scholarly journals DAMPAK DEPRESIASI NILAI TUKAR DAN PERTUMBUHAN UANG BEREDAR TERHADAP INFLASI: APLIKASI THRESHOLD MODEL

2011 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Rizki E. Wimanda

This paper investigates the impact of exchange rate depreciation and money growth to the CPI inflation in Indonesia. Using monthly data from 1980:1 to 2008:12, our econometric evidence shows that there are indeed threshold effects of money growth on inflation, but no threshold effectof exchange rate depreciation on inflation. Even though the threshold value for exchange rate depreciation is found at 8.4%, the F-test suggests that there is no significant difference between the coefficient below and that above the threshold value. While, two threshold values are found for money growth, i.e. 7.1% and 9.8%, and they are statistically different. The impact on inflation is high when money grows by up to 7.1%, it is moderate when money grows by 7.1% to 9.8%, and it is low when money grows by above 9.8%.JEL Classification: C22; E31; E51.Keywords: Inflation, Threshold Effect; Indonesia

2011 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 391-414
Author(s):  
Rizki E. Wimanda

This paper investigates the impact of exchange rate depreciation and money growth to the CPI inflation in Indonesia. Using monthly data from 1980:1 to 2008:12, our econometric evidence shows that there are indeed threshold effects of money growth on inflation, but no threshold effectof exchange rate depreciation on inflation. Even though the threshold value for exchange rate depreciation is found at 8.4%, the F-test suggests that there is no significant difference between the coefficient below and that above the threshold value. While, two threshold values are found for money growth, i.e. 7.1% and 9.8%, and they are statistically different. The impact on inflation is high when money grows by up to 7.1%, it is moderate when money grows by 7.1% to 9.8%, and it is low when money grows by above 9.8%.JEL Classification: C22; E31; E51.Keywbords: Inflation, Threshold Effect; Indonesia


2014 ◽  
Vol 41 (2) ◽  
pp. 196-215 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rizki E. Wimanda

Purpose – This paper aims to investigate the impact of exchange rate depreciation and money growth to the consumer price index (CPI) inflation in Indonesia. Design/methodology/approach – Using threshold model applied to Phillips curve equation. Findings – Using monthly data from 1980:1 to 2008:12, the econometric evidence shows that there are indeed threshold effects of money growth on inflation, but no threshold effect of exchange rate depreciation on inflation. Even though the threshold value for exchange rate depreciation is found at 8.4 percent, the F-test suggests that there is no significant difference between the coefficient below and that above the threshold value. While two threshold values are found for money growth, i.e. 7.1 and 9.8 percent, and they are statistically different. The impact on inflation is high when money grows by up to 7.1 percent, it is moderate when money grows by 7.1-9.8 percent, and it is low when money grows by above 9.8 percent. Research limitations/implications – This research is using methodology proposed by Hansen which the threshold is based on the minimum SSR. The value of SSR will differ from one model to one model. For example, model using quarterly data will give the different result from that using monthly or yearly data. Also, when the author uses the new data, the result could be different. Practical implications – Even though inflation targeting framework has been adopted by Bank Indonesia (BI) since 2005, BI should not disregard the monetary aggregate variable, especially M1. This is because the growth of money is still matter to influence inflation in the short run. The impact on inflation is found to be larger than the impact of exchange rate depreciation when it is below a certain threshold value. Originality/value – This is the first paper that evaluates the threshold effect of exchange rate and money growth in emerging country, especially in Indonesia.


2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 71
Author(s):  
Wang Fushuai ◽  
Xi Ruichao ◽  
Cai Wenxia

Shandong’s TFP growth is higher than Chinese average, but the growth rate has slowed in recent years, appearing the phenomenon that the growth momentum of Shandong’s TFP is insufficient. Using DEA-Malmquist Index to measure Shandong’s TFP growth rate, empirical research from the perspective of financial development finds that financial scale, efficiency of financial institutions, fiscal intervention, and scale of foreign capital utilization have significant nonlinear effects on the growth of TFP. Furtherly, through threshold analysis, the efficiency of financial institutions has a significant threshold effect on TFP growth. Financial scale and fiscal intervention are the main core variables that affect the growth of TFP under the threshold effect, and they have the same effect direction on TFP before and after the threshold value. However, the effect intensity of these two core variables on TFP is different.


