scholarly journals The Impact of Okun Misery Index on Out-of-pocket-payments in the Iranian Healthcare System

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aziz Rezapour ◽  
Salar Ghorbani ◽  
Eisavi Mahmoud ◽  
Saeed Bagheri Faradonbeh
Keyword(s):  
Healthcare System ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Misery Index ◽  
Out Of Pocket Payments ◽  
Error Coefficient ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract Introduction: One criterion to measure the achievement of a government's performance is stability and decreasing the misery index that is the sum of inflation and unemployment. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the impact of misery index on patients' out-of-pocket-payments in the Iranian healthcare system. Methods: This paper has used time-series data from 2000 to 2016 and it used three methods to examine the relationship between variables. First, the Dickey-Fuller test was used to evaluate the stationary of variables. Second, the Toda-Yamamoto causality test was used to test causality between variables. Third, Auto-Regressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) was used to test the long-run relationship. Analyzing data was conducted by Eviews 9 software.Results: The results showed that there was a bi-directional causal relationship between the misery index and the out-of-pocket-payments of patients in the health system. Also, increasing 1 unit of misery index increased 1.33 units of out-of-pocket-payments. The correction error coefficient was -0.435 that meant this amount was adjusted per period. In other words, it lasted more than 2 years and less than 3 years that the Nonequilibrium points converge to their long-run points of the relationship.Conclusion: Implementing appropriate policies in order to reduce unemployment and inflation rate can decline the out-of-pocket-payments in the Iranian healthcare system.

scholarly journals COINTEGRATING RELATION BETWEEN EXCHANGE RATE AND GOLD PRICE

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (10) ◽  
pp. 263-269
Author(s):  
Ranjusha ◽  
Devasia ◽  
Nandakumar
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Gold Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
The Relationship

The very purpose of this paper is to analyse the relationship between gold price and Rupee – Dollar exchange rate in India. The study utilises the annual data of exchange Rate (ER) and Gold Price (GP) from 1970 to 2015 to determine the relationship. Different econometric tools like Unit root test, Johansen co integration test, Vector error correction model, Granger causality test are used for detecting the long run relation, if any between the mentioned variables. The result shows that there exists a long run cointegrating relation between the variables. That is we can stabilise the Gold Price movement by controlling the exchange rate fluctuations. Likewise it also shows that Exchange rate doesn’t Granger cause to Gold price and vice versa. It means that the time series data of one vasriable cannot be used to predict another.

scholarly journals Impact of Exports and Imports on Economic Growth in Rwanda: 1961-2018

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charles Ruranga ◽  
Daniel S. Ruturwa ◽  
Valens Rwema
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Development Indicators ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Equilibrium Relationship ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Annual Time Series ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The aim of this paper is to investigate the impact of trade on economic growth in Rwanda. This paper uses exports and imports for trade and gross domestic product for economic growth. Research questions were formulated as (1) Are exports, imports and economic growth cointegrated? (2) Is there a long or short run relationship between those Variables? (3) Are there any causal relationships between factors (4) what the direction of the causality is it? Annual time series data from World Development Indicators for the period from 1961 to 2018 have been used. The methods of linear regression for estimation of Vector Auto regressions models have been used. Our findings established that VAR was appropriate model, and GDP, Exports were stationary at first differences while Imports was stationary at second difference but not at levels. Hence the two series were integrated of order one and the third one was integrated of order two. Tests of cointegration indicates that the three variables were not cointegrated, implying there was no long run equilibrium relationship between the three series. The causality test indicated that exports and imports influenced GDP. On the other hand, we found that there was a strong evidence of unidirectional causality from exports to economic growth. However, there was bidirectional causality between GDP and imports. These results provide evidence that exports and imports, thus, were seen as the source of economic growth in Rwanda.

The Relationship Between Inflation and Unemployment in Namibia Within the Framework of the Phillips Curve

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (5) ◽  
pp. 7-16
Author(s):  
Johanna Pangeiko Nautwima ◽  
Asa Romeo Asa
Keyword(s):  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Phillips Curve ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Policy Formulation ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Relationship

