Preliminary Estimate of COVID-19 Case Fatality Rate in the Philippines using Linear Regression Analysis

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Arieh Medina
Keyword(s):  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Linear Regression ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Preliminary Estimate

scholarly journals COVID19 - A Correlation Study of Infection Fatality Rate vs Age

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
JAYDIP DATTA
Keyword(s):  
Critical Care ◽  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Logistic Model ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Correlation Study ◽  
Asymptomatic Infection ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Special Case

Abstract In this article one of the most important epidemiological parameter ie Infection fatality rate [ 1 ] is correlated with age of the population through a sigmoid statistics of Logistic model. The IFR is a special case of case fatality rate ( CFR ) . The CFR ( 1 ) is termed as the number of deaths due to symptomatic Covid infection within entire population per unit time . The IFR is a special case of CFR where number of deaths to be considered as total number of deaths due to symptomatic as well as asymptomatic infection within the same population per unit time .The sigmoid fit can also be approximated to modified quadratic fit [ 4-5 ]. CFR can be more specifically correlated to comorbidities [8 ]through linear regression analysis. co morbidities due to SARS-COV-2 infection for different chronic diseases like heart , Lung , Kidney , related chronic failure are analysed by a significant Pearson statistics ( 10 ) are discussed here . The IFR can be realised from mild to hospitalisation under ICU , critical care and finally severity to death( 9,12).

scholarly journals An Assessment of the Philippine Hospital Resources as Predictors of the Case Fatality Rate of COVID – 19

2022 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 118-130
Author(s):  
Paul Benjamin Barrion ◽  
Ray Patrick Basco ◽  
Kevin jamir Pigao
Keyword(s):  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Health Resources ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Medical Attention ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Mechanical Ventilators ◽  
Department Of Health ◽  
Hospital Resources

In the heightened effects of the pandemic, health resources have been in constant limbo as supplies and availability of hospital resources take a toll as COVID-19 cases surge, resulting in shortages. Thus, health systems are overwhelmed, resulting in a higher fatality rate since the capacity to provide medical attention is diminished. In this paper, hospital resources refer to mechanical ventilators, ICU, isolation, and ward beds which are the critical factors of the case fatality rate (CFR) of COVID-19 in the Philippines. Data were retrieved from the Department of Health (DOH) Case Bulletins from October 26, 2020, to June 30, 2021, with 248 total observations. This research used the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) Multiple Regression to determine if hospital resources are the predictors of the case fatality rate of COVID-19. Furthermore, the results show a significant relationship between the hospital resources and the case fatality rate of COVID-19 in the Philippines. This study can become a framework for further research concerned about hospital resources as the predictors of case fatality rates of different diseases in a pandemic.  

scholarly journals Epidemiological characteristics of an outbreak of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in the Philippines

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark M. Alipio ◽  
Joseph Dave M. Pregoner
Keyword(s):  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Mainland China ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Metro Manila ◽  
Infectivity Rate ◽  
Precautionary Measures ◽  
Infection Control Guidelines ◽  
Epidemiological Characteristics

AbstractThe outbreak of Coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-2019) is a source of great concern in the Philippines. In this paper, we described the epidemiological characteristics of the laboratory-confirmed patients with Covid-2019 in the Philippines as of April 3, 2020 and provided recommendations on how to limit the spread of the disease. Data from the DOH NCOV tracker and University of the Philippines’ Covid-2019 tracker were extracted, from its initiation (January 30, 2020) until the most recent situation report (April 3, 2020). The total number of cases and deaths were stratified by sex, age, and region of the Philippines. Descriptive statistics were used to analyze the demographic profile of the confirmed cases. Case fatality rate, in percent, was calculated by dividing the total number of deaths to the total number of confirmed cases. Results revealed that a total of 3,018 cases of Covid-2019 spread were confirmed across 17 regions in the Philippines. These cases occurred over the course of 73 days through person-to-person transmission, highlighting an extremely high infectivity rate. The 144 deaths accounted for, equate to 4.51 case fatality rate, seemingly lower compared to its predecessors, severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), but higher compared to that of United States of America, Germany, mainland China, and neighboring Southeast Asian countries such as Malaysia, Singapore, Brunei, and Thailand. Of the 3,018 confirmed cases, majority were male, elderly, and diagnosed in Metro Manila region. Case fatality rates were higher in male and highest among elderly and Filipinos in the Ilocos region. With the surge on the number of cases, precautionary measures should remain a responsibility, and protocols for prevention need to be set. Adherence to infection control guidelines such as but not limited to frequently handwashing for at least 20 seconds, observing coughing etiquette, wearing of masks, and social distancing should be maintained in order to contain the disease.

