scholarly journals Modeling Risk Factors Associated With Time to Pregnancy Termination in Ethiopia: Application of Frailty Models

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aboma Temesgen Sebu

Abstract Background: Pregnancy termination commonly known as abortion is the preventable causes for the maternal mortality worldwide that largely forgotten. About 45 % of these pregnancy terminations are unsafe causing death of more than 22,000 women every year and remains major public health problems in developing countries including Ethiopia. This study was also aimed to model and investigate risk factors associated with time to pregnancy termination in Ethiopia by applying survival model considering the clustering effects.Methods: The study considered 15,683 reproductive age group women from 2016 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey data. Kaplan-Meier(KM) was employed to estimate the survival curve and this estimated KM survival curve estimated for different groups were tested based on log rank test. To come up with appropriate model for the time to pregnancy termination and the associated risk factors both semi-parametric and parametric survival model with no frailty effects as wells as with shared frailty effects which handles random effects were employed and compared based AIC and BIC of the fitted models.Results: The result of the study showed generalized gamma and lognormal survival models were appropriate models compared with semi-parametric and other candidate parametric models.Fitting these survival model with frailty showed the improvement of the models which was an indication for the presence of unobservable random effects in clusters. Regarding the frailty models comparison, log normal with gamma frailty model was considered as appropriate model for fitting time to pregnancy termination model in Ethiopia compared with other candidate frailty models. Furthermore, the selected frailty model result showed that age of women, ever trying to avoid pregnancy, contraceptive method use, age at first sex, total number of children ever born and place of residence were the identified risk factors for the time to pregnancy termination at 5% level of significance.Conclusions: Based on the finding of this study, starting sex at early age, residing urban areas, having lower number of children, being in married marital status group, chewing chat and do not using contraceptive methods were the risk factors that results pregnancy termination at early age that needs serious consideration to prevent the problem in Ethiopia.

2010 ◽  
Vol 43 (4) ◽  
pp. 452-454 ◽  
Author(s):  
Felipe Francisco Tuon ◽  
Leila Carolina Bianchet ◽  
Sergio Ricardo Penteado-Filho

INTRODUCTION: Enterobacter can be included in the group of extended spectrum β-lactamases (EBSL)-producing bacteria, though few studies exist evaluating risk factors associated with this microorganism. A retrospective cohort study was conducted to determine risk factors associated with ESBL-producing-Enterobacter and mortality METHODS: A retrospective cohort study with 58 bacteremia caused by ESBL-producing-Enterobacter (28 cases) and non-ESBL (30 cases) RESULTS: Risk factors associated with ESBL-Enterobacter were trauma, length of hospitalization, admission to the intensive care unit, urinary catheter and elective surgery (p< 0.05). The survival curves were similar for ESBL and non-ESBL CONCLUSIONS: ESBL-producing-Enterobacter bacteremia is prevalent and the survival curve was similar to non-ESBL-producing strains.


Author(s):  
Tshaudi Motsima

Reducing adolescent childbearing has been a global priority since the 1994 International Conference on Population and Development. Age of a woman at first birth is significant in her life because motherhood involves a substantial commitment of time and resources, and it tends to set the stage within which other roles are assumed. There are consequences related to early age at first birth for both the mothers and the children. Data and Methods: The data used for analysis came from the 2015-2016 MIHS of Angola which was its first DHS. The 2015-2016 Angolan MIHS collected information from 14 379 women aged 15-49 years from 16 109 households. Women were asked questions around ages at which they gave births to their children. The Tarone-Ware test was used to test the equality of the survival functions. The Cox PH model was used to determine the factors that were associated with early age at first birth. Results and Conclusion: Results revealed that women who had their sexual intercourse at a young age (HR = 4.66; p < 0.001), women who never had a termination of pregnancy (HR = 1.22; p < 0.001), women who were never married (HR = 1.19; p < 0.001), women with no education (HR = 3.22; p < 0.001), women with primary education (HR = 5.08; p < 0.001), women with secondary education (HR = 5.06, p < 0.001), women of Christian religion (HR = 1.10; p = 0.035) and women who resided in informal houses (HR = 1.30; p < 0.001) were significantly associated with the risk of early age at first birth.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Woldemariam Erkalo Gobena