This study intended to empirically validate the applicability of the Phillips Curve in Namibia since independence, using semi-annual time series data, and taking into account the periods of the annus horribilis of the global financial crises and the Coronavirus Disease pandemic. It further sought to examine the nature of the relationship between inflation and unemployment to determine whether it is short-run or long-run and establish the causal relationship between the variables using various econometric analyses. The unit root tests indicate that the variables were stationary in their level forms, implying the absence of the long-run relationship. Hence, the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) model was performed to measure the short-run relationship between the variables. Results from the OLS analysis reveal a bidirectional nexus between inflation and unemployment, validating the presence of the Phillips Curve in the Namibian economy. These results correspond to the findings that incorporated the periods of economic shocks; thus, adjudging the critics of the Philips Curve regarding the consideration of economic shockwaves to be nonsensical in the Namibian economy. Finally, Granger causality test was conducted to establish the causal relationship between the variables, and results found inflation and unemployment to be unrelated. Based on these findings, the study recommends policymakers to adopt a policy mix, skewed to reducing unemployment predominately among the youth since the issues cannot be addressed simultaneously. Lastly, the study suggests future investigations to assess panel analyses on the phenomenon concerning developing countries, particularly those in the same region. It also recommends a significant focus on the determinants of inflation and unemployment since the variables were found to be independent of each other. This will give accurate directives to policymakers in an attempt to address the matter in terms of policy formulation and assimilation when they understand where the issue is deriving from.

scholarly journals Modeling the Impact of Climate and Non-Climatic Factors on Cereal Production: Evidence from Indian Agriculture

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abbas Ali Chandio ◽  
Yuansheg Jiang ◽  
Asad Amin ◽  
Waqar Akram ◽  
Ilhan Ozturk ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Labor Force ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Indian Agriculture ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Cereal Production ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The underpinned study examines the effects of climatic and non-climatic factors on Indian agriculture, cereal production, and yield using the country-level time series data of 1965–2015. With the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach, the long-term equilibrium association among the variables has been explored. The results reveal that climatic factors like CO2 emissions and temperature adversely affect agricultural output, while rainfall positively affects it. Likewise, non-climatic factors, including energy used, financial development, and labor force, affect agricultural production positively in the long run. The estimated long-run results further demonstrate that CO2 emissions and rainfall positively affect both cereal production and yield, while temperature adversely affects. The results exhibit that the cereal cropped area, energy used, financial development, and labor force significantly and positively impact the long-run cereal production and yield. Finally, pairwise granger causality test confirmed that both climatic and non-climatc factors are significantly influencing agriculture and cereal production in India. Based on these results, policymakers and governmental institutions should formulate coherent adaptation measures and mitigation policies to tackle the adverse climate change effects on agriculture and its production of cereals.

scholarly journals Revisit the relationship between two inflation indicators: Case of Pakistan

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Saghir Ghauri
Keyword(s):  
Granger Causality ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Wholesale Price ◽  
Food Group ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
General Group ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Relationship

This research paper determines the association between two inflation indicators, consumer price index and wholesale price index in three groups' i.e. general group, food group, and non-food group. The objective is to f ind out if the relationship is unidirectional or bidirectional between CPI and WPI in all groups. For this purpose monthly data from July 1971 to December 2019 has been used. Furthermore, Cointegration has been calculated via Johansen's cointegration test on time series data to discover if the long-run aff iliation occurs between the variables. Before cointegration, it is essential to discover the stationarity of the variables for which the augmented dickey fuller test has been used at the f irst difference. Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) is also employed to check for the disturbances of divergence or convergence f inally Granger causality/Block exogenity test is applied to discover causality between variables, it also specifies unidirectional relationship or bidirectional relationship. As a result, it is found that there is a signif icant co-integration equation which indicates that there is an existence of long-run association amongst variables. On the other hand, there is also an indication of the short-run relationship among variables. Finally, a two-way causal relationship is indicated by the granger causality test, between CPI and WPI in general and food group and one-way causal association between CPI and WPI in the non-food group.

scholarly journals Effect of Foreign Aids on Economic Growth in Nigeria

2020 ◽  
pp. 194-204
Author(s):  
Isiaka Najeem Ayodeji ◽  
Makinde Wasiu Abiodun
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
The Impact

This study investigated the impact of foreign aids on economic growth in Nigeria using time series data spanned from 1990 to 2017. The research considered the secondary data that were gathered from CBN statistical bulletin 2017 and World Bank Data Indictors. Ordinary Least Square techniques was adopted in the study and used Augmented Dickey-Fuller Unit Root Test, co integration test, granger causality test, ECM to estimates data employed. The findings revealed that all the variables employed were stationary at first difference and integrated at the same order1(I), the co-integration test shows that variables are co-integrated at one co-integrating equation which means that there is a long run relationship. The Error Correction Model established that the error that caused disequilibrium in the short run is being corrected in the long-run at a speed of adjustment at 6%. The findings revealed real gross domestic product responds inversely to changes in official development assistance and foreign direct investment. Based on these findings the study concluded that foreign aids have a significant impact on economic growth in Nigeria. Different diagnostic tests are applied in order to confirm the major assumption of multiple regression analysis like multicollinearity, heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation. Therefore, the study recommends among others that government needs to formulate strong and effective education and healthcare policies to facilitate and attract investment in the sectors and improve their efficiency in the long-run that will influence productivity.