scholarly journals Assessment of Epidemiological Determinants of COVID-19 Pandemic Related to Social and Economic Factors Globally

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (9) ◽  
pp. 194
Author(s):  
Mohammad Mahmudul Hassan ◽  
Md. Abul Kalam ◽  
Shahanaj Shano ◽  
Md. Raihan Khan Nayem ◽  
Md. Kaisar Rahman ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Population Density ◽  
Recovery Rate ◽  
Attack Rate ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
The Impact

The COVID-19 pandemic has manifested more than a health crisis and has severely impacted on social, economic, and development crises in the world. The relationship of COVID-19 with countries’ economic and other demographic statuses is an important criterion with which to assess the impact of this current outbreak. Based on available data from the online platform, we tested the hypotheses of a country’s economic status, population density, the median age of the population, and urbanization pattern influence on the test, attack, case fatality, and recovery rates of COVID-19. We performed correlation and multivariate multinomial regression analysis with relative risk ratio (RRR) to test the hypotheses. The correlation analysis showed that population density and test rate had a significantly negative association (r = −0.2384, p = 0.00). In contrast, the median age had a significant positive correlation with recovery rate (r = 0.4654, p = 0.00) and case fatality rate (r = 0.2847, p = 0.00). The urban population rate had a positive significant correlation with recovery rate (r = 0.1610, p = 0.04). Lower-middle-income countries had a negative significant correlation with case fatality rate (r= −0.3310, p = 0.04). The multivariate multinomial logistic regression analysis revealed that low-income countries are more likely to have an increased risk of case fatality rate (RRR = 0.986, 95% Confidence Interval; CI = 0.97−1.00, p < 0.05) and recovery rate (RRR = 0.967, 95% CI = 0.95–0.98, p = 0.00). The lower-income countries are more likely to have a higher risk in case of attack rate (RRR = 0.981, 95% CI = 0.97–0.99, p = 0.00) and recovery rate (RRR = 0.971, 95% CI = 0.96–0.98, p = 0.00). Similarly, upper middle-income countries are more likely to have higher risk in case of attack rate (RRR = 0.988, 95% CI = 0.98–1.0, p = 0.01) and recovery rate (RRR = 0.978, 95% CI = 0.97–0.99, p = 0.00). The low- and lower-middle-income countries should invest more in health care services and implement adequate COVID-19 preventive measures to reduce the risk burden. We recommend a participatory, whole-of-government and whole-of-society approach for responding to the socio-economic challenges of COVID-19 and ensuring more resilient and robust health systems to safeguard against preventable deaths and poverty by improving public health outcomes.

scholarly journals Risk factors affecting COVID-19 case fatality rate: A quantitative analysis of top 50 affected countries

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Poh Hui Goh ◽  
Wafiah Ilyani Mahari ◽  
Norhadyrah Izazie Ahad ◽  
Li Ling Chaw ◽  
Nurolaini Kifli ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Smoking Prevalence ◽  
Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Significant Risk ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Data Availability ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
The Relationship

