A modified prediction system using combined preoperative anthropomorphic imbalance and fistula risk score for predicting the occurrence of clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula after pancreaticoduodenectomy
Abstract Background: The aim of this study was to evaluate the efficacy of the combination of fistula risk score (FRS) and preoperative body composition factors for predicting the occurrence of clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula (CR-POPF) after pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD).Methods: In this study, 136 consecutive patients who underwent PD between 2006 and 2018 were enrolled. The risk factors of CR-POPF (grades B and C) were analyzed. Preoperative visceral adipose tissue area (VATA), skeletal mass index (SMI), and subcutaneous adipose tissue area (SATA) were calculated from computed tomography data.Results: The overall 30-day mortality and morbidity rates were 0.7% and 38%, respectively. The incidence rates of grade B and C CR-POPF were 27% and 4%, respectively. A univariate analysis revealed that male sex, habitual smoking, prognostic nutritional index < 45, VATA/SATA ≥ 0.9, VATA/SMI ≥ 1.4, and FRS > 4 were significantly associated with the incidence of CR-POPF. A multivariate analysis revealed that VATA/SMI ≥ 1.4 and FRS > 4 were the independent risk factors of CR-POPF. A modified prediction score using the combination of VATA/SMI and FRS significantly predicted CR-POPF after PD.Conclusions: Preoperative anthropomorphic imbalance and FRS were equally accurate in predicting CR-POPF. Patients with high-risk factors should be closely monitored during the postoperative period.