Abstract Background: Premarital cohabitation is defined as the state of living together and having a sexual relationship without being married. It has become more prevalent globally in recent decades. The main objective of this study was modeling the potential risk factors of time-to-premarital cohabitation among women of Ethiopia by using parametric shared frailty models where regional states of the women were used as a clustering effect in the models.Methods: The data source for the analysis was the 2016 EDHS data. The Gamma and Inverse-Gaussian shared frailty distributions with Exponential, Weibull, Log-logistic and Lognormal baseline models were employed to analyze risk factors associated with age at premarital cohabitation. All the fitted models were compared by using AIC values.Results: The median age of women at premarital cohabitation was 18 years. Based on AIC values, Log-logistic-Gamma shared frailty model has smallest AIC value among the models compared. The clustering effect was significant for modeling the determinants of time-to-premarital cohabitation dataset. The results showed that women’s education status, occupation, pregnancy and place of residence were found to be the most significant determinants of age at premarital cohabitation whereas wealth status and religion were not significant at 5% level.Conclusions: The Log-logistic-Gamma shared frailty model described the premarital cohabitation dataset better than other distributions used in this study. There is heterogeneity between the regions of women. Further studies should be conducted to identify other factors of age at premarital cohabitation of women in Ethiopia that were not included in this study.


2019 ◽  
Vol 81 (1) ◽  
pp. 95-99 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hiroaki OKAWA ◽  
Akira GOTO ◽  
Missaka M.P. WIJAYAGUNAWARDANE ◽  
Peter L.A.M. VOS ◽  
Osamu YAMATO ◽  
...  

2017 ◽  
Vol 27 (2) ◽  
pp. 189
Author(s):  
Cibelle Kayenne Martins Roberto Formiga ◽  
Martina Estevam Brom Vieira ◽  
Rayne Ramos Facundes ◽  
Maria Beatriz Martins Linhares

Introduction: Preterm infants are vulnerable to developmental delays. Detecting problems at an early age is one of the challenges of professionals and researchers in the area.Objectives: To analyse the motor development and to identify the risk factors associated with predictors of overall and motor delay in preterm newborns.Methods: Eighty preterm infants (50% female; mean gestational age = 33 ± 2.2 weeks) with low birth weight (average of 1,715 ± 437 g) were evaluated using the Neurobehavioral Assessment of the Preterm Infant (NAPI) during the neonatal phase (prior to term age), the Denver Developmental Screening Test II (DDST-II) between 2 and 8 months, the Test of Infant Motor Performance between 2 and 4 months regarding motor development and the Alberta Infant Motor Scale between 4 and 8 months. Results: Neurobehavioural delay was noted in 24% of the infants in the neonatal phase. Between 2 and 8 months, the delay in overall development was ≥ 31% and the delay in motor development was 35–36 %. Decreased levels of alertness, orientation, motor developmentand vigouraccording to theNAPIwereshown to be predictive of a delay indevelopment between4 and 6 months of age.The delayin overall development between 2 and 6 months was predictive of a delay in motor development between6 and 8months. Conclusion: Neurobehavioural variables, hospital stayandoverall delayare goodpredictorsof motor developmentduring the first yearof age.


2014 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ariel M. Barber ◽  
Alexandra Crouch ◽  
Stephen Campbell

1990 ◽  
Vol 63 (01) ◽  
pp. 013-015 ◽  
Author(s):  
E J Johnson ◽  
C R M Prentice ◽  
L A Parapia

SummaryAntithrombin III (ATIII) deficiency is one of the few known abnormalities of the coagulation system known to predispose to venous thromboembolism but its relation to arterial disease is not established. We describe two related patients with this disorder, both of whom suffered arterial thrombotic events, at an early age. Both patients had other potential risk factors, though these would normally be considered unlikely to lead to such catastrophic events at such an age. Thrombosis due to ATIII deficiency is potentially preventable, and this diagnosis should be sought more frequently in patients with arterial thromboembolism, particularly if occurring at a young age. In addition, in patients with known ATIII deficiency, other risk factors for arterial disease should be eliminated, if possible. In particular, these patients should be counselled against smoking.


1992 ◽  
Vol 68 (03) ◽  
pp. 261-263 ◽  
Author(s):  
A K Banerjee ◽  
J Pearson ◽  
E L Gilliland ◽  
D Goss ◽  
J D Lewis ◽  
...  

SummaryA total of 333 patients with stable intermittent claudication at recruitment were followed up for 6 years to determine risk factors associated with subsequent mortality. Cardiovascular diseases were the underlying cause of death in 78% of the 114 patients who died. The strongest independent predictor of death during the follow-up period was the plasma fibrinogen level, an increase of 1 g/l being associated with a nearly two-fold increase in the probability of death within the next 6 years. Age, low ankle/brachial pressure index and a past history of myocardial infarction also increased the probability of death during the study period. The plasma fibrinogen level is a valuable index of those patients with stable intermittent claudication at high risk of early mortality. The results also provide further evidence for the involvement of fibrinogen in the pathogenesis of arterial disease.


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