Threshold effects of exchange rate depreciation and money growth on inflation

Purpose – This paper aims to investigate the impact of exchange rate depreciation and money growth to the consumer price index (CPI) inflation in Indonesia. Design/methodology/approach – Using threshold model applied to Phillips curve equation. Findings – Using monthly data from 1980:1 to 2008:12, the econometric evidence shows that there are indeed threshold effects of money growth on inflation, but no threshold effect of exchange rate depreciation on inflation. Even though the threshold value for exchange rate depreciation is found at 8.4 percent, the F-test suggests that there is no significant difference between the coefficient below and that above the threshold value. While two threshold values are found for money growth, i.e. 7.1 and 9.8 percent, and they are statistically different. The impact on inflation is high when money grows by up to 7.1 percent, it is moderate when money grows by 7.1-9.8 percent, and it is low when money grows by above 9.8 percent. Research limitations/implications – This research is using methodology proposed by Hansen which the threshold is based on the minimum SSR. The value of SSR will differ from one model to one model. For example, model using quarterly data will give the different result from that using monthly or yearly data. Also, when the author uses the new data, the result could be different. Practical implications – Even though inflation targeting framework has been adopted by Bank Indonesia (BI) since 2005, BI should not disregard the monetary aggregate variable, especially M1. This is because the growth of money is still matter to influence inflation in the short run. The impact on inflation is found to be larger than the impact of exchange rate depreciation when it is below a certain threshold value. Originality/value – This is the first paper that evaluates the threshold effect of exchange rate and money growth in emerging country, especially in Indonesia.

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DAMPAK DEPRESIASI NILAI TUKAR DAN PERTUMBUHAN UANG BEREDAR TERHADAP INFLASI: APLIKASI THRESHOLD MODEL

Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan ◽

10.21098/bemp.v13i4.266 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 13 (4) ◽

Author(s):

Rizki E. Wimanda

Keyword(s):

Exchange Rate ◽

Threshold Model ◽

Threshold Value ◽

Threshold Effect ◽

Jel Classification ◽

Money Growth ◽

Significant Difference ◽

Econometric Evidence ◽

The Impact ◽

Exchange Rate Depreciation

This paper investigates the impact of exchange rate depreciation and money growth to the CPI inflation in Indonesia. Using monthly data from 1980:1 to 2008:12, our econometric evidence shows that there are indeed threshold effects of money growth on inflation, but no threshold effectof exchange rate depreciation on inflation. Even though the threshold value for exchange rate depreciation is found at 8.4%, the F-test suggests that there is no significant difference between the coefficient below and that above the threshold value. While, two threshold values are found for money growth, i.e. 7.1% and 9.8%, and they are statistically different. The impact on inflation is high when money grows by up to 7.1%, it is moderate when money grows by 7.1% to 9.8%, and it is low when money grows by above 9.8%.JEL Classification: C22; E31; E51.Keywords: Inflation, Threshold Effect; Indonesia

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THE IMPACT OF EXCHANGE RATE DEPRECIATION AND THE MONEY SUPPLY GROWTH ON INFLATION: THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE THRESHOLD MODEL

Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan ◽

10.21098/bemp.v13i4.399 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 13 (4) ◽

pp. 391-414

Author(s):

Rizki E. Wimanda

Keyword(s):

Exchange Rate ◽

Threshold Model ◽

Threshold Value ◽

Threshold Effect ◽

Jel Classification ◽

Money Growth ◽

Significant Difference ◽

Econometric Evidence ◽

The Impact ◽

Exchange Rate Depreciation

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Research on the Impact of Financial Development on TFP——DEA-Malmquist Index and Hansen Threshold Model Based on Panel Data of Shandong Province, China

Journal of Finance Research ◽

10.26549/jfr.v4i2.5122 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 4 (2) ◽

pp. 71

Author(s):

Wang Fushuai ◽

Xi Ruichao ◽

Cai Wenxia

Keyword(s):

Growth Rate ◽

Financial Development ◽

Financial Institutions ◽

Threshold Model ◽

Malmquist Index ◽

Threshold Value ◽

Threshold Effect ◽

Scale Efficiency ◽

Tfp Growth ◽

The Impact

Shandong’s TFP growth is higher than Chinese average, but the growth rate has slowed in recent years, appearing the phenomenon that the growth momentum of Shandong’s TFP is insufficient. Using DEA-Malmquist Index to measure Shandong’s TFP growth rate, empirical research from the perspective of financial development finds that financial scale, efficiency of financial institutions, fiscal intervention, and scale of foreign capital utilization have significant nonlinear effects on the growth of TFP. Furtherly, through threshold analysis, the efficiency of financial institutions has a significant threshold effect on TFP growth. Financial scale and fiscal intervention are the main core variables that affect the growth of TFP under the threshold effect, and they have the same effect direction on TFP before and after the threshold value. However, the effect intensity of these two core variables on TFP is different.