Background: Latest clinical data on treatment on coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) indicated that older patients and those with underlying history of smoking, hypertension or diabetes mellitus might have poorer prognosis of recovery from COVID-19. We aimed to examine the relationship of various prevailing population-based risk factors in comparison with mortality rate and case fatality rate (CFR) of COVID-19.Methods: Demography and epidemiology data were used, which have been identified as verified or postulated risk factors for mortality of adult inpatients with COVID-19. The number of confirmed cases and the number of deaths until April 16, 2020 for all affected countries were extracted from Johns Hopkins University COVID-19 websites. Datasets for indicators that are prevailing or postulated factors of COVID-19 mortality were extracted from the World Bank database. Out of 185 affected countries, the top 50 countries were selected for analysis in this study. The following seven variables were included in the analysis, based on data availability and completeness: 1) proportion of people aged 65 above, 2) proportion of male in the population, 3) smoking prevalence, and 4) number of hospital beds. Linear regression analysis was carried out to determine the relationship between CFR and the aforementioned risk factors.Results: United States shows approximately 0.20% of confirmed cases and it has about 4.85% of CFR. Luxembourg shows the highest percentage of confirmed cases of 0.55% but a low 2.05% of CFR, showing that a high percentage of confirmed cases does not necessarily lead to high CFR. There is a significant association between CFR, people aged 65 and above (β=4.70; p = 0.035).Conclusion: Countries with high proportion of older people above 65 years old have a significant risk of having high CFR from COVID-19. Nevertheless, gender differences and smoking prevalence failed to prove a significant relationship with COVID-19 mortality rate and CFR.

scholarly journals Aetiology and risks factors associated with the fatal outcomes of childhood pneumonia among hospitalised children in the Philippines from 2008 to 2016: a case series study

BMJ Open ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. e026895 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bindongo Price Polycarpe Dembele ◽  
Taro Kamigaki ◽  
Clyde Dapat ◽  
Raita Tamaki ◽  
Mariko Saito ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Case Series ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Research Centre ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Factors Associated ◽  
Case Series Study ◽  
Series Study

ObjectivePneumonia remains the leading cause of hospitalisations and deaths among children aged <5 years. Diverse respiratory pathogens cause acute respiratory infections, including pneumonia. Here, we analysed viral and bacterial pathogens and risk factors associated with death of hospitalised children.DesignA 9-year case series study.SettingTwo secondary-care hospitals, one tertiary-care hospital and one research centre in the Philippines.Participants5054 children aged <5 years hospitalised with severe pneumonia.MethodsNasopharyngeal swabs for virus identification, and venous blood samples for bacterial culture were collected. Demographic, clinical data and laboratory findings were collected at admission time. Logistic regression analyses were performed to identify the factors associated with death.ResultsOf the enrolled patients, 57% (2876/5054) were males. The case fatality rate was 4.7% (238/5054), showing a decreasing trend during the study period (p<0.001). 55.0% of the patients who died were either moderately or severely underweight. Viruses were detected in 61.0% of the patients, with respiratory syncytial virus (27.0%) and rhinovirus (23.0%) being the most commonly detected viruses. In children aged 2–59 months, the risk factors significantly associated with death included age of 2–5 months, sensorial changes, severe malnutrition, grunting, central cyanosis, decreased breath sounds, tachypnoea, fever (≥38.5°C), saturation of peripheral oxygen <90%, infiltration, consolidation and pleural effusion on chest radiograph.Among the pathogens, adenovirus type 7, seasonal influenza A (H1N1) and positive blood culture for bacteria were significantly associated with death. Similar patterns were observed between the death cases and the aforementioned factors in children aged <2 months.ConclusionMalnutrition was the most common factor associated with death and addressing this issue may decrease the case fatality rate. In addition, chest radiographic examination and oxygen saturation measurement should be promoted in all hospitalised patients with pneumonia as well as bacteria detection to identify patients who are at risk of death.

scholarly journals Estimating global case fatality rate of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Manisha Mandal ◽  
Shyamapada Mandal
Keyword(s):  
Linear Regression ◽  
Regression Model ◽  
Linear Regression Model ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Model Analysis ◽  
World Health ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Statistical Regression ◽  
The World

