Short-Term Case Fatality Rate and Associated Factors among Inpatients with Diabetic Ketoacidosis and Hyperglycemic Hyperosmolar State: A Hospital-Based Analysis over a 15-Year Period

Abstract Background: Since December 2019, COVID-19 has been confirmed in more than18.8 million patients and leads to 0.70 million deaths worldwide. The mortality and disease severity predictors of COVID-19 have been investigated in many studies. However, they are based on early or partial datasets from high epidemic areas. Here, we retrospect benign clinical and epidemiological outcomes-associated factors from a solved epidemic in a low epidemic area. Methods: All 98 laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 patients in a local epidemic (Zhuhai, China) from January 17, 2020 to March 10, 2020 were enrolled. Data were updated until all patients having final outcomes. Results: Patients were all hospitalized. The case fatality rate was 1.0%. There were no local secondary infection cases. The median age was 46.3 years. Underlying diseases were found in 33.7% patients. The severe/critical rate was 19.4%. The mean period from disease onset to admission was 4.4 days. Compared with serious/critical cases, mild/common cases on admission were much younger, lacks of comorbidities and normal in functions of vital organs and indicators of secondary bacterial infections. The lymphocyte counts in serious/critical cases began to be significantly lower 3 days before their identification dates. The absence of lymphopenia before the eighth day from disease onset can exclude the possibility of 78.5% to be serious/critical ill. Most patients (88.8%) received antiviral treatments. Early antiviral treatment significantly shortened the viral RNA-negative conversion time. The delayed antiviral treatment was associated with critical patients.Conclusions: Younger age, lack of aging-related diseases and early hospitalization of all patients to conduct antiviral treatment and prevention of secondary epidemic were the important benign clinical and epidemiological outcomes-associated factors of COVID-19. In combating COVID-19, the active intervention strategies are crucial in low epidemic areas and the continuous monitoring of lymphocytes may be useful to sort patients reasonably in high epidemic areas.

Download Full-text

A Short-Term Forecast Scenario for COVID-19 Epidemic and Allocated Hospital Readiness in Egypt

10.20944/preprints202004.0473.v1 ◽

2020 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Engy El-Ghitany

Keyword(s):

Exponential Growth ◽

Case Fatality Rate ◽

Case Fatality ◽

Fatality Rate ◽

Short Term ◽

Epidemic Curve ◽

Preparedness Planning ◽

The Status ◽

Hospital Preparedness ◽

Hospital Readiness

BackgroundThe novel virus COVID-19, also known as SARS-CoV‑2, is currently rapidly spreading around the globe and pushing healthcare systems to the limits of their capacity. One of the functions of predictive models is to timely act for epidemic preparedness including hospital preparedness. In Egypt, like many other countries in the world, the epidemic situation and forecasting have not yet sufficiently studied. ObjectiveThe study was carried out to develop a short-term forecast scenario for the COVID-19 epidemic situation in Egypt and predict the hospital needs to accommodate the growing number of cases.MethodsSecondary data from the COVID-2019 daily reports and the report issued 8th of April by the Egyptian Ministry of Health and Population were used. Due to the daily changing level of knowledge and data, the article reflects the status up to 18 April 2020. The prediction was based on the exponential growth rate model. For the depiction of the situation, the full length of the epidemic timeline was analyzed (from February 14th till April 18th). The growth rates and their rates of decline during the period from the 22nd of March till the 18th of April were calculated and extrapolated in the coming 7 weeks. The predicted hospital needs were assessed against the announced allocated resources.ResultsThe epidemic curve in Egypt is on the ascending arm as of April, 18. The active cases showed exponential growth from the start of the epidemic till April, 18. At the end of this period time, the recovery rate was 23.12% and the case fatality rate (CFR) was7.39. The case fatality rate median level during the last four weeks was 6.64. The active cases are expected to reach more than 20,000 by late May then starts to decline. The allocated regular hospital beds are predicted to show shortage by the time of the release of the paper. The intensive care units (ICU) beds and ventilators are predicted to show insufficiency on May 6.Conclusions: The COVID-19 epidemic in Egypt is expected to continue on the rise for the next few weeks and expected to start to decline late in May, 2020. Our estimates should be useful in preparedness planning. Serious actions should be taken to provide ICU beds and ventilators enough for the predicted number of cases that would need them, not later than the end of April. Mitigation actions have to continue for the coming 6 weeks or until the epidemic situation is more clearly seen.

