Monsoonal rainfall characteristics in the context of climate adaptation planning for rain-fed agriculture in the Sudano-Sahelian area of Northwestern Nigeria
Abstract This study was aimed at assessing monsoonal rainfall real onset dates (RODs), real cessation dates (RCDs) and extent of association between cumulative rainfall (CR) and length of growing season (LGS) in the context of climate adaptation planning for sustainable rain-fed agriculture in the Sudano-Sahelian area of Northwestern Nigeria. Daily rainfall data of four stations purposively selected namely: Gusau, Kano, Katsina and Sokoto for the period 1981–2018 were collected from Nigerian Meteorological Agency. The data were analyzed and the Intra-seasonal Rainfall Monitoring Index (IRMI) was generated. IRMI was used in determining the RODs and RCDs of rainfall and LGS and CR. The Mann–Kendall test was used to detect trends in rainfall characteristics. Findings revealed that RODs, unlike RCDs of rainfall in the study area, show extensive variations from one station to another. There is a very low correlation (0.07 coefficient) between latitudes and early onsets (EOs). There is however a strong positive correlation (0.8 coefficient) between meridians and EOs of rains. Late onsets (LOs) recognize latitudinal differences to the extent that there is strong positive correlation (0.7 coefficient) between lines of parallels and LOs of rains. The three types of onsets interchanged with one another annually without a clear trend in the RODs and RCDs phases. We conclude that non-definite trends in RODs and RCDs pose a strong challenge to long term adaptation planning. The recommendations of the study are geared towards enhancing climate change adaptation in the context of complicated rainfall characteristics of the study area.