EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF INDIA’S FOREIGN TRADE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (10) ◽  
pp. 105-111
Author(s):  
Khujan Singh ◽  
Anil Kumar
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Significant Implication ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
First Order ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Directional Relation ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
Vecm Granger Causality

The present study is an attempt to examine long run relationship among India’s GDP, Exports and Imports for which yearly time series data from 1995 to 2018 has been collected. Data for India’s GDP has been collected from RBI website and India’s export and import data has been collected form Ministry of Commerce and Industry website. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test for stationarity found that studied variables become stationary at first order of difference. While, Johnson cointegration test revealed long run cointegration between India’s GDP, exports and imports. The results of VECM Granger causality test exhibited bi-directional relationship between India’s GDP and India’s exports, whereas uni-directional relation has been found between India’s GDP and India’s imports. These results have significant implication for India’s export import policy and to achieve a target of $5 trillion economy till 2024-2025.

scholarly journals The Dynamic of Macroeconomics Elements in Malaysia: Further Insight into Causality Analysis

2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Dayang Hummida Abang Abdul Rahman ◽  
Nuzaihan Majidi ◽  
Jati Kasuma ◽  
Yusman Yacob ◽  
Dayang Affizzah Awang Marikan
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Causality Analysis ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
Short Run

This paper intends to explore the causality effect between Growth Domestic Product (GDP), population and unemployment in Malaysia. Based on the observation of Malaysia’s historical data, there is a distinct movement in each of these individual macroeconomics components over the years. Past literature within the same area has illustrated various patterns on the possibility of a causal relationship that each variable has on one another. Several stages of analysis are conducted to verify the presence of causality effect from Malaysian economic perspective, which includes unit root test that employs the Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF), Phillips-Perron (PP) and Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) procedures, followed by Johansen and Juselius test of cointegration and Granger-causality test based on Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) using E-views software. Each procedure is conducted using Malaysia’s time series data for each of the three elements from 1980 to 2013 obtained from Malaysia’s Department of Statistics. Our findings revealed that there is one cointegration detected for the tested variables; whereas the results indicate that population can Granger cause unemployment in the short run. Furthermore, it is found that unemployment solely bears the effect from short run adjustment to bring about the long run equilibrium within the tested framework. This study is important for the policy maker to understand the reason behind the causality effect that could jeopardize the rate of unemployment in Malaysia. As the attention is given specifically to three variables particularly GDP, population and unemployment, this study is aimed at broadening the prospect for further investigation within the same area of macroeconomics.

scholarly journals COINTEGRATING RELATION BETWEEN EXCHANGE RATE AND GOLD PRICE

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (10) ◽  
pp. 263-269
Author(s):  
Ranjusha ◽  
Devasia ◽  
Nandakumar
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Gold Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
The Relationship

The very purpose of this paper is to analyse the relationship between gold price and Rupee – Dollar exchange rate in India. The study utilises the annual data of exchange Rate (ER) and Gold Price (GP) from 1970 to 2015 to determine the relationship. Different econometric tools like Unit root test, Johansen co integration test, Vector error correction model, Granger causality test are used for detecting the long run relation, if any between the mentioned variables. The result shows that there exists a long run cointegrating relation between the variables. That is we can stabilise the Gold Price movement by controlling the exchange rate fluctuations. Likewise it also shows that Exchange rate doesn’t Granger cause to Gold price and vice versa. It means that the time series data of one vasriable cannot be used to predict another.

scholarly journals The Effect of Liquidity on Financial Performance: Evidence from Turkish Retail Industry

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 63 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kartal Demirgünes
Keyword(s):  
Financial Performance ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Retail Industry ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Dynamic Ols ◽  
Retail Merchandising

The aim of this study is to analyse the effect of liquidity on financial performance (<em>in terms of</em> profitability) by using a time-series data of Turkish retail industry (consisting of Borsa Istanbul (BIST) listed retail merchandising firms) in the period of 1998.Q1-2015.Q3. The stationarity of series and the co-integration relationship between them are tested by the unit root test of Carrioni-i-Silvestre et al. (2009) and the co-integration test of Maki (2012), respectively. Co-integration coefficients are estimated by Stock and Watson (1993) dynamic OLS method. Finally, causal relationships between the series are tested by Hacker and Hatemi (2012) bootstrap causality test. Results of Maki (2012) test show that the series are co-integrated in the long-run. While long-run parameters estimated posit a significantly positive relationship between financial performance and liquidity, causality test does not indicate any direction of causality between the series.