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Threshold Effects of Infectious Disease Outbreaks on Livestock Prices: Cases of African Swine Fever and Avian Influenza in South Korea

Applied Sciences ◽

10.3390/app11115114 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 11 (11) ◽

pp. 5114

Author(s):

Hyung-Chul Rah ◽

Hyeon-Woong Kim ◽

Aziz Nasridinov ◽

Wan-Sup Cho ◽

Seo-Hwa Choi ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Avian Influenza ◽

Infectious Diseases ◽

Disease Outbreaks ◽

African Swine Fever ◽

Threshold Effect ◽

Impact Response ◽

Threshold Effects ◽

Infectious Disease Outbreaks ◽

Retail Prices ◽

The Impact

In this paper we demonstrate the threshold effects of infectious diseases on livestock prices. Daily retail prices of pork and chicken were used as structured data; news and SNS mentions of African Swine Fever (ASF) and Avian Influenza (AI) were used as unstructured data. Models were tested for the threshold effects of disease-related news and SNS frequencies, specifically those related to ASF and AI, on the retail prices of pork and chicken, respectively. The effects were found to exist, and the values of ASF-related news on pork prices were estimated to be −9 and 8, indicating that the threshold autoregressive (TAR) model can be divided into three regimes. The coefficients of the ASF-related SNS frequencies on pork prices were 1.1666, 0.2663 and −0.1035 for regimes 1, 2 and 3, respectively, suggesting that pork prices increased by 1.1666 Korean won in regime 1 when ASF-related SNS frequencies increased. To promote pork consumption by SNS posts, the required SNS frequencies were estimated to have impacts as great as one standard deviation in the pork price. These values were 247.057, 1309.158 and 2817.266 for regimes 1, 2 and 3, respectively. The impact response periods for pork prices were estimated to last 48, 6, and 8 days for regimes 1, 2 and 3, respectively. When the prediction accuracies of the TAR and autoregressive (AR) models with regard to pork prices were compared for the root mean square error, the prediction accuracy of the TAR model was found to be slightly better than that of the AR. When the threshold effect of AI-related news on chicken prices was tested, a linear relationship appeared without a threshold effect. These findings suggest that when infectious diseases such as ASF occur for the first time, the impact on livestock prices is significant, as indicated by the threshold effect and the long impact response period. Our findings also suggest that the impact on livestock prices is not remarkable when infectious diseases occur multiple times, as in the case of AI. To date, this study is the first to suggest the use of SNS to promote meat consumption.

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Macroeconomic fundamentals and dynamics of the Indian rupee-dollar exchange rate

Journal of Financial Economic Policy ◽

10.1108/jfep-11-2014-0069 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 7 (4) ◽

pp. 301-326 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Chandan Sharma ◽

Rajat Setia

Keyword(s):

Exchange Rate ◽

Structural Break ◽

Cointegration Analysis ◽

Least Square ◽

Dollar Exchange Rate ◽

Content Type ◽

Macroeconomic Variables ◽

Indian Rupee ◽

Macroeconomic Fundamentals ◽

The Impact

Purpose – This paper aims to examine the relationship between Indian rupee-US dollar exchange rate and the macroeconomic fundamentals for the post-economic reform period. Design/methodology/approach – The authors have used an empirical model which includes a range of important macroeconomic variables based on the basic monetary theories of exchange rate determination. At the first stage of the analysis, they have tested structural break in the data. Subsequently, they have employed the fully modified ordinary least square, Wald’s coefficient restriction and impulse response functions (IRF) to estimate the monetary model in the long- and short-run horizons. Findings – Results of analyses indicate that the macroeconomic fundamentals determine exchange rate in a significant way, but their effect varies sizably across the periods. The IRF illustrate the importance of interest rate in controlling exchange rate volatility. Practical implications – The analysis of the behavior of inter-relationship among macroeconomic variables will help policymakers in a deep-rooted understanding of this complex and time-varying relationship. Originality/value – Most of the existing studies have tested the impact of a single or a few macroeconomic fundamentals on exchange rate. But in the present study, we have tested the impact of a range of important variables, i.e. money supply, real income or output, price level and trade balance. Further, considering the importance of structural breaks in data, they authors have employed standard tests of structural break and incorporated the issue in the cointegration analysis.