Download Full-text

A META-ANALYSIS OF SHORT-TERM CASE-FATALITY RATE AMONG WHITE AND BLACK WOMEN WITH ACUTE CORONARY SYNDROMES

Journal of the American College of Cardiology ◽

10.1016/s0735-1097(20)30763-4 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 75 (11) ◽

pp. 136

Author(s):

Sabin Filimon ◽

Hanh Nguyen ◽

Robert Joel Goldberg ◽

Lars Wallentin ◽

Jiayi Ni ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Black Women ◽

Acute Coronary Syndromes ◽

Case Fatality Rate ◽

Meta Analysis ◽

Case Fatality ◽

Fatality Rate ◽

Short Term ◽

Coronary Syndromes

Download Full-text

A Short-Term Forecast Scenario for COVID-19 Epidemic and Allocated Hospital Readiness in Egypt (Preprint)

10.2196/preprints.19616 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Engy ElGhitany

Keyword(s):

Exponential Growth ◽

Case Fatality Rate ◽

Case Fatality ◽

Secondary Data ◽

Fatality Rate ◽

Short Term ◽

Short Term Forecast ◽

Epidemic Curve ◽

Preparedness Planning ◽

Term Forecast

BACKGROUND The novel virus COVID-19, also known as SARS-CoV 2, is currently rapidly spreading around the globe and pushing healthcare systems to the limits of their capacity. One of the functions of predictive models is to timely act for epidemic preparedness including hospital preparedness. In Egypt, like many other countries in the world, the epidemic situation and forecasting have not yet sufficiently studied. OBJECTIVE The study was carried out to develop a short-term forecast scenario for the COVID-19 epidemic situation in Egypt and predict the hospital needs to accommodate the growing number of cases. METHODS Secondary data from the COVID-2019 daily reports and the report issued 8th of April by the Egyptian Ministry of Health and Population were used. Due to the daily changing level of knowledge and data, the article reflects the status up to 18 April 2020. The prediction was based on the exponential growth rate model. For the depiction of the situation, the full length of the epidemic timeline was analyzed (from February 14th till April 18th). The growth rates and their rates of decline during the period from the 22nd of March till the 18th of April were calculated and extrapolated in the coming 7 weeks. The predicted hospital needs were assessed against the announced allocated resources. RESULTS The epidemic curve in Egypt is on the ascending arm as of April, 18. The active cases showed exponential growth from the start of the epidemic till April, 18. At the end of this period time, the recovery rate was 23.12% and the case fatality rate (CFR) was7.39. The case fatality rate median level during the last four weeks was 6.64. The active cases are expected to reach more than 20,000 by late May then starts to decline. The allocated regular hospital beds are predicted to show shortage by the time of the release of the paper. The intensive care units (ICU) beds and ventilators are predicted to show insufficiency on May 6. CONCLUSIONS The COVID-19 epidemic in Egypt is expected to continue on the rise for the next few weeks and expected to start to decline late in May, 2020. Our estimates should be useful in preparedness planning. Serious actions should be taken to provide ICU beds and ventilators enough for the predicted number of cases that would need them, not later than the end of April. Mitigation actions have to continue for the coming 6 weeks or until the epidemic situation is more clearly seen.

Download Full-text

Benign clinical and epidemiological outcomes-associated factors of COVID-19 from a solved epidemic with a low case fatality rate

Clinical Research and Trials ◽

10.15761/crt.1000334 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 7 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Gang Hu ◽

Jian Liu ◽

Peng Yuan He ◽

Li Juan Ouyang ◽

Bao Jia Zou ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Associated Factors ◽

Case Fatality Rate ◽

Case Fatality ◽

Fatality Rate

Download Full-text

Case fatality rate and associated factors in patients with 22q11 microdeletion syndrome: a retrospective cohort study

BMJ Open ◽

10.1136/bmjopen-2014-005041 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 4 (11) ◽

pp. e005041 ◽

Cited By ~ 19

Author(s):

Gabriela M Repetto ◽

M Luisa Guzmán ◽

Iris Delgado ◽

Hugo Loyola ◽

Mirta Palomares ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Cohort Study ◽

Retrospective Cohort Study ◽

Retrospective Cohort ◽

Associated Factors ◽

Case Fatality Rate ◽

Case Fatality ◽

Fatality Rate ◽

Microdeletion Syndrome

Download Full-text

Preliminary Estimate of COVID-19 Case Fatality Rate in the Philippines using Linear Regression Analysis

SSRN Electronic Journal ◽

10.2139/ssrn.3569248 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Michael Arieh Medina

Keyword(s):

Regression Analysis ◽

Linear Regression ◽

Case Fatality Rate ◽

Linear Regression Analysis ◽

Case Fatality ◽

The Philippines ◽

Fatality Rate ◽

Preliminary Estimate

Download Full-text

Impact of hydroxychloroquin/azithromycin protocol on COVID-19 case-fatality rate reduction in Algeria. (Preprint)

10.2196/preprints.20886 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Ahmed Youssef Kada

Keyword(s):

