Artificial Intelligence for Infill Well Placement and Design Optimization in Multi-layered/stacked Reservoirs Under Subsurface Uncertainty

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shi Su ◽  
Ralf Schulze-Riegert ◽  
Hussein Mustapha ◽  
Philipp Lang ◽  
Chakib Kada Kloucha

Abstract Effective well placement and design planning accounts for subsurface uncertainties to estimate production and economic outcomes. Reservoir modelling and simulation workflows build on ensemble approaches to manage uncertainties for production forecasting. Ensemble generation and interpretation requires a higher degree of automation analytics and artificial intelligence for fast value extraction and decision support. This work develops practical intelligent workflow steps for a robust infill well placement and design scenario in multi-layered/stacked reservoirs under uncertainty. Potential well targets are classified by an opportunity index defined by a combination of rock and hydrocarbon flow properties as well as connected volumes above a minimum economic volume. Unsupervised learning techniques are applied to automate the search for alternative target areas, so-called hotspot regions. Supervised machine/learning models are used to predict infill well performance based on simulated and/or past production experience. A stochastic evaluation including all ensemble cases is used to capture uncertainty. Vertical, deviated, horizontal and multilateral wells are proposed to optimally target single or connect to multiple hotspot regions under technical and economic constraints. A structured workflow design is applied to a multi-layered/stacked reservoir model. Subsurface uncertainties are described and captured by multiple model realizations, which are constrained in areas of historical wells. An infill well program for a multi-layered/stacked reservoir is defined for incremental production increase under economic constraints. This work shows how robust well location and design builds on the full ensemble of cases with a high degree of automation using analytics and machine-learning techniques. Both production and economic targets are calculated and compared to a reference case for robust solution verification and probability of success. In conclusion, an overall reservoir-driven field development strategy is required for efficient execution. However, automation is well applicable to repetitive workflow steps which includes hotspot search in an ensemble of validated reservoir models. This work presents an integrated, intelligent solution for informed decision making on infill drilling locations and refined well design. Higher degree of automation with embedded intelligence are discussed from case generation to hotspot identification. Aspects of model calibration in a producing field environment are addressed.

2020 ◽  
Vol 28 (2) ◽  
pp. 253-265 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gabriela Bitencourt-Ferreira ◽  
Amauri Duarte da Silva ◽  
Walter Filgueira de Azevedo

Background: The elucidation of the structure of cyclin-dependent kinase 2 (CDK2) made it possible to develop targeted scoring functions for virtual screening aimed to identify new inhibitors for this enzyme. CDK2 is a protein target for the development of drugs intended to modulate cellcycle progression and control. Such drugs have potential anticancer activities. Objective: Our goal here is to review recent applications of machine learning methods to predict ligand- binding affinity for protein targets. To assess the predictive performance of classical scoring functions and targeted scoring functions, we focused our analysis on CDK2 structures. Methods: We have experimental structural data for hundreds of binary complexes of CDK2 with different ligands, many of them with inhibition constant information. We investigate here computational methods to calculate the binding affinity of CDK2 through classical scoring functions and machine- learning models. Results: Analysis of the predictive performance of classical scoring functions available in docking programs such as Molegro Virtual Docker, AutoDock4, and Autodock Vina indicated that these methods failed to predict binding affinity with significant correlation with experimental data. Targeted scoring functions developed through supervised machine learning techniques showed a significant correlation with experimental data. Conclusion: Here, we described the application of supervised machine learning techniques to generate a scoring function to predict binding affinity. Machine learning models showed superior predictive performance when compared with classical scoring functions. Analysis of the computational models obtained through machine learning could capture essential structural features responsible for binding affinity against CDK2.


Author(s):  
Augusto Cerqua ◽  
Roberta Di Stefano ◽  
Marco Letta ◽  
Sara Miccoli

AbstractEstimates of the real death toll of the COVID-19 pandemic have proven to be problematic in many countries, Italy being no exception. Mortality estimates at the local level are even more uncertain as they require stringent conditions, such as granularity and accuracy of the data at hand, which are rarely met. The “official” approach adopted by public institutions to estimate the “excess mortality” during the pandemic draws on a comparison between observed all-cause mortality data for 2020 and averages of mortality figures in the past years for the same period. In this paper, we apply the recently developed machine learning control method to build a more realistic counterfactual scenario of mortality in the absence of COVID-19. We demonstrate that supervised machine learning techniques outperform the official method by substantially improving the prediction accuracy of the local mortality in “ordinary” years, especially in small- and medium-sized municipalities. We then apply the best-performing algorithms to derive estimates of local excess mortality for the period between February and September 2020. Such estimates allow us to provide insights about the demographic evolution of the first wave of the pandemic throughout the country. To help improve diagnostic and monitoring efforts, our dataset is freely available to the research community.


Author(s):  
Linwei Hu ◽  
Jie Chen ◽  
Joel Vaughan ◽  
Soroush Aramideh ◽  
Hanyu Yang ◽  
...  

Author(s):  
Bruce Mellado ◽  
Jianhong Wu ◽  
Jude Dzevela Kong ◽  
Nicola Luigi Bragazzi ◽  
Ali Asgary ◽  
...  

COVID-19 is imposing massive health, social and economic costs. While many developed countries have started vaccinating, most African nations are waiting for vaccine stocks to be allocated and are using clinical public health (CPH) strategies to control the pandemic. The emergence of variants of concern (VOC), unequal access to the vaccine supply and locally specific logistical and vaccine delivery parameters, add complexity to national CPH strategies and amplify the urgent need for effective CPH policies. Big data and artificial intelligence machine learning techniques and collaborations can be instrumental in an accurate, timely, locally nuanced analysis of multiple data sources to inform CPH decision-making, vaccination strategies and their staged roll-out. The Africa-Canada Artificial Intelligence and Data Innovation Consortium (ACADIC) has been established to develop and employ machine learning techniques to design CPH strategies in Africa, which requires ongoing collaboration, testing and development to maximize the equity and effectiveness of COVID-19-related CPH interventions.


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