scholarly journals Effect of Foreign Aids on Economic Growth in Nigeria

2020 ◽  
pp. 194-204
Author(s):  
Isiaka Najeem Ayodeji ◽  
Makinde Wasiu Abiodun
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
The Impact

This study investigated the impact of foreign aids on economic growth in Nigeria using time series data spanned from 1990 to 2017. The research considered the secondary data that were gathered from CBN statistical bulletin 2017 and World Bank Data Indictors. Ordinary Least Square techniques was adopted in the study and used Augmented Dickey-Fuller Unit Root Test, co integration test, granger causality test, ECM to estimates data employed. The findings revealed that all the variables employed were stationary at first difference and integrated at the same order1(I), the co-integration test shows that variables are co-integrated at one co-integrating equation which means that there is a long run relationship. The Error Correction Model established that the error that caused disequilibrium in the short run is being corrected in the long-run at a speed of adjustment at 6%. The findings revealed real gross domestic product responds inversely to changes in official development assistance and foreign direct investment. Based on these findings the study concluded that foreign aids have a significant impact on economic growth in Nigeria. Different diagnostic tests are applied in order to confirm the major assumption of multiple regression analysis like multicollinearity, heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation. Therefore, the study recommends among others that government needs to formulate strong and effective education and healthcare policies to facilitate and attract investment in the sectors and improve their efficiency in the long-run that will influence productivity.

Macroeconomics and Its Impact on Stock Markets of India, China, and Japan

2019 ◽  
pp. 177-194
Author(s):  
Amith Vikram Megaravalli
Keyword(s):  
Stock Markets ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
China And Japan

The objective of this chapter is to examine the long-run and the short-run relationship between India, China, and Japanese stock markets and key macroeconomic variables such as exchange rates and inflation (proxied by consumer price index) of ASIAN 3 economies (India, China, and Japan). Monthly time series data spanning the period from 2008 January to November 2016 has been used. The unit root test, the cointegration test, Granger causality test, and pooled mean group estimator have been applied to derive the long-run and short-run statistical dynamics. The findings of pooled estimated results of ASIAN 3 countries show that exchange rate has a positive and significant long-run effect on stock markets while the inflation has a negative and insignificant long-run effect. In the short run, there is no statistically significant relationship between macroeconomic variables and stock markets. This study emphasizes the impact of macroeconomic variables on the stock market performance of a developing economy (India and China) and developed economy (Japan).

scholarly journals Panel Econometric Analysis on Mobile Payment Transactions and Traditional Banks Effort toward Financial Accessibility in Sub-Sahara Africa

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 895 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cephas Paa Kwasi Coffie ◽  
Hongjiang Zhao ◽  
Isaac Adjei Mensah
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Panel Cointegration ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Sustainable Growth ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Mobile Payment ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Mobile Payments ◽  
Long Run

The financial landscape of sub-Sahara Africa is undergoing major changes due to the advent of FinTech, which has seen mobile payments boom in the region. This paper examines the salient role of mobile payments in traditional banks’ drive toward financial accessibility in sub-Sahara Africa by using panel econometric approaches that consider the issues of independencies among cross-sectional residuals. Using data from the World Development Index (WDI) 2011–2017 on 11 countries in the region, empirical results from cross-sectional dependence (CD) tests, panel unit root test, panel cointegration test, and the fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) approach indicates that (i) the panel time series data are cross-sectionally independent, (ii) the variables have the same order of integration and are cointegrated, and (iii) growth in mobile payment transactions had a significant positive relationship with formal account ownership, the number of ATMs, and number of new bank branches in the long-run. The paper therefore confirms that the institutional structure of traditional banks that makes them competitive, irrespective of emerging disruptive technologies, has stimulated overall financial accessibility in the region leading to overall sustainable growth in the financial sector. We conclude the paper with feasible policy suggestions.