Case Fatality Rate ◽

Doubling Time ◽

Case Fatality ◽

World Health ◽

Fatality Rate ◽

Therapeutic Protocol ◽

First Case ◽

The World ◽

The Impact ◽

At Home

BACKGROUND Covid-19 is an emerging infectious disease like viral zoonosis caused by new coronavirus SARS CoV 2. On December 31, 2019, Wuhan Municipal Health Commission in Hubei province (China) reported cases of pneumonia, the origin of which is a new coronavirus. Rapidly extendable around the world, the World Health Organization (WHO) declares it pandemic on March 11, 2020. This pandemic reaches Algeria on February 25, 2020, date on which the Algerian minister of health, announced the first case of Covid-19, a foreign citizen. From March 1, a cluster is formed in Blida and becomes the epicentre of the coronavirus epidemic in Algeria, its total quarantine is established on March 24, 2020, it will be smoothly alleviated on April 24. A therapeutic protocol based on hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin was put in place on March 23, for complicated cases, it was extended to all the cases confirmed on April 06. OBJECTIVE This study aimed to demonstrate the effectiveness of hydroxychloroquin/azithromycin protocol in Algeria, in particular after its extension to all patients diagnosed COVID-19 positive on RT-PCR test. We were able to illustrate this fact graphically, but not to prove it statistically because the design of our study, indeed in the 7 days which followed generalization of therapeutic protocol, case fatality rate decrease and doubling time increase, thus confirming the impact of wide and early prescription of hydroxychloroquin/azithromycin protocol. METHODS We have analyzed the data collected from press releases and follow-ups published daily by the Ministry of Health, we have studied the possible correlations of these data with certain events or decisions having a possible impact on their development, such as confinement at home and its reduction, the prescription of hydroxychloroquine/azithromycin combination for serious patients and its extension to all positive COVID subjects. Results are presented in graphics, the data collection was closed on 31/05/2020. RESULTS Covid-19 pandemic spreads from February 25, 2020, when a foreign citizen is tested positive, on March 1 a cluster is formed in the city of Blida where sixteen members of the same family are infected during a wedding party. Wilaya of Blida becomes the epicentre of coronavirus epidemic in Algeria and lockdown measures taken, while the number of national cases diagnosed begins to increases In any event, the association of early containment measures combined with a generalized initial treatment for all positive cases, whatever their degree of severity, will have contributed to a reduction in the fatality rate of COVID 19 and a slowing down of its doubling time. CONCLUSIONS In Algeria, the rapid combination of rigorous containment measure at home and early generalized treatment with hydroxychloroquin have demonstrated their effectiveness in terms of morbidity and mortality, the classic measures of social distancing and hygiene will make it possible to perpetuate these results by reducing viral transmission, the only unknown, the reopening procedure which can only be started after being surrounded by precautions aimed at ensuring the understanding of the population. CLINICALTRIAL Algeria, Covid-19, pandemic, hydroxychloroquin, azithromycin, case fatality rate

Download Full-text

Author Correction: Calcium channel blocker amlodipine besylate therapy is associated with reduced case fatality rate of COVID-19 patients with hypertension

Cell Discovery ◽

10.1038/s41421-021-00267-0 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 7 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Lei-Ke Zhang ◽

Yuan Sun ◽

Haolong Zeng ◽

Qingxing Wang ◽

Xiaming Jiang ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Calcium Channel ◽

Calcium Channel Blocker ◽

Case Fatality Rate ◽

Channel Blocker ◽

Case Fatality ◽

Fatality Rate ◽

Amlodipine Besylate

A Correction to this paper has been published: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41421-021-00267-0

Download Full-text

Early determination of case fatality rate of COVID-19 pandemic during the ongoing Yemeni armed conflict

Disaster Medicine and Public Health Preparedness ◽

10.1017/dmp.2021.250 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 1-15

Author(s):

Abdulla Salem Bin Ghouth ◽

Ali Ahmed Al-Waleedi ◽

Marhami Fahriani ◽

Firzan Nainu ◽

Harapan Harapan

Keyword(s):

Young Adults ◽

Intensive Care ◽

Armed Conflict ◽

Case Fatality Rate ◽

Preventive Measures ◽

Case Fatality ◽

Fatality Rate ◽

Mechanical Ventilators ◽

Poor Outcomes

Abstract Objectives: To determine the case-fatality rate (CFR) of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and its associated determinants in order to understand the true magnitude of the problem during ongoing conflict in Yemen. Methods: The CFR among confirmed COVID-19 cases in Yemen was calculated. The data was retrieved from national COVID-19 surveillance between April 10, when the first COVID-19 case reported, and May 31, 2020. Results: A total of 419 confirmed COVID-19 cases were reported. There were 14.1% and 5.7% of cases who required intensive care and mechanical ventilators, respectively. Out of total cases, 95 deaths were reported, giving CFR of 22.6% which is much higher compared to other countries. CFR was significantly higher among elderly compared to young adults and varied between governorates. Mortality was associated with preexisting hypertension (OR: 2.30; 95%CI: 1.58, 3.54) and diabetes (OR: 1.68; 95%CI: 1.08, 2.61). Conclusions: Elderly and those with comorbidities, in particular hypertension and diabetes, have higher risk for poor outcomes and therefore should receive more attention in the clinical setting. Preventive measures should also be prioritized to protect those groups in order to reduce the severe cases and deaths-associated COVID-19 in armed-conflict.

Download Full-text