scholarly journals Modeling the Impact of Climate and Non-Climatic Factors on Cereal Production: Evidence from Indian Agriculture

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abbas Ali Chandio ◽  
Yuansheg Jiang ◽  
Asad Amin ◽  
Waqar Akram ◽  
Ilhan Ozturk ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Labor Force ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Indian Agriculture ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Cereal Production ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The underpinned study examines the effects of climatic and non-climatic factors on Indian agriculture, cereal production, and yield using the country-level time series data of 1965–2015. With the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach, the long-term equilibrium association among the variables has been explored. The results reveal that climatic factors like CO2 emissions and temperature adversely affect agricultural output, while rainfall positively affects it. Likewise, non-climatic factors, including energy used, financial development, and labor force, affect agricultural production positively in the long run. The estimated long-run results further demonstrate that CO2 emissions and rainfall positively affect both cereal production and yield, while temperature adversely affects. The results exhibit that the cereal cropped area, energy used, financial development, and labor force significantly and positively impact the long-run cereal production and yield. Finally, pairwise granger causality test confirmed that both climatic and non-climatc factors are significantly influencing agriculture and cereal production in India. Based on these results, policymakers and governmental institutions should formulate coherent adaptation measures and mitigation policies to tackle the adverse climate change effects on agriculture and its production of cereals.

scholarly journals Impact of Exports and Imports on Economic Growth in Rwanda: 1961-2018

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charles Ruranga ◽  
Daniel S. Ruturwa ◽  
Valens Rwema
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Development Indicators ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Equilibrium Relationship ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Annual Time Series ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The aim of this paper is to investigate the impact of trade on economic growth in Rwanda. This paper uses exports and imports for trade and gross domestic product for economic growth. Research questions were formulated as (1) Are exports, imports and economic growth cointegrated? (2) Is there a long or short run relationship between those Variables? (3) Are there any causal relationships between factors (4) what the direction of the causality is it? Annual time series data from World Development Indicators for the period from 1961 to 2018 have been used. The methods of linear regression for estimation of Vector Auto regressions models have been used. Our findings established that VAR was appropriate model, and GDP, Exports were stationary at first differences while Imports was stationary at second difference but not at levels. Hence the two series were integrated of order one and the third one was integrated of order two. Tests of cointegration indicates that the three variables were not cointegrated, implying there was no long run equilibrium relationship between the three series. The causality test indicated that exports and imports influenced GDP. On the other hand, we found that there was a strong evidence of unidirectional causality from exports to economic growth. However, there was bidirectional causality between GDP and imports. These results provide evidence that exports and imports, thus, were seen as the source of economic growth in Rwanda.

scholarly journals The Impact of Okun Misery Index on Out-of-pocket-payments in the Iranian Healthcare System

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aziz Rezapour ◽  
Salar Ghorbani ◽  
Eisavi Mahmoud ◽  
Saeed Bagheri Faradonbeh
Keyword(s):  
Healthcare System ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Misery Index ◽  
Out Of Pocket Payments ◽  
Error Coefficient ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract Introduction: One criterion to measure the achievement of a government's performance is stability and decreasing the misery index that is the sum of inflation and unemployment. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the impact of misery index on patients' out-of-pocket-payments in the Iranian healthcare system. Methods: This paper has used time-series data from 2000 to 2016 and it used three methods to examine the relationship between variables. First, the Dickey-Fuller test was used to evaluate the stationary of variables. Second, the Toda-Yamamoto causality test was used to test causality between variables. Third, Auto-Regressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) was used to test the long-run relationship. Analyzing data was conducted by Eviews 9 software.Results: The results showed that there was a bi-directional causal relationship between the misery index and the out-of-pocket-payments of patients in the health system. Also, increasing 1 unit of misery index increased 1.33 units of out-of-pocket-payments. The correction error coefficient was -0.435 that meant this amount was adjusted per period. In other words, it lasted more than 2 years and less than 3 years that the Nonequilibrium points converge to their long-run points of the relationship.Conclusion: Implementing appropriate policies in order to reduce unemployment and inflation rate can decline the out-of-pocket-payments in the Iranian healthcare system.