2018 ◽  
Vol 53 (4) ◽  
pp. 211-224 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gan-Ochir Doojav

For resource-rich developing economies, the effect of real exchange rate depreciation on trade balance may differ from the standard findings depending on country specific characteristics. This article employs vector error correction model to examine the effect of real exchange rate on trade balance in Mongolia, a resource-rich developing country. Empirical results show that exchange rate depreciation improves trade balance in both short and long run. In particular, the well-known Marshall–Lerner condition holds in the long run; however, there is no evidence of the classic J-curve effects in the short run. The results suggest that the exchange rate flexibility may help to deal effectively with current account deficits and exchange rate risk. JEL Classification: C32, C51, F14, F32


2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 112 ◽  
Author(s):  
KamiliaKamilia LoukilLoukil

We investigate in this paper the effect of financial development on innovation in emerging and developing countries. The estimation of panel threshold model for a sample 54 countries during the period 1980-2009 shows the presence of non linear effects in the relationship between financial development and innovation. We find a threshold value of economic development below which the financial development level has no significant impact on innovation and above which financial development has a significant positive impact on innovation. In sum, our findings suggest that the presence of a healthy economic environment is crucial for financial institutions to offer high-quality financial services, promoting more innovation.


Blood ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 120 (21) ◽  
pp. 4879-4879
Author(s):  
Jean-Richard Eveillard ◽  
Achouak Achour ◽  
Françoise N'Go Sack ◽  
Adrian Tempescul ◽  
Ronan LE Calloc'h ◽  
...  

Abstract Abstract 4879 Background: In Waldenström's Macroglobulinemia (WM), response rates to rituximab (RTX) range from 30% to 75%. RTX is also known to generate a transient IgM flare in some patients. Our study aimed to characterize this phenomenon using the newly Hevylite® assay developed by The Binding Site that specifically quantifies IgM-kappa(K) and IgM-lambda(L). Methods: Between 2007 and 2009, 33 WM patients received a 6-course fludarabine-based regimen, 32 as first and 1 as second line. Partial response (PR), defined as a reduction ≥50% but <90% in baseline monoclonal peak (BMP) on serum protein electrophoresis (SPE), was the minimal goal. Two of the 32 patients treated at first line needed further treatment with CHOP regimen to reach the minimal PR. All received 4 consecutive weekly IV injections of 375 mg/m2 of RTX as consolidation. All were tested using the SPAplus analyzer for residual IgM-K and IgM-L at first and fourth injection. Monoclonal IgM-K or IgM-L level variations and IgM-K/IgM-L ratios were analyzed. SPE and immunofixation (IF) were performed 3 months after the fourth RTX injection to evaluate the impact of consolidation on response. Results: Of the 33 tested, at a variation threshold ≥20% relative to baseline IgM levels, 3 subgroups were defined: 15 or 45.5%, the no-flare patients, showed an increase or a decrease <20%, 11 or 33.3%, the flare patients, showed an increase ≥20% while 7 or 21.2%, the anti-flare patients, showed a decrease ≥20%. In the no-flare subgroup, there was no significant difference in monoclonal K (9) and L (6) light chains while in the 18 but 1 patients of the merged flare and anti-flare subgroups, monoclonal K light chain was overrepresented as there were 17 K vs 1 L (p<0.05). A highest initial IgM-K/L ratio (p<0.005) characterized the flare subgroup. No association was seen with demographic and hematologic characteristics and RTX pharmacokinetics. Regarding Fc gamma receptor (FcγR) IIIa-158 polymorphism, 10 patients were defined as VF and 5 as FF in the no-flare subgroup, 3 as VF, 3 as FF and 1 as VV in the anti-flare subgroup, 3 as VF and 8 as FF in the flare subgroup, with no statistically significant difference between the last 2 subgroups (p=0.22). We also analyzed the data without defining a critical threshold in monoclonal IgM level variations. Patients were, then, separated in 2 subgroups: 17 flare patients and 16 anti-flare patients. Monoclonal K light chain was overrepresented in the 2 subgroups, with 13 K vs 4 L in flare patients and 13 K vs 3 L in anti-flare patients; no statistically significant difference was found between them regarding monoclonal K and L light chains (p=0.32). No association was seen with demographic and hematologic characteristics and RTX pharmacokinetics. Regarding FcgR IIIa-158 polymorphism, there was a statistically significant difference (p=0.03) as 12 patients were of the FF subtype and 5 of the VF one in the flare subgroup while 4 were of the FF subtype, 11 of the VF one and 1 of the VV one in the anti-flare subgroup. At response evaluation 3 months after the fourth injection of RTX, all patients were screened for SPE and 22 for IF. When we compared the 17 patients of the flare subgroup to the 16 ones of the anti-flare subgroup, no patient vs 1 reached complete remission defined as disappearance of BMP on SPE and negativity of IF, 1 vs 6 advanced to very good partial response defined as a decrease ≥90% in BMP on SPE and positivity of IF and the remaining 16 vs 9 improved their partial response by a mean additional reduction of 20% (range: 0–30%) vs 18.75% (range: 0–50%) in BMP, but there was no statistically significant difference in this regard (p=0.79). Conclusions: Using Hevylite® assay, monoclonal IgM up and down variations of at least 20% following RTX occurred in up to 54.5% of our patients and this raised to 100% when no threshold value was considered. Such assay provides a reliable and highly sensitive quantitative assessment, especially in patients whose monoclonal IgM was at low concentration. Patients of the flare subgroup were predominantly of the FF subtype of FcgR IIIa-158 polymorphism while patients of the anti-flare subgroup were predominantly of VF subtype, which was statistically significant. It is tempting to hypothesize a difference in RTX mechanism of action, with ADCC predominating in the anti-flare subgroup and CDC in the flare subgroup. It would be of interest to assess such an hypothesis on a larger cohort and to analyze its impact on response profile. Disclosures: Pietrantuono: The Binding Site: Employment.