Abstract There is a huge loss of lives worldwide in relation to COVID-19 pandemic, the primary epicentre of which is China, where the causative agent of the disease called SARS-CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2) was first emerged in December 2019. In view of this the severity, in terms of case fatality rate (CFR), is essential to explore for COVID-19. Data of ongoing COVID-19 global pandemic have been retrieved from publicly accessible website of the WHO (World Health Organization), and were processed for the estimation of global (both including and excluding China) CFRs of COVID-19. The CFRs were explored following the naive estimates, 14-day delay estimates, and linear regression model analysis, for the period between January 25, 2020 and April 25, 2020, on weekly basis. To explore the current situation, in terms of global CFR, data for the next 6 weeks (May 2, 2020 through June 6, 2020), were processed by naive and linear regression model analysis. Mean CFRs, in the naive estimates, were 4.59% (95% CI: 3.59 – 5.59) for the world including China, and 3.62% (95% CI: 2.01 – 5.23) for the world excluding China. The 14-day delay estimates of CFRs were 15.6% (95% CI: 7.18 – 24.02) globally, and 21.65% (95% CI: 11.15 – 32.15) in countries outside China. Following statistical model analysis, the global (both including and excluding China) CFRs were 6.81%, by naive estimates, and ~13%, by 14-day delay estimates. The global CFR of COVID-19 during May 2, 2020 to June 6, 2020, ranged 5.9 – 7.04% (mean: 6.58%; 95% CI: 6.11 – 7.03), by naive estimates, and by statistical regression analysis the CFR was 4.78%. The CFR as explored in the current study might help estimate the need of up-to-date hospital supplies and other mitigation measures for COVID-19 ongoing pandemic.

scholarly journals Oxygen and mortality in COVID-19 pneumonia: a comparative analysis of supplemental oxygen policies and health outcomes across 26 countries

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel K Goyal ◽  
Harry Donnelly ◽  
Albrecht Kussner ◽  
James Neil ◽  
Sohail Bhatti ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Linear Regression ◽  
Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Inverse Correlation ◽  
Supplemental Oxygen ◽  
List Type ◽  
Low Oxygen ◽  
New Findings ◽  
The Uk

ABSTRACTIntroductionHypoxia is the main cause of morbidity and mortality in COVID-19. During the COVID-19 pandemic some countries have reduced access to supplemental oxygen (e.g. oxygen rationing), whereas other nations have maintained and even improved access to supplemental oxygen. We examined whether such variation in the access to supplemental oxygen had any bearing on mortality in COVID-19.MethodsThree independent investigators searched for, identified and extracted the nationally recommended target oxygen levels for the commencement of oxygen in COVID-19 pneumonia from the 29 worst affected countries. Mortality estimates were calculated from three independent sources. We then applied linear regression analysis to examine for potential association between national targets for the commencement of oxygen and case fatality rates.ResultsOf the 26 nations included, 15 had employed conservative oxygen strategies to manage COVID-19 pneumonia. Of them, Belgium, France, USA, Canada, China, Germany, Mexico, Spain, Sweden and the UK guidelines advised commencing oxygen when oxygen saturations (SpO2) fell to 91% or less. Target SpO2 ranged from 92% to 95% in the other 16 nations. Linear regression analysis demonstrated a strong inverse correlation between the national target for the commencement of oxygen and national case fatality rates (Spearman’s Rho = −0.622, p < 0.001).ConclusionOur study highlights the disparity in oxygen provision for COVID-19 patients between the nations analysed, and indicates such disparity in access to supplemental oxygen may represent a modifiable factor associated with mortality during the pandemic.Key MessagesWhat is already known?There were no prospective clinical trials we could identify relating to COVID-19 and supplemental oxygen, nor any published studies examining access to supplemental oxygen and mortality in COVID-19.There are a number of studies identifying an association with low oxygen saturations at presentation and mortality in COVID-19 pneumonia.There is good quality evidence that a delay in the correction of hypoxia in pneumonia increases mortality.What are the new findings?This study highlights the different thresholds for commencing supplemental oxygen in patients with COVID-19 across 26 nations.Those countries that provide better access to supplemental oxygen have a statistically significant lower mortality rate.Our results support the consensus view that improving access to supplemental oxygen in COVID-19 pneumonia is likely to reduce mortality.

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