scholarly journals Exploring the linkages of Foreign Direct Investment in Spain since 1970’s: an ARDL approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (1) ◽  
pp. 39-54
Author(s):  
Verónica Cañal Fernández ◽  
Julio Tascón Fernández ◽  
María Gómez Martín
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Relationship

This paper analyzes the relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI), exports and economic growth in Spain using annual time series data for the period 1970 to 2016. To examine these linkages the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration for the long-run is applied. The results confirm a long-run relationship among the examined variables. The Granger causality test indicates a strong unidirectional causality between FDI and exports with direction from FDI to exports. Besides, the results for the relationship between FDI and economic growth are interesting and indicate that there is no significant Granger causality from FDI to economic growth and vice-versa.

scholarly journals THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN POLITICAL RISK AND EMPLOYMENT IN TOURISM: A CASE OF SOUTH AFRICA

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 78-88
Author(s):  
Jean Claude Manaliyo ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Political Risk ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Tourism Sector ◽  
Short Run ◽  
High Level ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

Political risk is one of the determinants of employment in the tourism industry. Changes in the level of political risk in a country result in fluctuations in employment in the tourism sector. Countries with a high level of political risk experience a decline in employment whereas countries with a low level of political risk experience an increase in employment. This paper investigates the impact of political risk on employment in South Africa’s tourism industry using quarterly time series data for the period between 2007 and 2017. The study employs the Autoregressive Distribution Lag (ARDL) model to determine the impact of political risk on employment in tourism in both the short- and long-run. The results from the analysis reveal that political risk has both short- and long-run effects on employment in South Africa’s tourism industry. When the level of political risk declines by 1%, employment grows by 5.016% in the long-run whereas employment increases by 1.51% in the short-run when the level of political risk declines by 1%. These results imply that governments have to keep the level of political risk low by avoiding political risk events and actions for the tourism industry to create additional employment opportunities.

Impact of exchange rate and oil price on the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk: Evidence from Malaysian capital market

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 27
Author(s):  
Huda Arshad ◽  
Ruhaini Muda ◽  
Ismah Osman
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Capital Market ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Sovereign Bond ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This study analyses the impact of exchange rate and oil prices on the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk for Malaysian capital market. This study aims to ascertain the effect of weakening Malaysian Ringgit and declining of crude oil price on the fixed income investors in the emerging capital market. This study utilises daily time series data of Malaysian exchange rate, oil price and the yield of Malaysian sovereign bond and sukuk from year 2006 until 2015. The findings show that the weakening of exchange rate and oil prices contribute different impacts in the short and long run. In the short run, the exchange rate and oil prices does not have a direct relation with the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk. However, in the long run, the result reveals that there is a significant relationship between exchange rate and oil prices on the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk. It is evident that only a unidirectional causality relation is present between exchange rate and oil price towards selected yield of Malaysian sovereign bond and sukuk. This study provides numerical and empirical insights on issues relating to capital market that supports public authorities and private institutions on their decision and policymaking process.

EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF INDIA’S FOREIGN TRADE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (10) ◽  
pp. 105-111
Author(s):  
Khujan Singh ◽  
Anil Kumar
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Significant Implication ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
First Order ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Directional Relation ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
Vecm Granger Causality

The present study is an attempt to examine long run relationship among India’s GDP, Exports and Imports for which yearly time series data from 1995 to 2018 has been collected. Data for India’s GDP has been collected from RBI website and India’s export and import data has been collected form Ministry of Commerce and Industry website. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test for stationarity found that studied variables become stationary at first order of difference. While, Johnson cointegration test revealed long run cointegration between India’s GDP, exports and imports. The results of VECM Granger causality test exhibited bi-directional relationship between India’s GDP and India’s exports, whereas uni-directional relation has been found between India’s GDP and India’s imports. These results have significant implication for India’s export import policy and to achieve a target of $5 trillion economy till 2024-2025.

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