Author(s):  
Kenneth Apeh ◽  
Abubakar Muhammad Auwal ◽  
Nweze Nwaze Obinna

The present reality of the Nigerian economy is the fact that inflation has remained unabated in spite of all exchange rate measures that have been adopted by the monetary authority. This calls for investigation into the extent to which exchange rate impact on inflation in Nigeria. The research paper examined the impact of exchange rate depreciation on inflation in Nigeria for the period 1981&ndash;2017, using Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bounds Test Cointegration Procedure. The research shows that inflation rate in Nigeria is highly susceptible to lagged inflation rate, exchange rate, lagged exchange rate, lagged broad money, and lagged gross domestic product at 5% level of significance. A long run relationship was also found to exist between inflation rate, gross domestic product and general government expenditure, indicating that the model has a self-adjusting mechanism for correcting any deviation of the variables from equilibrium. Therefore, this study concludes that exchange rate is an important tool to manage inflation in the country; thus, this paper recommends that policies that have direct influence on inflation as well as exchange rate policies that would checkmate inflation movement in the country, should be used by the Central Bank of Nigeria. Also, monetary growth and import management policies should be put in place to encourage domestic production of export commodities, which are currently short-supplied. In addition, policy makers should not rely on this instrument totally to control inflation, but should use it as a complement to other macro-economic policies.


2014 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 67-89
Author(s):  
Marjan Nasir

This study focuses on the impact of trade liberalization on firm entry and exit in Punjab’s export manufacturing sector over the decade 2001–10. As far as the province’s export industries are concerned, real exchange rate depreciation attracts new firms but also leads weaker firms to exit. A reduction in local or international tariffs, however, has no significant impact on firm entry or exit.


2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-14
Author(s):  
You-Qun Wu ◽  
Huai-Xin Lu ◽  
Xin-Lin Liao ◽  
Jia-Bao Liu ◽  
Jia-Ming Zhu

Based on the theoretical mechanism analysis of FDI, regional innovation, and green economic efficiency, this article uses China’s provincial panel data to calculate the provincial green economic efficiency level based on the three-stage DEA method and uses the system GMM model, intermediary effect model, and threshold model to empirically test the specific effects and transmission paths of FDI on the efficiency of the green economy. Research shows that FDI is one of the important factors that promote the improvement of green economic efficiency. Subregional tests have found that FDI has a significant regional heterogeneity in promoting the efficiency of the green economy. The mediation effect test found that the mediation effect of regional innovation is significant, and FDI can significantly promote the growth of green economic efficiency through regional innovation. The threshold effect analysis found that there are significant and effective double thresholds for regional economic levels, and the impact of FDI on green economic efficiency is heterogeneous within different threshold intervals. The research conclusions provide new inspiration for China to allocate FDI more rationally and efficiently under the new development pattern.


2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mengxin Wang ◽  
Yanling Li ◽  
Gaoke Liao

Against the background of carbon peaking and carbon neutralization, green technology innovation plays an important role in promoting the energy total factor productivity (TFP). This study verifies the impact of green technology innovation on energy TFP in a complete sample and the subsamples by region, by constructing a panel threshold model, and analyzes its influence mechanism on the basis of the mediating effect test based on annual provincial data of mainland China from 2005 to 2018. The empirical results reveal the following: first, with the level of economic development as the threshold variable, there is a threshold effect in the impact of green technology innovation on the energy TFP; second, green technology innovation has an impact on the energy TFP through industrial structure upgrading; that is, industrial structure has a mediating effect in the influence mechanism; and third, there is heterogeneity in the impact of green technology innovation on the energy TFP among different regions in China, and the threshold effect only exists in the western region, since the central and eastern regions have crossed a certain developmental stage.


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