scholarly journals Predicting Inflation Component Drivers in Nigeria: A Stacked Ensemble Approach

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emmanuel Akande ◽  
Elijah Akanni ◽  
Oyedamola F. Taiwo ◽  
Jeremiah D. Joshua ◽  
Abel Anthony
Keyword(s):  
Learning Algorithm ◽  
Predictive Ability ◽  
Policy Intervention ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithm ◽  
Ensemble Approach ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
Higher Weights ◽  
Successful Control ◽  
Base Learner ◽  
Food Inflation

Abstract Our study examined the disaggregation of inflation components in Nigeria using the stacked ensemble approach, a machine learning algorithm capable of compensating the weakness of a base learner with the strength of another. This approach gives flexibility of a synergistic performance of stacking each base learner and produces a formidable model that yields the highest level of accuracy and best predictive ability. We analyzed the test data, out-of-sample, and our results show a strong accuracy in predicting inflation. Our results further show that food CPI is the most important driver for headline, urban, and rural inflation while bread and cereals is the most important driver for food inflation. However, biscuits, agric rice, garri white are among the top main drivers of bread and cereal inflation. We note that some CPI items that mostly drive inflation have lower weights while others have higher weights therefore, focusing entirely on CPI weights as a policy guide will stymied a successful control of inflation in Nigeria. In addition, ignoring CPI items with lower weights in policy intervention will make inflation difficult to control. Above all, adequate trace of the source of inflation to the least sub-component of each component will help address or formulates an appropriate policy to confront inflation problems in Nigeria.JEL: C53, E37

scholarly journals Corporate distress prediction using random forest and tree net for india

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Arvind Shrivastava ◽  
Nitin Kumar ◽  
Kuldeep Kumar ◽  
Sanjeev Gupta
Keyword(s):  
Random Forest ◽  
Learning Algorithm ◽  
Predictive Performance ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithm ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Data Mining Tool ◽  
Distress Prediction ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
Mining Tool ◽  
Corporate Distress

The paper deals with the Random Forest, a popular classification machine learning algorithm to predict bankruptcy (distress) for Indian firms. Random Forest orders firms according to their propensity to default or their likelihood to become distressed. This is also useful to explain the association between the tendency of firm failure and its features. The results are analyzed vis-à-vis Tree Net. Both in-sample and out of sample estimations have been performed to compare Random Forest with Tree Net, which is a cutting edge data mining tool known to provide satisfactory estimation results. An exhaustive data set comprising companies from varied sectors have been included in the analysis. It is found that Tree Net procedure provides improved classification and predictive performance vis-à-vis Random Forest methodology consistently that may be utilized further by industry analysts and researchers alike for predictive purposes.

scholarly journals An Entropy-Based Machine Learning Algorithm for Combining Macroeconomic Forecasts

Entropy ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 21 (10) ◽  
pp. 1015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carles Bretó ◽  
Priscila Espinosa ◽  
Penélope Hernández ◽  
Jose M. Pavía
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Maximum Entropy ◽  
Simulation Study ◽  
Learning Algorithm ◽  
Predictive Ability ◽  
Learning Approach ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithm ◽  
Machine Learning Approach ◽  
Maximum Entropy Inference

This paper applies a Machine Learning approach with the aim of providing a single aggregated prediction from a set of individual predictions. Departing from the well-known maximum-entropy inference methodology, a new factor capturing the distance between the true and the estimated aggregated predictions presents a new problem. Algorithms such as ridge, lasso or elastic net help in finding a new methodology to tackle this issue. We carry out a simulation study to evaluate the performance of such a procedure and apply it in order to forecast and measure predictive ability using a dataset of predictions on Spanish gross domestic product.

Machine Learning Algorithm to Predict Early Complications after Brain Tumor Surgery

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
C.H.B. van Niftrik ◽  
F. van der Wouden ◽  
V. Staartjes ◽  
J. Fierstra ◽  
M. Stienen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Brain Tumor ◽  
Learning Algorithm ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithm ◽  
Tumor Surgery ◽  
Early Complications ◽  
Brain Tumor Surgery

Feature extraction and prediction of Dengue Outbreaks

2020 ◽  
pp. 216-222
Author(s):  
Kunal Parikh ◽  
Tanvi Makadia ◽  
Harshil Patel
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Machine Learning ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Feature Extraction ◽  
Predictive Analytics ◽  
Learning Algorithm ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithm ◽  
Health Concerns ◽  
The World ◽  
Dengue Outbreaks

Dengue is unquestionably one of the biggest health concerns in India and for many other developing countries. Unfortunately, many people have lost their lives because of it. Every year, approximately 390 million dengue infections occur around the world among which 500,000 people are seriously infected and 25,000 people have died annually. Many factors could cause dengue such as temperature, humidity, precipitation, inadequate public health, and many others. In this paper, we are proposing a method to perform predictive analytics on dengue’s dataset using KNN: a machine-learning algorithm. This analysis would help in the prediction of future cases and we could save the lives of many.

SMART IDENTIFICATION OF POWER QUALITY EVENTS USING NEW STOCKWELL TRANSFORM AND MACHINE LEARNING ALGORITHM

2019 ◽  
Vol XVI (4) ◽  
pp. 95-113
Author(s):  
Muhammad Tariq ◽  
Tahir Mehmood
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Power Quality ◽  
Learning Algorithm ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithm ◽  
Noisy Environments ◽  
Satisfactory Performance ◽  
Feature Values ◽  
Learning Machine ◽  
Stockwell Transform ◽  
Electrical Utilities

Accurate detection, classification and mitigation of power quality (PQ) distortive events are of utmost importance for electrical utilities and corporations. An integrated mechanism is proposed in this paper for the identification of PQ distortive events. The proposed features are extracted from the waveforms of the distortive events using modified form of Stockwell’s transform. The categories of the distortive events were determined based on these feature values by applying extreme learning machine as an intelligent classifier. The proposed methodology was tested under the influence of both the noisy and noiseless environments on a database of seven thousand five hundred simulated waveforms of distortive events which classify fifteen types of PQ events such as impulses, interruptions, sags and swells, notches, oscillatory transients, harmonics, and flickering as single stage events with their possible integrations. The results of the analysis indicated satisfactory performance of the proposed method in terms of accuracy in classifying the events in addition to its reduced sensitivity under various noisy environments.

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