scholarly journals Effect of Foreign Aids on Economic Growth in Nigeria

2020 ◽  
pp. 194-204
Author(s):  
Isiaka Najeem Ayodeji ◽  
Makinde Wasiu Abiodun
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
The Impact

This study investigated the impact of foreign aids on economic growth in Nigeria using time series data spanned from 1990 to 2017. The research considered the secondary data that were gathered from CBN statistical bulletin 2017 and World Bank Data Indictors. Ordinary Least Square techniques was adopted in the study and used Augmented Dickey-Fuller Unit Root Test, co integration test, granger causality test, ECM to estimates data employed. The findings revealed that all the variables employed were stationary at first difference and integrated at the same order1(I), the co-integration test shows that variables are co-integrated at one co-integrating equation which means that there is a long run relationship. The Error Correction Model established that the error that caused disequilibrium in the short run is being corrected in the long-run at a speed of adjustment at 6%. The findings revealed real gross domestic product responds inversely to changes in official development assistance and foreign direct investment. Based on these findings the study concluded that foreign aids have a significant impact on economic growth in Nigeria. Different diagnostic tests are applied in order to confirm the major assumption of multiple regression analysis like multicollinearity, heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation. Therefore, the study recommends among others that government needs to formulate strong and effective education and healthcare policies to facilitate and attract investment in the sectors and improve their efficiency in the long-run that will influence productivity.

scholarly journals The Impact of Saving and Financial Development on Economic Growth in Turkey

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Hatem Hatef Abdulkadhim Altaee ◽  
Mohamed Khaled Al-Jafari
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Domestic Saving ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

Since saving and financial development are vital to economic growth, this research empirically investigates the impact of saving and financial development on economic growth in Turkey. Therefore, a time series data from 1968 until 2017 were tested utilizing both the error correction model (ECM) and the autoregressive distributed lag approach (ARDL). The findings reveal an existence of a short-run and a long-run positive and significant effect of savings and financial development on economic growth. Conventional inputs such as capital and labor proved to be the most important factors in achieving economic growth in Turkey. The study concludes that an appropriate policy mix will enhance domestic saving in the country.

Impact of exchange rate and oil price on the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk: Evidence from Malaysian capital market

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 27
Author(s):  
Huda Arshad ◽  
Ruhaini Muda ◽  
Ismah Osman
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Capital Market ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Sovereign Bond ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This study analyses the impact of exchange rate and oil prices on the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk for Malaysian capital market. This study aims to ascertain the effect of weakening Malaysian Ringgit and declining of crude oil price on the fixed income investors in the emerging capital market. This study utilises daily time series data of Malaysian exchange rate, oil price and the yield of Malaysian sovereign bond and sukuk from year 2006 until 2015. The findings show that the weakening of exchange rate and oil prices contribute different impacts in the short and long run. In the short run, the exchange rate and oil prices does not have a direct relation with the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk. However, in the long run, the result reveals that there is a significant relationship between exchange rate and oil prices on the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk. It is evident that only a unidirectional causality relation is present between exchange rate and oil price towards selected yield of Malaysian sovereign bond and sukuk. This study provides numerical and empirical insights on issues relating to capital market that supports public authorities and private institutions on their decision and policymaking process.

EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF INDIA’S FOREIGN TRADE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (10) ◽  
pp. 105-111
Author(s):  
Khujan Singh ◽  
Anil Kumar
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Significant Implication ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
First Order ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Directional Relation ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
Vecm Granger Causality

The present study is an attempt to examine long run relationship among India’s GDP, Exports and Imports for which yearly time series data from 1995 to 2018 has been collected. Data for India’s GDP has been collected from RBI website and India’s export and import data has been collected form Ministry of Commerce and Industry website. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test for stationarity found that studied variables become stationary at first order of difference. While, Johnson cointegration test revealed long run cointegration between India’s GDP, exports and imports. The results of VECM Granger causality test exhibited bi-directional relationship between India’s GDP and India’s exports, whereas uni-directional relation has been found between India’s GDP and India’s imports. These results have significant implication for India’s export import policy and to achieve a target of $5 trillion economy till 2024-2025.