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Research from China finds no significant difference in impact of public service motivation (PSM) in public and private sectors

Human Resource Management International Digest ◽

10.1108/hrmid-08-2021-0169 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽

Keyword(s):

Public Sector ◽

Private Sector ◽

Employee Performance ◽

Intention To Leave ◽

Public And Private ◽

Content Type ◽

The Public ◽

Significant Difference ◽

Set Up ◽

The Impact

Purpose The authors assumed PSM would be higher in the public sector, but they set up a trial to find out if this was the case. Design/methodology/approach To test their theories, the authors conducted two independent surveys. The first consisted of 220 usable responses from public sector employees in Changsha, China. The second survey involved 260 usable responses from private sector employees taking an MBA course at a university in the Changsha district. A questionnaire was used to assess attitudes. Findings The results found no significant difference between the impact of public sector motivation (PSM) on employee performance across the public and private sectors. The data showed that PSM had a significant impact on self-reported employee performance, but the relationship did not differ much between sectors. Meanwhile, it was in the private sector that PSM had the greatest impact on intention to leave. Originality/value The authors said the research project was one of the first to test if the concept of PSM operated in the same way across sectors. It also contributed, they said, to the ongoing debate about PSM in China.

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The impact of rural infrastructural investment on farmers' income growth in China

China Agricultural Economic Review ◽

10.1108/caer-09-2020-0211 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽

Author(s):

Lishuang Wang ◽

Fan Zhang ◽

Zehao Wang ◽

Qiu Tan

Keyword(s):

Rural Economy ◽

Conduction Mechanism ◽

Threshold Model ◽

Rural China ◽

Economic Transformation ◽

Mediating Effect ◽

Infrastructure Investment ◽

Content Type ◽

Rural Infrastructure ◽

The Impact

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to propose and verify the influence mechanism of various kinds of infrastructure investment on farmers' income in rural China. It further analyzes the effect of rural infrastructure investment on rural economic transformation.Design/methodology/approachThis research is used to GMM model to verify the relationship between infrastructure investment and farmers' income; furthermore, the mediating effect model is used to verify the linear conduction mechanism, and panel threshold model is used to verify the nonlinear conduction mechanism.FindingsThe results show that: (1) Rural infrastructure investment can indirectly affect farmers' income by changing land efficiency and land use structure; (2) The impact of infrastructure investment on farmers' income is nonlinear; (3) Increasing infrastructural investment of productivity and transportation will contribute to accelerating the transformation of rural economy.Originality/valueThis paper expands the research on the impact of rural infrastructure investment on farmers' income; it analyzes the inner mechanism and enriches the research contents in this field; the influence of various infrastructure investment on rural economic transformation is further discussed; it provides policy suggestions and theoretical basis for accelerating the transformation of China's rural economy.

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People-centred management for improving construction workers' productivity in Zimbabwe

Built Environment Project and Asset Management ◽

10.1108/bepam-02-2020-0029 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 11 (2) ◽

pp. 350-368

Author(s):

Tirivavi Moyo ◽

Gerrit Crafford ◽

Fidelis Emuze

Keyword(s):