Export-led Growth Hypothesis: Econometric Evidence from Malaysia

2013 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 94-112
Author(s):  
Hassanudin Mohd Thas Thaker ◽  
Tan Siew Ee ◽  
Sushant Vaidik
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Paper Cover ◽  
Econometric Evidence ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
Growth Hypothesis

The objective of this paper is to test the validity of the Export-led Growth Hypothesis (ELGH) in the Malaysian economy. Malaysia has always been considered to have attained its growth primarily through exports (Okposin, Bassey, Hamid, Halim, and Boon, 1999; Mun, 2008; Mahathir, 1990). In the past, several studies on this topic have been conducted but their analyses were limited to relationships using Bound-testing, Autoregressive –Distributed Lag (ARDL) and the Toda Yamamoto analysis. Empirical data and analysis in our paper cover a 21 – year span and quarterly time-series data (1991:Q1 – 2012:Q4) are used to test this ELG hypothesis. Also, many dynamic econometric measures including the Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and Phillip – Perron (PP) unit root tests, Cointegration test as well as the Vector Error Correction model (VEC) for the long run have been applied. Based on these generic models, both real exports and capital stock (productivity) are found to have stimulated positive adjustments to economic growth in the long run whereas real exchange rate is found to have influenced economic growth negatively. Overall, our conclusion is that the ELG hypothesis seems applicable to Malaysia in the long run.

scholarly journals The Nexus between Export and Economic Growth in Tanzania

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. p95
Author(s):  
Romanus L. Dimoso (PhD, Economics) ◽  
UTONGA, Dickson (MSc. Economics)
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Test Results ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
The Government ◽  
Econometrics Analysis

This study explored the causal relationship between exports and economic growth in Tanzania. It analyzed time series data for the period of 1980 to 2015. Economic growth is measured in terms of growth per cent while exports are measured in percentage change of goods and services sold abroad. Econometrics analysis was employed in the due course. Such procedures as testing for the presence of unit root, co-integration and causality were done. Furthermore, the Johansen co-integration and Granger causality tests were employed to examine the long-run relationship among variables. The results of co-integration indicate the existence of one co-integrating equation. The causality test results exhibited causality which runs from economic growth to exports. The results conclude that, in the long run, there is a relationship between exports and economic growth in Tanzania. This study recommends the Government to make efforts to improve exports and eventually, in the long-run, rejuvenating the economy.

scholarly journals Islamic Finance and Economic Growth Nexus: An Econometric Analysis

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 11-22
Author(s):  
Kashif Raza ◽  
Rashid Ahmad ◽  
Muhammad Abdul Rehman Shah ◽  
Muhammad Umar
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Islamic Finance ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Economic Agents ◽  
Fixed Capital Formation

Researchers have written chain of research papers about the dynamics of financial development and economic growth. The financial capital plays a productive role when it delivers to economic agents who are facing shortage or excess of funds.  This study explores the linkages among Islamic financing and economic growth for Pakistan, by using annual time series data from 2005-2018. Islamic banks’ financing funds used as a proxy of Islamic financing, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF), labor force (LF),Broad money(M) and Trade openness (TO) to presents real sector of an economy. For the exploration, the unit root test, Ordinary least square technique and Granger causality test are applied. The results validate a substantial causal relationship of Islamic financing and GDP, which supports the Schumpeter’s supply-leading view. The results indicate that Islamic finance contributed towards economic growth.  

A Sectoral Analysis of the Role of Stock Market Development on Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Indian Economy

2017 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 911-923 ◽  
Author(s):  
Madhu Sehrawat ◽  
A.K. Giri
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

The present study examines the relationship between Indian stock market and economic growth from a sectoral perspective using quarterly time-series data from 2003:Q4 to 2014:Q4. The results of the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach bounds test confirm the existence of a cointegrating relationship between sector-specific gross domestic product (GDP) and sector-specific stock indices. The empirical results reveal that sector-specific economic growth are significantly influenced by changes in the respective sector-specific stock price indices in the long run as well as in the short run. Apart from that, the control variables, such as trade openness and inflation, act as the instrument variables in explaining the variations in the sector-specific GDP of the economy. The results of Granger causality test demonstrate unidirectional long-run as well as short-run causality running from sector specific stock prices to respective sector GDP. The findings suggest that economic growth of the country is sensitive to respective sub-sector stock market investments. The findings highlight the reasons for cyclical and counter-cyclical business phase for the overall economy.

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