Does Public Debt Service Expenditure Crowd-Out Economic Growth? Empirical Evidence from an African Developing Country

2019 ◽  
Vol 64 (3) ◽  
pp. 23-38
Author(s):  
Talknice Saungweme ◽  
Nicholas M. Odhiambo
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Policy Formulation ◽  
Debt Service ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

Abstract This paper contributes to the ongoing debate on the impact of public debt service on economic growth; and it provides an evidence-based approach to public policy formulation in Zimbabwe. The empirical analysis was performed by applying the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) technique to annual time-series data from 1970 to 2017. The study findings reveal that the impact of public debt service on economic growth in Zimbabwe is negative in the short run but positive in the long run. The results are suggestive of the existence of a crowding-out effect of public debt service in Zimbabwe in the short run and a crowding-in effect in the long run. In view of these findings, the government should consider fiscal and financial policies that promote a constant supply of long-term finance, long-term fixed investments, and extension of a government securities maturity structure so as to ensure sustainable short- and long-term public debt service expenditures. The study further recommends the strengthening of non-distortionary revenue mobilisation reforms to reduce market distortions and boost domestic investment.

scholarly journals Political Stability and its Impact on Economic Growth of Pakistan (1988-2018): A Time Series Analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 273-282
Author(s):  
Majid Hussain Phul ◽  
Muhammad Saleem Rahpoto ◽  
Ghulam Muhammad Mangnejo
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Positive Effect

This research paper empirically investigates the outcome of Political stability on economic growth (EG) of Pakistan for the period of 1988 to 2018. Political stability (PS), gross fixed capital formation (GFCF), total labor force (TLF) and Inflation (INF) are important explanatory variables. Whereas for model selection GDPr is used as the dependent variable. To check the stationary of time series data Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) unit root (UR) test has been used,  and whereas to find out the long run relationship among variables, OLS method has been used. The analysis the impact of PS on EG (EG) in the short run, VAR model has been used. The outcomes show that all the variables (PS, GFCF, TLF and INF) have a significantly positive effect on the EG of Pakistan in the long run period. But the effect of PS on GDP is smaller. Further, in this research we are trying to see the short run relationship between GDP and other explanatory variables. The outcomes show that PS does not have such effect on GDP in the short run analysis. While GFCF, TLF and INF have significantly positive effect on GDP of Pakistan in the short run period.

scholarly journals The Nexus between Export and Economic Growth in Tanzania

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. p95
Author(s):  
Romanus L. Dimoso (PhD, Economics) ◽  
UTONGA, Dickson (MSc. Economics)
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Test Results ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
The Government ◽  
Econometrics Analysis

This study explored the causal relationship between exports and economic growth in Tanzania. It analyzed time series data for the period of 1980 to 2015. Economic growth is measured in terms of growth per cent while exports are measured in percentage change of goods and services sold abroad. Econometrics analysis was employed in the due course. Such procedures as testing for the presence of unit root, co-integration and causality were done. Furthermore, the Johansen co-integration and Granger causality tests were employed to examine the long-run relationship among variables. The results of co-integration indicate the existence of one co-integrating equation. The causality test results exhibited causality which runs from economic growth to exports. The results conclude that, in the long run, there is a relationship between exports and economic growth in Tanzania. This study recommends the Government to make efforts to improve exports and eventually, in the long-run, rejuvenating the economy.

scholarly journals COINTEGRATING RELATION BETWEEN EXCHANGE RATE AND GOLD PRICE

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (10) ◽  
pp. 263-269
Author(s):  
Ranjusha ◽  
Devasia ◽  
Nandakumar
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Gold Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
The Relationship

The very purpose of this paper is to analyse the relationship between gold price and Rupee – Dollar exchange rate in India. The study utilises the annual data of exchange Rate (ER) and Gold Price (GP) from 1970 to 2015 to determine the relationship. Different econometric tools like Unit root test, Johansen co integration test, Vector error correction model, Granger causality test are used for detecting the long run relation, if any between the mentioned variables. The result shows that there exists a long run cointegrating relation between the variables. That is we can stabilise the Gold Price movement by controlling the exchange rate fluctuations. Likewise it also shows that Exchange rate doesn’t Granger cause to Gold price and vice versa. It means that the time series data of one vasriable cannot be used to predict another.

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