Labour Productivity ◽

Construction Workers ◽

Primary Data ◽

Related Factors ◽

Content Type ◽

Construction Companies ◽

The People ◽

Significant Difference ◽

High Concern ◽

The Impact

PurposeWhile operational factors reduce construction workers' productivity in Zimbabwe, the impact of the people-centred management aspects has not been empirically interrogated as a remedy. This article reports on a study that sought to determine significant people-centred management aspects that lead to improved labour productivity and assesses the existence of statistically significant differences due to the demographic variables of respondents. Demographic-specific strategies that enhance construction “workers” productivity were revealed.Design/methodology/approachThe survey research design using a self-administered questionnaire was deployed to collect the primary data. The design followed a positivist paradigm to evaluate objectively how people-centred management affects construction workers' productivity. The statistical data were descriptively and inferentially analysed.FindingsPeople-centred management was determined to be significant in improving construction workers' productivity, with the most significant aspect being the building of employee confidence in related approaches. Designations and educational levels mostly indicated a statistically significant difference in several aspects that included the adoption of a functional reward culture for workers and training on people-centred principles. Training on-site management and construction workers in people-centred management and its application are crucial to improving construction workers' productivity.Research limitations/implicationsConstruction companies should drastically improve their concern for people while they sustain a high concern for production within their construction sites. Although several factors affect construction workers' productivity, this study determined that management-related factors and people-centred management were significant towards influencing low productivity in Zimbabwe.Originality/valueThe study determined people-centred management and demographic-specific interventions as being able to improve construction workers' productivity in Zimbabwe.

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Does an impaired capacity for self-care impact the prevalence of social and emotional loneliness among elderly people?

Working with Older People ◽

10.1108/wwop-01-2018-0001 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽

Author(s):

Irena Canjuga ◽

Danica Železnik ◽

Marijana Neuberg ◽

Marija Božicevic ◽

Tina Cikac

Keyword(s):

Health Care ◽

Elderly People ◽

Age Distribution ◽

Self Care ◽

The Elderly ◽

The Self ◽

Content Type ◽

Care Assessment ◽

Significant Difference ◽

The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to explore the impact of self-care on the prevalence of loneliness among elderly people living in retirement homes and older people living in their homes/communities. Design/methodology/approach The research was conducted through standardized SELSA-L assessment loneliness questionnaires and the Self Care Assessment Worksheet for self-care assessment. The results were processed using the Kruskal–Wallis test. Findings The obtained results have shown that impaired self-care ability affects the prevalence of loneliness among the elderly almost the same in both groups of participants. However, regarding the relationship between the state of health and self-care, only a statistically significant difference in the prevalence of loneliness is found in the case of the participants living in their homes, with the worst health condition affecting the poorer psychological care. Research limitations/implications It is necessary to point out the limitations of the research, primarily sample limitations and the selected design of the study. The sample consisted of two different and relatively small groups of participants which could adversely affect the representativeness of the sample and reduce the possibility of generalising the results. The next limiting factor is the age distribution the authors used in the research, where the age of the participants as a very important variable was collected by age range and not precisely which consequently resulted in inequality in subgroup sizes. Thus, the middle age (75–85) covers up to ten years, which is a huge range at an older age and can mean major differences in functional ability, and can impact the self-care assessment. Practical implications Nurses are indispensable in care for the elderly and they need to promote and encourage self-care of the elderly through health care. Elderly people living in retirement homes should be allowed to participate equally in health care in order to preserve their own autonomy and dignity. However, to benefit those who live in their homes, nurses should be connected to the local community and thus stimulate various forms of preventative (testing blood sugar levels, blood pressure and educating on the importance of preventive examinations) or recreational activities in the environment of elderly people with the goal of preserving their functional abilities. Originality/value The impact of self-care on loneliness was not sufficiently researched, and this paper contributed to understanding the complexity of loneliness phenomena among the elderly with the aim of developing a model of prevention.

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The Impact of Financial Development on Innovation Activities in Emerging and Developing Countries

Business and Economic Research ◽

10.5296/ber.v10i1.11235 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 10 (1) ◽

pp. 112 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

KamiliaKamilia LoukilLoukil

Keyword(s):

Developing Countries ◽

Financial Development ◽

Financial Services ◽

Positive Impact ◽

Threshold Model ◽

Threshold Value ◽

Innovation Activities ◽

Linear Effects ◽

Emerging And Developing Countries ◽

The Impact

We investigate in this paper the effect of financial development on innovation in emerging and developing countries. The estimation of panel threshold model for a sample 54 countries during the period 1980-2009 shows the presence of non linear effects in the relationship between financial development and innovation. We find a threshold value of economic development below which the financial development level has no significant impact on innovation and above which financial development has a significant positive impact on innovation. In sum, our findings suggest that the presence of a healthy economic environment is crucial for financial institutions to offer high-quality financial services, promoting more innovation.

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