The costs of keeping schools open during the COVID-19 pandemic
Abstract There is a trade-off between restrictions on the education sector and other economic sectors in the control of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Here we integrate a dynamic model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission with a 63-sector economic model reflecting sectoral heterogeneity in transmission and economic interdependence between sectors. We identify control strategies which optimize economic production while keeping schools and universities operational, and constraining infections such that emergency hospital capacity is not exceeded. We estimate an economic gain of between £163bn (24%) and £205bn (31%) for the United Kingdom compared to a blanket lockdown of non-essential activities over six months, depending on hospital capacity. Sectors identified as priorities for closures are contact-intensive, produce few crucial inputs for other sectors and/or are less economically productive. Partial closures over some months are required for retail trade, hospitality, accommodation, creative activities, arts, entertainment, and personal services including hairdressing and beauty treatments under most scenarios.