, both models had random periods to death. Weakening of the mitigations was required to tune the output in large but not in small epidemics. This gives weight to the epidemic having affected many more individuals than some reports currently suggest. In both one and two-week earlier lockdowns, total deaths were found to depend on the size of the epidemic and to vary from 2,000-49,000 deaths. There was a linear relationship between the peak proportion of the population infected and the reciprocal of the case fatality rate. This work questions the low prevalence of < 0.1%, reported by the Office for National Statistics in May and June 2020, since to accommodate a weakening lockdown, the shape of the daily mortality curve, and an acceptable case fatality rate a much larger epidemic curve is required.

scholarly journals COVID-19 pandemic in India: A Comparison of pandemic pattern in Selected States

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 856-864
Author(s):  
Rama Shankar Rath ◽  
Anand Mohan Dixit ◽  
Anil Ramesh Koparkar ◽  
Pradip Kharya ◽  
Hari Shanker Joshi
Keyword(s):  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Descriptive Analysis ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Family Welfare ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Strong Law ◽  
Preparedness Plan ◽  
Epidemic Curve ◽  
First Case

The COVID-19 pandemic currently expanded its roots to the 206 countries in the world. The morbidity and mortality are not only threat to humans but also its impact on economy is indirectly affecting us. The current review was done to find trend in various states of India. Data was collected from Ministry of Health and Family Welfare and descriptive analysis of the distribution of COVID-19 cases in different states of India. First case of COVID-19 was diagnosed in southern most state Kerala and after that it has spread to all other states but situations are more worsen in states with high international migration. Maharashtra is now the most affected state followed by Delhi. Among epidemic curve of all these states, Maharashtra has rapidly growing epidemic curve with highest slope, whereas Kerala has the lowest. When we compared the day wise cumulative case fatality rate, it was found that the case fatality rate of the states like Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh & Rajasthan showed decrease in the case fatality rate over the period. Population density is also one of the key determinants of social interaction and thus the spread of disease specifically in communicable diseases. Government of India had taken many strong initiatives e.g. 40 days nation-wide lockdown, thermal screening at airport, announcement of relief packages for poor and quarantine of outsiders but still there are many missed opportunities like, early stoppage of international traffic, compulsory quarantine for all international travellers, better contact tracing, strong law and order and better preparedness plan.

scholarly journals Is case fatality rate an appropriate index to represent the status of case-finding process for COVID-19 in different countries?

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 1773733
Author(s):  
Moslem Taheri Soodejani ◽  
Mohammad Hassan Lotfi ◽  
Seyyed Mohammad Tabatabaei
Keyword(s):  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Case Finding ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
The Status

scholarly journals A META-ANALYSIS OF SHORT-TERM CASE-FATALITY RATE AMONG WHITE AND BLACK WOMEN WITH ACUTE CORONARY SYNDROMES

2020 ◽  
Vol 75 (11) ◽  
pp. 136
Author(s):  
Sabin Filimon ◽  
Hanh Nguyen ◽  
Robert Joel Goldberg ◽  
Lars Wallentin ◽  
Jiayi Ni ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Black Women ◽  
Acute Coronary Syndromes ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Coronary Syndromes

Impact of hydroxychloroquin/azithromycin protocol on COVID-19 case-fatality rate reduction in Algeria. (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ahmed Youssef Kada
Keyword(s):  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Doubling Time ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
World Health ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Therapeutic Protocol ◽  
First Case ◽  
The World ◽  
The Impact ◽  
At Home

BACKGROUND Covid-19 is an emerging infectious disease like viral zoonosis caused by new coronavirus SARS CoV 2. On December 31, 2019, Wuhan Municipal Health Commission in Hubei province (China) reported cases of pneumonia, the origin of which is a new coronavirus. Rapidly extendable around the world, the World Health Organization (WHO) declares it pandemic on March 11, 2020. This pandemic reaches Algeria on February 25, 2020, date on which the Algerian minister of health, announced the first case of Covid-19, a foreign citizen. From March 1, a cluster is formed in Blida and becomes the epicentre of the coronavirus epidemic in Algeria, its total quarantine is established on March 24, 2020, it will be smoothly alleviated on April 24. A therapeutic protocol based on hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin was put in place on March 23, for complicated cases, it was extended to all the cases confirmed on April 06. OBJECTIVE This study aimed to demonstrate the effectiveness of hydroxychloroquin/azithromycin protocol in Algeria, in particular after its extension to all patients diagnosed COVID-19 positive on RT-PCR test. We were able to illustrate this fact graphically, but not to prove it statistically because the design of our study, indeed in the 7 days which followed generalization of therapeutic protocol, case fatality rate decrease and doubling time increase, thus confirming the impact of wide and early prescription of hydroxychloroquin/azithromycin protocol. METHODS We have analyzed the data collected from press releases and follow-ups published daily by the Ministry of Health, we have studied the possible correlations of these data with certain events or decisions having a possible impact on their development, such as confinement at home and its reduction, the prescription of hydroxychloroquine/azithromycin combination for serious patients and its extension to all positive COVID subjects. Results are presented in graphics, the data collection was closed on 31/05/2020. RESULTS Covid-19 pandemic spreads from February 25, 2020, when a foreign citizen is tested positive, on March 1 a cluster is formed in the city of Blida where sixteen members of the same family are infected during a wedding party. Wilaya of Blida becomes the epicentre of coronavirus epidemic in Algeria and lockdown measures taken, while the number of national cases diagnosed begins to increases In any event, the association of early containment measures combined with a generalized initial treatment for all positive cases, whatever their degree of severity, will have contributed to a reduction in the fatality rate of COVID 19 and a slowing down of its doubling time. CONCLUSIONS In Algeria, the rapid combination of rigorous containment measure at home and early generalized treatment with hydroxychloroquin have demonstrated their effectiveness in terms of morbidity and mortality, the classic measures of social distancing and hygiene will make it possible to perpetuate these results by reducing viral transmission, the only unknown, the reopening procedure which can only be started after being surrounded by precautions aimed at ensuring the understanding of the population. CLINICALTRIAL Algeria, Covid-19, pandemic, hydroxychloroquin, azithromycin, case fatality rate

scholarly journals Author Correction: Calcium channel blocker amlodipine besylate therapy is associated with reduced case fatality rate of COVID-19 patients with hypertension

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lei-Ke Zhang ◽  
Yuan Sun ◽  
Haolong Zeng ◽  
Qingxing Wang ◽  
Xiaming Jiang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Calcium Channel ◽  
Calcium Channel Blocker ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Channel Blocker ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Amlodipine Besylate

A Correction to this paper has been published: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41421-021-00267-0

scholarly journals Early determination of case fatality rate of COVID-19 pandemic during the ongoing Yemeni armed conflict

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-15
Author(s):  
Abdulla Salem Bin Ghouth ◽  
Ali Ahmed Al-Waleedi ◽  
Marhami Fahriani ◽  
Firzan Nainu ◽  
Harapan Harapan
Keyword(s):  
Young Adults ◽  
Intensive Care ◽  
Armed Conflict ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Preventive Measures ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Mechanical Ventilators ◽  
Poor Outcomes

Abstract Objectives: To determine the case-fatality rate (CFR) of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and its associated determinants in order to understand the true magnitude of the problem during ongoing conflict in Yemen. Methods: The CFR among confirmed COVID-19 cases in Yemen was calculated. The data was retrieved from national COVID-19 surveillance between April 10, when the first COVID-19 case reported, and May 31, 2020. Results: A total of 419 confirmed COVID-19 cases were reported. There were 14.1% and 5.7% of cases who required intensive care and mechanical ventilators, respectively. Out of total cases, 95 deaths were reported, giving CFR of 22.6% which is much higher compared to other countries. CFR was significantly higher among elderly compared to young adults and varied between governorates. Mortality was associated with preexisting hypertension (OR: 2.30; 95%CI: 1.58, 3.54) and diabetes (OR: 1.68; 95%CI: 1.08, 2.61). Conclusions: Elderly and those with comorbidities, in particular hypertension and diabetes, have higher risk for poor outcomes and therefore should receive more attention in the clinical setting. Preventive measures should also be prioritized to protect those groups in order to reduce the severe cases and deaths-associated COVID-19 in armed-conflict.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document